All things CoronaVirus

[DocBarrister]

Even if the actual number of coronavirus infection cases is double the “official” count of around 80,000, the mortality rate would still be 1,000 times that of “ordinary” flu. That’s pretty frightening.

This epidemic can still be managed, but we’re definitely on the cusp of a global pandemic. If it truly becomes a pandemic, then we’re talking about many thousands of additional deaths and a potential global recession.

DocBarrister

Care to explain your math here?

Looked at the wrong numbers (death rate per 100,000 general population ... 2 per 100,000 for flu but not all 100,000 were infected).

Should have compared mortality rate among infected individuals. So ...

... ~2% for Coronavirus

and about 0.13% for ordinary flu.

So, Coronavirus mortality rate is about 15x that of “ordinary flu”.

Thanks for catching the error.

DocBarrister

[Bart]

Even if the actual number of coronavirus infection cases is double the “official” count of around 80,000, the mortality rate would still be 1,000 times that of “ordinary” flu. That’s pretty frightening.

This epidemic can still be managed, but we’re definitely on the cusp of a global pandemic. If it truly becomes a pandemic, then we’re talking about many thousands of additional deaths and a potential global recession.

DocBarrister

Care to explain your math here?

Looked at the wrong numbers (death rate per 100,000 general population ... 2 per 100,000 for flu but not all 100,000 were infected).

Should have compared mortality rate among infected individuals. So ...

... ~2% for Coronavirus

and about 0.13% for ordinary flu.

So, Coronavirus mortality rate is about 15x that of “ordinary flu”.

Thanks for catching the error.

DocBarrister

No issue. just didn't add up. I still thing the 80k number is low, just do not believe anything out of china. i't will be a better gauge of the mortality of the virus in the "new" countries popping up.......unfortunately. i am hopeful the clinical trials of the antivirals go well. happening in both Nebraska and elsewhere. I fear what will happen if and when this virus gets to places with out a sophisticated health system.

[jhu72]

What a waste of an hour. Absolutely no useful information. The press is worthless in drilling down. No known, problematic issues addressed.

Why would anyone believe a single word that comes from this administration.....

“Our containment strategy has been working," said the White House chairman of the coronavirus task force.

But as he spoke, a coronavirus case was reported in California — and this person had not travelled to any of the affected regions of the world.

Only the Party over Country people...

I saw this was just reported. Looks like that thing that OD said wasn't certain to happen, that the doctors said was going to happen - just happened.

Looks like Germany today also had 5 new cases that could not be explained by travel or interaction with previously known case.

Looks like the community infection phase has started in two new countries, US and Germany. If I understand the criteria correctly, looks like we just crossed into pandemic mode.

[Typical Lax Dad]

[jhu72]

Looks like the administrations great new game plan is off to a great start. Communication to coordinate the efforts to fight the global outbreak has already paid big dividends. The appointment of Pence as the coronavirus czar effectively replacing Alex Azar the current head of the HHS was announced publically, as Azar was told minutes earlier, as he took the stage.

You can only guess this move was made because Azar was felt to be oversharing (with the public) his limited knowledge of what was going on. Pence will no doubt keep a lid on things that might effect the stock market.

USA USA USA

Making the coronavirus more dangerous than it has to be.

[CU88]

You need to lighten up Francis,



Such a great line!

[Kismet]

Yesterday's DOPUS lovefest by those in his administration was just what the situation needed. Only Drs. Fauci and Schuchat didn't do the usual kowtow and provided realistic outlooks and information...and hours after DOPUS told us not to worry, CDC announced the first community transmission in the US in Northern California. Both Pence and Azar suckups were embarassing.

Dow Market futures down another 400 points overnight.

[6ftstick]

So who's gonna develop and produce a vaccine for this potential pandemic and others to come?

Oh no the hideous evil greedy pharmaceutical companies.

Thank God when Bernie wins there won't be any of those left in business.

[Brooklyn]

Corona toons:








and then there's this:

[Trinity]

Japan has closed their schools for a month. Dow in fastest correction ever.

[jhu72]

Japan has closed their schools for a month. Dow in fastest correction ever.

Yup, looks like the stock market has about the same reaction to Trump's little dog and pony show yesterday as most of us here have had.

[foreverlax]

So who's gonna develop and produce a vaccine for this potential pandemic and others to come?

Oh no the hideous evil greedy pharmaceutical companies.

Thank God when Bernie wins there won't be any of those left in business.

Dear lord, do some research. Government does the work...CDC, WHO, FDA. Drug companies do the manufacturing.

Guess who actually creates most of the drugs that get FDA approval - NIH.

[jhu72]

Finally some one gets it! Finally a physician (Dr. Matt McCarthy) comes out and says publically that he is tired of hearing about vaccines, treatments, and how well we are doing. When will we have diagnostic test kits so that every healthcare organization can run their point of care tests? THIS IS PRIORITY 1!

We have no idea how many people are infected or which people are infected. We are endangering our healthcare professionals.

[Kismet]

Dr Fauci at NIH has been told not to say ANYTHING publicly without prior approval/clearance from Pence/WH.

So much for experts speaking the truth to the public. This is going to get real ugly.

DOPUS' latest Sharpie map version



Hilarious piece on yesterday's news briefing by CNN's Chris Cilizza

The 31 wildest lines from Donald Trump's self-congratulatory coronavirus press conference

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/27/politics ... index.html

best line by DOPUS

"And I think we have very good bipartisan spirit for money."

but more than a few other doozys

"Well, I don't think it's inevitable. It probably will. It possibly will. It could be at a very small level or it could be at a larger level."

"I'll be going to meetings quite a bit depending on what they want to do and what message we want to get out."

"When somebody sneezes -- I mean, I try and bail out as much as possible when there's sneezing."

"It'd be very easy for me to say, you know -- it doesn't matter what I say really."

Humina, humina, humina

[jhu72]

Dr Fauci at NIH has been told not to say ANYTHING publicly without prior approval/clearance from Pence/WH.

So much for experts speaking the truth to the public. This is going to get real ugly.

In my opinion, Fauci has always been more of a politician than a researcher. His behavior during the race to crack the secrets of AIDS / HIV was in my opinion pretty slimy.

Sitting on bad news won't work, but it should surprise no one that an autocrat like Trump would have it any other way.

[old salt]

When will we have diagnostic test kits so that every healthcare organization can run their point of care tests? THIS IS PRIORITY 1!

We have no idea how many people are infected or which people are infected. We are endangering our healthcare professionals.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... ing-in-u-s

CDC Has Fixed Issue Delaying Coronavirus Testing In U.S., Health Officials Say
February 27, 202010:01 AM ET

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, headquartered in Atlanta, announced on Wednesday a new case of the COVID-19 disease in California, a diagnosis that was delayed because testing wasn't done immediately.

Federal health officials say they have resolved a problem that has hindered wide testing for the new coronavirus in the United States, a crucial practice for fighting the spread of the dangerous new infection.

A problem with one ingredient in test kits that the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention distributed to labs around the country had created a frustrating bottleneck in testing, requiring most testing to occur at the CDC in Atlanta.

On Wednesday night, the CDC announced a new case of the COVID-19 disease in California that could represent the first U.S. case of the virus spreading within the general population. That diagnosis was delayed because testing wasn't done immediately.

But the CDC and the Food and Drug Administration informed state officials late Wednesday that the agencies have resolved the problem with the test kits.
"The FDA has authorized the use of those tests by using just the first and second step to provide a definitive diagnostic," Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said during a congressional hearing Thursday.

Forty labs — local and state public health labs as well as select department of defense labs — across the U.S. are already authorized to start using the modified test, and all 93 labs should be able to start testing by next week, Azar said.

The move was welcomed by public health officials, who have been frustrated by the testing snag.

"It's really good news," says Kelly Wroblewski, director of infectious diseases for the Association of Public Health Laboratories, which represents public health labs around the United States. "Testing is incredibly important."
Without wide-scale testing, she says, there's no way to know if the virus is spreading silently.
"This is a critical time," Wroblewski says. "We don't think it's spreading very widely yet, but if you're not looking for something, you won't find it."
Cases could go undiagnosed, delaying treatment and allowing infected people to spread the virus to others, she says.
"Once you know that it's there, you can take appropriate steps to encourage people who might have the disease to stay home — to self-quarantine. You would probably go ahead and test their family members to see if their close contacts have also got the disease," she says. "You can maybe limit the spread if you catch it early."

Frustrated by the problems with the CDC kits, the association had asked the FDA to allow individual states to develop and use their own tests. But Wroblewski says the resolution of the problem with the CDC will hopefully make that unnecessary

"Having these additional laboratories on board and ready to test is going to put us in a much, much better position to respond," Wroblewski says.

[seacoaster]

So who's gonna develop and produce a vaccine for this potential pandemic and others to come?

Oh no the hideous evil greedy pharmaceutical companies.

Thank God when Bernie wins there won't be any of those left in business.

You have to get someone on the 6Foot Home Planet to review these first. Your stupidity has a nearly magical quality sometimes.

[CU88]

"Dr. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infections Diseases, told associates that the White House had instructed him not to say anything else without clearance."

You can hear him here: http://wamu.fm/3buKAO6

DEPLORABLE

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/us/p ... pence.html

[jhu72]

When will we have diagnostic test kits so that every healthcare organization can run their point of care tests? THIS IS PRIORITY 1!

We have no idea how many people are infected or which people are infected. We are endangering our healthcare professionals.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... ing-in-u-s

CDC Has Fixed Issue Delaying Coronavirus Testing In U.S., Health Officials Say
February 27, 202010:01 AM ET

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, headquartered in Atlanta, announced on Wednesday a new case of the COVID-19 disease in California, a diagnosis that was delayed because testing wasn't done immediately.

Federal health officials say they have resolved a problem that has hindered wide testing for the new coronavirus in the United States, a crucial practice for fighting the spread of the dangerous new infection.

A problem with one ingredient in test kits that the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention distributed to labs around the country had created a frustrating bottleneck in testing, requiring most testing to occur at the CDC in Atlanta.

On Wednesday night, the CDC announced a new case of the COVID-19 disease in California that could represent the first U.S. case of the virus spreading within the general population. That diagnosis was delayed because testing wasn't done immediately.

But the CDC and the Food and Drug Administration informed state officials late Wednesday that the agencies have resolved the problem with the test kits.
"The FDA has authorized the use of those tests by using just the first and second step to provide a definitive diagnostic," Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said during a congressional hearing Thursday.

Forty labs — local and state public health labs as well as select department of defense labs — across the U.S. are already authorized to start using the modified test, and all 93 labs should be able to start testing by next week, Azar said.

The move was welcomed by public health officials, who have been frustrated by the testing snag.

"It's really good news," says Kelly Wroblewski, director of infectious diseases for the Association of Public Health Laboratories, which represents public health labs around the United States. "Testing is incredibly important."
Without wide-scale testing, she says, there's no way to know if the virus is spreading silently.
"This is a critical time," Wroblewski says. "We don't think it's spreading very widely yet, but if you're not looking for something, you won't find it."
Cases could go undiagnosed, delaying treatment and allowing infected people to spread the virus to others, she says.
"Once you know that it's there, you can take appropriate steps to encourage people who might have the disease to stay home — to self-quarantine. You would probably go ahead and test their family members to see if their close contacts have also got the disease," she says. "You can maybe limit the spread if you catch it early."

Frustrated by the problems with the CDC kits, the association had asked the FDA to allow individual states to develop and use their own tests. But Wroblewski says the resolution of the problem with the CDC will hopefully make that unnecessary

"Having these additional laboratories on board and ready to test is going to put us in a much, much better position to respond," Wroblewski says.

I had heard "talk" that this would be next week. If the above turns out to be true, its good news. I suspect this snafu has probably exacerbated the situation in Sacramento. Time will tell.

The press release gives no idea what the scale up time is to produce enough kits to meet demand so that healthcare organizations can do the test themselves. They are only talking about public health department testing, which is still suboptimal.

[jhu72]

"Dr. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infections Diseases, told associates that the White House had instructed him not to say anything else without clearance."

You can hear him here: http://wamu.fm/3buKAO6

DEPLORABLE

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/us/p ... pence.html

The appointment of Dr. Birx is a good thing. At least there is a subject matter expert finally at the top of the food chain. Azar I think tried to do a conscientious job, but he was so clearly out of his depth. No medical / scientific background, a lawyer with big pharma CEO experience isn't what you need.

Problem is, Pence hanging around is the politburo official who will act to keep everything secret if it doesn't align with King Trump's world view.

Fauci at least had enough integrity to make it clear he was being muzzled. I am just not sure it was necessary. I think Fauci would have played ball willingly under the right circumstances.