Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Posted: Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:18 pm
Yes.
Their “model” isn’t “accurate” so you can’t trust them. I have yet to see an “accurate” LBO model but Private Equity continues to feast. Sometimes living with directionally accurate is good enough.DocBarrister wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:13 pm It didn’t have to be nearly this bad. There is no way on Earth that a virus should ever be the second leading cause of death in the United States.
Covid-19 is now the second-leading cause of death in the US, just after heart disease, according to the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).
What happens next with the pandemic largely depends on personal responsibility and how much Americans are willing to fight this battle together.
Already, Covid-19 has killed more people in the US than Americans killed in battle during the five most recent wars combined: the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Iraq War, the War in Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf War.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/22/health/u ... index.html
I know many support Trump because he’s an ignorant, racist, bigoted, misogynistic piece of trash like them. But is one’s ignorance, racism, bigotry, and misogyny worth the deaths of so many people?
DocBarrister
of course you can trust them, they get more pub than anyone else.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:20 pmTheir “model” isn’t “accurate” so you can’t trust them. I have yet to see an “accurate” LBO model but Private Equity continues to feast. Sometimes living with directionally accurate is good enough.DocBarrister wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:13 pm It didn’t have to be nearly this bad. There is no way on Earth that a virus should ever be the second leading cause of death in the United States.
Covid-19 is now the second-leading cause of death in the US, just after heart disease, according to the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).
What happens next with the pandemic largely depends on personal responsibility and how much Americans are willing to fight this battle together.
Already, Covid-19 has killed more people in the US than Americans killed in battle during the five most recent wars combined: the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Iraq War, the War in Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf War.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/22/health/u ... index.html
I know many support Trump because he’s an ignorant, racist, bigoted, misogynistic piece of trash like them. But is one’s ignorance, racism, bigotry, and misogyny worth the deaths of so many people?
DocBarrister
Trust was the wrong word. “Rely” is better word and, as for directionality, there is also a reasonableness factor. I am hoping IHME is way over stated. That would be a good outcome. At the outset, I said anything under a 1% mortality rate is a win. I used Quotes because a “model” is inherently “inaccurate” if 100% is the measuring stick. I am not sure what confidence factor IHME was using but I am sure it wasn’t “the lead pipe cinch factor”. If it’s driving policy, it’s not their fault unless they are expressly working on behalf and at the direction of the United States government.wgdsr wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:32 pmof course you can trust them, they get more pub than anyone else.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:20 pmTheir “model” isn’t “accurate” so you can’t trust them. I have yet to see an “accurate” LBO model but Private Equity continues to feast. Sometimes living with directionally accurate is good enough.DocBarrister wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:13 pm It didn’t have to be nearly this bad. There is no way on Earth that a virus should ever be the second leading cause of death in the United States.
Covid-19 is now the second-leading cause of death in the US, just after heart disease, according to the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).
What happens next with the pandemic largely depends on personal responsibility and how much Americans are willing to fight this battle together.
Already, Covid-19 has killed more people in the US than Americans killed in battle during the five most recent wars combined: the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Iraq War, the War in Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf War.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/22/health/u ... index.html
I know many support Trump because he’s an ignorant, racist, bigoted, misogynistic piece of trash like them. But is one’s ignorance, racism, bigotry, and misogyny worth the deaths of so many people?
DocBarrister
can deaths go down directionally?
as it is, covid-19 has killed more americans than the last 5 most recent wars combined.
their encapsulation now finally incorporates at least the words some prior coronavirus immunity, nothing about t cells or potentially faulty seroprevalence data although it's heavily relied upon... references social media... says most testing is in symptomatic individuals... i could go on --- but let's just say their analysis, conclusions, extrapolations look alarmingly simplistic and elementary, not to mention subjective and poorly sourced.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 4:39 pmTrust was the wrong word. “Rely” is better word and as for directionality, there is a reasonableness factor.wgdsr wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:32 pmof course you can trust them, they get more pub than anyone else.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:20 pmTheir “model” isn’t “accurate” so you can’t trust them. I have yet to see an “accurate” LBO model but Private Equity continues to feast. Sometimes living with directionally accurate is good enough.DocBarrister wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:13 pm It didn’t have to be nearly this bad. There is no way on Earth that a virus should ever be the second leading cause of death in the United States.
Covid-19 is now the second-leading cause of death in the US, just after heart disease, according to the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).
What happens next with the pandemic largely depends on personal responsibility and how much Americans are willing to fight this battle together.
Already, Covid-19 has killed more people in the US than Americans killed in battle during the five most recent wars combined: the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Iraq War, the War in Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf War.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/22/health/u ... index.html
I know many support Trump because he’s an ignorant, racist, bigoted, misogynistic piece of trash like them. But is one’s ignorance, racism, bigotry, and misogyny worth the deaths of so many people?
DocBarrister
can deaths go down directionally?
as it is, covid-19 has killed more americans than the last 5 most recent wars combined.
You mean like this: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-1565wgdsr wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:23 pmtheir encapsulation now finally incorporates at least the words some prior coronavirus immunity, nothing about t cells or potentially faulty seroprevalence data although it's heavily relied upon... references social media... says most testing is in symptomatic individuals... i could go on --- but let's just say their analysis, conclusions, extrapolations look alarmingly simplistic and elementary, not to mention subjective and poorly sourced.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 4:39 pmTrust was the wrong word. “Rely” is better word and as for directionality, there is a reasonableness factor.wgdsr wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:32 pmof course you can trust them, they get more pub than anyone else.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:20 pmTheir “model” isn’t “accurate” so you can’t trust them. I have yet to see an “accurate” LBO model but Private Equity continues to feast. Sometimes living with directionally accurate is good enough.DocBarrister wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:13 pm It didn’t have to be nearly this bad. There is no way on Earth that a virus should ever be the second leading cause of death in the United States.
Covid-19 is now the second-leading cause of death in the US, just after heart disease, according to the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).
What happens next with the pandemic largely depends on personal responsibility and how much Americans are willing to fight this battle together.
Already, Covid-19 has killed more people in the US than Americans killed in battle during the five most recent wars combined: the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Iraq War, the War in Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf War.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/22/health/u ... index.html
I know many support Trump because he’s an ignorant, racist, bigoted, misogynistic piece of trash like them. But is one’s ignorance, racism, bigotry, and misogyny worth the deaths of so many people?
DocBarrister
can deaths go down directionally?
as it is, covid-19 has killed more americans than the last 5 most recent wars combined.
sourcing isn't easy, but... for me... they don't take a lot of the science and epidemiology that has transpired out there to date as much of a guide. on this latest "prediction", i will admit i haven't been able to figure out how they come up with this huge end-of-year spike, so shooting it down makes that more difficult. so i default to how wrong they've been to date on the modeling i've seen them do and what it looks like they are considering and drawing conclusions from. whatever it is they don't like in november and december, be good if they're wrong.
Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:05 pm When I saw that the global numbers showed that 4% of the closed cases resulted in death, it stood to reason that we were worse:
4,528,000
Cases which had an outcome:
4,322,801
(95%) Recovered / Discharged
205,199
(5%) Deaths
thanks for those. what it all means to me is... garbage in (novel virus, uncertainty cubed, limitations, bad and incomplete and faulty inputs) results in garbage out. so not just useless (in my opinion), but at least potentially damaging if marketed. as ihme clearly has been.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:29 pmYou mean like this: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-1565wgdsr wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:23 pmtheir encapsulation now finally incorporates at least the words some prior coronavirus immunity, nothing about t cells or potentially faulty seroprevalence data although it's heavily relied upon... references social media... says most testing is in symptomatic individuals... i could go on --- but let's just say their analysis, conclusions, extrapolations look alarmingly simplistic and elementary, not to mention subjective and poorly sourced.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 4:39 pmTrust was the wrong word. “Rely” is better word and as for directionality, there is a reasonableness factor.wgdsr wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:32 pmof course you can trust them, they get more pub than anyone else.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:20 pmTheir “model” isn’t “accurate” so you can’t trust them. I have yet to see an “accurate” LBO model but Private Equity continues to feast. Sometimes living with directionally accurate is good enough.DocBarrister wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:13 pm It didn’t have to be nearly this bad. There is no way on Earth that a virus should ever be the second leading cause of death in the United States.
Covid-19 is now the second-leading cause of death in the US, just after heart disease, according to the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).
What happens next with the pandemic largely depends on personal responsibility and how much Americans are willing to fight this battle together.
Already, Covid-19 has killed more people in the US than Americans killed in battle during the five most recent wars combined: the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Iraq War, the War in Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf War.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/22/health/u ... index.html
I know many support Trump because he’s an ignorant, racist, bigoted, misogynistic piece of trash like them. But is one’s ignorance, racism, bigotry, and misogyny worth the deaths of so many people?
DocBarrister
can deaths go down directionally?
as it is, covid-19 has killed more americans than the last 5 most recent wars combined.
sourcing isn't easy, but... for me... they don't take a lot of the science and epidemiology that has transpired out there to date as much of a guide. on this latest "prediction", i will admit i haven't been able to figure out how they come up with this huge end-of-year spike, so shooting it down makes that more difficult. so i default to how wrong they've been to date on the modeling i've seen them do and what it looks like they are considering and drawing conclusions from. whatever it is they don't like in november and december, be good if they're wrong.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2016822
Does prediction = model output?
Having for what seems like a lifetime running and analyzing models, I take them with a grain of salt. I hope nobody in government assumes that the information has a lead pipe cinch confidence factor. Is that group marketing or publishing it’s data?wgdsr wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:56 pmthanks for those. what it all means to me is... garbage in (novel virus, uncertainty cubed, limitations, bad and incomplete and faulty inputs) results in garbage out. so not just useless (in my opinion), but at least potentially damaging if marketed. as ihme clearly has been.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:29 pmYou mean like this: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-1565wgdsr wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:23 pmtheir encapsulation now finally incorporates at least the words some prior coronavirus immunity, nothing about t cells or potentially faulty seroprevalence data although it's heavily relied upon... references social media... says most testing is in symptomatic individuals... i could go on --- but let's just say their analysis, conclusions, extrapolations look alarmingly simplistic and elementary, not to mention subjective and poorly sourced.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 4:39 pmTrust was the wrong word. “Rely” is better word and as for directionality, there is a reasonableness factor.wgdsr wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:32 pmof course you can trust them, they get more pub than anyone else.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:20 pmTheir “model” isn’t “accurate” so you can’t trust them. I have yet to see an “accurate” LBO model but Private Equity continues to feast. Sometimes living with directionally accurate is good enough.DocBarrister wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:13 pm It didn’t have to be nearly this bad. There is no way on Earth that a virus should ever be the second leading cause of death in the United States.
Covid-19 is now the second-leading cause of death in the US, just after heart disease, according to the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).
What happens next with the pandemic largely depends on personal responsibility and how much Americans are willing to fight this battle together.
Already, Covid-19 has killed more people in the US than Americans killed in battle during the five most recent wars combined: the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Iraq War, the War in Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf War.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/22/health/u ... index.html
I know many support Trump because he’s an ignorant, racist, bigoted, misogynistic piece of trash like them. But is one’s ignorance, racism, bigotry, and misogyny worth the deaths of so many people?
DocBarrister
can deaths go down directionally?
as it is, covid-19 has killed more americans than the last 5 most recent wars combined.
sourcing isn't easy, but... for me... they don't take a lot of the science and epidemiology that has transpired out there to date as much of a guide. on this latest "prediction", i will admit i haven't been able to figure out how they come up with this huge end-of-year spike, so shooting it down makes that more difficult. so i default to how wrong they've been to date on the modeling i've seen them do and what it looks like they are considering and drawing conclusions from. whatever it is they don't like in november and december, be good if they're wrong.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2016822
Does prediction = model output?
here's from the group that they rely on, it looks like heavily, to judge mask wearing across the country... from a daily facebook survey. which they market heavily to their numbers depression. it's a world map from their survey on % of people with covid-like symptoms.
https://covidmap.umd.edu/map/
does that look accurate overall?
i'd imagine they're doing both.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:06 pmHaving for what seems like a lifetime running and analyzing models, I take them with a grain of salt. I hope nobody in government assumes that the information has a lead pipe cinch confidence factor. Is that group marketing or publishing it’s data?wgdsr wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:56 pmthanks for those. what it all means to me is... garbage in (novel virus, uncertainty cubed, limitations, bad and incomplete and faulty inputs) results in garbage out. so not just useless (in my opinion), but at least potentially damaging if marketed. as ihme clearly has been.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:29 pmYou mean like this: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-1565wgdsr wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:23 pmtheir encapsulation now finally incorporates at least the words some prior coronavirus immunity, nothing about t cells or potentially faulty seroprevalence data although it's heavily relied upon... references social media... says most testing is in symptomatic individuals... i could go on --- but let's just say their analysis, conclusions, extrapolations look alarmingly simplistic and elementary, not to mention subjective and poorly sourced.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 4:39 pmTrust was the wrong word. “Rely” is better word and as for directionality, there is a reasonableness factor.wgdsr wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:32 pmof course you can trust them, they get more pub than anyone else.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:20 pmTheir “model” isn’t “accurate” so you can’t trust them. I have yet to see an “accurate” LBO model but Private Equity continues to feast. Sometimes living with directionally accurate is good enough.DocBarrister wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:13 pm It didn’t have to be nearly this bad. There is no way on Earth that a virus should ever be the second leading cause of death in the United States.
Covid-19 is now the second-leading cause of death in the US, just after heart disease, according to the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).
What happens next with the pandemic largely depends on personal responsibility and how much Americans are willing to fight this battle together.
Already, Covid-19 has killed more people in the US than Americans killed in battle during the five most recent wars combined: the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Iraq War, the War in Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf War.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/22/health/u ... index.html
I know many support Trump because he’s an ignorant, racist, bigoted, misogynistic piece of trash like them. But is one’s ignorance, racism, bigotry, and misogyny worth the deaths of so many people?
DocBarrister
can deaths go down directionally?
as it is, covid-19 has killed more americans than the last 5 most recent wars combined.
sourcing isn't easy, but... for me... they don't take a lot of the science and epidemiology that has transpired out there to date as much of a guide. on this latest "prediction", i will admit i haven't been able to figure out how they come up with this huge end-of-year spike, so shooting it down makes that more difficult. so i default to how wrong they've been to date on the modeling i've seen them do and what it looks like they are considering and drawing conclusions from. whatever it is they don't like in november and december, be good if they're wrong.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2016822
Does prediction = model output?
here's from the group that they rely on, it looks like heavily, to judge mask wearing across the country... from a daily facebook survey. which they market heavily to their numbers depression. it's a world map from their survey on % of people with covid-like symptoms.
https://covidmap.umd.edu/map/
does that look accurate overall?
A mask is Stupid https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2662657/
Who is IHME marketing their model to and how are they compensated....as for mask, a lot of the variability in their model is with/without masks. Are you in favor of no modeling at all? ( BTW, you brought up Masks before I did. It seems you were questioning the need for them in some places).wgdsr wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:11 pmi'd imagine they're doing both.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:06 pmHaving for what seems like a lifetime running and analyzing models, I take them with a grain of salt. I hope nobody in government assumes that the information has a lead pipe cinch confidence factor. Is that group marketing or publishing it’s data?wgdsr wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:56 pmthanks for those. what it all means to me is... garbage in (novel virus, uncertainty cubed, limitations, bad and incomplete and faulty inputs) results in garbage out. so not just useless (in my opinion), but at least potentially damaging if marketed. as ihme clearly has been.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:29 pmYou mean like this: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-1565wgdsr wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:23 pmtheir encapsulation now finally incorporates at least the words some prior coronavirus immunity, nothing about t cells or potentially faulty seroprevalence data although it's heavily relied upon... references social media... says most testing is in symptomatic individuals... i could go on --- but let's just say their analysis, conclusions, extrapolations look alarmingly simplistic and elementary, not to mention subjective and poorly sourced.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 4:39 pmTrust was the wrong word. “Rely” is better word and as for directionality, there is a reasonableness factor.wgdsr wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:32 pmof course you can trust them, they get more pub than anyone else.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:20 pmTheir “model” isn’t “accurate” so you can’t trust them. I have yet to see an “accurate” LBO model but Private Equity continues to feast. Sometimes living with directionally accurate is good enough.DocBarrister wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:13 pm It didn’t have to be nearly this bad. There is no way on Earth that a virus should ever be the second leading cause of death in the United States.
Covid-19 is now the second-leading cause of death in the US, just after heart disease, according to the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).
What happens next with the pandemic largely depends on personal responsibility and how much Americans are willing to fight this battle together.
Already, Covid-19 has killed more people in the US than Americans killed in battle during the five most recent wars combined: the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Iraq War, the War in Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf War.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/22/health/u ... index.html
I know many support Trump because he’s an ignorant, racist, bigoted, misogynistic piece of trash like them. But is one’s ignorance, racism, bigotry, and misogyny worth the deaths of so many people?
DocBarrister
can deaths go down directionally?
as it is, covid-19 has killed more americans than the last 5 most recent wars combined.
sourcing isn't easy, but... for me... they don't take a lot of the science and epidemiology that has transpired out there to date as much of a guide. on this latest "prediction", i will admit i haven't been able to figure out how they come up with this huge end-of-year spike, so shooting it down makes that more difficult. so i default to how wrong they've been to date on the modeling i've seen them do and what it looks like they are considering and drawing conclusions from. whatever it is they don't like in november and december, be good if they're wrong.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2016822
Does prediction = model output?
here's from the group that they rely on, it looks like heavily, to judge mask wearing across the country... from a daily facebook survey. which they market heavily to their numbers depression. it's a world map from their survey on % of people with covid-like symptoms.
https://covidmap.umd.edu/map/
does that look accurate overall?
does it matter who is doing the marketing?
if you bought this group's lbo model, grain of salt or not you'd fire them. in my opinion!
I'm puzzled, wgdsr, what exactly is your beef with their performance to date?Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:20 pmWho is IHME marketing their model to and how are they compensated....as for mask, a lot of the variability in their model is with/without masks. Are you in favor of no modeling at all?wgdsr wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:11 pmi'd imagine they're doing both.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:06 pmHaving for what seems like a lifetime running and analyzing models, I take them with a grain of salt. I hope nobody in government assumes that the information has a lead pipe cinch confidence factor. Is that group marketing or publishing it’s data?wgdsr wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:56 pmthanks for those. what it all means to me is... garbage in (novel virus, uncertainty cubed, limitations, bad and incomplete and faulty inputs) results in garbage out. so not just useless (in my opinion), but at least potentially damaging if marketed. as ihme clearly has been.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:29 pmYou mean like this: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-1565wgdsr wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:23 pmtheir encapsulation now finally incorporates at least the words some prior coronavirus immunity, nothing about t cells or potentially faulty seroprevalence data although it's heavily relied upon... references social media... says most testing is in symptomatic individuals... i could go on --- but let's just say their analysis, conclusions, extrapolations look alarmingly simplistic and elementary, not to mention subjective and poorly sourced.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 4:39 pmTrust was the wrong word. “Rely” is better word and as for directionality, there is a reasonableness factor.wgdsr wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:32 pmof course you can trust them, they get more pub than anyone else.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:20 pmTheir “model” isn’t “accurate” so you can’t trust them. I have yet to see an “accurate” LBO model but Private Equity continues to feast. Sometimes living with directionally accurate is good enough.DocBarrister wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:13 pm It didn’t have to be nearly this bad. There is no way on Earth that a virus should ever be the second leading cause of death in the United States.
Covid-19 is now the second-leading cause of death in the US, just after heart disease, according to the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).
What happens next with the pandemic largely depends on personal responsibility and how much Americans are willing to fight this battle together.
Already, Covid-19 has killed more people in the US than Americans killed in battle during the five most recent wars combined: the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Iraq War, the War in Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf War.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/22/health/u ... index.html
I know many support Trump because he’s an ignorant, racist, bigoted, misogynistic piece of trash like them. But is one’s ignorance, racism, bigotry, and misogyny worth the deaths of so many people?
DocBarrister
can deaths go down directionally?
as it is, covid-19 has killed more americans than the last 5 most recent wars combined.
sourcing isn't easy, but... for me... they don't take a lot of the science and epidemiology that has transpired out there to date as much of a guide. on this latest "prediction", i will admit i haven't been able to figure out how they come up with this huge end-of-year spike, so shooting it down makes that more difficult. so i default to how wrong they've been to date on the modeling i've seen them do and what it looks like they are considering and drawing conclusions from. whatever it is they don't like in november and december, be good if they're wrong.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2016822
Does prediction = model output?
here's from the group that they rely on, it looks like heavily, to judge mask wearing across the country... from a daily facebook survey. which they market heavily to their numbers depression. it's a world map from their survey on % of people with covid-like symptoms.
https://covidmap.umd.edu/map/
does that look accurate overall?
does it matter who is doing the marketing?
if you bought this group's lbo model, grain of salt or not you'd fire them. in my opinion!
Normally I would dismiss a post like this as sarcasm, parody, simplistic trolling, or even a joke.
DocBarrister wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 8:12 pmNormally I would dismiss a post like this as sarcasm, parody, simplistic trolling, or even a joke.
However, I have never seen you able to grasp the nuances and subtleties necessary for parody. Your thinking is too concrete to offer sarcasm. You don’t really have the sense of humor to be a knowing troll or to tell a joke.
So, I can only surmise that you seriously mean what you say here.
Needless to say, it’s a callous, disgusting, and absolutely repugnant post.
DocBarrister
Those who die of COVID-19 are older and have on average fewer years of remaining life expectancy than the average person (11.7 y instead of 45.8 y).
The quoted numbers are since the beginning of the pandemic (all time). It is lower now depending on the period you choose to look at. Don't wait too long. When I look at the Hopkins data I see both new cases and deaths increasing again. We are not out of this yet. You know the UofW prediction. Whether you believe their quoted numbers or not, the direction of the prediction is absolutely clear.Bart wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 12:33 pmIn nys just yesterday there were 754 new cases. That means using your data approx, there should be 37 deaths out of this and 716 resolved recoveries. NYS has not had a death total, that I can remember from Andy's tweets, above 10 for quite some time. Do you think they might be underestimating/reporting the number of resolved cases? Yes I know there is a lag but the number of new cases has been fairly consistent for quite some time. Right around 1% of testing.jhu72 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:50 am... in the US there are currently 5 deaths per 95 recoveries, approx. 5% of resolved cases.kramerica.inc wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:15 am What's the fatality rate at these days?
What about serious case rate?
Is it waning?
Local MD colleges are not shutting anything down with sysmptoms- or requiring a test right now. They just make the student/faculty stay home for 2 weeks and return after your quarantine.
This coronavirus model keeps being wrong. Why are we still listening to it? A model that the White House has relied on has come under fire for its flawed projections.jhu72 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:13 pmThe quoted numbers are since the beginning of the pandemic (all time). It is lower now depending on the period you choose to look at. Don't wait too long. When I look at the Hopkins data I see both new cases and deaths increasing again. We are not out of this yet. You know the UofW prediction. Whether you believe their quoted numbers or not, the direction of the prediction is absolutely clear.Bart wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 12:33 pmIn nys just yesterday there were 754 new cases. That means using your data approx, there should be 37 deaths out of this and 716 resolved recoveries. NYS has not had a death total, that I can remember from Andy's tweets, above 10 for quite some time. Do you think they might be underestimating/reporting the number of resolved cases? Yes I know there is a lag but the number of new cases has been fairly consistent for quite some time. Right around 1% of testing.jhu72 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:50 am... in the US there are currently 5 deaths per 95 recoveries, approx. 5% of resolved cases.kramerica.inc wrote: ↑Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:15 am What's the fatality rate at these days?
What about serious case rate?
Is it waning?
Local MD colleges are not shutting anything down with sysmptoms- or requiring a test right now. They just make the student/faculty stay home for 2 weeks and return after your quarantine.