THE 2019 Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

[Drcthru]

IF the time comes sooner than later, Hopkins will have its pick of some of the finest young coaches in the nation. Shawn Nadelen has done a tremendous job at Towson, and it is difficult to see him turning down the Hopkins head coaching job if he is offered it.

Having said that ... season’s not over for the Blue Jays. Yes, there is a very real chance Hopkins may not make the B1G tournament, much less the NCAAs. Even so, despite the doubters, I think this year’s very flawed and frequently frustrating Blue Jay squad has the talent and potential to reach the Final Four. Likely? Not at all. But realistically possible? I think the potential is there.

And if Petro leads the Blue Jays to the Final Four, he’s going to get a nice contract extension and this conversation will be moot.

DocBarrister

In your dreams, unless sarcasm!

[get it to x]

IF the time comes sooner than later, Hopkins will have its pick of some of the finest young coaches in the nation. Shawn Nadelen has done a tremendous job at Towson, and it is difficult to see him turning down the Hopkins head coaching job if he is offered it.

Having said that ... season’s not over for the Blue Jays. Yes, there is a very real chance Hopkins may not make the B1G tournament, much less the NCAAs. Even so, despite the doubters, I think this year’s very flawed and frequently frustrating Blue Jay squad has the talent and potential to reach the Final Four. Likely? Not at all. But realistically possible? I think the potential is there.

And if Petro leads the Blue Jays to the Final Four, he’s going to get a nice contract extension and this conversation will be moot.

DocBarrister

I'm not throwing dirt on Petro's grave just yet but any Final Four talk is in "Unicorn territory". I'll throw out a name, although I'm not even sure he would take the job if offered, and that's Jim Moorhead. He's doing a little coaching at St. Mary's Annapolis and he won a lot of big games in his time as their coach.

[DocBarrister]

IF the time comes sooner than later, Hopkins will have its pick of some of the finest young coaches in the nation. Shawn Nadelen has done a tremendous job at Towson, and it is difficult to see him turning down the Hopkins head coaching job if he is offered it.

Having said that ... season’s not over for the Blue Jays. Yes, there is a very real chance Hopkins may not make the B1G tournament, much less the NCAAs. Even so, despite the doubters, I think this year’s very flawed and frequently frustrating Blue Jay squad has the talent and potential to reach the Final Four. Likely? Not at all. But realistically possible? I think the potential is there.

And if Petro leads the Blue Jays to the Final Four, he’s going to get a nice contract extension and this conversation will be moot.

DocBarrister

In your dreams, unless sarcasm!

Well, if I recall, the National Champion 2016 North Carolina Tar Heels lost six games before the NCAA tournament, including to a Hofstra team that hadn’t played a game (Heels already had two games under their belts) and a 2-4 UMass team.

Blue Jays still hold their fate entirely in their own hands. They have plenty of talent and their losses have been to four top-ranked teams. Obviously, everyone needs to take their game to the next level, but the opportunity is there if they are willing to work for it. It’s a very good thing (not at all a bad thing) that the B1G is loaded with great teams. Great opportunities to improve and gain some stellar quality wins.

Won’t be easy, but the opportunity is there. Blue Jays can’t ask for more.

As for you “fans” and “alumni” who have already given up on them ... why even watch? Spare us your whining and root for the Jays, like we real fans and alumni do.

DocBarrister

[Hawkeye]

Won’t be easy, but the opportunity is there. Blue Jays can’t ask for more.

As for you “fans” and “alumni” who have already given up on them ... why even watch? Spare us your whining and root for the Jays, like we real fans and alumni do.

I'm like you. I will support this team until the post-season is a mathematical impossibility, or Hopkins loses in the tournament. Even if I see issues on the field and with the program. I'm not going to cut off my nose to spite my face.

Go Blue Jays!

[Big Dog]

I will support this team until the post-season is a mathematical impossibility...

That's not an option on Doc's watch.

[Drcthru]

IF the time comes sooner than later, Hopkins will have its pick of some of the finest young coaches in the nation. Shawn Nadelen has done a tremendous job at Towson, and it is difficult to see him turning down the Hopkins head coaching job if he is offered it.

Having said that ... season’s not over for the Blue Jays. Yes, there is a very real chance Hopkins may not make the B1G tournament, much less the NCAAs. Even so, despite the doubters, I think this year’s very flawed and frequently frustrating Blue Jay squad has the talent and potential to reach the Final Four. Likely? Not at all. But realistically possible? I think the potential is there.

And if Petro leads the Blue Jays to the Final Four, he’s going to get a nice contract extension and this conversation will be moot.

DocBarrister

In your dreams, unless sarcasm!

Well, if I recall, the National Champion 2016 North Carolina Tar Heels lost six games before the NCAA tournament, including to a Hofstra team that hadn’t played a game (Heels already had two games under their belts) and a 2-4 UMass team.

Blue Jays still hold their fate entirely in their own hands. They have plenty of talent and their losses have been to four top-ranked teams. Obviously, everyone needs to take their game to the next level, but the opportunity is there if they are willing to work for it. It’s a very good thing (not at all a bad thing) that the B1G is loaded with great teams. Great opportunities to improve and gain some stellar quality wins.

Won’t be easy, but the opportunity is there. Blue Jays can’t ask for more.

As for you “fans” and “alumni” who have already given up on them ... why even watch? Spare us your whining and root for the Jays, like we real fans and alumni do.

DocBarrister

I am as big a fan of the Jays as anyone and will be at the homecoming game. To believe that this team is a FF candidate is wishful at best. I can only hope.

[genesrfree]

This year to me has seemed to be an uncharacteristic season thus far for many teams; PSU #1, Virginia resurgence, ND and DU not lighting things up, Yale has lost, Navy down, High Point with some big wins loses to JU, OSU with one loss, MND loses to PSU, Princeton beats DU.

Is it parity? I don't know, not yet at least but lots of lacrosse to go, specially the meat grinder of a BIG season remaining. A really good week of practice can make a big difference for many teams at this point. If the team is improving then they are moving in the right direction. I wouldn't count Hopkins out just yet.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

Sure, that’s what my financial man OC has told me for years, the common warning:

Prior performance is no guarantee of future results.

Usually comes out like this though:

Prost prfomance is na godrandam of fucre resluts.

[Hawkeye]

Is it parity? I don't know, not yet at least but lots of lacrosse to go, specially the meat grinder of a BIG season remaining. A really good week of practice can make a big difference for many teams at this point. If the team is improving then they are moving in the right direction. I wouldn't count Hopkins out just yet.

Me neither, but the margin for error is now basically zero. Gotta have the next two.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

Laf’s LaxBytes update:

http://laxbytes.com/2019/binmenstats/ncaapb01.php

21% chance of getting the AQ, only a 4% chance of an at large bid.

Interesting, because I’ve never tracked how laf is computing AQ probabilities, but Penn State, Hopkins and Rutgers are all 1-0 B1G and are listed just above 20%, while the weekend losers, MD tOSU, and UM are around 11% each.

Those numbers are obviously going to swing B1Gly each week, driven by conference W-L of course.

[DocBarrister]

Joey Epstein named the B1G freshman lacrosse player of the week for the third time this season, I believe.

As good as advertised ....

DocBarrister

[jhu06]

Laf’s LaxBytes update:

http://laxbytes.com/2019/binmenstats/ncaapb01.php

21% chance of getting the AQ, only a 4% chance of an at large bid.

Interesting, because I’ve never tracked how laf is computing AQ probabilities, but Penn State, Hopkins and Rutgers are all 1-0 B1G and are listed just above 20%, while the weekend losers, MD tOSU, and UM are around 11% each.

Those numbers are obviously going to swing B1Gly each week, driven by conference W-L of course.

tournaments and all that other stuff are meaningless if we don't win saturday and probably the next 2 saturdays after that. Part of me has thought this week that some of you are already teeing up your devices so you can be the first to start a Hopkins lacrosse 2020 thread saturday night if we lose, and it feels really weird to type 2020.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

Laf’s LaxBytes update:

http://laxbytes.com/2019/binmenstats/ncaapb01.php

21% chance of getting the AQ, only a 4% chance of an at large bid.

Interesting, because I’ve never tracked how laf is computing AQ probabilities, but Penn State, Hopkins and Rutgers are all 1-0 B1G and are listed just above 20%, while the weekend losers, MD tOSU, and UM are around 11% each.

Those numbers are obviously going to swing B1Gly each week, driven by conference W-L of course.

tournaments and all that other stuff are meaningless if we don't win saturday and probably the next 2 saturdays after that. Part of me has thought this week that some of you are already teeing up your devices so you can be the first to start a Hopkins lacrosse 2020 thread saturday night if we lose, and it feels really weird to type 2020.

I’m not planning to do that. Actually no one should, because all of these Team 2019 threads are in a 2019 D1 Forum.

We will need Admin to create the 2020 D1 Forum.

We should just keep posting here until the season has become stinking, rotting disgusting carrion.

I’m like Farmers Insurance. I’ve smelled a thing or two.

I smell one coming.

Ba ba baba bum bum.

[OCanada]

Are the percentages Larry’s numbers or a different formula? I ask because Larry has legal rights to it but I don’t know the status of itcrekarive to the previous owner and possible non compete clauses etc

[Big Dog]

21% for the AQ makes no sense since we haven't beaten anyone (yet).

[DALaxDad]

We should just keep posting here until the season has become stinking, rotting disgusting carrion.

I’m like Farmers Insurance. I’ve smelled a thing or two.

My Bears are AQ or bust so you get no shade from me. If you detect an odor, it might be this:

Bluejays..JPG (154.95 KiB) Viewed 3036 times

[DocBarrister]

21% for the AQ makes no sense since we haven't beaten anyone (yet).

Well, the win over Michigan was a necessary step towards the B1G AQ.

Blue Jays also have wins over a couple of teams that may turn out to be quality wins: North Carolina and Delaware.

Think the math remains simple: (1) four more wins (any four wins) and Hopkins is in the NCAAs; (2) three more wins and the Blue Jays are a bubble team needing some help; and (3) two or fewer wins, and Hopkins will not reach the NCAA tournament.

DocBarrister

[HopFan16]

Think the math remains simple: (1) four more wins (any four wins) and Hopkins is in the NCAAs; (2) three more wins and the Blue Jays are a bubble team needing some help; and (3) two or fewer wins, and Hopkins will not reach the NCAA tournament.

DocBarrister

In general this is probably true, but just to be nitpicky, if we only get two more wins but those wins are over Penn State and Maryland, that'd put us at 3-2 in the conference (and a spot in the Big Ten tourney) with two top 5 RPI wins. That would probably be enough to get into the NCAAs. So it depends which two wins we get. Obviously right now, beating either PSU or Maryland seems farfetched—let alone both of them.

First thing's first, win on Saturday.

Rutgers has one of the best man-down units in the country, and they're not going to foul the Jays 9 times like Michigan did. So we're not going to be able to count on EMO opportunities. The 6v6 offense simply must play better. Win some faceoffs, get a solid outing from Darby, take care of the ball, maybe we're 2-0 in the conference with a light at the end of the tunnel. But anything short of that won't get it done.

Saturday afternoon in Baltimore is looking like mid 60s and sunny. Crowd should be great.

[DocBarrister]

Think the math remains simple: (1) four more wins (any four wins) and Hopkins is in the NCAAs; (2) three more wins and the Blue Jays are a bubble team needing some help; and (3) two or fewer wins, and Hopkins will not reach the NCAA tournament.

DocBarrister

In general this is probably true, but just to be nitpicky, if we only get two more wins but those wins are over Penn State and Maryland, that'd put us at 3-2 in the conference (and a spot in the Big Ten tourney) with two top 5 RPI wins. That would probably be enough to get into the NCAAs. So it depends which two wins we get. Obviously right now, beating either PSU or Maryland seems farfetched—let alone both of them.

First thing's first, win on Saturday.

Rutgers has one of the best man-down units in the country, and they're not going to foul the Jays 9 times like Michigan did. So we're not going to be able to count on EMO opportunities. The 6v6 offense simply must play better. Win some faceoffs, get a solid outing from Darby, take care of the ball, maybe we're 2-0 in the conference with a light at the end of the tunnel. But anything short of that won't get it done.

Saturday afternoon in Baltimore is looking like mid 60s and sunny. Crowd should be great.

I respectfully disagree about two wins, even with the wins being over Maryland and Penn State. That will leave Hopkins 7-7 at best, and in all likelihood one of those two teams will drop out of the RPI top 5. Maryland and Penn State will almost certainly be in the NCAAs, and the likely third B1G spot will probably go to Ohio State or Rutgers, especially with a head-to-head win over Hopkins. Math just doesn’t work out.

Three more wins for a fighting chance. Four more wins for a secure NCAA berth. Five more wins for a certain top-8 seed. Six more wins for a top-4 seed.

But you’re absolutely right ... Blue Jays need to get their Homecoming win against Rutgers, which won’t be easy.

DocBarrister

[Big Dog]

Blue Jays also have wins over a couple of teams that may turn out to be quality wins: North Carolina and Delaware.

Which is why I qualified with 'yet'.

As of today, Carolina is #20 RPI and out of the NCAA hunt, so beating them is little help (other than a W) for making a case for JHU's large bid. Delaware is #33 in RPI, so they'd have to run the table to make it meaningful for The Hop. In other words, those were expected wins for any team with tourney expectations.

In any event, the next few Saturday's are critical. Gotta take 'em one at a time and show Rutgers what Hopkins' lacrosse is all about.