Coronavirus

[CU77]

I have been saying for 2 months that the real proof of how much progress we have made won’t be until next fall. The Summer could be a mirage much like last Summer. If we don’t get a big bounce next fall, we will be on the road to recovery.

this is interesting. are you short vaccine effectiveness (long term as it hasn't been determined)? immunity for infection? vaccine acceptance? long mutation?

He's not short or long anything, he's stating what signal will be needed to collect on either a long or short bet.

[a fan]

Vaccinations won’t help us this month or the next. We don’t have enough vaccine, and we won’t have enough until June or July. However, we might see deaths across the U.S. decline earlier than that if we vaccinate the elderly first.

There it is. Now how much GDP (and lives) did we lose by not going all-in, WWII-style, on Vaccine production capacity?

And how much GDP (and lives) will we lose for the NEXT pandemic if we don't build these facilities?

[Typical Lax Dad]

I have been saying for 2 months that the real proof of how much progress we have made won’t be until next fall. The Summer could be a mirage much like last Summer. If we don’t get a big bounce next fall, we will be on the road to recovery.

this is interesting. are you short vaccine effectiveness (long term as it hasn't been determined)? immunity for infection? vaccine acceptance? long mutation?

No. I believe the vaccine will be effective but may not really know until the fall how effective the rollout has been. May get into late Spring and folks thinking they don’t need to be vaccinated as the numbers may be down (i.e. spitballing).

[wgdsr]

I have been saying for 2 months that the real proof of how much progress we have made won’t be until next fall. The Summer could be a mirage much like last Summer. If we don’t get a big bounce next fall, we will be on the road to recovery.

this is interesting. are you short vaccine effectiveness (long term as it hasn't been determined)? immunity for infection? vaccine acceptance? long mutation?

He's not short or long anything, he's stating what signal will be needed to collect on either a long or short bet.

behind that statement is a spitball on what may be needed or he might guess happens to collect on either bet (above). which is what i was asking.

[wgdsr]

Ahhhh, I see. So what you’re actually saying is it’s all a hoax

Kidding.

haha. small size example... maine has been doing quite overall. thru october barely had a few days over 40 cases on a 7 day average and mostly well below that, and on only 1 day more than 2 deaths on a 7 day average.
then november rolls around and cases start increasing. they take a long break on holiday reporting for thanksgiving and then several days later a big death number.
come december/january, now they're up to 500 cases a day. deaths are following suit, but averaged only about 5/day over the last several weeks. they had only 385 deaths thru the entire pandemic up until yesterday. today they popped 41, over 10% of their previous total. their 7 day average will double (i think) to over 10.

[Typical Lax Dad]

I have been saying for 2 months that the real proof of how much progress we have made won’t be until next fall. The Summer could be a mirage much like last Summer. If we don’t get a big bounce next fall, we will be on the road to recovery.

this is interesting. are you short vaccine effectiveness (long term as it hasn't been determined)? immunity for infection? vaccine acceptance? long mutation?

He's not short or long anything, he's stating what signal will be needed to collect on either a long or short bet.

behind that statement is a spitball on what may be needed or he might guess happens to collect on either bet (above). which is what i was asking.

I really hadn’t thought much about it. I was more focused on how we would get a sense for the coast being clear. CU77 summed it up. I thought in may, we would see a big spike in October because I figured the virus would be more dispersed before we realized the problem. I don’t have an opinion whether it will be behind us. I can only say I expect some progress to be demonstrated next fall but it’s a matter of how much. I would be shocked if its worse.

[wgdsr]

I have been saying for 2 months that the real proof of how much progress we have made won’t be until next fall. The Summer could be a mirage much like last Summer. If we don’t get a big bounce next fall, we will be on the road to recovery.

this is interesting. are you short vaccine effectiveness (long term as it hasn't been determined)? immunity for infection? vaccine acceptance? long mutation?

He's not short or long anything, he's stating what signal will be needed to collect on either a long or short bet.

behind that statement is a spitball on what may be needed or he might guess happens to collect on either bet (above). which is what i was asking.

I really hadn’t thought much about it. I was more focused on how we would get a sense for the coast being clear. CU77 summed it up. I thought in may, we would see a big spike in October because I figured the virus would be more dispersed before we realized the problem. I don’t have an opinion whether it will be behind us. I can only say expert some progress to be demonstrated next fall but it’s a matter of how much. I would be shocked if its worse.

hmmm. we're looking at:
vaxx distribution, evolving guidance, acceptance, production (a fan's fave) and effectiveness. and add ons (new approvals, dpa). and how that all then affects transmissibility.

so far, what would the grades be?
distribution - f
guidance - gentleman's c, prolly d
acceptance - f
production - d out of the gate

so - a lot of potential? the dreaded p word.

[Typical Lax Dad]

I have been saying for 2 months that the real proof of how much progress we have made won’t be until next fall. The Summer could be a mirage much like last Summer. If we don’t get a big bounce next fall, we will be on the road to recovery.

this is interesting. are you short vaccine effectiveness (long term as it hasn't been determined)? immunity for infection? vaccine acceptance? long mutation?

He's not short or long anything, he's stating what signal will be needed to collect on either a long or short bet.

behind that statement is a spitball on what may be needed or he might guess happens to collect on either bet (above). which is what i was asking.

I really hadn’t thought much about it. I was more focused on how we would get a sense for the coast being clear. CU77 summed it up. I thought in may, we would see a big spike in October because I figured the virus would be more dispersed before we realized the problem. I don’t have an opinion whether it will be behind us. I can only say expert some progress to be demonstrated next fall but it’s a matter of how much. I would be shocked if its worse.

hmmm. we're looking at:
vaxx distribution, evolving guidance, acceptance, production (a fan's fave) and effectiveness. and add ons (new approvals, dpa). and how that all then affects transmissibility.

so far, what would the grades be?
distribution - f
guidance - gentleman's c, prolly d
acceptance - f
production - d out of the gate

so - a lot of potential? the dreaded p word.

We will see if there is less spread in the fall. Hopefully all of those things are successful as doing nothing doesn’t seem like a choice. If anyone has any other good suggestions, I hope officials listen.

[holmes435]

It's been 3.5 days after getting the vaccine. Only side effect I had was similar to most flu shots I get - soreness in the upper arm around the injection site for a couple of days. ~70 year old FIL got it yesterday, he felt a little out of it / slightly buzzed for an hour or so yesterday evening, but it cleared up.

[youthathletics]

It's been 3.5 days after getting the vaccine. Only side effect I had was similar to most flu shots I get - soreness in the upper arm around the injection site for a couple of days. ~70 year old FIL got it yesterday, he felt a little out of it / slightly buzzed for an hour or so yesterday evening, but it cleared up.

Good news, appreciate you sharing that with us.

[Bart]

It's been 3.5 days after getting the vaccine. Only side effect I had was similar to most flu shots I get - soreness in the upper arm around the injection site for a couple of days. ~70 year old FIL got it yesterday, he felt a little out of it / slightly buzzed for an hour or so yesterday evening, but it cleared up.

That's great. My Sister in law got her second dose yesterday but it is the pfizer variety. She said her side effects were a bit more intense this time around. Both arms are sore and a head ache. Colleagues of hers had a range of side effects with the second dose the worst were head aches for 16-24 hrs and body malaise and aches. So far she is dealing with a low grade head ache. I hope that is as bad as it gets.

I will be interested to see if the Moderna version has the same second dose side effect. I'll see first hand in a week as someone close to me gets er second dose. Fingers crossed it is a nothing burger.

[MDlaxfan76]

Bump.

Let's use this thread going forward.

[Typical Lax Dad]

It's been 3.5 days after getting the vaccine. Only side effect I had was similar to most flu shots I get - soreness in the upper arm around the injection site for a couple of days. ~70 year old FIL got it yesterday, he felt a little out of it / slightly buzzed for an hour or so yesterday evening, but it cleared up.

That's great. My Sister in law got her second dose yesterday but it is the pfizer variety. She said her side effects were a bit more intense this time around. Both arms are sore and a head ache. Colleagues of hers had a range of side effects with the second dose the worst were head aches for 16-24 hrs and body malaise and aches. So far she is dealing with a low grade head ache. I hope that is as bad as it gets.

I will be interested to see if the Moderna version has the same second dose side effect. I'll see first hand in a week as someone close to me gets er second dose. Fingers crossed it is a nothing burger.

Thanks. I am hoping roll out gets ramped up.

[jhu72]

Wife got the Moderna (1st shot) two weeks ago. Very mild reaction. Sore arm at injection site. A little malaise for 12 hours. No biggie. Now know 3 people who have gotten the shot (all female healthcare workers), pretty much the same story Pfizer and Moderna.

The more interesting story is how each came by getting their shots. One (a technologist) received Pfizer within week of first release, works for a major Maryland public hospital in Baltimore; my wife expected to receive hers at about the same time (Pfizer), but plans canceled due to unclear policies and distribution problems in Maryland (works for one of the nations largest HMOs as a primary care physician in a large MTF in Baltimore County), a month later her organization came into a sufficient supply in their Northern Virginia MTF, she and her co-workers took the opportunity to receive the Moderna (out of Virginia State allocation). The 3rd is a nurse in a mid-sized for profit Hospital in eastern Baltimore County, she received her shot this past Monday.

I expect to receive mine as a member of the HMO my wife works for in the next 2 to 4 weeks. The HMO should open up vaccinations to Maryland members in a couple weeks I am told.

If it sounds confusing, it is only because it is. Things have been pretty strange as to how healthcare workers are scheduled in the State of Maryland.

[cradleandshoot]

It's been 3.5 days after getting the vaccine. Only side effect I had was similar to most flu shots I get - soreness in the upper arm around the injection site for a couple of days. ~70 year old FIL got it yesterday, he felt a little out of it / slightly buzzed for an hour or so yesterday evening, but it cleared up.

My wife received her shot a few days ago. What you described is exactly what she felt. It was a piece of cake.

[a fan]

The Feds are delivering the vaccine to where the states say they want it. How would you have administered the vaccinations ? Create a national health system from scratch ?

Not a national health system-----a national vaccination system. It's why I brought this up last summer.....we had six months to get our *hit together. We didn't do anything with that precious time.

We blow TRILLIONS on defense, and you're telling me that in a National Defense Emergency, we can't figure out how to set up a system to stick a needle in a few million arms in six months? We're going to lose half a million citizens to this stupid virus, and we're still behaving like this is just a bad flu season.

The only viable option is to work through state & local health depts, building on their vacc clinics, health care providers & pharmacies. State & local govts know best what's available in their jurisdiction.

That's what we chose to do, yes. And like I said, we're going to add six months to this pandemic because the sense of urgency and leadership we had in WWII has left the building. We are LESS capable as a nation in 2020. We were better as a nation using clipboards and pencils in the 1940's to manage production and distribution, than we are with exponentially powerful computing that should make mincemeat out of logistics problems.

Frustrated.

[MDlaxfan76]

The Feds are delivering the vaccine to where the states say they want it. How would you have administered the vaccinations ? Create a national health system from scratch ?

Not a national health system-----a national vaccination system. It's why I brought this up last summer.....we had six months to get our *hit together. We didn't do anything with that precious time.

We blow TRILLIONS on defense, and you're telling me that in a National Defense Emergency, we can't figure out how to set up a system to stick a needle in a few million arms in six months? We're going to lose half a million citizens to this stupid virus, and we're still behaving like this is just a bad flu season.

The only viable option is to work through state & local health depts, building on their vacc clinics, health care providers & pharmacies. State & local govts know best what's available in their jurisdiction.

That's what we chose to do, yes. And like I said, we're going to add six months to this pandemic because the sense of urgency and leadership we had in WWII has left the building. We are LESS capable as a nation in 2020. We were better as a nation using clipboards and pencils in the 1940's to manage production and distribution, than we are with exponentially powerful computing that should make mincemeat out of logistics problems.

Frustrated.

+1

[MDlaxfan76]

bump

[MDlaxfan76]

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
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Post by wgdsr » Sat Jan 09, 2021 1:08 pm

jhu72 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 12:35 pm
wgdsr wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:30 am
jhu72 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 9:56 am
youthathletics wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 9:48 am
jhu72 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 9:43 am
What a shirt show.
Goodness. Where is Fauci when we need him?
This just makes all of them all look stupid. Until it is known for certain, this should not be speculated on publically by government officials.
meh. in this pandemic, we've taken a lot of action based on speculation and best guesses. this doesn't even look like any kind of call to action.

more to the point of the story, it says all she did herself was bring up the possibility in a meeting. the way it's written, it looks like the report probably wasn't authored, sent or edited by her. maybe the whole task force signed off on it, or maybe it was a rogue.

i know you didn't specifically single her out, but looks like folks are quick to toss her under the bus.

edit: oops. didn't see your last post.
.. these folks had a trust problem before, this does nothing to help and can only hurt - basically for nothing. Just stupid to air it in public.
ok. and i refer to my post above.
- she brought up the possibility in a meeting
- we don't know the backstory on the release, who put together
- the report supposedly said may
- a cdc spokesman in the article is quoted as saying we might not know for months. saying might is a real problem?

whoever was pushing out sounds like they didn't care to take in cdc input. so cdc counters and the states get their take as well.

not really helpful, but as i said, a non-event. i don't get the knives for birx, but hey.

if we saw the full report, we might have more to judge by. did they give other possibilities with or without full evidence? cold weather and reasons why cold weather, etc.?

[MDlaxfan76]

fair response, IMO,

But Birx has disgraced herself, unfortunately, so tougher to give her the benefit of the doubt anymore.