ANALYSIS
What now? Here’s what Trump’s conviction means for the election.
By James Pindell Globe Staff, May 30, 2024
Former president Donald Trump’s conviction on all 34 charges in a Manhattan courtroom was watched around the globe not just for the historic novelty of it all, but also for the potential implications for the presidential race, just over five months away.
Here is the bottom line: The direct implications are murky at best.
To state the obvious, it is better to be President Biden after the verdict than Trump, who now must worry about sentences and a likely appeal process. No one wants to be found guilty of a felony.
That said, the 2024 presidential race will offer Americans the same option as in the last two presidential contests to elect Trump, a man the world knows has a deeply flawed moral compass. He has been married three times, relished having affairs, has filed for bankruptcy on his businesses six times, settled with the government over racial discrimination, bragged about committing sexual assault against women, and admitted to not being a particularly good father.
Voters in 2016 knew all that and elected him anyway. In 2020, he was nearly reelected again with voters aware of the allegations that he paid off a porn star to cover up an affair. Republican voters in every state so far have voted to nominate him even after learning he had been indicted in four separate criminal cases.
In other words, while Trump’s guilty verdict is historic and somber, all that is likely to directly change are television ads that can accurately declare him “Felon Don” or some similar label. That and Trump will likely raise a boatload of money as his base gets furious at what they see as an unfair political prosecution.
As for the voters who are still up for grabs, their decision will likely rest on other matters. After all, the economy, border security, and abortion rights are the top issues in the campaign. Other issues factored larger in the last two elections so why wouldn’t they this time?
More interestingly, a Marquette Law School national poll last week found that if acquitted, Trump would lead Biden by 6 percentage points. If Trump were convicted, Biden would lead by 5 points.
Trump potentially faces three other criminal trials, including allegations he attempted to interfere with the 2020 presidential election in Georgia, that he aimed to prevent Congress from doing its job on Jan. 6, 2021, and that he stole classified materials.
In the New York case, Trump faced 34 charges of falsifying business records related to buying the silence of Stormy Daniels, a porn star who claimed she had consensual sex with Trump while he was married. Trump claimed he didn’t authorize the payment and denied he had sex with her.
Democrats had high hopes that Trump’s hush-money trial, though not the most damning of the four cases against him, would mark a turning point in the presidential race.
Meanwhile, Biden could showcase presidential accomplishments while fund-raising nationwide with his Cabinet. For undecided voters, Democrats believed the politics were clear — they needed a win.
But after seven unprecedented weeks of a former president on trial while running again, it didn’t work out that way. Trump maintained a slim national lead over Biden and in key swing states, according to polls. Trump’s campaign had even raised more money than Biden did for the first time in April, even though he was confined to a courtroom for most of the month.
The race has been stuck for months, and even a criminal trial dominating cable news for nearly two months didn’t change that. In fact, as the jury deliberated, stories highlighted the Republican Party coalescing behind Trump while Democrats worried about Biden’s prospects.
Since the trial began, Trump’s lead in key swing states hasn’t diminished, but in the case of Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, Trump’s apparent support has grown, though within the polling margin of error.
The trial, debates, and conventions are all moments for possible momentum shifts. (Of course, surprises could still emerge in the final five months.)
As such, the Biden campaign has circled June 27 on the calendar, the date of the first debate with Trump. Maybe something huge will happen then. Or, as is the case of so many news developments that didn’t change the race’s polling, maybe not.
James Pindell can be reached at
[email protected]. Follow him @jamespindell and on Instagram @jameswpindell.
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