All Things Russia & Ukraine

[old salt]

Ian Bremmer -- if Putin formally sends Russian troops into the areas of E Ukraine now controlled by Russian separatists, the US will increase sanctions, but the EU will split from the US & do nothing meaningful.
Putin won't attack Kyiv but he will then occupy much of the Donbass region.

No shite. If the US became involved militarily, china would snap up Taiwan immediately. If you think supply chains and chip shortages are bad now…

In any case, things will get interesting once the Winter Olympics conclude.

imo -- the US would levy sanctions & send more forces to NATO's E flank.
EU NATO members may also send some more forces to the E front,
but not do anything to prompt Putin to reduce the gas flow in the winter.

[PizzaSnake]

Ian Bremmer -- if Putin formally sends Russian troops into the areas of E Ukraine now controlled by Russian separatists, the US will increase sanctions, but the EU will split from the US & do nothing meaningful.
Putin won't attack Kyiv but he will then occupy much of the Donbass region.

No shite. If the US became involved militarily, china would snap up Taiwan immediately. If you think supply chains and chip shortages are bad now…

In any case, things will get interesting once the Winter Olympics conclude.

imo -- the US would levy sanctions & send more forces to NATO's E flank.
EU NATO members may also send some more forces to the E front,
but not do anything to prompt Putin to reduce the gas flow in the winter.

Not to be too callous, but Ukraine and Russia are the EU’s problem.

Taiwan and China are much more relevant to the interests of the world economy.

[old salt]

Ian Bremmer -- if Putin formally sends Russian troops into the areas of E Ukraine now controlled by Russian separatists, the US will increase sanctions, but the EU will split from the US & do nothing meaningful.
Putin won't attack Kyiv but he will then occupy much of the Donbass region.

No shite. If the US became involved militarily, china would snap up Taiwan immediately. If you think supply chains and chip shortages are bad now…

In any case, things will get interesting once the Winter Olympics conclude.

imo -- the US would levy sanctions & send more forces to NATO's E flank.
EU NATO members may also send some more forces to the E front,
but not do anything to prompt Putin to reduce the gas flow in the winter.

Not to be too callous, but Ukraine and Russia are the EU’s problem.

Taiwan and China are much more relevant to the interests of the world economy.

I agree.

Now Sweden & Finland are considering applying for NATO membership, as 30k Russian paratroopers are invited into the capital of Kazakhstan, where the President has issued shoot-to-kill ROE vs protesters.

[youthathletics]

Ian Bremmer -- if Putin formally sends Russian troops into the areas of E Ukraine now controlled by Russian separatists, the US will increase sanctions, but the EU will split from the US & do nothing meaningful.
Putin won't attack Kyiv but he will then occupy much of the Donbass region.

No shite. If the US became involved militarily, china would snap up Taiwan immediately. If you think supply chains and chip shortages are bad now…

In any case, things will get interesting once the Winter Olympics conclude.

imo -- the US would levy sanctions & send more forces to NATO's E flank.
EU NATO members may also send some more forces to the E front,
but not do anything to prompt Putin to reduce the gas flow in the winter.

Not to be too callous, but Ukraine and Russia are the EU’s problem.

Taiwan and China are much more relevant to the interests of the world economy.

I agree.

Now Sweden & Finland are considering applying for NATO membership, as 30k Russian paratroopers are invited into the capital of Kazakhstan, where the President has issued shoot-to-kill ROE vs protesters.

I read that yesterday....crazy times. I also recommend that we work more closely with Taiwan, create an exchange program to have more of a presence there and in turn bring in their semi-conductor manufacturing leverage to the US....be up and running in no time.

[PizzaSnake]

Ian Bremmer -- if Putin formally sends Russian troops into the areas of E Ukraine now controlled by Russian separatists, the US will increase sanctions, but the EU will split from the US & do nothing meaningful.
Putin won't attack Kyiv but he will then occupy much of the Donbass region.

No shite. If the US became involved militarily, china would snap up Taiwan immediately. If you think supply chains and chip shortages are bad now…

In any case, things will get interesting once the Winter Olympics conclude.

imo -- the US would levy sanctions & send more forces to NATO's E flank.
EU NATO members may also send some more forces to the E front,
but not do anything to prompt Putin to reduce the gas flow in the winter.

Not to be too callous, but Ukraine and Russia are the EU’s problem.

Taiwan and China are much more relevant to the interests of the world economy.

I agree.

Now Sweden & Finland are considering applying for NATO membership, as 30k Russian paratroopers are invited into the capital of Kazakhstan, where the President has issued shoot-to-kill ROE vs protesters.

I read that yesterday....crazy times. I also recommend that we work more closely with Taiwan, create an exchange program to have more of a presence there and in turn bring in their semi-conductor manufacturing leverage to the US....be up and running in no time.

These machines are what China wants. It can’t make them. Hard to move. Doubt they could maintain and operate without manufacturing consortium support.

“The machine is made by ASML Holding, based in Veldhoven. Its system uses a different kind of light to define ultrasmall circuitry on chips, packing more performance into the small slices of silicon. The tool, which took decades to develop and was introduced for high-volume manufacturing in 2017, costs more than $150 million. Shipping it to customers requires 40 shipping containers, 20 trucks and three Boeing 747s.

The complex machine is widely acknowledged as necessary for making the most advanced chips, an ability with geopolitical implications. The Trump administration successfully lobbied the Dutch government to block shipments of such a machine to China in 2019, and the Biden administration has shown no signs of reversing that stance.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/04/tech ... chips.html

[a fan]

Ian Bremmer -- if Putin formally sends Russian troops into the areas of E Ukraine now controlled by Russian separatists, the US will increase sanctions, but the EU will split from the US & do nothing meaningful.
Putin won't attack Kyiv but he will then occupy much of the Donbass region.

No shite. If the US became involved militarily, china would snap up Taiwan immediately. If you think supply chains and chip shortages are bad now…

In any case, things will get interesting once the Winter Olympics conclude.

imo -- the US would levy sanctions & send more forces to NATO's E flank.
EU NATO members may also send some more forces to the E front,
but not do anything to prompt Putin to reduce the gas flow in the winter.

Not to be too callous, but Ukraine and Russia are the EU’s problem.

Taiwan and China are much more relevant to the interests of the world economy.

I agree.

Now Sweden & Finland are considering applying for NATO membership, as 30k Russian paratroopers are invited into the capital of Kazakhstan, where the President has issued shoot-to-kill ROE vs protesters.

Yes. More problems for Putin.

[old salt]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... story.html

Europe to Russia: Invade Ukraine, and We All Join NATO

By Andreas Kluth | Bloomberg
January 7, 2022 at 9:33 a.m. EST

You may not have been glued to the annual new year’s address by Finland’s president. That’s understandable but unfortunate, because Sauli Niinisto said some remarkable things. His speech should give the European Union an idea, to be discussed not just in Brussels but also — and especially — in the capitals of Sweden, Austria, Ireland, Cyprus and Malta.

These six countries all belong to the EU but are otherwise officially non-aligned, meaning that they are not members of NATO, the transatlantic alliance that kept the peace during the Cold War and currently has to figure out how it would respond to a renewed invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

The idea — inspired by Niinisto’s comments — is this: All six neutral countries, linking arms with the EU and NATO, should turn the ultimatum given by Russian President Vladimir Putin to the West on its head. He’s in effect demanding that NATO stop expanding forever, or else he attacks. Instead, the Finns, Swedes, Austrians, Irish, Maltese and Cypriots should explain that if he does attack, they will join NATO.

Niinisto, of course, didn’t nearly go that far. In his diplomatic way, he merely reminded Finns that their “room to maneuver and freedom of choice also include the possibility of military alignment and of applying for NATO membership, should we ourselves so decide.” This freedom of choice is exactly what Putin wants to deny countries such as Ukraine, Moldova or Georgia.

A new and welcome sense of Finnish confidence and destiny is peeking through Niinisto’s words. After the Second World War, Finland famously declared itself non-aligned in a bilateral deal with the Soviet Union. This was a pragmatic but somewhat desperate attempt to keep its sovereignty next to that huge communist bully. West Germans and others applied the pejorative term “Finlandization” to this process of kowtowing in return for nominal independence.

The other five neutral EU countries have different histories. Austria’s story is closest to Finland’s: It declared itself non-aligned in the 1950s to end the occupation of the Allied victors of World War II, including the Soviet Union, which had made Austrian neutrality a condition. That said, Austria’s tacit business model nowadays rests on being comparatively friendly toward Moscow. If Putin becomes a rogue menace, that’s no longer tenable.

That dynamic is even more pronounced in Cyprus. It has attracted so much money from Russia’s oligarchs, it’s sometimes called a Russian bank account inside the EU. But aside from that, nothing would stand in the way of Cyprus’ membership in NATO. The island is contested between the Greek-speaking south (which is in the EU) and the ethnically Turkish north (which is recognized only by Turkey). But both Greece and Turkey are already in NATO. Cypriot membership in the alliance could actually stabilize the island’s simmering conflict.

The same logic applies to that other divided island. The part of Ireland that belongs to the U.K. is no longer in the EU but still in NATO. The situation of the Republic is reversed. But nobody doubts that Ireland’s sympathies in a conflict with Russia would lie with the West. And the country no longer needs to prove that its foreign policy is independent of the Brits’, which was one reason why it didn’t join the club long ago.

Among the six EU countries, the tradition of neutrality is strongest in Sweden, where it is baked into notions of national identity as in Switzerland (which is not in the EU). After losing a war to Russia more than two centuries ago, Sweden ceded Finland to the Tsars. From then on it saw its destiny in non-alignment, feeling relatively safe behind the buffer of Finland.

And yet the two Nordic nations nowadays see the world in similar ways. If Russia becomes more aggressive in the Baltic, they would both be on the front line. Above all, both have an interest — as does the entire EU — in sending a message to Putin: We don’t accept your attempt to return to might-makes-right and spheres of influence; we won’t allow great powers once again to decide among themselves the fate of smaller nations.

In 21st-century Europe, neutrality is no longer a viable raison d’etat (with the possible exception of Switzerland, but that’s another story). A strategy of non-alignment presupposes that potentially hostile actors abide by rules, the first of which is that they won’t attack neutral nations. Putin appears intent on proving again that he disdains such norms.

Niinisto made this point by quoting Henry Kissinger. As that arch-realist former U.S. secretary of state put it in his doctoral thesis: “Whenever peace — conceived as the avoidance of war — has been the primary objective [...], the international system has been at the mercy of the most ruthless member of the international community.” In today’s context: If you put neutrality above all else, you put all of us at the mercy of Putin.

If Putin takes the hint and backs down (for now) in Ukraine, the neutral countries can always wait. But in the long term, their membership in NATO makes sense anyway. The EU has long been frustrated that it has so little heft in geopolitics. And it has long been at odds with the U.S. about whether and how to build a “European army,” without confusing or compromising NATO’s command structures.

Admitting all countries in the EU into NATO could partially address both problems. The Europeans would become a single, more-or-less coherent bloc within the Western alliance. Both the EU and the West would be stronger as a result. In fact, this path may be the only way Europe can keep its seat at the table of great powers and be taken seriously — even by unscrupulous tyrants like Putin.

Hold on. Here we go.

[youthathletics]

Hold on. Here we go.

Something is amiss. No way Putin overlooked this potential...or did he? I suspect deep down he wants inclusion, and the military front in Ukraine was to get the juices of dialogue flowing. Maybe he wants in on NATO as an end game, then that'll put the squeeze on the China in this current GPC. Essentially, align with the US and turn the triangle of the GPC in to two against 1.

[old salt]

Alexander Vindman on BBC -- the likelihood of invasion is very high. Won't be like the invasion of 2014. Largest offensive in Europe since WW II. Massive aerial bombardment campaign, long range artillery fires, all sorts of weapons that Russia will bring to bear. The reason is - they want a failed state in Ukraine. The primary goal of Putin is to reincorporate Ukraine back into the Russian sphere of influence.

Vindman proposes moving more NATO forces (including US forces) into the member nations on the E flank.
my input -- we've been preparing bases in Poland & Romania for this contingency.

I couldn't find the BBC clip, but he said much of the same to NPR.
https://www.kbbi.org/npr-news/2022-01-1 ... e-tensions

[MDlaxfan76]

Alexander Vindman on BBC -- the likelihood of invasion is very high. Won't be like the invasion of 2014. Largest offensive in Europe since WW II. Massive aerial bombardment campaign, long range artillery fires, all sorts of weapons that Russia will bring to bear. The reason is - they want a failed state in Ukraine. The primary goal of Putin is to reincorporate Ukraine back into the Russian sphere of influence.

Vindman proposes moving more NATO forces (including US forces) into the member nations on the E flank.
my input -- we've been preparing bases in Poland & Romania for this contingency.

I couldn't find the BBC clip, but he said much of the same to NPR.
https://www.kbbi.org/npr-news/2022-01-1 ... e-tensions

what's your handicap on whether he's correct?

[old salt]

Alexander Vindman on BBC -- the likelihood of invasion is very high. Won't be like the invasion of 2014. Largest offensive in Europe since WW II. Massive aerial bombardment campaign, long range artillery fires, all sorts of weapons that Russia will bring to bear. The reason is - they want a failed state in Ukraine. The primary goal of Putin is to reincorporate Ukraine back into the Russian sphere of influence.

Vindman proposes moving more NATO forces (including US forces) into the member nations on the E flank.
my input -- we've been preparing bases in Poland & Romania for this contingency.

I couldn't find the BBC clip, but he said much of the same to NPR.
https://www.kbbi.org/npr-news/2022-01-1 ... e-tensions

what's your handicap on whether he's correct?

I have no idea. With Putin, who can accurately predict ?
imho -- it depends on what he thinks the EU will do, specifically Germany.
It would really be helpful if they'd all top off their natural gas reserves via LNG imports
& Germany declared that Nordstream 2 will never open if any further territory in Ukraine is invaded, annexed, or occupied.
I wish there were more reporting & analysis about Russian public opinion.

[MDlaxfan76]

Alexander Vindman on BBC -- the likelihood of invasion is very high. Won't be like the invasion of 2014. Largest offensive in Europe since WW II. Massive aerial bombardment campaign, long range artillery fires, all sorts of weapons that Russia will bring to bear. The reason is - they want a failed state in Ukraine. The primary goal of Putin is to reincorporate Ukraine back into the Russian sphere of influence.

Vindman proposes moving more NATO forces (including US forces) into the member nations on the E flank.
my input -- we've been preparing bases in Poland & Romania for this contingency.

I couldn't find the BBC clip, but he said much of the same to NPR.
https://www.kbbi.org/npr-news/2022-01-1 ... e-tensions

what's your handicap on whether he's correct?

I have no idea. With Putin, who can accurately predict ?
imho -- it depends on what he thinks the EU will do, specifically Germany.
It would really be helpful if they'd all top off their natural gas reserves via LNG imports
& Germany declared that Nordstream 2 will never open if any further territory in Ukraine is invaded, annexed, or occupied.
I wish there were more reporting & analysis about Russian public opinion.

Thanks...you pay closer attention than I do which is why I asked.

Fingers crossed.

[PizzaSnake]

Beginning?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... an-hackers

Guess Pootie goes first since the Winter Olympic stay of execution for Taiwan might be cancelled.

[RedFromMI]

Beginning?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... an-hackers

Guess Pootie goes first since the Winter Olympic stay of execution for Taiwan might be cancelled.

According to my Twitter feed the US has now information that the Russians are installing agents in place in Eastern Ukraine to mount a false flag operation to give reason for an invasion.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... story.html

[old salt]

This articles, & the maps therein, are helpful. (caution WP paywall)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wor ... -protests/

If you don't want to use a WP free read, the maps are in these google searches :

https://www.google.com/search?q=ukrania ... gVGB0KwKPM

https://www.google.com/search?q=ukrania ... rgHaF-1yqM

[old salt]

If the Russians are going to stage false flag attacks on their own or proxy forces, mix in USAF B-2/F-22/F-35 stealth strikes & make it hurt.
...then we have deniability & data on their S-400 radar effectiveness vs our newest stealth aircraft.

If Putin wants a fight, give him a taste, ...on our terms.
(the above musings are said in jest).

The EUroburghers are waking up :
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-crisis-a- ... a-60411886
You could say that this week has not reflected well on the European Union's political power.

As the Russian troop buildup on the eastern Ukrainian border continues to stoke fears of a Russian invasion, Europe did not even get a spot at the negotiating table.

On Monday, senior diplomats from the United States and Russia met in Geneva for crunch talks, without any EU officials.

When the talks were moved to Brussels on Wednesday, the setting of choice was not the European Council bringing together European heads of state, but rather NATO headquarters.

On Thursday, negotiations are continuing at the permanent council of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe in Vienna.

Russia is accused of having massed 100,000 combat-ready troops at the Ukrainian border; the West is asking these troops to be withdrawn.

Moscow is demanding that NATO pull its forces out of former Soviet countries, end any eastern expansion and rule out Ukraine joining the alliance. The US calls this unrealistic, while underlining that talks should continue.

And all along, it seems the EU is watching from afar.

EU member states' foreign ministers are coming together on Thursday and Friday in the northwestern French city of Brest. A French diplomatic source told journalists ahead of the informal meeting that the EU was "deeply implicated in ongoing discussions on Ukraine."

"We are coordinating closely with the US and being debriefed by them," the source said.

But observers can only marvel at how little of a role the EU seems to be playing.

"This feels like the post-World War II period when the Americans and Russians were deciding on Europe's future — especially as this conflict is taking place right at Europe's doorstep," Jacques Rupnik, head of research at the Paris-based Sciences Po University, told DW.

...Rupnik agrees the EU needs to get out of its role of an exclusively economic and commercial "soft power" and also become a geopolitical "hard power."

But there might be a silver lining, reckoned Sophie Pornschlegel, a senior policy analyst at the Brussels-based think tank European Policy Center.

"The current situation goes to show that the US doesn't hesitate to bypass Europe — even regarding a conflict happening in one of the EU's neighboring countries."

And that increases the urgency to come up with a common EU stance on defense, she believes.

"Europe now has to acknowledge that the world is dominated by competing powers such as China and the US, and that we have to act if we don't want to be completely overrun by things in the future," Pornschlegel said.

She's hoping the EU will find more common ground in March, when it's set to agree on the so-called strategic compass, a white paper on EU defense policy that Macron is pushing.

The meeting in Brest could partly pave the way for such an agreement.

[PizzaSnake]

Forget energy. Putin wants the agricultural capacity of Ukraine. Look at this list and note that Argentina and Brazil are in climatic hot water. The Great Plains of the US and the overtaxed Ogallala Aquifer are screwed as well.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... at_exports

[old salt]

Warrior Princess Evelyn Farkas is ready to lead us to war with Russia to defend Ukraine. I'm inspired :

https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2022/0 ... ne/360639/
The United States must do more than issue ultimatums about sanctions and economic penalties. U.S. leaders should be marshalling an international coalition of the willing, readying military forces to deter Putin and, if necessary, prepare for war.

If Russia prevails again, we will remain stuck in a crisis not just over Ukraine but about the future of the global order far beyond that country’s borders. Left unrestrained, Putin will move swiftly, grab some land, consolidate his gains, and set his sights on the next satellite state in his long game to restore all the pre-1991 borders: the sphere of geographical influence he deems was unjustly stripped from Great Russia.

The world will watch our response. Any subsequent acceptance of Russian gains will spell the beginning of the end of the international order. If Europe, NATO, and its allies in Asia and elsewhere fail to defend the foundational United Nations principles of sanctity of borders and state sovereignty, no one will. Any appeasement will only beget future land grabs not only from Putin, but also from China in Taiwan and elsewhere. And if the world’s democracies lack the political will to stop them, the rules-based international order will collapse. The United Nations will go the way of the League of Nations. We will revert to spheres of global influence, unbridled military and economic competition, and ultimately, world war.

I believe Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is even more likely after watching Russian forces quell the current round of demonstrations in Kazakhstan. The demonstrations in Almaty and throughout the country likely only intensified Putin’s alarm for democratic uprisings, or what he calls “color revolutions,” and renewed his commitment to use armed forces against them throughout the region.

Today’s mustering of American and European forces in response to Russia’s military and political aggression must be described for what it is: a fight to preserve the international order and the United Nations established to protect it, including NATO. Remember, the Western alliance was established under the umbrella of the UN Charter, which recognizes a role for regional security organizations to help keep the peace. But lately those organizations and their member states have proven unable to stop Russian expansion.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union 30 years ago last month, the Russian Federation has fought gradually to maintain and regain dominance of the Soviet republics and the former East Bloc, especially after Putin came to power. Russia has established military bases in Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Moldova. Russia encouraged secessionists in Moldova and Georgia to create breakaway territories and in 2008 invaded Georgia, still occupying 20 percent of the state’s territory. In 2014, Russia invaded Ukraine and seized Crimea, declared the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine henceforth revised through military force. This was the first time military force had been employed to change borders in Europe since Hitler’s invasions and occupations. It was an audacious rebuke of the world order established at the end of the World War II.

...the Russian leader is now making larger demands. He wants two new treaties that would prevent NATO from accepting new members, stationing military forces in member states that joined after 1997, placing nuclear weapons in members’ territory, and embarking on any activity in Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

...If Putin refuses to negotiate about things that are negotiable, like arms controls, and insists on curtailing NATO membership and military basing and operations, we will be a diplomatic standstill. If that happens, our best bet is a new Cold War.

The only way to reassert the primacy of international law and sanctity of international borders, and contain Russia, may be to issue our own ultimatum. We must not only condemn Russia’s illegal occupations of Ukraine and Georgia, but we must demand a withdrawal from both countries by a certain date and organize coalition forces willing to take action to enforce it.

...Only a balance of military power—a deterrent force and the political will to match—can keep war at bay and the military dynamic frozen.

The horrible possibility exists that Americans, with our European allies, must use our military to roll back Russians—even at risk of direct combat. But if we don’t now, Putin will force us to fight another day, likely to defend our Baltic or other Eastern European allies.

When this week’s talks end and Moscow moves its military forward, the United States and our allies around the world must take all of the steps the Biden administration has laid out including sanctions, export controls of technologies, and arming Ukraine. But that’s not enough. Biden should go to the United Nations immediately to rally the global community of nations. We must build a new coalition of the willing to enforce the state sovereignty enshrined in the UN Charter.

[seacoaster]

While most of us have no interest in seeing the country in an armed conflict over Ukraine, isn't her basic point -- that the UN stands for and must protect the sovereignty of member nations -- correct? And isn't she likely correct about -- assuming the international community doesn't act with results -- Putin moving after this to repatriate another former Soviet republic, remedying what he has publicly called the biggest catastrophe of the 20th century? I don't read this article as a rallying for war; I read it as imploring the West not to put away that arrow in its quiver so quickly and so finally, because the loss of Ukraine's sovereignty will mean proof in the pudding: that the international order (such as it is) is unable to secure and protect state sovereignty.

[old salt]

These parts are the rallying cry for war :

Warrior Princess Evelyn Farkas is ready to lead us to war with Russia to defend Ukraine. I'm inspired :

https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2022/0 ... ne/360639/
The United States must do more than issue ultimatums about sanctions and economic penalties. U.S. leaders should be marshalling an international coalition of the willing, readying military forces to deter Putin and, if necessary, prepare for war.

If Russia prevails again, we will remain stuck in a crisis not just over Ukraine but about the future of the global order far beyond that country’s borders. Left unrestrained, Putin will move swiftly, grab some land, consolidate his gains, and set his sights on the next satellite state in his long game to restore all the pre-1991 borders: the sphere of geographical influence he deems was unjustly stripped from Great Russia.

The world will watch our response. Any subsequent acceptance of Russian gains will spell the beginning of the end of the international order. If Europe, NATO, and its allies in Asia and elsewhere fail to defend the foundational United Nations principles of sanctity of borders and state sovereignty, no one will. Any appeasement will only beget future land grabs not only from Putin, but also from China in Taiwan and elsewhere. And if the world’s democracies lack the political will to stop them, the rules-based international order will collapse. The United Nations will go the way of the League of Nations. We will revert to spheres of global influence, unbridled military and economic competition, and ultimately, world war.

I believe Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is even more likely after watching Russian forces quell the current round of demonstrations in Kazakhstan. The demonstrations in Almaty and throughout the country likely only intensified Putin’s alarm for democratic uprisings, or what he calls “color revolutions,” and renewed his commitment to use armed forces against them throughout the region.

Today’s mustering of American and European forces in response to Russia’s military and political aggression must be described for what it is: a fight to preserve the international order and the United Nations established to protect it, including NATO. Remember, the Western alliance was established under the umbrella of the UN Charter, which recognizes a role for regional security organizations to help keep the peace. But lately those organizations and their member states have proven unable to stop Russian expansion.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union 30 years ago last month, the Russian Federation has fought gradually to maintain and regain dominance of the Soviet republics and the former East Bloc, especially after Putin came to power. Russia has established military bases in Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Moldova. Russia encouraged secessionists in Moldova and Georgia to create breakaway territories and in 2008 invaded Georgia, still occupying 20 percent of the state’s territory. In 2014, Russia invaded Ukraine and seized Crimea, declared the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine henceforth revised through military force. This was the first time military force had been employed to change borders in Europe since Hitler’s invasions and occupations. It was an audacious rebuke of the world order established at the end of the World War II.

...the Russian leader is now making larger demands. He wants two new treaties that would prevent NATO from accepting new members, stationing military forces in member states that joined after 1997, placing nuclear weapons in members’ territory, and embarking on any activity in Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

...If Putin refuses to negotiate about things that are negotiable, like arms controls, and insists on curtailing NATO membership and military basing and operations, we will be a diplomatic standstill. If that happens, our best bet is a new Cold War.

The only way to reassert the primacy of international law and sanctity of international borders, and contain Russia, may be to issue our own ultimatum. We must not only condemn Russia’s illegal occupations of Ukraine and Georgia, but we must demand a withdrawal from both countries by a certain date and organize coalition forces willing to take action to enforce it.

...Only a balance of military power—a deterrent force and the political will to match—can keep war at bay and the military dynamic frozen.

The horrible possibility exists that Americans, with our European allies, must use our military to roll back Russians—even at risk of direct combat. But if we don’t now, Putin will force us to fight another day, likely to defend our Baltic or other Eastern European allies.

When this week’s talks end and Moscow moves its military forward, the United States and our allies around the world must take all of the steps the Biden administration has laid out including sanctions, export controls of technologies, and arming Ukraine. But that’s not enough. Biden should go to the United Nations immediately to rally the global community of nations. We must build a new coalition of the willing to enforce the state sovereignty enshrined in the UN Charter.

That is a threat of war to maintain the borders of a non-NATO nation, with little history of independence, which was once a critical part of Russia