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Re: Transfer Portal
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:27 pm
by njfanlax
JeremyCuse wrote: ↑Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:12 pm
I find this hard to believe, ACC is not usually in the business of restricting their programs or putting them at a disadvantage in anyway. Anything is possible of course but I can't see any of the ACC coaches or ADs going for this.
https://madison.com/wsj/sports/college/ ... 2eea4.html
"...Alvarez addressed financial issues related to the coronavirus. He said the athletic department is modeling three budgets for next season: one with competition returning in full; one with no fall sports, including football; and one with no fall or winter sports."
I am assuming that when the Wisconsin AD looked at the budget model without fall or winter sports, the idea of giving spring athletes an extra year became politically and financially untenable.
Re: Transfer Portal
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:16 pm
by keno in reno
njfanlax wrote: ↑Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:27 pm
JeremyCuse wrote: ↑Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:12 pm
I find this hard to believe, ACC is not usually in the business of restricting their programs or putting them at a disadvantage in anyway. Anything is possible of course but I can't see any of the ACC coaches or ADs going for this.
https://madison.com/wsj/sports/college/ ... 2eea4.html
"...Alvarez addressed financial issues related to the coronavirus. He said the athletic department is modeling three budgets for next season: one with competition returning in full; one with no fall sports, including football; and one with no fall or winter sports."
I am assuming that when the Wisconsin AD looked at the budget model without fall or winter sports, the idea of giving spring athletes an extra year became politically and financially untenable.
Alvarez is a very smart AD. Spring sports are almost 100% expense and 0% revenue. Why extend the losses? This year's March Madness is already lost. Football is in jeopardy. That's it for money-makers. Like every other aspect of America, men's college lacrosse could look very different next spring.
Re: Transfer Portal
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:31 pm
by Farfromgeneva
Dean friend said his info was Lasalle was done just a matter of timing. Mt Ida in Mass was consolidated into UMass Dartmouth a year or two ago. Have heard Hartwick is pretty distressed, dropping down to D3 in soccer and giving up that unique hook was just a canary in the coal mine.
I think for a non NECAC, most of the Liberty League and Cetennial Conference, and randomly dispersed schools like Denison, Kenyon, Carleton, Grinnell, W&L, Susanne, Centre, Co College, Claremont types of schools the rest are at serious risk. And even amongst types like the ones above there will be casualties. Figure it’s going to be bare min $400mm endowment along with other characteristics to stay in the game. That’s a rough number but using that 5% tax exemption nut which allows schools to throw up to $20mm towards the operating budget for these schools with 1,500-3,000 students annually. Rough back of napkin analysis, but most of these schools run operating expenses of $40-$75mm so if they miss on yield by 5-10%, and have a over variance on expenses by 5-10% that ends up being a few million to $5-$6mm deficit.
Re: Transfer Portal
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:53 pm
by shaadb-man
ACC looking at not allowing the 5th year. Also if that is not passed many ACC schools may take same route as Wisconsin.
Re: Transfer Portal
Posted: Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:09 am
by Farfromgeneva
Time for the CAA to clean up along with a handful of schools in other conferences if it turns out that the BigTen, ACC and Ivy ultimately dk grad transfers or 5th yr guys.
Don’t know who all has what masters programs but looking at UMass, Faifield, Nova, GTown, Denver, Prov, Richmond, Jacksonville (even if not in the cards start a grad degree and be in FL) and maybe a few more of they can justify the expense and the sport is an upper half/top quartile athletic priority there. Still presumably would need to be a solid academic joint, there are some int he remaining conferences I won’t name to avoid conflict but just wouldn’t be attractive with zero chance of at least postseason and not a 14-16 seed. Jax the only one I listed with little chance unless 5-6 guys decided to go there, enjoy the weather and create a one year run.
But.....I wish the last part would happen somewhere and not some big money school. It would be a fun outlier if Irelan, Sowers, Holden, Etc all decided to hit a school for a year and see if they could make a run at a non traditional place with their degrees in hand.
How about imagining the team composition. Another fun speculative diversion.
Re: Transfer Portal
Posted: Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:43 am
by JBFortunato
Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:31 pm
Dean friend said his info was Lasalle was done just a matter of timing. Mt Ida in Mass was consolidated into UMass Dartmouth a year or two ago. Have heard Hartwick is pretty distressed, dropping down to D3 in soccer and giving up that unique hook was just a canary in the coal mine.
I think for a non NECAC, most of the Liberty League and Cetennial Conference, and randomly dispersed schools like Denison, Kenyon, Carleton, Grinnell, W&L, Susanne, Centre, Co College, Claremont types of schools the rest are at serious risk. And even amongst types like the ones above there will be casualties. Figure it’s going to be bare min $400mm endowment along with other characteristics to stay in the game. That’s a rough number but using that 5% tax exemption nut which allows schools to throw up to $20mm towards the operating budget for these schools with 1,500-3,000 students annually. Rough back of napkin analysis, but most of these schools run operating expenses of $40-$75mm so if they miss on yield by 5-10%, and have a over variance on expenses by 5-10% that ends up being a few million to $5-$6mm deficit.
I'm not sure I understand your point. So let's be clear.
I hear you saying that every college with an endowment of "bare minimum" $400mm will be going out of business? That's quite a theory if so.
Re: Transfer Portal
Posted: Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:56 am
by Farfromgeneva
Under somewhere around $400mm that’s not a upper tier Liberal Arts college generally speaking. So flip what you said. Maybe the number is $300-$350mm, maybe it’s a half billion, but I’m basing it on what 5% that an endowment has to spend since it can go towards tuition discounts and some other line items to cover.
There’s been papers and studies that 25% of NE colleges will fail in the next ten years and that was prior to this pandemic which is causing the majority of colleges, maybe as many as 85-90%, to lose money this year and already looking at struggles for next operating year.
Re: Transfer Portal
Posted: Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:02 am
by AreaLax
JeremyCuse wrote: ↑Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:12 pm
I find this hard to believe, ACC is not usually in the business of restricting their programs or putting them at a disadvantage in anyway. Anything is possible of course but I can't see any of the ACC coaches or ADs going for this.
The rumor of a P5 conference not allowing the Sr back has been floating around for about a week.
Re: Transfer Portal
Posted: Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:11 am
by Wheels
Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:56 am
Under somewhere around $400mm that’s not a upper tier Liberal Arts college generally speaking. So flip what you said. Maybe the number is $300-$350mm, maybe it’s a half billion, but I’m basing it on what 5% that an endowment has to spend since it can go towards tuition discounts and some other line items to cover.
There’s been papers and studies that 25% of NE colleges will fail in the next ten years and that was prior to this pandemic which is causing the majority of colleges, maybe as many as 85-90%, to lose money this year and already looking at struggles for next operating year.
The students won't go away. They'll flow to other schools. They're still going to be tuition-dependent schools for sure, but once the schools start going out of business (or merging), the supply of students will flow back to whatever is left around. Some will go to the State U's...if there's enough room. Some will want to stay at privates. They'll flow that way. The sorting out is going to chaos.
Re: Transfer Portal
Posted: Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:25 am
by Farfromgeneva
Demographics. Especially on the male side. Massive expected/projected decline in the country but especially the NE over next two decades. This is unrelated to the pandemic.
I take no joy in this idea. Lot of long history spots that have done good work but it’s hard to see a great outlook.
Re: Transfer Portal
Posted: Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:36 am
by Typical Lax Dad
Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:25 am
Demographics. Especially on the male side. Massive expected/projected decline in the country but especially the NE over next two decades. This is unrelated to the pandemic.
I take no joy in this idea. Lot of long history spots that have done good work but it’s hard to see a great outlook.
https://www.collegeraptor.com/college-r ... t/State/OH
You can run this by state. If $350MM is the number, most colleges are going under.
Re: Transfer Portal
Posted: Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:06 am
by Farfromgeneva
Well to be clear I’m talking largely about the lower and lower middle class of private liberal arts schools and some smaller universities. Schools under something close to $1Bn endowment are tuition dependent. That’s a tough position to be in going forward. This is over the next decade or two. It’s demographic driven.
And maybe not that dire but I wouldn’t feel real good unless I had like $350-$400mm. Let’s just put it like that.
Re: Transfer Portal
Posted: Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:12 am
by Typical Lax Dad
Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:06 am
Well to be clear I’m talking largely about the lower and lower middle class of private liberal arts schools and some smaller universities. Schools under something close to $1Bn endowment are tuition dependent. That’s a tough position to be in going forward. This is over the next decade or two. It’s demographic driven.
And maybe not that dire but I wouldn’t feel real good unless I had like $350-$400mm. Let’s just put it like that.
I took a quick look at Pennsylvania and Ohio because they have so many small liberal arts colleges. The vast majority are under $300MM endowments.
Re: Transfer Portal
Posted: Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:17 am
by Farfromgeneva
I think the MAC and PAC conference schools are all at risk.
Probably some of NCAC is guess as well.
You think large companies struggle to cut legacy fixed costs? How do you think it’s going to be for schools that have grown the last 20-30yrs from say, 1,500-2,000 students to 2,000-3,000 students like a lot have, built up personnel, infrastructure etc. Suddenly their run rate top line goes down by even 10% it’ll be a struggle and only the best managers or those with cash will be in solid footing.
Re: Transfer Portal
Posted: Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:20 am
by AreaLax
Updated the previous list created by HopFan16
Italicized some of the "big" names:
Princeton - Michael Sowers (attack), Connor McCarthy (midfield)
Syracuse - Jared Fernandez (LSM)
Penn - Kyle Gallagher (FOGO), Kyle Thornton (defense)
Hopkins - Jack Rapine (defense), Matt Hubler (midfield)
Notre Dame - Charles Leonard (FOGO)
Yale - BJ Burlace (defense)
Ohio State - Josh Kirson (goalie), Christian Tomei (goalie)
Maryland - Drew Morris (goalie), Dylan Pallonetti (attack/midfield)
Utah - Mac Costin (midfield)
Lafayette - Beaudan Szuluk (defense)
St. Joseph's - Mike Adler (goalie)
Albany - Davis Diamond (attack/midfield)
Holy Cross - Justin Lynskey (attack), Kevin Kodzis (attack), Sean Mullaney (midfield)
Bucknell - Will Yorke (attack), Connor Shears (defense), Hunter Newman (LSM), Grayson Burns (attack), Matt Fedorjaka (midfield)
Hofstra - Whit Stopak (attack), Ryan Kinnard (midfield)
Robert Morris - Austin Popovich (midfield)
Bellarmine - Morgan Macko (attack)
Hobart - Sam Lucchesi (goalie), PJ Delpha (defense), Eric Holden (attack)
Merrimack - Davis Cronin (FOGO)
Providence - Sean Lahey (attack)
Colgate - Griffin Brown (attack/midfield), Nicky Petkevich (attack), Parker Baddley (LSM), John Donahue (defense), Cooper Belanger (midfield), Jesse Rosenblatt (attack)
Virginia - Xander Dickson (attack)
I believe they are competing for the regular season 12.6 scholarship or pay their own way.
Re: Transfer Portal
Posted: Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:30 am
by steel_hop
Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:17 am
I think the MAC and PAC conference schools are all at risk.
Probably some of NCAC is guess as well.
You think large companies struggle to cut legacy fixed costs? How do you think it’s going to be for schools that have grown the last 20-30yrs from say, 1,500-2,000 students to 2,000-3,000 students like a lot have, built up personnel, infrastructure etc. Suddenly their run rate top line goes down by even 10% it’ll be a struggle and only the best managers or those with cash will be in solid footing.
Also have to remember, many larger schools that have large International students (particularly Chinese students) will see a reduction in those students at least for next year. International students usually pay full freight and don't eat up federal aid dollars. There will be more competition from the premier public schools like UVA, UNC, Michigan, etc. that try to attract students that will go to those small liberal arts school in the NE and Mid-Atlantic.
Re: Transfer Portal
Posted: Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:43 am
by wgdsr
AreaLax wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:20 am
Updated the previous list created by HopFan16
Italicized some of the "big" names:
Princeton -
Michael Sowers (attack), Connor McCarthy (midfield)
Syracuse - Jared Fernandez (LSM)
Penn -
Kyle Gallagher (FOGO), Kyle Thornton (defense)
Hopkins - Jack Rapine (defense), Matt Hubler (midfield)
Notre Dame -
Charles Leonard (FOGO)
Yale - BJ Burlace (defense)
Ohio State -
Josh Kirson (goalie), Christian Tomei (goalie)
Maryland - Drew Morris (goalie), Dylan Pallonetti (attack/midfield)
Utah - Mac Costin (midfield)
Lafayette - Beaudan Szuluk (defense)
St. Joseph's -
Mike Adler (goalie)
Albany - Davis Diamond (attack/midfield)
Holy Cross - Justin Lynskey (attack), Kevin Kodzis (attack), Sean Mullaney (midfield)
Bucknell -
Will Yorke (attack), Connor Shears (defense), Hunter Newman (LSM), Grayson Burns (attack), Matt Fedorjaka (midfield)
Hofstra - Whit Stopak (attack), Ryan Kinnard (midfield)
Robert Morris - Austin Popovich (midfield)
Bellarmine - Morgan Macko (attack)
Hobart - Sam Lucchesi (goalie), PJ Delpha (defense),
Eric Holden (attack)
Merrimack - Davis Cronin (FOGO)
Providence - Sean Lahey (attack)
Colgate -
Griffin Brown (attack/midfield), Nicky Petkevich (attack), Parker Baddley (LSM), John Donahue (defense), Cooper Belanger (midfield), Jesse Rosenblatt (attack)
Virginia - Xander Dickson (attack)
I believe they are competing for the regular season 12.6 scholarship or pay their own way.
goalies plural at osu surprising.
fedorjaka @ bucknell, too?
i suspect this list will be much longer.
aren't the seniors able to get aid on top of 12.6 if school offers or did that change?
Re: Transfer Portal
Posted: Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:49 am
by Cooter
wgdsr wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:43 am
AreaLax wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:20 am
Bucknell -
Will Yorke (attack), Connor Shears (defense), Hunter Newman (LSM), Grayson Burns (attack), Matt Fedorjaka (midfield)
goalies plural at osu surprising.
fedorjaka @ bucknell, too?
i suspect this list will be much longer.
aren't the seniors able to get aid on top of 12.6 if school offers or did that change?
Fedorjaka is a senior, and Bucknell is one of those Patriot League schools without a graduate program.
Re: Transfer Portal
Posted: Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:02 am
by 44WeWantMore
wgdsr wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:43 am
AreaLax wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:20 am
Updated the previous list created by HopFan16
Italicized some of the "big" names:
Princeton -
Michael Sowers (attack), Connor McCarthy (midfield)
Syracuse - Jared Fernandez (LSM)
Penn -
Kyle Gallagher (FOGO), Kyle Thornton (defense)
Hopkins - Jack Rapine (defense), Matt Hubler (midfield)
Notre Dame -
Charles Leonard (FOGO)
Yale - BJ Burlace (defense)
Ohio State -
Josh Kirson (goalie), Christian Tomei (goalie)
Maryland - Drew Morris (goalie), Dylan Pallonetti (attack/midfield)
Utah - Mac Costin (midfield)
Lafayette - Beaudan Szuluk (defense)
St. Joseph's -
Mike Adler (goalie)
Albany - Davis Diamond (attack/midfield)
Holy Cross - Justin Lynskey (attack), Kevin Kodzis (attack), Sean Mullaney (midfield)
Bucknell -
Will Yorke (attack), Connor Shears (defense), Hunter Newman (LSM), Grayson Burns (attack), Matt Fedorjaka (midfield)
Hofstra - Whit Stopak (attack), Ryan Kinnard (midfield)
Robert Morris - Austin Popovich (midfield)
Bellarmine - Morgan Macko (attack)
Hobart - Sam Lucchesi (goalie), PJ Delpha (defense),
Eric Holden (attack)
Merrimack - Davis Cronin (FOGO)
Providence - Sean Lahey (attack)
Colgate -
Griffin Brown (attack/midfield), Nicky Petkevich (attack), Parker Baddley (LSM), John Donahue (defense), Cooper Belanger (midfield), Jesse Rosenblatt (attack)
Virginia - Xander Dickson (attack)
I believe they are competing for the regular season 12.6 scholarship or pay their own way.
goalies plural at osu surprising.
fedorjaka @ bucknell, too?
i suspect this list will be much longer.
aren't the seniors able to get aid on top of 12.6 if school offers or did that change?
I thought I read that the headroom above 12.6 was only if they stayed in place. If they transfer, they cut into the 12.6.
Re: Transfer Portal
Posted: Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:23 am
by wgdsr
44WeWantMore wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:02 am
wgdsr wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:43 am
AreaLax wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:20 am
I believe they are competing for the regular season 12.6 scholarship or pay their own way.
goalies plural at osu surprising.
fedorjaka @ bucknell, too?
i suspect this list will be much longer.
aren't the seniors able to get aid on top of 12.6 if school offers or did that change?
I thought I read that the headroom above 12.6 was only if they stayed in place. If they transfer, they cut into the 12.6.
got it, thanks. confirmed that's correct.
and thx cooter.
for the big names, that would seem to put any in-state publics at an advantage in a number of cases.
ament gone, wonder where sowers lands?