The Nation's Financial Condition

[jhu72]

Natural Gas boom seems to be over. Prices down due to a glut and the ability of renewables to better compete.

Coal is toast, will be nearly entirely replaced in the next 10 years.
Needs to happen in China where coal remains relatively cheap, but overall this is going to happen pretty fast now.

Saying this truth hurt HRC a lot.

But I'd argue that this was because she did not show any empathy about the challenge to people and regions previously dependent on coal production. And that challenge is indeed massive.

Those cheering the positive benefits of less carbon need to pair that with serious action to mitigate the disruptive effects on people. Big-time retraining and investment programs are necessary.

Natural gas is going to continue to be way lower cost than coal and, in comparison to renewables, has the advantage of not being intermittent, so we're going to continue to see conversion away from coal for major plants, and a continued increase in the contribution of solar, wind, etc. Natural gas production will not be such a gold rush anymore, but we're going to continue to see that source taking over from coal in the mix.

The other two factors that I see are going to be distributed passive energy production (particularly commercial, but also residential) and electric transportation. Both are huge employment opportunities...retraining opportunities, infrastructure build opportunities.

Yup. The renewable storage / buffering problem is being solved and will vanish as a problem in the relative short term. The natural gas glut, both in the ground and in production capacity, worldwide, should tend to keep energy prices low. This addresses pretty much everything but automotive energy where electric vehicles are starting to make inroads and prices coming down. I would think within 10 years our usage of energy sources will be very very different from what they are today and totally different from what they were 10 years ago. Oil is clearly in trouble as well. Just a matter of time.

[jhu72]

Natural Gas boom seems to be over. Prices down due to a glut and the ability of renewables to better compete.

Coal is toast, will be nearly entirely replaced in the next 10 years.
Needs to happen in China where coal remains relatively cheap, but overall this is going to happen pretty fast now.

Saying this truth hurt HRC a lot.

But I'd argue that this was because she did not show any empathy about the challenge to people and regions previously dependent on coal production. And that challenge is indeed massive.

Those cheering the positive benefits of less carbon need to pair that with serious action to mitigate the disruptive effects on people. Big-time retraining and investment programs are necessary.

Natural gas is going to continue to be way lower cost than coal and, in comparison to renewables, has the advantage of not being intermittent, so we're going to continue to see conversion away from coal for major plants, and a continued increase in the contribution of solar, wind, etc. Natural gas production will not be such a gold rush anymore, but we're going to continue to see that source taking over from coal in the mix.

The other two factors that I see are going to be distributed passive energy production (particularly commercial, but also residential) and electric transportation. Both are huge employment opportunities...retraining opportunities, infrastructure build opportunities.

Yup. The renewable storage / buffering problem is being solved and will vanish as a problem in the relative short term. The natural gas glut, both in the ground and in production capacity, worldwide, should tend to keep energy prices low. This addresses pretty much everything but automotive energy where electric vehicles are starting to make inroads and prices coming down. I would think within 10 years our usage of energy sources will be very very different from what they are today and totally different from what they were 10 years ago. Oil is clearly in trouble as well. Just a matter of time.

Lots of infrastructure jobs to be had in the coming years. Should be noted that on the list of fastest growing industries I presented, one of those industries was a new infrastructure industry, storage battery manufacturing. Expect to see the list in the future being dominated by such new economy jobs. These jobs however will require workers to be competent in technology. Brain power, not brawn is the future. Robots will be responsible for the brawn and highly repetitive tasks.

[Trinity]

“The China trade deal appears to be a total capitulation, as predicted.
The trade war cost America 300,000 jobs, and in exchange, in this "deal" China made exactly ZERO hard commitments to structural reform.
What a disaster.”

Senator Chris Murphy

[jhu72]

“The China trade deal appears to be a total capitulation, as predicted.
The trade war cost America 300,000 jobs, and in exchange, in this "deal" China made exactly ZERO hard commitments to structural reform.
What a disaster.”

Senator Chris Murphy

No surprise, totally predictable. The moronic republican rank and file will nonetheless eat it all up. It is a cult.

[Trinity]

“Here's some back of the napkin math on China deal:
China agrees to buy $50B of ag products next year, increase of $29B from pre-tariff trade.
Tariffs cost U.S. farmers $11B. Then taxpayers put up $28B in emergency ag payouts.
So...we lost/spent $39B. Gained $29B.
Nice work! “

Senator Chris Murphy

[youthathletics]

Was there a China Trade deal going on in 1985 between Willie Nelson and Zhao Ziyang?

[ardilla secreta]

“Here's some back of the napkin math on China deal:
China agrees to buy $50B of ag products next year, increase of $29B from pre-tariff trade.
Tariffs cost U.S. farmers $11B. Then taxpayers put up $28B in emergency ag payouts.
So...we lost/spent $39B. Gained $29B.
Nice work! “

Senator Chris Murphy

So China will agree to buy 50B in AG goods. My understanding is that 2017 set the high bar at 27B and their economy is down from that period. Sounds like bull sheets in the Land of Oz.

[a fan]

So China will agree to buy 50B in AG goods.

Over a decade ? A century?

Golly whiz, who cares. Trump saved the world! Hooray!!

[jhu72]

“Here's some back of the napkin math on China deal:
China agrees to buy $50B of ag products next year, increase of $29B from pre-tariff trade.
Tariffs cost U.S. farmers $11B. Then taxpayers put up $28B in emergency ag payouts.
So...we lost/spent $39B. Gained $29B.
Nice work! “

Senator Chris Murphy

So China will agree to buy 50B in AG goods. My understanding is that 2017 set the high bar at 27B and their economy is down from that period. Sounds like bull sheets in the Land of Oz.

The 50B number appears nowhere in any document it is said. The 50B number was pulled out of someone's ass. That someone then went on to say, "maybe more". Whatever happened to the yawn emoji?

[cradleandshoot]

“Here's some back of the napkin math on China deal:
China agrees to buy $50B of ag products next year, increase of $29B from pre-tariff trade.
Tariffs cost U.S. farmers $11B. Then taxpayers put up $28B in emergency ag payouts.
So...we lost/spent $39B. Gained $29B.
Nice work! “

Senator Chris Murphy

So China will agree to buy 50B in AG goods. My understanding is that 2017 set the high bar at 27B and their economy is down from that period. Sounds like bull sheets in the Land of Oz.

The 50B number appears nowhere in any document it is said. The 50B number was pulled out of someone's ass. That someone then went on to say, "maybe more". Whatever happened to the yawn emoji?

Whatever happened to the yawn emoji?

Too many posts from MDlax... it was all used up.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Was there a China Trade deal going on in 1985 between Willie Nelson and Zhao Ziyang?

Again, Trump gets his pockets turned inside out.

[youthathletics]

Was there a China Trade deal going on in 1985 between Willie Nelson and Zhao Ziyang?

Again, Trump gets his pockets turned inside out.

This is not a new problem, is my point. In 1985 Willie tried to help the cause and he soon realized one concert was not going to solve it...it is still going on today.

People are acting like Trump caused this issue. Typical partisan scare tactics and scoreboard keeping.

[Trinity]

Larry Kudlow tells @CNBC that the $40 to $50 billion of ag purchases in the China trade deal is over a two year period. What it was before, basically. Minus the cost of tariffs and bailouts. Trump’s a stable genius, fo sure.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Was there a China Trade deal going on in 1985 between Willie Nelson and Zhao Ziyang?

Again, Trump gets his pockets turned inside out.

This is not a new problem, is my point. In 1985 Willie tried to help the cause and he soon realized one concert was not going to solve it...it is still going on today.

People are acting like Trump caused this issue. Typical partisan scare tactics and scoreboard keeping.

Greatest businessman ever.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Larry Kudlow tells @CNBC that the $40 to $50 billion of ag purchases in the China trade deal is over a two year period. What it was before, basically. Minus the cost of tariffs and bailouts. Trump’s a stable genius, fo sure.

If Kudlow says $40-50B over two years. It’s probably the high side of the volume estimate and the low side of the duration. You can’t believe anything that comes out of the White House.

[jhu72]

Was there a China Trade deal going on in 1985 between Willie Nelson and Zhao Ziyang?

Again, Trump gets his pockets turned inside out.

This is not a new problem, is my point. In 1985 Willie tried to help the cause and he soon realized one concert was not going to solve it...it is still going on today.

People are acting like Trump caused this issue. Typical partisan scare tactics and scoreboard keeping.

No people are acting like Trump is an jerk for taking credit for a non-solution.

[a fan]

Larry Kudlow tells @CNBC that the $40 to $50 billion of ag purchases in the China trade deal is over a two year period. What it was before, basically. Minus the cost of tariffs and bailouts. Trump’s a stable genius, fo sure.

If Kudlow says $40-50B over two years. It’s probably the high side of the volume estimate and the low side of the duration. You can’t believe anything that comes out of the White House.

Kudlow is the same guy who promised sustained 4%+ GDP with the tax cuts, and that they'd "pay for themselves".

I trust Trump before I trust Kudlow. Kudlow either KNOWS he's lying, or doesn't know diddly-*hit about macroeconomics. Pick one.

[a fan]

People are acting like Trump caused this issue. Typical partisan scare tactics and scoreboard keeping.

Um. He did.

Who started a trade war with China, the EU, Canada, and Mexico all at once?

Trump. You don't get to blame Obama for this mess, sorry.

[a fan]

This is not a new problem, is my point. In 1985 Willie tried to help the cause and he soon realized one concert was not going to solve it...it is still going on today.

This single issue has destroyed your party.

Bunch of full grown men and women that are too stubborn to realize that socialism is the only hope for their way of life. They should vote for Bernie, with NO HESITATION. AOC should be their freaking hero.

They don't want to hear this. So what do they do? Vote for leaders who systematically destroy the economic systems that give farmers a chance to thrive-----get rid of unions, get rid of taxes on the rich and corporations, and open our border to "free" trade.

Politicians can't help these farmers until they wake up, and realize that the free market means that they have to be willing to work at the same wage rate as every other farmer in the world.

Chinese farmer make around $4.50 per day. Until rural Republican voters wake the F*ck up, and realize that this is what they are telling their government that they want to compete for......they're doomed. These voters are simply killing their children and grandchildren's future.

It's depressing as hell.

And you are totally, completely lost at sea if you think Trump's trade policies are helping these people. You think that this evaluation is because I hate Trump. Nope. Obama, Bush, Clinton, Bush, and Reagan all used the same trade policies Trump is using.

[youthathletics]

This is not a new problem, is my point. In 1985 Willie tried to help the cause and he soon realized one concert was not going to solve it...it is still going on today.

You think that this evaluation is because I hate Trump. Nope. Obama, Bush, Clinton, Bush, and Reagan all used the same trade policies Trump is using.

Thank you....that is all I am saying and have been saying. And as I articulated with you earlier this month, the farmers I know and have worked with each adapted, downsized, changed and added services and goods, or just closed up shop and sold off most of their land, Not blaming them one way or another.