All Things China

[OCanada]

Let’s be clear “we” did not export our jobs. Not even close. Corporations sent jobs overseas.

[a fan]

Relax Mr Instant Gratification.

Instant gratification? We're about to start year two, my friend.

Farmers are topping themselves at an alarming rate out my way. This isn't a game. And yes, I guess this is personal, and it's not fair to lash out out you.

The Chinese are playing with house money. They can give.

That's what supporters of this stupidity said a year ago.

Odd. The Chinese haven't budged. At all. Instead, they're upping the rhetoric and pressure. Does that tell you something

The (D)'s & EUros are happy Trump's challenging them on trade.

That's supposed to tell you something. The reason it doesn't is that you'd rather cover yourself in hot tar than criticize even on single aspect of Trump's foreign policy.

Of course the EUros are happy. They have nothing at stake. And instead of pointing this out as a flaw in Trump's stupid game, you're here touting it as a feature.

-------Edited to tone it down. I work with farmers that have been F'ed by this nonsense, and it's not fair to old salt to take it out on him.

[tech37]

Relax Mr Instant Gratification.

Hey OS, that's my line!

Pretty soon you'll be referencing the "a fan vortex."

[a fan]

Relax Mr Instant Gratification.

Hey OS, that's my line!

Pretty soon you'll be referencing the "a fan vortex."

Nothing to add here, eh? I told you what would happen, and here we are, nearly a year later... China holding all the cards, and Trump smack dab in the middle of an election cycle.

You ready for a few more years of this brilliant strategy? I know, I know. You can't criticize this "plan" of Trump's. You'll lose your secret decoder ring if you say this Trade War is pointless, stupid, and literally killing our farmers, right?

"it's worth it", right?

[tech37]

Relax Mr Instant Gratification.

Hey OS, that's my line!

Pretty soon you'll be referencing the "a fan vortex."

Nothing to add here, eh?

Nah...what's the point a fan? Sometime perhaps I'll add something on an agreeable topic?

Otherwise, I fear I'll fall prey to your, IMO, unreasonable debate style.

Have a great summer a fan.

[a fan]

You too!

[old salt]

Relax Mr Instant Gratification.

The (D)'s & EUros are happy Trump's challenging them on trade.

That's supposed to tell you something. The reason it doesn't is that you'd rather cover yourself in hot tar than criticize even on single aspect of Trump's foreign policy.

Of course the EUros are happy. They have nothing at stake. And instead of pointing this out as a flaw in Trump's stupid game, you're here touting it as a feature.

-------Edited to tone it down. I work with farmers that have been F'ed by this nonsense, and it's not fair to old salt to take it out on him.

Don't go soft on me now. This should spool you up again. ..

[a fan]

No. I just laugh at this guy. Walking pile of contradictions that he tries to pass off as nuance. Desperately tries to tie everything to historical examples, while at the same time says every new situation is different. I can't imagine what it would look like if he had to actually lead soldiers or diplomats. And if he didn't know the party affiliation of the POTUS, he'd be totally lost as to what to think.

And still not one word of criticism for Trump after lobbing them at Obama almost weekly. It's a Christmas miracle!

In the last ten minutes Hanson tells us that after 8 years of the S Korea and Taiwan not being sure they could count on Obama....Trump is attempting to restore the status quo.

I looked up to make sure I get your quote right....you are telling me that Trump is more isolationist than Obama. Hanson is saying the opposite...and that Trump is trying to return to the status quo set by Bush.

Which one of you is going to lose their Trump decoder ring?

[old salt]

.. ...I don't know yet. I haven't listened yet.
...I'll get back to you after I do.
It's easier to get your squawks on the front end.

[a fan]

Ah, that explains why you posted it.

You two are at odds over how Trump is handling China. Be interesting to see how you cut the baby in half to make it sound like you're not.....

My guess? You'll hit me for being "black and white".

[Typical Lax Dad]

Ah, that explains why you posted it.

You two are at odds over how Trump is handling China. Be interesting to see how you cut the baby in half to make it sound like you're not.....

My guess? You'll hit me for being "black and white".

Not nuanced enough

[old salt]

Ah, that explains why you posted it.

You two are at odds over how Trump is handling China. Be interesting to see how you cut the baby in half to make it sound like you're not.....

My guess? You'll hit me for being "black and white".

I bet you wore Mao jackets to the student protests at Gtown. You'll feel differently when the Huawei 5Gnet takes control of your stills or the intl booze market is flooded with knock off swill bearing the Loepald Brothers label.

[a fan]

Happily, no. Was never anywhere near that far to the left. The Jesuits taught me to look at all sides of an argument. The only thing that gets me "spooled up", as you know, is partisanship....where the conclusion is "whatever the guy with a R by his name thinks, is "coincidentally" precisely and exactly what I think".

So when your man Hanson goes for 2 1/2 years of Trumps wholly erratic "foreign policy" behavior elicits nothing but either approval or silence....I call Bullsh*t. It's impossible to approve of even half of what Trump is doing....particularly so, when even Trump's own staff has no Earthly idea what his actual policies are from day to day.

As for your personal jab, you and your fellow Republican voters are just out to lunch (that's as euphemistic as I can get). That sort of thing is already happening! Our Congress---you know, the guys that you approve of no matter what they do, so long as they have the correct letter by their name----have been waving Chinese goods onto our shores for decades. Still are. Trade deficit is worse under Trump.....or have you not bothered checking that little stat?

Had apple juice or fruit juice lately? Guess where it came from? Yup. China. You see, Republicans and the 1% (as well as some D's, too) have been weakening our consumer protection laws for decades now, allowing China to ship frozen apple juice over here. All they have to do is repackage that Chinese made juice...that doesn't follow any US FDA rules....in American containers, and bingo, they have "American made" juice. Neat, huh?

So you're complaining to the wrong guy. I've been talking about how regulations and rule of law are the only thing standing between us and the abyss since the first days of the Water Cooler. And what has the response of the Republican voter been to this? Government is bad. Regulations are bad. And we should let the free market do it's thing. Deregulate any place we can.

Remember? And yet here you and guys like 6ft are, asking China to follow the very rules and regulations that Trump is so proudly dismantling. It's just too much. Y'all are so utterly blind to partisan politics that if Trump pointed to a trash can and said "that's your wife", you'd say to the can, "honey, let's go, i don't want to miss the football game".

As for Loepald Brothers-----our stills aren't automated. Only thing with chips in it are our boiler's control systems. Some of Allen Bradley's component are made in China, so yep, we're potentially vulnerable.

As for counterfeit spirits? Take a guess as to who the worldwide leader is in that little venture? Yep. Putin and his kleptocracy. So given your view on this matter----does that mean you're now on my side when it comes to Putin? Nope. "That's different" as always.

You're ok when Putin counterfeits products, but you think I'm an idiot for allowing China to do the same. Got it. Makes total sense. Oh, and Trump's dismantling of business regulations are super-awesome....unless they're Chinese made. Wait. What?

Call me when you get your position figured out.

[a fan]

As for my own position?

Here's my gripe regarding the trade war

-Americans haven't considered the risk/reward. Guys like you think we're sure to win. "Therefore", the pain is worth it. My question to you is: what if they never budge. Now what?

-Americans and Trump forgot that we have elections, and China does not. China can simply wait Trump out.

-We are doing this alone. Where are our allies in this trade war? We're not the only one's getting ripped off

-Trump doesn't have a clear endgame. He can't even tell us what he wants from China.

-Trump chose to pull this nonsense after increasing the deficit and spending to unsustainable levels.

-We're trading in 50 years of peace for this trade war. This can turn into a real trade war almost overnight.

-A new Cold War with China will be far more expensive than one with the Soviets. Far more expensive than the status quo.

-Trump is pushing all of our trading partners away, making it harder to replace lost trade with China

-Trump didn't have his staff work on quietly helping Americans find other export markets to replace the lost Chinese demand


In short, we are wholly unprepared for a decade+ long trade battle with China. Mentally, financially, politically, militarily.....we come up short, holding fewer cards than China across the board. Add in the utter cluelessness of the talking heads on Wall Street who have been conditioned to think that one quarter is an eon..... and you've got a recipe for disaster.

Had Trump gotten his ducks in a row before pulling this? Clear goals, clear allies, new trading partners lined up, etc.? Fine. I'm on board. Give it a try.

He has done none of those things. Like everything he does, there's zero thought put into it.



Totally rational gripes. Don't care what Trump's party affiliation is. I think that what he's doing is short sighted, naive, and pointless. I've been right for a year now----and Trump has now blown a pointless $30 Billion in cash handouts to rich farmer to drive home my point.

[CU77]

A fan, you should have a gig with a real MSM outlet: NYT, Wapo, Vox, Slate, somewhere. Your clear and pithy analysis deserves to be read by a much bigger crowd than the tiny one here ...

[old salt]

Call me when you get your position figured out.

Hey, I'm not new to this game. I've been saying the same thing since Buchanan told our Brigade to ride to the sound of the guns & Perot warned us to listen to that giant sucking sound.

Growing up, I unloaded, prepped & stocked a lot of produce from local farmers
& helped my Dad carve up their hind quartetrs & dress their hogs (& deer, ...sssh).
I was proud to buy my Vette, then Dodge Caravans, because they were assembled by our customers in StL plants.
My imported car was a Mustang GT assembled in Flint MI.
I'm still using my Black & Decker power tools that were assembled in Easton MD.
Every aircraft I flew, every ship I sailed, every weapon or munition I fired, was made in the USA.
Got plenty of good stuff. Don't need a bunch of cheap junk from China.

We've got to address the trade imbalance some time.
Best to do it from a position of strength, when we've finally got a President
willing to do more than lip service.
Can't be all or nothing, right now. Just swing the pendulum back the other way a little.

We should avoid a another Cold War with both Russia & China.
We should be playing them off against each other,
...as we did before we lost our minds with this collusion delusion.
Ivan's getting frisky. These last 2 close calls were too close for comfort.

[Farfromgeneva]

Because it's Trump. And only Trump. That is borrowing money.

Who's signature is on those three spending bills totaling $2.7 Trillion? That's right. Trump's. Dance all you want. Please. Anything to avoid holding him responsible for anything at all, right? Nope. He owns that signature. He's a politician. A proven liar.

US will not bail on paying bonds, sorry. Sell your nonsense somewhere else, and answer the question: why are we borrowing money from someone we're supposed to be winning a trade war against? Is China the only US Bond owner?

You can't answer it, because there isn't an answer. Because, we can. (see link below)


It's also just one more reason why China is laughing at Trump's fake trade demands.

It a took a while to remember and find, sorry.

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/ar ... bt/272747/

You don't get it. The problem isn't that China is holding already issued bonds. The problem is: what happens if China decides to stop buying bonds as a part of the trade war?

Our expenses are ongoing.

They can’t. Forgive the term but it’s a Mexican standoff as long as the dollar is the worlds currency reserve and the US Treasury Bond curve continues to represent the risk free rate of borrowing (all credit curves are built off the US Bond curve, and it’s T-Bills, notes and long bonds, savings bonds, like EE are anachronistic, retail instruments, not held by sovereign entities).

Price and yield have an inverse relationship, somewhat linear when holding for other considerations. So if China stops buying and the US has to borrow at 6%, instead of 3% for 30yrs now because a large buyer sat the auction out, the price of the 30yr bonds China bought last month (setting aside the on/off the run liquidity premium for new issuance) and worth, rough, back of the napkin math, 91 cents on the dollar. So, $10Bn of bonds bought last month are now worth $9.1Bn, $900mm loss. That sounds like a situation where some mid management finance person in the party is disappearing to a place where your whole body gets pierced.

Biggest risk to this all is there being a global new base reserve currency for the world to price risk off of. Won’t be a commodity ever again, at least not precious metal or
natural resource like energy. There would need to be either a long term competitor currency from a fairly purely representative democracy with strong property rights and open liberties. It’s often something you don’t see coming, the “black swan” (failure of imagination), but this is what we should be concerned about much more than an authoritarian country where rights are provided by the sovereign entity. To me, it would be more like decadent Romans or effete and out of touch French aristocrats, people doing well a decade after the worst crisis in American History (financial) that would’ve started civil wars in 2/3 of the countries in the globe as 250yrs in that we get increasingly superficial, short termist and selfish that we will destroy ok advantage internally, mainly from lack of true competition. The fact that we and almost every other country is retrenching, becoming more xenophobic is the problem because it’s a rejection of many of the platonic ideals espoused about country and that we do all agree on by both us and the rest of the world. Makes alternative political paradigms more palatable, acceptable and competitive.

[a fan]

Call me when you get your position figured out.

Hey, I'm not new to this game. I've been saying the same thing since Buchanan told our Brigade to ride to the sound of the guns & Perot warned us to listen to that giant sucking sound.

Growing up, I unloaded, prepped & stocked a lot of produce from local farmers
& helped my Dad carve up their hind quartetrs & dress their hogs (& deer, ...sssh).
I was proud to buy my Vette, then Dodge Caravans, because they were assembled by our customers in StL plants.
My imported car was a Mustang GT assembled in Flint MI.
I'm still using my Black & Decker power tools that were assembled in Easton MD.
Every aircraft I flew, every ship I sailed, every weapon or munition I fired, was made in the USA.
Got plenty of good stuff. Don't need a bunch of cheap junk from China.

Then for the love of everything holy, why the heck are you a Republican?

Your party has fought---nonstop, in the trenches----to rip apart unions, to open up trade to foreigners, to eliminate every big-business regulation that they can get their hands on, for going on 5 decades.

Hell, they even fought to give foreign owned corporations the right to directly effect our elections, no matter the size of the election.

Do you know how fast Ocasio Cortez would give all those workers free training? And protective tariffs? And put in regulations that make it impossible for countries with lousy human rights records to sell their stuff here?

She do it in a heartbeat. So would Bernie Sanders. So would the entire far left of the Dem party (read: not the Clintons).


What you are describing is the left. I know you know this. Hickenlooper wouldn't do that. Nor Kasich. OAC would.

We've got to address the trade imbalance some time.
Best to do it from a position of strength, when we've finally got a President
willing to do more than lip service.

First of all, we're not in a position of strength. Read my above post. That's my entire problem with this silly move. We're in a ridiculously weak position. It's alarmingly obvious how weak our position is.

Second of all, lip service is precisely what Trump is doing. It's been a year. Can you find, anywhere, what Trump is asking of China? Nope. You think that's an accident? I don't. Trump, as usual, wants a fight, not a result. So that's what he's getting.

Can't be all or nothing, right now. Just swing the pendulum back the other way a little.

The one part that is indeed all or nothing is the IP. That's the part that has China digging in. The rest of the window dressing? They don't care nearly as much about the random trade barriers. What they care about is the ability to rob and cheat and steal. They're not willing to give that up. That's why they have offered Trump nothing.

We should avoid a another Cold War with both Russia & China.
We should be playing them off against each other,
...as we did before we lost our minds with this collusion delusion.

Nope. We did it before Putin got caught messing with our elections. Sorry mate. I know YOU don't care about that, but the rest of us do.
Until Putin stop putting himself into American headlines, he's persona non grata. I mean, do you think Americans care about Ukraine? Nope. Not even a tiny bit. Putin is in the penalty box for hacking and messing with Social Media. If and when he stops doing that, that's when he'll be allowed back at the grown up table.

You can dance around the "you don't understand the Russian mindset" all you want....but you can't ignore the American mindset when you do.

Ivan's getting frisky. These last 2 close calls were too close for comfort.

I thought have a tough guy with a R by his name would end that? Remember those claims? I do. Whoops. Guess foreign leaders don't care about D's and R's.

Putin needs to shut up and take a time out. He does that? He'll get what he wants from America. If not? Prepare for more tension.

Hell, you think Reagan would put up with Putin's cr*p? Reagan would have gone off the deep end the minute he heard Russians were trying to mess with our sacred elections. You and I know it.

[a fan]

They can’t. Forgive the term but it’s a Mexican standoff as long as the dollar is the worlds currency reserve and the US Treasury Bond curve continues to represent the risk free rate of borrowing (all credit curves are built off the US Bond curve, and it’s T-Bills, notes and long bonds, savings bonds, like EE are anachronistic, retail instruments, not held by sovereign entities).

Price and yield have an inverse relationship, somewhat linear when holding for other considerations. So if China stops buying and the US has to borrow at 6%, instead of 3% for 30yrs now because a large buyer sat the auction out, the price of the 30yr bonds China bought last month (setting aside the on/off the run liquidity premium for new issuance) and worth, rough, back of the napkin math, 91 cents on the dollar. So, $10Bn of bonds bought last month are now worth $9.1Bn, $900mm loss. That sounds like a situation where some mid management finance person in the party is disappearing to a place where your whole body gets pierced

You're assuming China is looking to dump the bonds they're holding.

If they sit on the bonds to their maturity, they get their full yield. It's the whole point to the instrument.

Or at least is used to be, before the 1%ers decided they needed to pull in 20%+ a year on their investments or life was no longer worth living.

[old salt]

Call me when you get your position figured out.

Hey, I'm not new to this game. I've been saying the same thing since Buchanan told our Brigade to ride to the sound of the guns & Perot warned us to listen to that giant sucking sound.

Growing up, I unloaded, prepped & stocked a lot of produce from local farmers
& helped my Dad carve up their hind quartetrs & dress their hogs (& deer, ...sssh).
I was proud to buy my Vette, then Dodge Caravans, because they were assembled by our customers in StL plants.
My imported car was a Mustang GT assembled in Flint MI.
I'm still using my Black & Decker power tools that were assembled in Easton MD.
Every aircraft I flew, every ship I sailed, every weapon or munition I fired, was made in the USA.
Got plenty of good stuff. Don't need a bunch of cheap junk from China.

Then for the love of everything holy, why the heck are you a Republican?
I keep telling you -- I'm a Buchanan (R). Have been since I first read him when I was in HS, when he worked for the StL Globe-Democrat, just before he went to work for candidate Nixon.

Your party has fought---nonstop, in the trenches----to rip apart unions Not Buchanan & me. Some unions (UAW) gained too much power. There needs to be a balance., to open up trade to foreigners not the same thing as exporting manufacturing, to eliminate every big-business regulation that they can get their hands on that makes us more competitive globally, for going on 5 decades. That's how long I've been reading & agreeing with Buchanan.

Hell, they even fought to give foreign owned corporations the right to directly effect our elections, no matter the size of the election.
Like Fusion GPS's Russian sourced oppo ?

Do you know how fast Ocasio Cortez would give all those workers free training? And protective tariffs? And put in regulations that make it impossible for countries with lousy human rights records to sell their stuff here? You mean like it was 5 decades ago.

She do it in a heartbeat. So would Bernie Sanders. So would the entire far left of the Dem party (read: not the Clintons).
We can't go all the way back. We have to reverse the pendulum swing. I keep trying to tell you -- I'm not in lockstep with (R) leadership on all issues (e,g, immigration reform, abortions, gun control). You just insist on pounding a square peg in a round hole. You can't see nuance. It's all or nothing.

What you are describing is the left. I know you know this. Hickenlooper wouldn't do that. Nor Kasich. OAC would.
There you go again. All or nothing. How many union votes did Trump take from the (D)'s.

We've got to address the trade imbalance some time.
Best to do it from a position of strength, when we've finally got a President
willing to do more than lip service.

First of all, we're not in a position of strength. Read my above post. That's my entire problem with this silly move. We're in a ridiculously weak position. It's alarmingly obvious how weak our position is.
That's just your opinion. Just saying it doesn't make it so.

Second of all, lip service is precisely what Trump is doing. It's been a year. & he's got 2 years (or more) to go. Can you find, anywhere, what Trump is asking of China? Nope. You think that's an accident? I don't. It's still being negotiated. Kerry assured us, up front, that Iran would give up their ballistic missiles. How'd that work out ? Trump, as usual, wants a fight, not a result. So that's what he's getting.

Can't be all or nothing, right now. Just swing the pendulum back the other way a little.

The one part that is indeed all or nothing is the IP. That's the part that has China digging in. The rest of the window dressing? They don't care nearly as much about the random trade barriers. What they care about is the ability to rob and cheat and steal. They're not willing to give that up. That's why they have offered Trump nothing.

We should avoid a another Cold War with both Russia & China.
We should be playing them off against each other,
...as we did before we lost our minds with this collusion delusion.

Nope. We did it before Putin got caught messing with our elections. Sorry mate. I know YOU don't care about that, but the rest of us do.
Until Putin stop putting himself into American headlines, he's persona non grata. I mean, do you think Americans care about Ukraine? Nope. Not even a tiny bit. Putin is in the penalty box for hacking and messing with Social Media. If and when he stops doing that, that's when he'll be allowed back at the grown up table.

You can dance around the "you don't understand the Russian mindset" all you want....but you can't ignore the American mindset when you do.
You think enough American's give a sh!t about Russian "interference" with their Facebook to go to war ? ..
Then stop b!tch!ng about defense spending. Putin's gonna be there a long time & then we'll still have to deal with the Russian people.

Ivan's getting frisky. These last 2 close calls were too close for comfort.

I thought have a tough guy with a R by his name would end that? Remember those claims? I do. Whoops. Guess foreign leaders don't care about D's and R's.Trump's not that stupid, to retaliate & escalate. It will be handled quietly. Putin just wants to be noticed. We're not pulling out of the Med, Syria, the Baltics, the Black Sea, the South China Sea, or anywhere else that Russia is confronting us.

Putin needs to shut up and take a time out. He does that? He'll get what he wants from America. If not? Prepare for more tension.
You're dreaming. Putin's not gonna change. He's winning.

Hell, you think Reagan would put up with Putin's cr*p? Reagan would have gone off the deep end the minute he heard Russians were trying to mess with our sacred elections. You and I know it. ...& what, specifically, would Reagan have done ? He's the one who engaged the Russians & gave us detente. You think the Soviet leaders he dealt with were any less confrontational than Putin ? We were nose to tail with Ivan all over the globe back then. We did it so much we developed & codified the limits that are being pushed now. You longing for another Iran-Contra. Invading Venezuela would be a little heavier lift than Grenada or Panama.