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Posted: **Mon Apr 17, 2023 1:24 pm**

chosen1lax wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 12:24 pm Just looking at the media polls and assuming that this poll will follow suit.

Can someone tell me who Rutgers has beaten this year that deserves all of the love they are getting? Same with Cuse, nice they played on ESPN and beat a 7-5 UNC team.

Jville 11-2 with a win over Duke
BU pushing forward at 8-3
St. Joes quietly running away with the A10

Media bias to some teams as well as recency bias dominating the ballots

Here's where I had Rutgers, and in comparison the teams in directly in front and behind them, plus the other teams you mentioned:

8. (16/10=1.60) Georgetown 7-3 Princeton (4), Richmond (3). High Point (2), Lehigh (3), Denver (4), Providence (1), Marquette (2) (Hopkins -1, Penn -1, ND -1)

9. (17/12=1.4167) Rutgers 8-4 Marist (1), Stony Brook (1), St John’s (1), Loyola (3), Utah (4), Princeton (4), UMass (3), Michigan (4) (Army -1, Ohio State -1, hopkins -1, Maryland -1)

10. (16/12=1.3333) Villanova 9-3 Penn State (5), Delaware (3), Hofstra (1), Drexel (1), Penn (5), Monmouth (1), Navy (1), St Johns (1), Providence(1) (Yale -1, Brown, -1, Denver -1 )

15. 12/11=1.0909) Boston U 8-3 Bryant (3), UMass (3), Colgate (1), Bucknell (1), Holy Cross (1), Harvard (3), Lafayette (1), Loyola (3) (Vermont -1, Navy -2, Yale -1 )

17. (13/13=1.0000) Jacksonville 11-2 Marist (1), Duke (6), High Point (2), UMass Lowell (1), St Johns (1), Mercer (1), Cleveland State (1), Queens (1), Lindwood(1) (Hopkins -1, Utah -1)

18. (13/13= 1.0 Syracuse 8-5 Vermont (4), Albany (2), Holy Cross (1), Hofstra (1) Hobart (1) st bon (1) Princeton (4), UNC (4) (Maryland -1, UNC -1, Duke -1, Hopkins -1, ND -1)

NR (5/12=0.4167) St. Joe’s 8-4 Sacred Heart (1), Towson (1), Providence (1), St Johns (1), Richmond (3), Monmouth (1), St Bon (1), Hobart (1) (Hopkins-1, Penn -1, Drexel -2, Duke-1)

Posted: **Mon Apr 17, 2023 1:26 pm**

ICGrad wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 12:56 pm
Matnum PI wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 12:41 pm 10 Ohio State
That right there is all we need to know about the FanLax computer.

Forum has them at... #23. Holy crow. I'm with the Computer on this one. Good wins (UNC, RU), not bad losses (Denver, JHU, PSU).

Posted: **Mon Apr 17, 2023 1:29 pm**

RD,

No Delaware in your top 25. Out of curiosity where did they come in formulaically?

Posted: **Mon Apr 17, 2023 1:30 pm**

Matnum PI wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 1:26 pm
ICGrad wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 12:56 pm
Matnum PI wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 12:41 pm 10 Ohio State
That right there is all we need to know about the FanLax computer.
Forum has them at... #23. Holy crow. I'm with the Computer on this one. Good wins (UNC, RU), not bad losses (Denver, JHU, PSU).

Ohio State not in my top 30. Too many losses.

(5/12=0.4167) Ohio State 5-7 Air Force (2), Cleveland State (1), UNC (4), Rutgers (4), Detroit (1) (UVA -1, Cornell -1, ND -1, Denver -1, Penn State -1, Maryland -1, Hopkins -1)

Posted: **Mon Apr 17, 2023 1:32 pm**

HGK wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 1:29 pm RD,

No Delaware in your top 25. Out of curiosity where did they come in formulaically?

Just outside at 27. Hurt by SOS.

27. (7/12=0.5833) Delaware 9-3 Lafayette (1), Mt St Marys (1) , St Johns (1), UMBC (2), Monmouth (1) hof 1, Hampton 1, Fairfield (1), Stony Brook (1) (Villanova -1, Michigan -1, Hopkins -1)

Posted: **Mon Apr 17, 2023 1:35 pm**

rolldodge wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 1:30 pm Ohio State not in my top 30. Too many losses.

OSU could be 3-9 and still deserve to be #10. For example if they lost to #1 through #9 and beat #11, #12, and #13, logically, in theory, they should be #10. Losses aren't necessarily a bad thing. Especially if you lose to a higher-ranked team.

Posted: **Mon Apr 17, 2023 1:49 pm**

Matnum PI wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 1:26 pm
ICGrad wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 12:56 pm
Matnum PI wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 12:41 pm 10 Ohio State
That right there is all we need to know about the FanLax computer.
Forum has them at... #23. Holy crow. I'm with the Computer on this one. Good wins (UNC, RU), not bad losses (Denver, JHU, PSU).

It's not the "quality" of the losses; it's the volume.

Thinking like this is what enabled crappy John Hopkins teams to skate into the playoffs undeservedly for the better part of a decade with records like 8-7 and 8-6. "Meh" wins and a bunch of losses to top 12 teams does not a top 10 team make.

Until the FanLax computer considers number of losses (and not just "quality" of losses) it will be useless as a ranking methodology.

Posted: **Mon Apr 17, 2023 2:10 pm**

ICGrad wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 1:49 pm
Matnum PI wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 1:26 pm
ICGrad wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 12:56 pm
Matnum PI wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 12:41 pm 10 Ohio State
That right there is all we need to know about the FanLax computer.
Forum has them at... #23. Holy crow. I'm with the Computer on this one. Good wins (UNC, RU), not bad losses (Denver, JHU, PSU).
It's not the "quality" of the losses; it's the volume.

Thinking like this is what enabled crappy John Hopkins teams to skate into the playoffs undeservedly for the better part of a decade with records like 8-7 and 8-6. "Meh" wins and a bunch of losses to top 12 teams does not a top 10 team make.

Until the FanLax computer considers number of losses (and not just "quality" of losses) it will be useless as a ranking methodology.

All this really does not matter, I highly doubt OSU will make it to .500 by tourney time and be ineligible for post season play.
Win your games people, take care of business and dont leave your fate in the hands of the committee.

Posted: **Mon Apr 17, 2023 2:46 pm**

ICGrad wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 1:49 pm ...Until the FanLax computer considers number of losses (and not just "quality" of losses) it will be useless as a ranking methodology.

Matnum PI wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 1:35 pm OSU could be 3-9 and still deserve to be #10. For example if they lost to #1 through #9 and beat #11, #12, and #13, logically, in theory, they should be #10. Losses aren't necessarily a bad thing. Especially if you lose to a higher-ranked team.

Posted: **Mon Apr 17, 2023 2:51 pm**

Am I reading the rpi wrong that Cornell and JHU are ahead of Maryland?

Posted: **Mon Apr 17, 2023 3:02 pm**

Current RPI:

: rpi.jpg (175.89 KiB) Viewed 688 times

https://pro.lacrossereference.com/rpi-d ... ifospeivmd

Posted: **Mon Apr 17, 2023 3:11 pm**

Matnum PI wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 1:35 pm Losses aren't necessarily a bad thing.

Losses are always a bad thing. Some losses have more of a negative impact than others, but any loss is a bad thing and should negatively impact a team's ranking.

Repeated blow-out losses to every top-10 team on your schedule is indicative that you are not a top 10 team. You are essentially rewarding OSU for being in a position to schedule a bunch of top 10 teams and disregarding the fact that in every single one of those games, they were thoroughly embarrassed. Instead of being dinged for those losses, they are rewarded.

OSU was a Top 10 team, per your methodology, before they ever took the field because they scheduled games against 6 top 10 teams, and your methodology doesn't care at all how they fared in those games. That is, to say the least, absurd.

3 of OSUs 5 wins (against 7! losses) are to teams well outside the top 30. Their other two wins are against teams in the top 20. They are 2-7 in their 9 games, and all but one of those losses have been blow-outs (the Cornell game, which was a 3 goal loss, was nowhere near as close as the final score indicated).

Posted: **Mon Apr 17, 2023 3:16 pm**

CU77 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 3:02 pm Current RPI:

rpi.jpg

https://pro.lacrossereference.com/rpi-d ... ifospeivmd

Thanks. The formula needs adjustment. Winning at Uva is a lot harder than beating geargetown at home in early February. Rutgers is harder to quantify, but 16 coaches in a row know that's an extraordinary win.

Posted: **Mon Apr 17, 2023 3:24 pm**

ICGrad wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 3:11 pm Losses are always a bad thing. Some losses have more of a negative impact than others, but any loss is a bad thing and should negatively impact a team's ranking.

I disagree. #1 plays #8 or whatever. #1 wins. Does this mean the #8 team ranking needs to be adjusted? I would argue, most certainly no. I would say that the loss only proves that the ranking is correct. #8 beats #1, that's a different story...

ICGrad wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 3:11 pm Instead of being dinged for those losses, they are rewarded... OSU was a Top 10 team, per your methodology, before they ever took the field because they scheduled games against 6 top 10 teams, and your methodology doesn't care at all how they fared in those games. That is, to say the least, absurd.

Agreed. Beyond absurd... which is why the FanLax Ranking has nothing to do with what you're describing. Instead of being dinged for losses they get rewarded? IC, you're thinking of a different ranking system...

Posted: **Mon Apr 17, 2023 3:25 pm**

keno in reno wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 3:16 pm
CU77 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 3:02 pm Current RPI:

rpi.jpg

https://pro.lacrossereference.com/rpi-d ... ifospeivmd
Thanks. The formula needs adjustment. Winning at Uva is a lot harder than beating geargetown at home in early February. Rutgers is harder to quantify, but 16 coaches in a row know that's an extraordinary win.

Where is this row of coaches?

Posted: **Mon Apr 17, 2023 4:03 pm**

CU77 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 3:02 pm Current RPI:

rpi.jpg

https://pro.lacrossereference.com/rpi-d ... ifospeivmd

Will be interesting to see how 15-25 changes through season end as
Those marginal 20th RPI wins / losses seem to become fairly critical to the last few at larges most years.

Posted: **Mon Apr 17, 2023 4:11 pm**

I like this season. More up in the air than many. I realize to non at large bid leagues playoffs and rankings are super critical but for championship purposes how many teams, and which ones, do folks think have a “good” shot at a title this year?

It sure folks will whine about my list but I have 6 in my opinion:

ND
Duke
UVA
MD
Cornell
Penn St

I’m on the edge on PSU and they and Hop are close to me. After that I don’t think the rest will realistically be in the mix on Memorial Day.

The one outlier off they could rapidly mature and faceoffs hold up to me would be Syracuse slipping in and catching fire with all those fr

Posted: **Mon Apr 17, 2023 4:23 pm**

Interesting how much variance there is in the Forum Poll on Yale. They finish ranked #15 in the Forum Poll, with wins over Denver (#10 Forum Poll), Villanova (#13 Forum Poll), and BU (#21 Forum Poll), and losses to Cornell (#5 Forum Poll), Penn State (#6 Forum Poll), Penn (#14 Forum Poll), and Princeton (#22 Forum Poll).

Range in Forum Poll for Yale:
1-10 1 vote (l'etat c'est moi)
11-15 5 votes
16 - 20 4 votes
20 - 25 1 vote
Not Ranked 1 vote

My guess is that the difference depends on factors such as whether you place a lot of reliance on RPI (Yale is #9); you give them credit for playing well recently (3 game winning streak); whether you mark them down significantly for 2 non-competitive losses (ugly blowout losses to Cornell and Princeton); whether they've got a "Notre Dame problem" of too few games (they only play 12 total before the Ivy tournament and are 6-4); and how much, aside from Yale's own record, you're bumping down the entire Ivy League for its mediocre out of conference showing this year.

My own ranking of Yale at #10 is based mainly on the RPI of 9 (scientific); a solid out of conference performance (close loss to PSU and wins over Denver, Villanova, BU and UMass -- which is another way of saying: RPI) and my thought (hope!) that they've turned the corner and are playing their best lacrosse. I can see any ranking from 11 - 20 but it's harder for me to reconcile Yale being outside the top 20 or 25 (I guess the argument is they don't have "bad losses" but they've "lost badly" in 2 out of their 4 losses).

Posted: **Mon Apr 17, 2023 4:41 pm**

The Orfling wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 4:23 pm Interesting how much variance there is in the Forum Poll on Yale. They finish ranked #15 in the Forum Poll, with wins over Denver (#10 Forum Poll), Villanova (#13 Forum Poll), and BU (#21 Forum Poll), and losses to Cornell (#5 Forum Poll), Penn State (#6 Forum Poll), Penn (#14 Forum Poll), and Princeton (#22 Forum Poll).

Range in Forum Poll for Yale:
1-10 1 vote (l'etat c'est moi)
11-15 5 votes
16 - 20 4 votes
20 - 25 1 vote
Not Ranked 1 vote

My guess is that the difference depends on factors such as whether you place a lot of reliance on RPI (Yale is #9); you give them credit for playing well recently (3 game winning streak); whether you mark them down significantly for 2 non-competitive losses (ugly blowout losses to Cornell and Princeton); whether they've got a "Notre Dame problem" of too few games (they only play 12 total before the Ivy tournament and are 6-4); and how much, aside from Yale's own record, you're bumping down the entire Ivy League for its mediocre out of conference showing this year.

My own ranking of Yale at #10 is based mainly on the RPI of 9 (scientific); a solid out of conference performance (close loss to PSU and wins over Denver, Villanova, BU and UMass -- which is another way of saying: RPI) and my thought (hope!) that they've turned the corner and are playing their best lacrosse. I can see any ranking from 11 - 20 but it's harder for me to reconcile Yale being outside the top 20 or 25 (I guess the argument is they don't have "bad losses" but they've "lost badly" in 2 out of their 4 losses).

Good win profile. That defense is hard to see a top ten team with but having them on the cusp is fine if on the optimistic side to me

Posted: **Mon Apr 17, 2023 5:29 pm**

Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 4:11 pm
The one outlier off they could rapidly mature and faceoffs hold up to me would be Syracuse slipping in and catching fire with all those fr

In discussing outliers, I'd put forward Georgetown (knock on wood). When looking at Syracuse and their faceoff issues, there's no obvious path to a turnaround there. With Georgetown, their biggest issue right now is goaltending. And they have an AA keeper they can bring off the bench to address it.

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