2025 Recruitment

[blue angels]

Every sport ranks players. Recruiting rankings are as american as apple pie. Everyone does it and it's been around for a long time. It's never an exact science because at the end of the day it's just people's opinions. You may agree or disagree about certain players but trying to rebel against the concept of recruiting rankings is useless.

Complaining about where Il rank's your team is ludicrous. Sure they talk to coaches but how much Lacrosse Coaching or playing knowledge do they actually have and how far do they look outside of events in hot beds..... Take a look at the last few National champs. Players are coming from all over and not just the East Coast Hot Beds. I would also wager that the staffs at Maryland, Duke, Virginia, Notre Dame, etc, etc have their own player ranking list that differs from the one put together by IL and from each other. That being said, I would bet that the coach with the #15 rated class would take the #1-3 class, if they could.

[jrn19]

The staffs at Maryland, Duke, UVA, ND etc. are informing the rankings. Why do you think the Top 20 players in the rankings every year…..go to those schools?

[justanotherperson]

Every sport ranks players. Recruiting rankings are as american as apple pie. Everyone does it and it's been around for a long time. It's never an exact science because at the end of the day it's just people's opinions. You may agree or disagree about certain players but trying to rebel against the concept of recruiting rankings is useless.

Agree. Every sport does rankings and especially for lacrosse it is more hit or miss and opinion. The one difference about lax rankings is there is not enough personnel to do a good job of ranking all players in the country especially the hinterlands. In addition, those who are doing the rankings are doing it more as a function of opinion as opposed to metrics which is more common place in other sports such as football, baseball, basketball etc. Finally, there is a wag the dog effect as many players are ranked AFTER they commit to a school which essentially biases their ranking. I do not believe it happens in the other sports. I dont mind the rankings; I just take it with a grain of salt.

The question is someone must have looked at outcomes for the last 6 years for kids who were ranked and how did they end up

[10stone5]

Here is ILs rating scale,

here is IL’s internal evaluation scale and a few examples of players who were identified as high school prospects and have already gone on to represent their evaluation score during their college career:

95+: Projects as a DI All-American
92-95: Projects as a Freshman starter at a Top 10 DI Program
88-91: Projects as a Freshman starter at a DI Program
84-88: Projects as a Soph/Junior starter at a DI Program
80-83: Projects as a DI Roster Player/DII, DIII Starter
76-79: Will Contribute as a Junior/Senior
70-76: College Lacrosse Roster Player
60-69: Could Play College Lacrosse
0-59: Will Find It Challenging To Play College Lacrosse

[jff97]

Last year, I was bored over the holidays and decided to see if the Blue Chip Ratio used in college football could apply to lacrosse. I decided to bring it back for this year, Here's the post I did then: viewtopic.php?p=421471&hilit=blue+chip#p421471

I took the idea from 247 Sports. The idea is that you need to have at least 50 percent of your recruits over the last four years to be four or five stars to compete for a national championship, It's been the case for the last 12 years, but Michael Penix Jr. and Washington could break that streak on Monday.
Here's a link to more info on how this works in football: h[url]ttps://247sports.com/article/blue-chip-ratio-2023-college-football-16-teams-who-can-actually-win-a-national-title-211217111/[/url]

With Inside Lacrosse changing to a star system for recruiting starting in 2017, there's enough data to put together a lacrosse blue-chip ratio for the last four years. In the previous three years, the three national champions hit the mark (2021 Virginia 83 percent, 2022 Maryland 66 percent, 2023 Notre Dame 76 percent) as did 11 of the 12 Final Four teams. Below is the list for this year. I decided not to include transfers, since IL doesn't rerank them like 247 does for football. The numbers on the far right indicate which teams moved up and down the list.

1. Princeton 88 percent (+1)
2. Virginia 84 percent (-1)
3. Duke 81 percent
4. Notre Dame 74 percent
5. Cornell 70 percent (+5)
6. Penn 68 percent (+5)
7. North Carolina 67 percent (+2)
8. Georgetown 66 percent
9. Maryland 63 percent (-2)
10. Yale 63 percent (-5)
11. Syracuse 62 percent (+3)
12. Harvard 61 percent (-6)
13. Michigan 58 percent
14. Penn State 56 percent (-2)
Dropped Out: Brown, Ohio State

Some takeaways:
-Princeton is the new #1, unseating Virginia. UVA had been #1 each of the last three seasons.
-Princeton's rise is part of a mixed bag for the Ivy League. Cornell and Penn took big jump up, while Yale and Harvard both had big drops and Brown dropped off the list entirely.
-The 12 teams at 60 percent or higher is the most in the four years of this list. Syracuse hit the 60 percent mark for the first time, while Cornell did the same for the 70 percent mark
-Teams in the next tier of 40 percent or higher were Brown (49 percent), Johns Hopkins (47 percent), Ohio State (46 percent) and Villanova (43 percent).
Please remember, just because your team isn't on this list doesn't IL is involved in some conspiracy against your favorite team. Or that they can't win a national championship. These are just the teams with the most recruited talent and the likely depth needed to win on Memorial Day. Does that mean all these teams will be make the tournament? Absolutely not. Just a marker for which teams should have high expectations. Hope some people here enjoy this and it creates some discussion.

[blue angels]

Last year, I was bored over the holidays and decided to see if the Blue Chip Ratio used in college football could apply to lacrosse. I decided to bring it back for this year, Here's the post I did then: viewtopic.php?p=421471&hilit=blue+chip#p421471

I took the idea from 247 Sports. The idea is that you need to have at least 50 percent of your recruits over the last four years to be four or five stars to compete for a national championship, It's been the case for the last 12 years, but Michael Penix Jr. and Washington could break that streak on Monday.
Here's a link to more info on how this works in football: h[url]ttps://247sports.com/article/blue-chip-ratio-2023-college-football-16-teams-who-can-actually-win-a-national-title-211217111/[/url]

With Inside Lacrosse changing to a star system for recruiting starting in 2017, there's enough data to put together a lacrosse blue-chip ratio for the last four years. In the previous three years, the three national champions hit the mark (2021 Virginia 83 percent, 2022 Maryland 66 percent, 2023 Notre Dame 76 percent) as did 11 of the 12 Final Four teams. Below is the list for this year. I decided not to include transfers, since IL doesn't rerank them like 247 does for football. The numbers on the far right indicate which teams moved up and down the list.

1. Princeton 88 percent (+1)
2. Virginia 84 percent (-1)
3. Duke 81 percent
4. Notre Dame 74 percent
5. Cornell 70 percent (+5)
6. Penn 68 percent (+5)
7. North Carolina 67 percent (+2)
8. Georgetown 66 percent
9. Maryland 63 percent (-2)
10. Yale 63 percent (-5)
11. Syracuse 62 percent (+3)
12. Harvard 61 percent (-6)
13. Michigan 58 percent
14. Penn State 56 percent (-2)
Dropped Out: Brown, Ohio State

Some takeaways:
-Princeton is the new #1, unseating Virginia. UVA had been #1 each of the last three seasons.
-Princeton's rise is part of a mixed bag for the Ivy League. Cornell and Penn took big jump up, while Yale and Harvard both had big drops and Brown dropped off the list entirely.
-The 12 teams at 60 percent or higher is the most in the four years of this list. Syracuse hit the 60 percent mark for the first time, while Cornell did the same for the 70 percent mark
-Teams in the next tier of 40 percent or higher were Brown (49 percent), Johns Hopkins (47 percent), Ohio State (46 percent) and Villanova (43 percent).
Please remember, just because your team isn't on this list doesn't IL is involved in some conspiracy against your favorite team. Or that they can't win a national championship. These are just the teams with the most recruited talent and the likely depth needed to win on Memorial Day. Does that mean all these teams will be make the tournament? Absolutely not. Just a marker for which teams should have high expectations. Hope some people here enjoy this and it creates some discussion.

Sort of a useless comparison list if you don't include transfers. The latter often have a bigger impact than recruits

[jff97]

Last year, I was bored over the holidays and decided to see if the Blue Chip Ratio used in college football could apply to lacrosse. I decided to bring it back for this year, Here's the post I did then: viewtopic.php?p=421471&hilit=blue+chip#p421471

I took the idea from 247 Sports. The idea is that you need to have at least 50 percent of your recruits over the last four years to be four or five stars to compete for a national championship, It's been the case for the last 12 years, but Michael Penix Jr. and Washington could break that streak on Monday.
Here's a link to more info on how this works in football: h[url]ttps://247sports.com/article/blue-chip-ratio-2023-college-football-16-teams-who-can-actually-win-a-national-title-211217111/[/url]

With Inside Lacrosse changing to a star system for recruiting starting in 2017, there's enough data to put together a lacrosse blue-chip ratio for the last four years. In the previous three years, the three national champions hit the mark (2021 Virginia 83 percent, 2022 Maryland 66 percent, 2023 Notre Dame 76 percent) as did 11 of the 12 Final Four teams. Below is the list for this year. I decided not to include transfers, since IL doesn't rerank them like 247 does for football. The numbers on the far right indicate which teams moved up and down the list.

1. Princeton 88 percent (+1)
2. Virginia 84 percent (-1)
3. Duke 81 percent
4. Notre Dame 74 percent
5. Cornell 70 percent (+5)
6. Penn 68 percent (+5)
7. North Carolina 67 percent (+2)
8. Georgetown 66 percent
9. Maryland 63 percent (-2)
10. Yale 63 percent (-5)
11. Syracuse 62 percent (+3)
12. Harvard 61 percent (-6)
13. Michigan 58 percent
14. Penn State 56 percent (-2)
Dropped Out: Brown, Ohio State

Some takeaways:
-Princeton is the new #1, unseating Virginia. UVA had been #1 each of the last three seasons.
-Princeton's rise is part of a mixed bag for the Ivy League. Cornell and Penn took big jump up, while Yale and Harvard both had big drops and Brown dropped off the list entirely.
-The 12 teams at 60 percent or higher is the most in the four years of this list. Syracuse hit the 60 percent mark for the first time, while Cornell did the same for the 70 percent mark
-Teams in the next tier of 40 percent or higher were Brown (49 percent), Johns Hopkins (47 percent), Ohio State (46 percent) and Villanova (43 percent).
Please remember, just because your team isn't on this list doesn't IL is involved in some conspiracy against your favorite team. Or that they can't win a national championship. These are just the teams with the most recruited talent and the likely depth needed to win on Memorial Day. Does that mean all these teams will be make the tournament? Absolutely not. Just a marker for which teams should have high expectations. Hope some people here enjoy this and it creates some discussion.

Sort of a useless comparison list if you don't include transfers. The latter often have a bigger impact than recruits

Maybe for the year or two they're there but I think it only seems that way because of the initial talent level of the team they join. It's hard to win a national championship off of just transfers alone. The title winners in the COVID era have used them to plug holes and get over the top. They already had a strong level of talent to begin with.

[10stone5]

In the previous three years, the three national champions hit the mark (2021 Virginia 83 percent, 2022 Maryland 66 percent, 2023 Notre Dame 76 percent) as did 11 of the 12 Final Four teams. Below is the list for this year. I decided not to include transfers, since IL doesn't rerank them…

The one Final Four outlier being Rutgers,
where you can presume they were aided greatly that season by
their transfers.

Here’s guessing also, Penn State just with their past two classes passed the 50% threshold.

[jff97]

In the previous three years, the three national champions hit the mark (2021 Virginia 83 percent, 2022 Maryland 66 percent, 2023 Notre Dame 76 percent) as did 11 of the 12 Final Four teams. Below is the list for this year. I decided not to include transfers, since IL doesn't rerank them…

The one Final Four outlier being Rutgers,
where you can presume they were aided greatly that season by
their transfers.

Here’s guessing also, Penn State just with their past two classes passed the 50% threshold.

Rutgers was a huge outlier at 17 percent in 2022, and haven't been much better in the last 2 years at 20 and 19 percent, respectively. Penn State's actually been recruiting at a pretty solid level since the 2019 class. Just took a little bit to balance out the 2017 and 2018 classes that didn't have a ton of blue-chip recruits.

[10stone5]

In the previous three years, the three national champions hit the mark (2021 Virginia 83 percent, 2022 Maryland 66 percent, 2023 Notre Dame 76 percent) as did 11 of the 12 Final Four teams. Below is the list for this year. I decided not to include transfers, since IL doesn't rerank them…

The one Final Four outlier being Rutgers,
where you can presume they were aided greatly that season by
their transfers.

Here’s guessing also, Penn State just with their past two classes passed the 50% threshold.

Rutgers was a huge outlier at 17 percent in 2022, and haven't been much better in the last 2 years at 20 and 19 percent, respectively. Penn State's actually been recruiting at a pretty solid level since the 2019 class. Just took a little bit to balance out the 2017 and 2018 classes that didn't have a ton of blue-chip recruits.

Yeah, I can see that re: Penn State.
They should move up even further beyond the 50% threshold with their 2023 and 2024 classes.
One outlier, and its been well documented, was TJ Malone - he was a senior prep school riser - and so didn’t get the the IL 3, 4, 5 star rating.
Looks to me like Penn State is tending towards the higher rated 4 and 3 stars with the occasional 5 star as their recruiting strategy — generally avoiding the direct competition for recruits with say the Dukes and the UVAs, especially since famously losing out to Duke for Brennan O’Neill.

[Can Opener]

Thanks for doing the leg work on this, JFF. Much appreciated!

[10stone5]

1. Princeton 88 percent (+1)
2. Virginia 84 percent (-1)
3. Duke 81 percent
4. Notre Dame 74 percent
5. Cornell 70 percent (+5)
6. Penn 68 percent (+5)
7. North Carolina 67 percent (+2)
8. Georgetown 66 percent
9. Maryland 63 percent (-2)
10. Yale 63 percent (-5)
11. Syracuse 62 percent (+3)
12. Harvard 61 percent (-6)
13. Michigan 58 percent
14. Penn State 56 percent (-2)
Dropped Out: Brown, Ohio State

Ivy Leagues with 3 of the top six positions.
I’m not entirely surprised that they have no problem competing directly with the ACCs for top 10 recruits.
The question is, with the “Covid Advantage” just about over, how will that play out for the Ivy Leagues at the very least in terms of Final Fours.
Course, they’ll remain hamstrung on the use of 5 year, redshirted players.

[jff97]

1. Princeton 88 percent (+1)
2. Virginia 84 percent (-1)
3. Duke 81 percent
4. Notre Dame 74 percent
5. Cornell 70 percent (+5)
6. Penn 68 percent (+5)
7. North Carolina 67 percent (+2)
8. Georgetown 66 percent
9. Maryland 63 percent (-2)
10. Yale 63 percent (-5)
11. Syracuse 62 percent (+3)
12. Harvard 61 percent (-6)
13. Michigan 58 percent
14. Penn State 56 percent (-2)
Dropped Out: Brown, Ohio State

Ivy Leagues with 3 of the top six positions.
I’m not entirely surprised that they have no problem competing directly with the ACCs for top 10 recruits.
The question is, with the “Covid Advantage” just about over, how will that play out for the Ivy Leagues at the very least in terms of Final Fours.
Course, they’ll remain hamstrung on the use of 5 year, redshirted players.

The Ivy League had a strong cycle for the 2023 class, which was surprising to some considering that class was mostly recruited in the fall of 2021 and no one was going to send their kids to an Ivy anymore after their strict COVID policies. The four on here should stay on this list the next two years. Of course turning that into FF runs is easier said than done, especially with some of the restrictions placed on Ivy League schools.