LaxPower Back-Up Stick

The enthusiasm is genuine; there is a lot to be thankful for
however the memories of JL are still a little fresh and raw . I will not deny he had moments of coaching brilliance; I do believe he lost sight that these KIDS are Student athletes and I believe JL subscribed to the
Bear Bryant Junction Boys mentality. As we see at Maryland football that mentality has seen its days go by the board with regards to today’s student athletes. Regarding his hire as an unpaid assistant; I hope he makes the best of it and has learned
from his vast previous experience.

All I know is Burke has the best winning percentage of any coach to hit the Hill. Hell of a running at the last 5 games. That Navy game slipped out of our hands. By a goal. Here is my PL prediction. It’s ambitious!

Lehigh
Loyola
Bucknell
Holy Cross
Army
Navy
BU
Colgate
Leopards

Love the optimism; Playoffs are attainable

Scoring goals in 2019?

If HC is going to finish 4th in the PL, as HCBosFan projects, or anywhere close to that, it needs to dramatically increase its goal scoring.

In 2018, HC was second to last in goals scored per game in Div I (6.69 g/gm). In the five seasons (over the last 15 years) when HC scored fewer than 8 g/gm, they average 2.5 wins per season. If HC doesn’t fix its goal scoring problem, they ain't gonna be 4th in the PL.

How many goals does HC need to score per game? Answer: at least 10.

In 2018, there were 28 teams that failed to score at least 10 goals per game. Only two of them, Ohio State (8.93 g/gm) and Navy (9 g/gm) finished with winning records (7%). Of the 43 teams that scored at least 10 g/gm, 31 had records of 0.500 or better (72%).

Preventing opponents from scoring is obviously important too, but the two best scoring defenses last year, UMBC (7.77) and Hofstra (7.86), both had losing records. And 8 of the 30 teams (27%) that held opponents under 10 goals per game last year finished with losing records. So, scoring 10 goals per game appears to be more highly correlated to having a winning record than preventing opponents from scoring 10. Unsurprisingly, Ohio State and Navy allowed fewer goals on average than they scored (8.6 and 8.93 respectively) in achieving their winning records.

In a related offensive stat, only 2 teams in the top 20 for shooting percentage in 2018 finished with records under 0.500. Conversely, the bottom 20 teams in shooting percentage all finished under 0.500. HC was dead last in NCAA Div I shooting percentage in 2018 (0.184). HC actually outshot its opponents last year, both in terms of shots per game (36.2 to 31.6) and shots per possession (1.17 to 1.04).

So, the number of shots wasn’t the problem for HC, it was shot selection and accuracy. The number of stick-side high meatballs launched with feet set from 15 yards out and the number of extremely low angle shots from around GLE both contributed to the problem. Those phenomena seemed to be due in part to problems at attack, where HC lacked a player who could/would consistently break down defenses and draw slides. HC was also much less effective at feeding the crease last year to generate high-quality shots at close range, something that had been the bread and butter of players like Vogel and Kirkpatrick the previous few years. In fact, it didn't look like they were even looking to the crease very often.

The five players who split time at attack last year (some of whom also saw significant minutes at midfield – 56 starts btw those 5 players) combined for only 44 goals. That’s less than 0.8 goals per starter per game. That kind of production will not win games. The attack unit needs to at least double its production in 2019. More than one player needs to step up and put the ball in the net a few times every game, with the attack unit as a whole producing 5-6 goals per game.

Who will do the scoring in 2019?

HC’s returning players accounted for 75 goals in 2018 (5.76/game). They’ll need to almost double that production this season. HC lost only 0.75 goals per game to graduation. Assuming HC plays 13 regular season games again next year, 10 goals per game is 130 for the season. Where can 130 goals reasonably be expected to come from? Here’s one way:

Realistic target for senior class is 25 goals. Babiak (16 g in ’18) is the only returning senior on offense that had a point in 2018 (Farrell, Murphy, and McKenna on defense had 4 goals btw them). Senior class needs to increase scoring by 5 goals btw them, most/all of that increase should come from Babiak, meaning he should be averaging a goal and a half per game.

Realistic target for junior class is 60 goals between Kodzis (21 in ’18), Mullaney (10 in ’18), Lynskey (11 in ’18), Waldron (3 in ’18). Increase of 15 combined goals and a total of 4.6 goals per game from the class.

Realistic target for sophomore class is 30 goals between Cahill (3 in ’18), Hart (4 in ’18), Baker (2 in ’18), and McNamera (0 in ’18). Increase of 21 goals and a total of 2.3 goals per game from the class. Kids who see significant minutes as freshman often make sizable jumps in production as sophomores, see, e.g., Kodzis (3 goals as a freshman and 21 last year), Wilkinson (1 g as frsh and 22 as soph), Terry McKenna (6 g as fresh and 24 as soph), etc.

Realistic target for freshman class is 15 goals between them, which is 1.1 per game. Last time HC had a freshman score 10 or more goals was 2014 when Lux had 20 and Buermann had 10. Haarmann had 11 in 2012. There seems to be some good talent in the freshman class, including Halesworth, Spangenberg, Morrissey, Miller, Marra.

HC was fortunate to have a good face off unit in 2018. If O’Connell and Co. can do that again in 2019, the opportunities for the offense will be there. Adjusting to the shot clock and how defenses respond to it are X factors.

Wow that is some PL prognostication. Lehigh up top is aggressive but I like it. The rest is ok, I would swap navy and army, with the obvious exception of where HC and Bucknell were 3 and 4..Leave the rest as is and move those 2 to 7 & 8 and you will be closer. Bucknell lost almost all their O firepower and their OC. A 5'th place finish would be impressive given what they lost.

HCDC thanks for the stats and yes the offense has to improve. Here is who was playing at the scrimmage. Attack Babiak, Kodzis and Spangenberg (3 goals BTW) heard Marra, freshman lefty, was sick. Middies were Mullaney, Lynskey, Cahill, Baker and Waldron, Helfrich. That would answer part of the puzzle from last years unproductive attack. Mullaney and Lynskey played well the last 5 games especially Colgate. Mullaney had a shoulder injury before the season so it took him a bit to get comfortable. He looks much better running the alley and midfield fits him. Attack was not a spot for him. I agree that Cahill and Baker should have a great year. Both of them were very good High School players and they both looked confident and shaking off the freshman shyness.
I agree with the expectations of points per class. Babiak is a very good player he should have been a 20+ scorer last year easily.

come to think of it i might have to switch Bucknell out of there and replace it with Navy. For optimism sake, I will leave it at that. Anyone else have a similar view after watching the scrimmage.

https://youtu.be/LmSuyBpe1Ao

2019 Holy Cross Commit Martin Folan's Junior Year highlights. Looks like a really great offensive LSM, he looks like a really great shooter. Also looks like he takes the ball away very easily and is good on GBs. Reminds me of some of the LSMs Brown had a few years back. Looks like he was a Boston Lax All-American and State Champ in 2018.

HCBosfan wrote:HCDC thanks for the stats and yes the offense has to improve. Here is who was playing at the scrimmage. Attack Babiak, Kodzis and Spangenberg (3 goals BTW) heard Marra, freshman lefty, was sick. Middies were Mullaney, Lynskey, Cahill, Baker and Waldron, Helfrich. That would answer part of the puzzle from last years unproductive attack. Mullaney and Lynskey played well the last 5 games especially Colgate. Mullaney had a shoulder injury before the season so it took him a bit to get comfortable. He looks much better running the alley and midfield fits him. Attack was not a spot for him. I agree that Cahill and Baker should have a great year. Both of them were very good High School players and they both looked confident and shaking off the freshman shyness.
I agree with the expectations of points per class. Babiak is a very good player he should have been a 20+ scorer last year easily.

come to think of it i might have to switch Bucknell out of there and replace it with Navy. For optimism sake, I will leave it at that. Anyone else have a similar view after watching the scrimmage.

Agree that Mullaney seemed much more comfortable and was more productive when he was playing midfield last season (and the ‘17 season). Kodzis was the most productive offensive player last year so it’s understandabke that Burke would want him on the field for every possession (hence attack), particularly in light of the impact the shot clock will likely have on the substitution game; but Kodzis also seems like more of an alley dodger than a change of direction/back to the goal/feeder type. Perhaps those skills are in his repertoire or maybe he ends up inverting a lot.

I do think O’Connell will be a big difference maker for this year. He came out of nowhere, especially spending his freshman’s year at South Carolina. Defense is still very solid and Farrell and New anchoring that. Defense too is an adjustment for freshman. I think it is a bit harder to catch up to speed in D1.

Offense scheme this year is much more fluid and geared toward speed and skill set of invdividuals. Not as plodding and ball control as prior. THere will be more offense production across the board

Inside lacrosse has Holy Cross as 26th best recruiting class right now after 2019 NLI signing day yesterday. https://www.insidelacrosse.com/recruiti ... vision+I/1#

Hey I’ll take that ranking. I am loving the white cleats they finally are wearing. Makes them run faster.

Nice to see Coach B getting it done on the recruiting trail. It would nice to remove the interem tag and get him some more $ for schollies. The top 4 are fully funded. I believe Nova and PC are as well. Here is how we rank against the PL and some other teams:

BU (15)
Army (18)
Lehigh (19)
Loyola (20)
HC (26)
Bucknell (32)
Colgate (33)
Navy (37)
Lafayette (54)

Nova (24)
Dartmouth (34)
PC (38)

Only to have 2 or 3 scholarship dollars says a lot about the recruiting. Great school and the facilities are probably one of the best in the Northeast. If you have not seen downtown Worcester lately its making a big turn. New hotels and restaurants are making it more appealing.

BU, Lehigh and Army will be better than last year. Bucknell will drop significantly, they graduated 4 Pro draft picks. Loyola and Navy will be good. Colgate and HC ????? Lafayette is a work in progress and at least a few years away. If HC can get to number 5 or 6 that would be an accomplishment.

BU, should be, but they struggled to just get in last year. Fully funded program smack dab in one of the best college cities in the country. They seem to lose commitments just before signing. Lehigh is tough. Not sure on Army but we played them well last year as well as Navy.

Good fall ball regimen. Should carry over into January. It will be tough road but some teams will be blinded sided against us I believe

66, what are you seeing for the offensive scheme coming in 2019. You seem pleased with the fall ball.

Definitely more uptempo. Shot clock and re-allocation of offensive players to different roles in the system hopefully injects more speed and creativity. Needed changes to slow plodding style that only produced 6 goals per game last year.

I believe the face off game will help with our offense as well.
With OC winning a majority of his face offs ; and having the green light to shoot
we will have a dual threat situation. The fast break we never had last year
and what in effect what will be an 80 second shot clock which is over our average time of possession even with last years
Plodding offense .