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Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Tue Apr 11, 2023 7:44 am
by 44WeWantMore
Many numerical algorithms use a starting point. Without one, early-season results look funny. That is why Power Rankings only start to stabilize after half a season. So, the FanLax computer judges best wins and worst losses using the FanLax Forum Poll. Rumor has it that Massey starts with last year's results, as does ELO. And I suppose the algorithm in question uses RPI as a starting point, and then assigns "points" based on wins and losses relative to the RPI standings to derive another view into the rankings. I thank all the alternative assessors.
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Tue Apr 11, 2023 7:59 am
by rolldodge
44WeWantMore wrote: ↑Tue Apr 11, 2023 7:44 am
Many numerical algorithms use a starting point. Without one, early-season results look funny. That is why Power Rankings only start to stabilize after half a season. So, the FanLax computer judges best wins and worst losses using the FanLax Forum Poll. Rumor has it that Massey starts with last year's results, as does ELO. And I suppose the algorithm in question uses RPI as a starting point, and then assigns "points" based on wins and losses relative to the RPI standings to derive another view into the rankings. I thank all the alternative assessors.
Yep. The idea is to be somewhat analogous to how the the tournament selection committee buckets teams. But extended to the top 40 teams to better assess the 15-30 ranking slots. I think it’s particularly useful for helping tease out those last 10 spots in the poll. Interestingly to me, an undefeated team whose only wins were all outside of the top 40 would end up with a score of 1.0 which would put them around 17 in this weeks poll.
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Tue Apr 11, 2023 8:46 am
by ICGrad
joewillie78 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 11, 2023 7:31 am
Egads. Does that make him even more of a homer than yours truly?
Just curious.
Gobigred
Joewillie78
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Tue Apr 11, 2023 9:02 am
by wgdsr
ICGrad wrote: ↑Tue Apr 11, 2023 8:46 am
joewillie78 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 11, 2023 7:31 am
Egads. Does that make him even more of a homer than yours truly?
Just curious.
Gobigred
Joewillie78
he and michael just really like straight rpi rankings now that hop has a top 5 rpi.
#rpiforever
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2023 6:35 pm
by joewillie78
HooDat wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2023 2:44 pm
ICGrad wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2023 2:18 pm
joewillie78 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2023 2:11 pm
Hoo Dat with Bellarmine at #6. Interesting.
Gobigred
Joewillie78
This is interesting.
I almost ranked Bellarmine, but gave their spot to my honorary honorees, Quinnipiac.
Admittedly, the Mercer loss is a LOT to forgive, but their only other two losses are to Duke and Utah (also ranked by me). Eight might be high, but gotta reward winning....
Hmmm...is Bellarmine really the 6th or 8th best team in the country?
I have them around 30th at best.
I would hope in your next poll that they may slide a bit, or was today's loss a good loss?
Gobigred
Joewillie78
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2023 7:03 pm
by ICGrad
joewillie78 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 12, 2023 6:35 pm
I would hope in your next poll that they may slide a bit, or was today's loss a good loss?
Gobigred
Joewillie78
You just know those RoMo boys saw the fan poll thread this week, read HooDat's poll, circled their calendars and declared excitedly: "Boys, that there's our chance to take down the #6 team in the country!"
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2023 7:27 pm
by MoralTerpitude
joewillie78 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 11, 2023 7:31 am
ICGrad wrote: ↑Tue Apr 11, 2023 7:20 am
DocBarrister wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2023 10:16 pm
I have never understood how a team that is a top 5 RPI win (e.g., Johns Hopkins at RPI #4) can count as a top 5 win for other teams but not be ranked as a top 5 team.
Doesn’t make sense at all.
DocBarrister
What you gotta love about Doc is that he doesn't just defend Hopkins against naysayers, ne'er-do-wells, and insults. Nay, he patrols the forums looking for anything that might be seen as a perceived slight against the Blue Jays, however indirect or unintentionial, and immediately jumps in to defend the stain on their honor.
No sooner have the fan polls been published than Doc, who doesn't even participate in the enterprise, has spotted with his eagle eye that Hopkins has been left off a ballot and immediately insinuates conspiratorial nefarious intent on the part of the errant pollster.
Someone publishes the result of their ranking algorithm and Doc's eagle-eye again hones in on a perceived injustice to the Blue Jays and questions the entire enterprise.
Me, I'm just glad he didn't notice that I *gasp* ranked Cornell above Hopkins in my fan poll. The shame, the shame...
Egads. Does that make him even more of a homer than yours truly?
Just curious.
Gobigred
Joewillie78
Impossible! Well… actually, possible.
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2023 7:42 pm
by joewillie78
ICGrad wrote: ↑Wed Apr 12, 2023 7:03 pm
joewillie78 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 12, 2023 6:35 pm
I would hope in your next poll that they may slide a bit, or was today's loss a good loss?
Gobigred
Joewillie78
You just know those RoMo boys saw the fan poll thread this week, read HooDat's poll, circled their calendars and declared excitedly: "Boys, that there's our chance to take down the #6 team in the country!"
Now that's hilarious. Thanks for a good laugh.
Gobigred
Joewillie78
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2023 9:46 am
by HooDat
joewillie78 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 12, 2023 6:35 pm
Hmmm...is Bellarmine really the 6th or 8th best team in the country?
I have them around 30th at best.
I would hope in your next poll that they may slide a bit, or was today's loss a good loss?
My answer to your question - nope, it is a bad loss. But I caveat that with the fact that I am not a subscriber to the "good loss' school of lacrosse rankings. That is not to say I don't think an OT loss between two evenly matched teams is not different than a blow out - but if you mean "good loss" as a euphemism for:
let's prop up the old boy network, then count me out.
And yes, at this point I expect Bellarmine to slide more than a bit in my next poll. Villanova and St. Joe's had similar trajectories...
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2023 12:07 pm
by joewillie78
I agree 100%. No such thing as a good loss. Every loss stinks whether it's to #1 or #75.
I hate losing and feel much better beating a so called lesser team than losing to the so called better teams.
I loved Cornell playing Md. Tough in the NC game but still hated losing it.
Gobigred
Joewillie78
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2023 2:08 pm
by nms
FanLax Computer wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2023 1:25 pm
ICGrad wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2023 1:20 pm
...OSU has lost 6 of 8; in 5 of those 6 losses, they weren't competitive. As in: The game was all-but over by halftime. Of their 5 wins, two are against good teams, the other 3 are against, to put it mildly, "lesser" programs. To their credit, the did take care of business against Detroit Mercy.
Like many humans, you're prejudiced...
As I understand it, if, in a team's first six games, it beats its three best opponents of the season, and loses to its three worst opponents of the season, then whatever they do in the rest of the season does not matter in your system. they could finish 12-3 or 3-12 and would have the same rating.
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2023 2:48 pm
by ICGrad
nms wrote: ↑Thu Apr 13, 2023 2:08 pm
FanLax Computer wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2023 1:25 pm
ICGrad wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2023 1:20 pm
...OSU has lost 6 of 8; in 5 of those 6 losses, they weren't competitive. As in: The game was all-but over by halftime. Of their 5 wins, two are against good teams, the other 3 are against, to put it mildly, "lesser" programs. To their credit, the did take care of business against Detroit Mercy.
Like many humans, you're prejudiced...
As I understand it, if, in a team's first six games, it beats its three best opponents of the season, and loses to its three worst opponents of the season, then whatever they do in the rest of the season does not matter in your system. they could finish 12-3 or 3-12 and would have the same rating.
Interesting...
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Mon Apr 17, 2023 8:45 am
by Matnum PI
Reminder: FanLax Forum Polls are due on Monday (Today) at noon EST. Enjoy this weekend's games.
Forum Poll Link (with Submission Links towards the bottom of the page). All are welcome to submit a ranking.
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Mon Apr 17, 2023 12:20 pm
by Matnum PI
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Mon Apr 17, 2023 12:24 pm
by chosen1lax
Just looking at the media polls and assuming that this poll will follow suit.
Can someone tell me who Rutgers has beaten this year that deserves all of the love they are getting? Same with Cuse, nice they played on ESPN and beat a 7-5 UNC team.
Jville 11-2 with a win over Duke
BU pushing forward at 8-3
St. Joes quietly running away with the A10
Media bias to some teams as well as recency bias dominating the ballots
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Mon Apr 17, 2023 12:41 pm
by Matnum PI
chosen1lax wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 12:24 pm
... Can someone tell me who Rutgers has beaten this year that deserves all of the love they are getting? Same with Cuse, nice they played on ESPN and beat a 7-5 UNC team... Jville 11-2 with a win over Duke... Media bias to some teams as well as recency bias dominating the ballots
This is how the FanLax Computer has 'em. RU at #16 (vs. Forum's 11), agreed. RU is getting too much love. Their losses are not terrible but their Ws are not great. SU at #11 (vs. 13), SU doesn't have great wins but they also don't have any bad losses. J'ville at #20 (vs. Forum's 16) with a W over Duke but their next best wins are High Point and Cleveland State as well as a loss to Utah. J'ville has 1 big win which is great but 1 game does not a season make.
1 Notre Dame
2 Virginia
3 Duke
4 Maryland
5 Penn State
6 Cornell
7 Georgetown
8 Johns Hopkins
9 Yale
10 Ohio State
11 Syracuse
12 Villanova
13 Army
14 Penn
15 North Carolina
16 Rutgers
17 Michigan
18 Denver
19 Princeton
20 Jacksonville
21 Loyola
22 Utah
23 Lehigh
24 UMass
25 Harvard
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Mon Apr 17, 2023 12:55 pm
by ICGrad
chosen1lax wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 12:24 pm
Just looking at the media polls and assuming that this poll will follow suit.
Can someone tell me who Rutgers has beaten this year that deserves all of the love they are getting? Same with Cuse, nice they played on ESPN and beat a 7-5 UNC team.
Jville 11-2 with a win over Duke
BU pushing forward at 8-3
St. Joes quietly running away with the A10
Media bias to some teams as well as recency bias dominating the ballots
Fair questions.
I should probably have St. Joe's ranked.
Rutgers has a couple of nice wins, but nothing outstanding. Same with Syracuse. Both probably benefit from ACC/Big10 bias.
I can't imagine hoe Ohio State is still ranked. Every time I watch one of their games they're getting the snot kicked out of them. Terry Foy, I think, was saying less than a week ago that the Big10 could well get 6 teams in; I don't see it.
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Mon Apr 17, 2023 12:56 pm
by ICGrad
Matnum PI wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 12:41 pm
chosen1lax wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 12:24 pm
... Can someone tell me who Rutgers has beaten this year that deserves all of the love they are getting? Same with Cuse, nice they played on ESPN and beat a 7-5 UNC team... Jville 11-2 with a win over Duke... Media bias to some teams as well as recency bias dominating the ballots
This is how the FanLax Computer has 'em....
10 Ohio State
That right there is all we need to know about the FanLax computer.
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Mon Apr 17, 2023 1:13 pm
by laxjuris
ICGrad wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 12:56 pm
Matnum PI wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 12:41 pm
chosen1lax wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 12:24 pm
... Can someone tell me who Rutgers has beaten this year that deserves all of the love they are getting? Same with Cuse, nice they played on ESPN and beat a 7-5 UNC team... Jville 11-2 with a win over Duke... Media bias to some teams as well as recency bias dominating the ballots
This is how the FanLax Computer has 'em....
10 Ohio State
That right there is all we need to know about the FanLax computer.
The computer has no eyes, since in no way is OSU 10th under the eye test.
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Mon Apr 17, 2023 1:22 pm
by ICGrad
laxjuris wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 1:13 pm
ICGrad wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 12:56 pm
Matnum PI wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 12:41 pm
chosen1lax wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 12:24 pm
... Can someone tell me who Rutgers has beaten this year that deserves all of the love they are getting? Same with Cuse, nice they played on ESPN and beat a 7-5 UNC team... Jville 11-2 with a win over Duke... Media bias to some teams as well as recency bias dominating the ballots
This is how the FanLax Computer has 'em....
10 Ohio State
That right there is all we need to know about the FanLax computer.
They computer has no eyes, since in no way is OSU 10th under the eye test.
OSU would make my bottom 10 before they made my top 10.
