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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 6:17 pm
by Peter Brown
youthathletics wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 6:10 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 6:00 pm
youthathletics wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 5:56 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 5:41 pm
youthathletics wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 5:02 pm
ggait wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 3:54 pm
Meanwhile, the actual report is correct. 94% of those who have died did in fact have underlying conditions. No one said this is WHY they died. In fact, at this stage, no one knows.
JFC. Just look up the CDC excess death data.

USA has had 200k excess deaths this year through July. The rate of excess deaths started to spike up in mid-March and has continued since then. The peak excess deaths occurred in April.

Gee, anyone have any ideas of something unusual going on during that time period? Any ideas at all? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller? Bueller?

Did cancer mutate and suddenly get a lot worse? Did people rapidly develop new incidences of obesity, heart disease, diabetes, etc. at rates higher than before? Did we all of a sudden start having more gunshot wounds? More motorcycle crashes? Was there a big earthquake/hurricane/wild fire that killed thousands of people during that time period? Was there a big anthrax terrorist attack?

People die for some reason/reasons. So what was it?

Such utter and complete gaslighting ignorant bull shirt to say we have no idea "why" these people started die-ing when they did.
We did all of a sudden have complete shutdown of society, so much so that people with pre-existing conditions were not getting their standard of medical care. Not implying all those excess deaths equaled people that died at home due in part to an inability to reach a hospital.
No, large parts of our country did not shutdown, and no part of the country shutdown "completely", certainly not akin to what the Chinese did.

The parts of the country in which people with various other medical needs were avoiding care were those in which hospital wards, emergency rooms, and waiting rooms were overrun with COVID cases, with barely enough or not enough PPE for the medical staff much less other non-infected patients. No government order created that situation unnecessarily, it was the reality of a rampant virus spread crowding out other priorities.

It would indeed be true that some 'excess deaths' were the result of less available medical care in those hot zones, but it wasn't because of a lockdown, it's because docs and nurses were already pulling double and triple shifts. Capacity was crushed.

But that didn't last many months, yet excess deaths continue to outpace measured Covid.
....you proved my point, in your own friggen words :lol: It would have been easier to just say. I agree, but disagree on the total lockdown. ;)
hmmm, trying reading it again.

Your key point was total, "complete shutdown of society" ...not remotely correct. And then we took our foot off the gas at the end of the most intense push, just when we knew we needed another month.

and why the trauma over my finding something to agree with, albeit with some nuance?
Okay 95% of the country damned near shut down...nuance enough? ;)


Prepare for an overreaction to flu season this year as well. “We’ve proven masks to be effective during covid so we should use them during all flu seasons”. It’s coming. These bozos are on power trips.

Excess deaths wouldn’t be much of a thing if only three Democrat governors hadn’t sent sick people back into nursing homes.

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 7:46 pm
by RedFromMI
Peter Brown wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 6:17 pm (omitted)


Prepare for an overreaction to flu season this year as well. “We’ve proven masks to be effective during covid so we should use them during all flu seasons”. It’s coming. These bozos are on power trips.

Excess deaths wouldn’t be much of a thing if only three Democrat governors hadn’t sent sick people back into nursing homes.
As is usual PB is blowing smoke out of his tail end. For the state that was worst hit early in the pandemic, there are well under 7K nursing home and adult care facility deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of about a week ago. Hardly a major factor (actually a few percent) in the well over 200K deaths nationwide when considering excess death estimates.

He must just make sh!t up...

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 8:02 pm
by ggait
Excess deaths wouldn’t be much of a thing if only three Democrat governors hadn’t sent sick people back into nursing homes.
Funny, but that pesky "excess death" thing also seems to be happening in Guv Ronnie's Florida?

A look at the past six months in Florida shows why health experts are increasingly concerned about death toll numbers here. Between January to June 30, Florida reported 8,671 excess deaths, that’s more than double the 3,650 deaths the state attributed to COVID-19.

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 8:09 pm
by ggait
Dr. Birx today:

"Do the right thing today. Because if we do the right thing today, we go into the fall with much fewer cases. Right now, we gain freedom through wearing our masks and socially distancing," Birx said.

Petey today:

Prepare for an overreaction to flu season this year as well. “We’ve proven masks to be effective during covid so we should use them during all flu seasons”. It’s coming. These bozos are on power trips.

Yeah, that Dr. Birx strikes me as an out-of-control power tripper. Petey is so much more credible and informed -- let's go with what he says. :roll:

#peteyisamoron

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 8:11 pm
by wgdsr
RedFromMI wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 7:46 pm
Peter Brown wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 6:17 pm (omitted)

Prepare for an overreaction to flu season this year as well. “We’ve proven masks to be effective during covid so we should use them during all flu seasons”. It’s coming. These bozos are on power trips.

Excess deaths wouldn’t be much of a thing if only three Democrat governors hadn’t sent sick people back into nursing homes.
As is usual PB is blowing smoke out of his tail end. For the state that was worst hit early in the pandemic, there are well under 7K nursing home and adult care facility deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of about a week ago. Hardly a major factor (actually a few percent) in the well over 200K deaths nationwide when considering excess death estimates.

He must just make sh!t up...
notwithstanding your larger point, no one has any idea what new york's nursing home deal is and won't until there's a full accounting. if there ever is one. if they got 'em off the property, not a nursing home death. and who knows what other reporting/diagnosis issues.
https://apnews.com/212ccd87924b6906053703a00514647f

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 8:19 pm
by RedFromMI
wgdsr wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 8:11 pm
RedFromMI wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 7:46 pm
Peter Brown wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 6:17 pm (omitted)

Prepare for an overreaction to flu season this year as well. “We’ve proven masks to be effective during covid so we should use them during all flu seasons”. It’s coming. These bozos are on power trips.

Excess deaths wouldn’t be much of a thing if only three Democrat governors hadn’t sent sick people back into nursing homes.
As is usual PB is blowing smoke out of his tail end. For the state that was worst hit early in the pandemic, there are well under 7K nursing home and adult care facility deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of about a week ago. Hardly a major factor (actually a few percent) in the well over 200K deaths nationwide when considering excess death estimates.

He must just make sh!t up...
notwithstanding your larger point, no one has any idea what new york's nursing home deal is and won't until there's a full accounting. if there ever is one. if they got 'em off the property, not a nursing home death. and who knows what other reporting/diagnosis issues.
https://apnews.com/212ccd87924b6906053703a00514647f
True - but the numbers are quite small compared to the totals. That means that while there were a lot of deaths, they just were not that big a percentage. Even double a few percent is still basically a few percent or so.

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 8:22 pm
by Typical Lax Dad
wgdsr wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 8:11 pm
RedFromMI wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 7:46 pm
Peter Brown wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 6:17 pm (omitted)

Prepare for an overreaction to flu season this year as well. “We’ve proven masks to be effective during covid so we should use them during all flu seasons”. It’s coming. These bozos are on power trips.

Excess deaths wouldn’t be much of a thing if only three Democrat governors hadn’t sent sick people back into nursing homes.
As is usual PB is blowing smoke out of his tail end. For the state that was worst hit early in the pandemic, there are well under 7K nursing home and adult care facility deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of about a week ago. Hardly a major factor (actually a few percent) in the well over 200K deaths nationwide when considering excess death estimates.

He must just make sh!t up...
notwithstanding your larger point, no one has any idea what new york's nursing home deal is and won't until there's a full accounting. if there ever is one. if they got 'em off the property, not a nursing home death. and who knows what other reporting/diagnosis issues.
https://apnews.com/212ccd87924b6906053703a00514647f
I don’t understand these articles. 6,400 deaths have been reported. As a %, NYS nursing home deaths seem to be underrepresented. Seems like figuring out which people were picked up at a nursing home and died in a hospital should be easy to figure out. At the end, NYS numbers will migrate to the mean.

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 9:30 pm
by njbill
youthathletics wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 5:02 pm
ggait wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 3:54 pm
Meanwhile, the actual report is correct. 94% of those who have died did in fact have underlying conditions. No one said this is WHY they died. In fact, at this stage, no one knows.
JFC. Just look up the CDC excess death data.

USA has had 200k excess deaths this year through July. The rate of excess deaths started to spike up in mid-March and has continued since then. The peak excess deaths occurred in April.

Gee, anyone have any ideas of something unusual going on during that time period? Any ideas at all? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller? Bueller?

Did cancer mutate and suddenly get a lot worse? Did people rapidly develop new incidences of obesity, heart disease, diabetes, etc. at rates higher than before? Did we all of a sudden start having more gunshot wounds? More motorcycle crashes? Was there a big earthquake/hurricane/wild fire that killed thousands of people during that time period? Was there a big anthrax terrorist attack?

People die for some reason/reasons. So what was it?

Such utter and complete gaslighting ignorant bull shirt to say we have no idea "why" these people started die-ing when they did.
We did all of a sudden have complete shutdown of society, so much so that people with pre-existing conditions were not getting their standard of medical care. Not implying all those excess deaths equaled people that died at home due in part to an inability to reach a hospital.
I think it is fair to speculate that some of the excess deaths this year have been due to non-Covid conditions and occurred because people didn't or couldn't seek treatment.

But I think it is also fair to say that some number of people didn't die this year from, e.g., the flu because people in general were taking extensive precautions to guard against getting Covid which prevented them from getting (and dying of) the flu.

I would think stats are available to break down 2020 deaths by cause, at least for the "explained" deaths. Then those stats could be compared to stats of average annual deaths by cause in prior years to see whether the number of explained non-Covid deaths by cause this year is higher or lower than in years past. Are heart attack deaths up this year? Are flu deaths down? I think this exercise would give us a better handle on how many unexplained excess deaths may be due to Covid.

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Tue Sep 01, 2020 3:29 am
by dislaxxic
Contact tracing works almost everywhere else. Why not here?

I think we all know why...this whole thing is just a vicious hoax created by leftist thugs to harm our heroic president.

..

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Tue Sep 01, 2020 8:20 am
by Peter Brown
First of all, if I see you wearing a mask inside your car and no one else is inside (looking at you Fanlax Dems), we get it: you're voting for Biden.

But here's the real deal: if you wear a mask on inside a car, with no one else around you, you should not be given the right to vote in any democracy except maybe a Lower School 4th grade popularity contest where nominees promise to put Coca Cola in the water fountains. You are both too dumb and too scared to be a functional participant in our great country.

In other news, the virus is dying out and libs are upset it is.

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/u ... ey-metrics

Look at any metric.

Now let's get back to work. Thanks.

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Tue Sep 01, 2020 8:27 am
by seacoaster

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Tue Sep 01, 2020 9:02 am
by ggait
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 8:20 am
In other news, the virus is dying out and libs are upset it is.

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/u ... ey-metrics

Look at any metric.

Now let's get back to work. Thanks.
FYI cases, hospitalizations and deaths are all still worse today than they were a month ago. Very much tbd if they will continue to decline or plateau or increase again.

So another premature declaration by the Gator troll boy. Tell me about it, says his Democrat wife.

#peteyisamoron

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Tue Sep 01, 2020 10:26 am
by MDlaxfan76
youthathletics wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 6:10 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 6:00 pm
youthathletics wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 5:56 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 5:41 pm
youthathletics wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 5:02 pm
ggait wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 3:54 pm
Meanwhile, the actual report is correct. 94% of those who have died did in fact have underlying conditions. No one said this is WHY they died. In fact, at this stage, no one knows.
JFC. Just look up the CDC excess death data.

USA has had 200k excess deaths this year through July. The rate of excess deaths started to spike up in mid-March and has continued since then. The peak excess deaths occurred in April.

Gee, anyone have any ideas of something unusual going on during that time period? Any ideas at all? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller? Bueller?

Did cancer mutate and suddenly get a lot worse? Did people rapidly develop new incidences of obesity, heart disease, diabetes, etc. at rates higher than before? Did we all of a sudden start having more gunshot wounds? More motorcycle crashes? Was there a big earthquake/hurricane/wild fire that killed thousands of people during that time period? Was there a big anthrax terrorist attack?

People die for some reason/reasons. So what was it?

Such utter and complete gaslighting ignorant bull shirt to say we have no idea "why" these people started die-ing when they did.
We did all of a sudden have complete shutdown of society, so much so that people with pre-existing conditions were not getting their standard of medical care. Not implying all those excess deaths equaled people that died at home due in part to an inability to reach a hospital.
No, large parts of our country did not shutdown, and no part of the country shutdown "completely", certainly not akin to what the Chinese did.

The parts of the country in which people with various other medical needs were avoiding care were those in which hospital wards, emergency rooms, and waiting rooms were overrun with COVID cases, with barely enough or not enough PPE for the medical staff much less other non-infected patients. No government order created that situation unnecessarily, it was the reality of a rampant virus spread crowding out other priorities.

It would indeed be true that some 'excess deaths' were the result of less available medical care in those hot zones, but it wasn't because of a lockdown, it's because docs and nurses were already pulling double and triple shifts. Capacity was crushed.

But that didn't last many months, yet excess deaths continue to outpace measured Covid.
....you proved my point, in your own friggen words :lol: It would have been easier to just say. I agree, but disagree on the total lockdown. ;)
hmmm, trying reading it again.

Your key point was total, "complete shutdown of society" ...not remotely correct. And then we took our foot off the gas at the end of the most intense push, just when we knew we needed another month.

and why the trauma over my finding something to agree with, albeit with some nuance?
Okay 95% of the country damned near shut down...nuance enough? ;)
No, 95% didn't get close...about 40-60% of the population did, depending on region. Part of that was unavoidable, we needed to keep truly essential services open. But a huge part was that many regions thought they didn't need to do so, and a huge part of the population didn't think it was necessary to remain socially distanced, to wear masks when not able to be isolated.

That's still the problem. Mask wearing has improved, but not nearly enough.

So, we never got back to a low enough incidence level to do effective contact tracing, testing, and isolation, made even worse because of no national program to do so.

But many of us have indeed dramatically transformed our activities and behaviors, and it's definitely helped.

Too bad we weren't, and still aren't, all pulling in the same direction, led by an Administration that knew that this was a crisis which called for national organization. Instead we had communication that the crisis was a 'hoax' made up by the media and political opposition, that mask wearing represented weakness, that the virus would go away on its own independent of anything we did, and that the responsibility for the response was a local matter, and, at least for many months, a 'blue state' issue not a national issue.

I don't think this Administration's leadership is going to change course in their final months in office, but much of the citizenry continues to adapt to the reality of the virus rather than the politics from on high. We should all do our best and encourage others to do the same.

Regardless of who is in the Oval Office in February, right now we're hoping rather desperately for an effective and safe vaccine to be widely distributed in 2021 and for effective therapies to continue to reduce the severity of impacts of infection.

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Tue Sep 01, 2020 10:53 am
by ggait
No, 95% didn't get close...about 40-60% of the population did, depending on region.
As a nation, we simply just did not do the work. Here's the data (per UW):

The lowest level of SD the USA hit was -52% on April 7. -41% on May 1. -28% on June 1. -23% on July 1. -25% on August 1. That's a half hearted attempt that really never hammered the virus down far enough.

Now let's look at, say, France.

-84% on March 24. -82% on April 1. -75% on May 1. -36% on June 1. -19% on July 1. -25% on August 1.

Result -- USA 7 day average deaths 952. France 15.

Just too many free-riders. Too many deniers. Too many folks who don't give a shirt about their fellow citizens. Too many wimpy whiney dumb asses like Petey. And one really lousy president riffing about UV light, HCQ and full Easter churches to sweet talk the stock market and try to get re-elected.

It just ain't that complicated guys.

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Tue Sep 01, 2020 10:57 am
by Typical Lax Dad
ggait wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 10:53 am
No, 95% didn't get close...about 40-60% of the population did, depending on region.
As a nation, we simply just did not do the work. Here's the data (per UW):

The lowest level of SD the USA hit was -52% on April 7. -41% on May 1. -28% on June 1. -23% on July 1. -25% on August 1. That's a half hearted attempt that really never hammered the virus down far enough.

Now let's look at, say, France.

-84% on March 24. -82% on April 1. -75% on May 1. -36% on June 1. -19% on July 1. -25% on August 1.

Result -- USA 7 day average deaths 952. France 15.

Just too many free-riders. Too many deniers. Too many folks who don't give a shirt about their fellow citizens. Too many wimpy whiney dumb asses like Petey. And one really lousy president riffing about UV light, HCQ and full Easter churches to sweet talk the stock market and try to get re-elected.

It just ain't that complicated guys.
This is what I mentioned back in May. We didn't go deep enough or long enough. We are going to limp along because of it.

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Tue Sep 01, 2020 11:06 am
by MDlaxfan76
Just to be clear, nothing Trump "sweet talked" positively effected the stock market, the Federal Reserve liquidity moves did nearly all of the work, along with the trillions of fiscal pumping.

Enormous liquidity infusion, coupled with driving Treasury interest rates below equity dividend and corporate bond yields, drove huge excess % into the market. The Federal Reserve's announced new policy this month provides a new floor for expectations of continued liquidity posture, so the markets should continue to have upward pressure even when the real economy begins to heat up and normal inflationary pressures might be a concern. The Fed has made the determination that inflation will not be a significant risk for the foreseeable future.

Others who live and breathe this stuff far more than me may wish to correct or provide some nuance to the above.

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Tue Sep 01, 2020 11:59 am
by dislaxxic
seacoaster wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 8:27 am Good article:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/31/opin ... nEs3emUfsM
Money quote in the article sc shared:
These changes by the C.D.C. will undermine efforts to end the pandemic, slow the return to normal economic, educational and social activities, and increase the loss of lives.
In other words, Donald Trump has booted this pandemic issue SO badly, that the whole thing is CLEARLY extending far beyond the life it would have had if a reasonably competent executive had had the brains and emotional, moral ability to DEAL WITH IT PROPERLY.

That's right, Trump's Pandemic is exponentially worse than it would have been if he'd been back on Page 6 where he belongs...

..

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:37 pm
by ggait
This is what I mentioned back in May. We didn't go deep enough or long enough. We are going to limp along because of it.
It is so obvious.

USA -52% on April 7. France -82% on April 1.

USA -41% on May 1. France -75%.

And as we all recall, May 1 was when we started opening everything back up. With Gov. Ron spiking the football on May 21. Forking idiot.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x1VU8MTx2oU

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:40 pm
by Peter Brown
dislaxxic wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 11:59 am
seacoaster wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 8:27 am Good article:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/31/opin ... nEs3emUfsM
Money quote in the article sc shared:
These changes by the C.D.C. will undermine efforts to end the pandemic, slow the return to normal economic, educational and social activities, and increase the loss of lives.
In other words, Donald Trump has booted this pandemic issue SO badly, that the whole thing is CLEARLY extending far beyond the life it would have had if a reasonably competent executive had had the brains and emotional, moral ability to DEAL WITH IT PROPERLY.

That's right, Trump's Pandemic is exponentially worse than it would have been if he'd been back on Page 6 where he belongs...

..


No one tell diss and gait what the death tolls of New York and new jersey are. Might cramp their heads.

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Posted: Tue Sep 01, 2020 1:13 pm
by MDlaxfan76
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:40 pm
dislaxxic wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 11:59 am
seacoaster wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 8:27 am Good article:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/31/opin ... nEs3emUfsM
Money quote in the article sc shared:
These changes by the C.D.C. will undermine efforts to end the pandemic, slow the return to normal economic, educational and social activities, and increase the loss of lives.
In other words, Donald Trump has booted this pandemic issue SO badly, that the whole thing is CLEARLY extending far beyond the life it would have had if a reasonably competent executive had had the brains and emotional, moral ability to DEAL WITH IT PROPERLY.

That's right, Trump's Pandemic is exponentially worse than it would have been if he'd been back on Page 6 where he belongs...

..


No one tell diss and gait what the death tolls of New York and new jersey are. Might cramp their heads.
Yesterday:
Florida 64, trailing 7 days avg. 113
New York. 9 trailing 7 days avg. 8
New Jersey 7 trailing 7 days avg. 5