Duke

[Dr. Tact]

Watching the VT game, I'm not sure that Duke is a tier 2 or 3 team.

If they didn't have jenner winning 10 of 12 they would be losing. I think this may apply to the team going forward. Win 50% of draws and a good team should be able to beat Duke

If…. Kind of like if Rosenzweig doesn’t win 5 DC’s SU wins by more than one. All parts of a team

Sorry, was that directed at me because of loyola? I was just making a comment about duke and their draw percentage. If they didnt win 80 percent of the draws they wouldnt win as many games...pretty simple concept

You didnt need to make it personal

Personal? Didn’t know I mentioned you or your kid. It’s not like someone said loyola…a team everyone loves to hate and I said …..I’m in.

Jenner is part of a team. Her 80% win tonight helped her team win. Much like on the mens side several face off specialists help their teams win the national championships. Part of a team.

OK. Let's get the "Personal" out of the way. Forget I said it.


One more thing to get out here. I am not a fan of Duke Women's lax. It is a personal bias that I don't need to go into here. That said, my comments were not driven from my dislike of the program. I was just stating some observations.

Jenner is part of a team and she helped her team win the game last night. She is also the premier draw specialist in the game today. That is not a question. My points were in this vein... In general, a team that significantly wins draws by a large margin wins the game (I know we had some examples of the opposite on another thread). Your Team gets more opportunities to score and the opponent gets less. Pretty simple. So, look at my previous comments a little closer. I thought that it was a simple statement that when winning a 1 goal game, if you didn't win such a large percentage of draws, the result could (I would say "would") be different. I said that maybe the key to beating Duke is draws. That isn't so outrageous, again, simple concept. Nowhere did I say Jenner wasn't great, wasn't part of a team. She was crucial to their win. But if you can go with me here, if you limit Duke/Jenner to say 60% wins, you can get more opportunities to win. Last night Duke won 23 of 33 (70%) of all draws. Jenner was awarded 18 of those 23. She nearly outdrew the Hokies by 2 to 1. Hypothetically, if Duke (not just Jenner) were limited to 60% wins, that would be 20 draw controls. So, 3 less chances to score for Duke and 3 more chances for VT. This does not factor any total goal differentials that might happen because of the 6 draw delta. So, as a Team there could be a difference in goals scored/given up. I would take the bet that with those +3/-3 chances that VT's Team could have scored one more goal and that Duke's Team would score one less. That is just my opinion on what I saw last night between the two squads. Now, if you are good/lucky enough to limit Duke to 50%, the delta could be 12 draws. That isn't what happened or historically happens with Jenner or the Duke Team. Just my simple statement that got this started. If you can limit draw wins, by Duke, you likely have the best chance to beat them. Duke and VT were equal last night. Whoever won the most draws, won the game. Simple.

[Bart]

Watching the VT game, I'm not sure that Duke is a tier 2 or 3 team.

If they didn't have jenner winning 10 of 12 they would be losing. I think this may apply to the team going forward. Win 50% of draws and a good team should be able to beat Duke

If…. Kind of like if Rosenzweig doesn’t win 5 DC’s SU wins by more than one. All parts of a team

Sorry, was that directed at me because of loyola? I was just making a comment about duke and their draw percentage. If they didnt win 80 percent of the draws they wouldnt win as many games...pretty simple concept

You didnt need to make it personal

Personal? Didn’t know I mentioned you or your kid. It’s not like someone said loyola…a team everyone loves to hate and I said …..I’m in.

Jenner is part of a team. Her 80% win tonight helped her team win. Much like on the mens side several face off specialists help their teams win the national championships. Part of a team.

OK. Let's get the "Personal" out of the way. Forget I said it.


One more thing to get out here. I am not a fan of Duke Women's lax. It is a personal bias and I don't need to go into here. That said, my comments were not driven from my dislike of the program. I was just stating some observations.
Fair enough, but if you have read on there long enough and pay attention you certainly know of biases/dislikes of fellow posters from past comments, even with in a thread. Observations/comments by posters are viewed by past experiences from what posters have previously said. Not that is should matter to you (my opinion on anyone's post should not matter to the poster) but I can certainly take your word for what you say here.

Jenner is part of a team and she helped her team win the game last night. She is also the premier draw specialist in the game today. That is not a question. My points were in this vein... In general, a team that significantly wins draws by a large margin wins the game (I know we had some examples of the opposite on another thread). Your Team gets more opportunities to score and the opponent gets less. Pretty simple. So, look at my previous comments a little closer. I thought that it was a simple statement that when winning a 1 goal game, if you didn't win such a large percentage of draws, the result could (I would say "would") be different. I said that maybe the key to beating Duke is draws. That isn't so outrageous, again, simple concept. No where did I say Jenner wasn't great, wasn't part of a team. She was crucial to their win. But if you can go with me here, if you limit Jenner to say 60% wins, you can get more opportunities to win. Last night Duke won 23 of 33 (70%) of all draws. Jenner was awarded 18 of those 23. She nearly outdrew the Hokies by 2 to 1. Hypothetically, if Duke (not just Jenner) were limited to 60% wins, that would be 20 draw controls. So, 3 less chances to score for Duke and 3 more chances for VT. This does not factor any total goal differentials that might happen because of the 6 draw delta. So, as a Team there could be a difference in goals scored/given up. I would take the bet that with those +3/-3 chances that VT's Team could have scored one more goal and that Duke's Team would score one less. That is just my opinion on what I saw last night between the two squads. Now, if you are good/lucky enough to limit Duke to 50%, the delta could be 12 draws. That isn't what happened or historically happens with Jenner or the Duke Team. Just my simple statement that got this started. If you can limit draw wins, by Duke, you likely have the best chance to beat them. Duke and VT were equal last night. Whoever won the most draws, won the game. Simple.

That is fine and dandy. You could say that about almost any team with a very important cog in that teams machine (Which Jenner is). If teams limit Charlotte North to 2 goals a game then teams have a much better chance of beating BC. The thing is IF.............IF you can do such.

Noticed I started with IF..........

[Dr. Tact]

That is fine and dandy. You could say that about almost any team with a very important cog in that teams machine (Which Jenner is). If teams limit Charlotte North to 2 goals a game then teams have a much better chance of beating BC. The thing is IF.............IF you can do such.

Noticed I started with IF..........

Yes, you are correct. I just made two comments last night, that I felt that the way to beat Duke was to limit the draw wins. Nothing controversial or Rocket surgery in that. You decided to drill down to it being a team issue. I don't disagree with you. Everything that happens in a team game can be attributed to the team. I get that.

And yes, IF you want a good chance to beat BC, you will have more success at that IF you limit CN to 2 goals...at least as it compares to her having 8 goals. Nothing is black and white (if X then Y); my comments were fully gray. In my opinion, you have a better chance at beating LSOTP if you remove/neutralize their strength. Whether that is limiting draws, FG a player, etc.

[8meterPA]

That is fine and dandy. You could say that about almost any team with a very important cog in that teams machine (Which Jenner is). If teams limit Charlotte North to 2 goals a game then teams have a much better chance of beating BC. The thing is IF.............IF you can do such.

Noticed I started with IF..........

Yes, you are correct. I just made two comments last night, that I felt that the way to beat Duke was to limit the draw wins. Nothing controversial or Rocket surgery in that. You decided to drill down to it being a team issue. I don't disagree with you. Everything that happens in a team game can be attributed to the team. I get that.

And yes, IF you want a good chance to beat BC, you will have more success at that IF you limit CN to 2 goals...at least as it compares to her having 8 goals. Nothing is black and white (if X then Y); my comments were fully gray. In my opinion, you have a better chance at beating LSOTP if you remove/neutralize their strength. Whether that is limiting draws, FG a player, etc.

There is always an exception to the rule and nothing more startling than BU, which is 2nd I believe, in the nation in draw controls and has a 1 - 11 record...

[Dr. Tact]

That is fine and dandy. You could say that about almost any team with a very important cog in that teams machine (Which Jenner is). If teams limit Charlotte North to 2 goals a game then teams have a much better chance of beating BC. The thing is IF.............IF you can do such.

Noticed I started with IF..........

Yes, you are correct. I just made two comments last night, that I felt that the way to beat Duke was to limit the draw wins. Nothing controversial or Rocket surgery in that. You decided to drill down to it being a team issue. I don't disagree with you. Everything that happens in a team game can be attributed to the team. I get that.

And yes, IF you want a good chance to beat BC, you will have more success at that IF you limit CN to 2 goals...at least as it compares to her having 8 goals. Nothing is black and white (if X then Y); my comments were fully gray. In my opinion, you have a better chance at beating LSOTP if you remove/neutralize their strength. Whether that is limiting draws, FG a player, etc.

There is always an exception to the rule and nothing more startling than BU, which is 2nd I believe, in the nation in draw controls and has a 1 - 11 record...

Nice pull....I didnt realize that. Wonder why? Just a bad offense?

[Bart]

That is fine and dandy. You could say that about almost any team with a very important cog in that teams machine (Which Jenner is). If teams limit Charlotte North to 2 goals a game then teams have a much better chance of beating BC. The thing is IF.............IF you can do such.

Noticed I started with IF..........

Yes, you are correct. I just made two comments last night, that I felt that the way to beat Duke was to limit the draw wins. Nothing controversial or Rocket surgery in that. You decided to drill down to it being a team issue. I don't disagree with you. Everything that happens in a team game can be attributed to the team. I get that.

And yes, IF you want a good chance to beat BC, you will have more success at that IF you limit CN to 2 goals...at least as it compares to her having 8 goals. Nothing is black and white (if X then Y); my comments were fully gray. In my opinion, you have a better chance at beating LSOTP if you remove/neutralize their strength. Whether that is limiting draws, FG a player, etc.

There is always an exception to the rule and nothing more startling than BU, which is 2nd I believe, in the nation in draw controls and has a 1 - 11 record...

Nice pull....I didnt realize that. Wonder why? Just a bad offense?

I'm wondering what Rocket Surgery is?
Kidding. It's all good.

[wlaxphan20]

That is fine and dandy. You could say that about almost any team with a very important cog in that teams machine (Which Jenner is). If teams limit Charlotte North to 2 goals a game then teams have a much better chance of beating BC. The thing is IF.............IF you can do such.

Noticed I started with IF..........

Yes, you are correct. I just made two comments last night, that I felt that the way to beat Duke was to limit the draw wins. Nothing controversial or Rocket surgery in that. You decided to drill down to it being a team issue. I don't disagree with you. Everything that happens in a team game can be attributed to the team. I get that.

And yes, IF you want a good chance to beat BC, you will have more success at that IF you limit CN to 2 goals...at least as it compares to her having 8 goals. Nothing is black and white (if X then Y); my comments were fully gray. In my opinion, you have a better chance at beating LSOTP if you remove/neutralize their strength. Whether that is limiting draws, FG a player, etc.

There is always an exception to the rule and nothing more startling than BU, which is 2nd I believe, in the nation in draw controls and has a 1 - 11 record...

Nice pull....I didnt realize that. Wonder why? Just a bad offense?

An average of 19.5 turnovers per game might do it...234 in 12 games & only 144 of them caused by opponents.

[Itsallgood]

Duke looks past Virginia Tech at their own peril here. Duke should win pretty handily, but the game is in Blacksburg and Duke is the heavy favorite--a perfect recipe for an upset. I think it will be close but it won't be the first or last time I've guessed wrong on the outcome of a game. Anyway--Go Hokies. I'd love to see an upset here just to shake things up a bit, maybe galvanize Duke for the stretch run.

Well, the officiating sure suits VTech's style here....

Curious what you mean.... care to elaborate?

Sorry, missed this. I meant allowing the play to be rough, sometimes failing to call pretty clear fouls.

You know the sad part is that allowing teams to play a physical style of play only to officiate much tighter come playoffs is not good form ,and its continually done season after season. Teams that push the envelope on physicality are at a loss come playoff time, better to adjust you’re style of play all year long for what will be called in the playoffs. Northwestern vs Syracuse in the semis and then Syracuse vs Boston College in the finals come to mind from last year.

[8meterPA]

That is fine and dandy. You could say that about almost any team with a very important cog in that teams machine (Which Jenner is). If teams limit Charlotte North to 2 goals a game then teams have a much better chance of beating BC. The thing is IF.............IF you can do such.

Noticed I started with IF..........

Yes, you are correct. I just made two comments last night, that I felt that the way to beat Duke was to limit the draw wins. Nothing controversial or Rocket surgery in that. You decided to drill down to it being a team issue. I don't disagree with you. Everything that happens in a team game can be attributed to the team. I get that.

And yes, IF you want a good chance to beat BC, you will have more success at that IF you limit CN to 2 goals...at least as it compares to her having 8 goals. Nothing is black and white (if X then Y); my comments were fully gray. In my opinion, you have a better chance at beating LSOTP if you remove/neutralize their strength. Whether that is limiting draws, FG a player, etc.

There is always an exception to the rule and nothing more startling than BU, which is 2nd I believe, in the nation in draw controls and has a 1 - 11 record...

Nice pull....I didnt realize that. Wonder why? Just a bad offense?

An average of 19.5 turnovers per game might do it...234 in 12 games & only 144 of them caused by opponents.

bingo -

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

It occurs to me that Duke has been unfairly criticized to a degree in the area of strength of schedule. What’s the difference between Duke and Stony Brook? Duke schedules cupcakes for their out of conference games and Stony Brook has the cupcakes built in to their in-conference games. Same is true for JMU, Florida and Loyola. Look at the other teams in these conferences where there is one dominant team and the rest of the teams marginal to weak. For all intents and purposes, what’s the difference between Duke’s schedule and Stony Brook, Loyola, JMU and Florida? In the overall assessment of schedules, Duke’s is pretty much identical to these others.

[Seacoaster(1)]

It occurs to me that Duke has been unfairly criticized to a degree in the area of strength of schedule. What’s the difference between Duke and Stony Brook? Duke schedules cupcakes for their out of conference games and Stony Brook has the cupcakes built in to their in-conference games. Same is true for JMU, Florida and Loyola. Look at the other teams in these conferences where there is one dominant team and the rest of the teams marginal to weak. For all intents and purposes, what’s the difference between Duke’s schedule and Stony Brook, Loyola, JMU and Florida? In the overall assessment of schedules, Duke’s is pretty much identical to these others.

The way it nets out, there is something in what you say. I think the gripe I have with Duke is that it plays in a good conference, and then searches out Cupcake University for its OOC games. Where, in contrast, SBU searches out every tough game anyone is will to play. The net of the SOS is the same or similar; but Duke dodges rather than engages Northwestern, Maryland, etc. JMO.

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

Duke dodges rather than engages Northwestern, Maryland, etc.

Agreed. I can't commend Duke for who they seek out to play apart from those in the ACC they are compelled to play. The next two games are huge tests--and life only gets more challenging for them in the ACC tournament. I'm intrigued to see how they do the rest of the way. They'll most likely get the 5 seed in the ACC (unless they stun us all and beat BC and/or NC in their last 2 regular season games) which means they'll face one of the teams from Old Dominion; neither of whom will be easy in the first round of the ACC's. If they survive, they'll face a very tough semifinal opponent. Then, maybe a relative cupcake in the first round (or 2?) in The Tournament before things get real, as the kids say today.

[Maryland75]

If my memory serves me properly, Coach K at Duke campaigned to have no Duke teams schedule Maryland after they left the ACC for the Big Ten in 2014. I know Duke teams have played Maryland teams since then but not like other ACC schools.

[Laxfan500]

It occurs to me that Duke has been unfairly criticized to a degree in the area of strength of schedule. What’s the difference between Duke and Stony Brook? Duke schedules cupcakes for their out of conference games and Stony Brook has the cupcakes built in to their in-conference games. Same is true for JMU, Florida and Loyola. Look at the other teams in these conferences where there is one dominant team and the rest of the teams marginal to weak. For all intents and purposes, what’s the difference between Duke’s schedule and Stony Brook, Loyola, JMU and Florida? In the overall assessment of schedules, Duke’s is pretty much identical to these others.

There is a difference between games that you have to play because they are in your conference and out of conference games that you willingly select. there are teams that select tough out of conference games and there are teams like Duke that select easy games so they can pad their stats and I guess give an abundance of confidence to their players.

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

It occurs to me that Duke has been unfairly criticized to a degree in the area of strength of schedule. What’s the difference between Duke and Stony Brook? Duke schedules cupcakes for their out of conference games and Stony Brook has the cupcakes built in to their in-conference games. Same is true for JMU, Florida and Loyola. Look at the other teams in these conferences where there is one dominant team and the rest of the teams marginal to weak. For all intents and purposes, what’s the difference between Duke’s schedule and Stony Brook, Loyola, JMU and Florida? In the overall assessment of schedules, Duke’s is pretty much identical to these others.

There is a difference between games that you have to play because they are in your conference and out of conference games that you willingly select. there are teams that select tough out of conference games and there are teams like Duke that select easy games so they can pad their stats and I guess give an abundance of confidence to their players.

That's a given, Laxfan. My point is that if one compares the strength of schedules, they will find them very similar. Intent wasn't one of my points. Seacoaster and I covered that earlier this morning in this thread.

[crazyhorse]

SOS rankings for all ACC schools:

Notre Dame 1
Syracuse 2
Virginia 5
Boston College 6
UNC 8
Louisville 9
Virginia Tech 11
Pittsburgh 16
Duke 37

[hmmm]

It occurs to me that Duke has been unfairly criticized to a degree in the area of strength of schedule. What’s the difference between Duke and Stony Brook? Duke schedules cupcakes for their out of conference games and Stony Brook has the cupcakes built in to their in-conference games. Same is true for JMU, Florida and Loyola. Look at the other teams in these conferences where there is one dominant team and the rest of the teams marginal to weak. For all intents and purposes, what’s the difference between Duke’s schedule and Stony Brook, Loyola, JMU and Florida? In the overall assessment of schedules, Duke’s is pretty much identical to these others.

There is a difference between games that you have to play because they are in your conference and out of conference games that you willingly select. there are teams that select tough out of conference games and there are teams like Duke that select easy games so they can pad their stats and I guess give an abundance of confidence to their players.

That's a given, Laxfan. My point is that if one compares the strength of schedules, they will find them very similar. Intent wasn't one of my points. Seacoaster and I covered that earlier this morning in this thread.

You're comparing apples to oranges though. It's better to look at the other ACC teams like UNC, BC and UVA and the drastic difference in how they schedule OOC. What you are stating in comparing the relative strength of schedules between Duke, JMU, Florida and SB is true, but those teams and the other ACC powers create the best schedule they possible can while Duke creates the easiest schedule they possibly can.

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

It occurs to me that Duke has been unfairly criticized to a degree in the area of strength of schedule. What’s the difference between Duke and Stony Brook? Duke schedules cupcakes for their out of conference games and Stony Brook has the cupcakes built in to their in-conference games. Same is true for JMU, Florida and Loyola. Look at the other teams in these conferences where there is one dominant team and the rest of the teams marginal to weak. For all intents and purposes, what’s the difference between Duke’s schedule and Stony Brook, Loyola, JMU and Florida? In the overall assessment of schedules, Duke’s is pretty much identical to these others.

There is a difference between games that you have to play because they are in your conference and out of conference games that you willingly select. there are teams that select tough out of conference games and there are teams like Duke that select easy games so they can pad their stats and I guess give an abundance of confidence to their players.

That's a given, Laxfan. My point is that if one compares the strength of schedules, they will find them very similar. Intent wasn't one of my points. Seacoaster and I covered that earlier this morning in this thread.

You're comparing apples to oranges though. It's better to look at the other ACC teams like UNC, BC and UVA and the drastic difference in how they schedule OOC. What you are stating in comparing the relative strength of schedules between Duke, JMU, Florida and SB is true, but those teams and the other ACC powers create the best schedule they possible can while Duke creates the easiest schedule they possibly can.

I don’t disagree with 99% of what you say here. The 1% is the misinterpretation of the gist of my original post, which was clarified by my response to Seacoaster.

[Dr. Tact]

It occurs to me that Duke has been unfairly criticized to a degree in the area of strength of schedule. What’s the difference between Duke and Stony Brook? Duke schedules cupcakes for their out of conference games and Stony Brook has the cupcakes built in to their in-conference games. Same is true for JMU, Florida and Loyola. Look at the other teams in these conferences where there is one dominant team and the rest of the teams marginal to weak. For all intents and purposes, what’s the difference between Duke’s schedule and Stony Brook, Loyola, JMU and Florida? In the overall assessment of schedules, Duke’s is pretty much identical to these others.

There is a difference between games that you have to play because they are in your conference and out of conference games that you willingly select. there are teams that select tough out of conference games and there are teams like Duke that select easy games so they can pad their stats and I guess give an abundance of confidence to their players.

That's a given, Laxfan. My point is that if one compares the strength of schedules, they will find them very similar. Intent wasn't one of my points. Seacoaster and I covered that earlier this morning in this thread.

You're comparing apples to oranges though. It's better to look at the other ACC teams like UNC, BC and UVA and the drastic difference in how they schedule OOC. What you are stating in comparing the relative strength of schedules between Duke, JMU, Florida and SB is true, but those teams and the other ACC powers create the best schedule they possible can while Duke creates the easiest schedule they possibly can.

Context (OOC schedules) - looking at good (+) teams and easy teams (-) and neutral or equal teams (=). This doesnt mean that a (+) means the team is better than them, just a good OOC game.

Florida - Kennesaw State (-), UNC (+), Maryland (+), Stony Brook (+), Liberty (-), Loyola (+), Syracuse (+), Drexel (=), Stetson (-), Arizona State (slight -), Mercer (-). 5 (+), 5 (-) and 1 (=)

Stony Brook - Syracuse (+), Dartmouth (-), Florida (+), Northwestern (+), Hopkins (=), Hofstra (=), Brown (-), Vermont (-), Princeton (+), Arizona State (-). 4 (+), 4 (-), and 2 (=)

James Madison - UNC (+), VT (=), UConn (=), High Point (-), Ohio State (=), Penn State (=), Rutgers (+), Richmond (=), Virginia (+), Maryland (+). 4(+), 1 (-), and 5 (=).

Loyola - Hopkins (=), Towson (-), Penn (=), Penn State (=), Georgetown (=), Florida (+), Princeton (+), Syracuse (+). 3(+), 1 (-) and 4 (=).

Northwestern - BC (+), Marquette (-), Arizona State (-), Notre Dame (+), Syracuse (+), UNC (+), Stony Brook (+), Dartmouth (-), Penn (=), San Diego State (-). 5 (+), 4 (-), 1 (=).

Duke - Gardner Webb (-), Elon (-), William and Mary (-), High Point (-), East Carolina (-), Penn (=), Davidson (-), Liberty (-). 0 (+), 7(-) and 1(=).

for grins:

Syracuse - Stanford (=), Binghamton (-), Stony Brook (+), Northwestern (+), Florida (+), Temple (-), Loyola (+), Cornell (-), Albany (-). 4 (+), 4 (-) and 1 (=).

UNC - James Madison (+), Furman (-), Florida (+), Jacksonville (-), Northwestern (+), Mercer (-), High Point (-). 3 (+), 4 (-)

BC - Northwestern (+), UMass (-), Boston (-), Brown (-), Denver (+), Dartmouth (-), Harvard (-). 2 (+), 5 (-).


These +,-,= designations are my opinion...yours may differ.

[edit] these are purely OOC scheduling. It doesnt take into account the tough conference games for ACC/B1G teams.

[DMac]

Must say I'm glad to just be a fan and enjoy the games one at a time and not think as deeply about scheduling and a plethora of other details that are analyzed, dissected, and overthought.
Just get your popcorn and enjoy the games folks.
BC at Harvard at 1700 hrs, Cuse-Cornell at Schoellkopf 1900 hrs.
A couple of games to enjoy this evening, both on ESPN+.