All things CoronaVirus

[wgdsr]

when it's all analyzed, i do think you'll see timing had played a major role. here in the u.s. our giving the virus enough rope to keep hanging us (and minimizing effectiveness of some efforts like testing, tracing) may turn into a full intermediate term burn that a place like sweden got thru quickly.

I agree with this.

Places that were hit hard early (Italy, Spain, UK, Sweden, NYC, Seattle, SF) got serious about SD and hammered the virus down to a low level and a problem that was of a manage-able size. Different places had different profiles (density, age demographics, etc.) and so would need different and bigger/smaller measures to get the virus pushed down.

Sweden actually had some pretty favorable demographics, which made their early bad results (primarily in senior facilities) quite notable. But once they got past that early screw up, they figured out what to do and did it. I'm skeptical that their current good situation has anything to do with herd immunity (I think it was just sufficient SD as with the other Euro countries), but we'll only know that for sure in retrospect.

Seems like the USA problem is that (since it is a big country) we never did enough to get the virus down everywhere. So we seem to be stuck at roughly 1,000 deaths a day coming from an evolving number of places -- NY and NJ come down, but then are replaced by SoCal, AZ, TX and FL. Then a new bunch of places get hot -- GA, TN, MS. Rinse and repeat.

We are stuck at about 50% of our April peak (for daily deaths). In contrast, all of our first world peers are down 90-95% from their peaks.

as we're all educationally guessing...
sweden if not exhibit a is one of many, imo, that suggest a herd immunity profile being part or a very large part of slowing spread. no way of knowing for sure if it's lasting, and if then a second time around (reinfection) yields better results.. but again guesswork and past science suggests a good chance it will.

and then in the u.s.... as you note, such a large country... unless we were shutting down state borders across the country, to me it was likely other places needed to get hit. not saying it had to be the numbers we're at, don't know that. the optimistic view from there is we may be relatively close to burning through the majority of the country. at least for this round. some were early, some were relatively flat throughout, some low early and then popped... if we can get to 500 deaths per day asap that would be a win. and might be on par-ish with influenza/pneumonia deaths combo.
getting a little ahead myself, from there measures in toto of sd, masks, immunity population might be able to push it down substantially from there.

potential "natural immunity" (past coronaviruses or t-cells) aiding herd immunity that seemed plausible to me on here starting in may/early june, continues to get more play and research backing the possibility now several months later.

europe's 1st world final story may not be written yet. they weren't able to hold several hundred cases without allowing it to bloom many fold from that, but after a bump in their death tolls shortly, my expectation is they are shocked a little into controlling it with both measures and (potentially) some herd immunity helping.

one of sweden's tegnell's main theories was we're all going to end up in the same place. as they are a healthier population, his "same place" should in theory be better than some other places. which may mean the u.s. and some other first worlds have a ways to go. hopefully not too far.

You are assuming Sweden and the USA or any other comp, has the same virus strain circulating the population. I don’t “believe” that to be the case.

i'm going by rate of change, generally speaking. and timing. as well as health profile. different strains' fatality would be another that worked on a final number, sure.

[MDlaxfan76]

wgdsr, you say that you believe there's herd immunity at work in Sweden...do you have data on community incidence that supports that belief?

Or is it just wishful thinking?

To get to herd immunity, assuming all other factors held constant, shouldn't there be many, many more deaths there? Or are you suggesting that herd immunity develops with far fewer people getting seriously sick somehow? how?

...guy who deer hunts my property was just here getting an updated signature for permits, he has a relative in Sweden who recently was hospitalized, on ventilator, but now home...survived but pretty wrecked at present.

He noted that elementary school kids are in-person now, high school kids entirely online...they're worried about the spread from the elementary school kids, but are taking a chance...fingers crossed.

[ggait]

wgdsr, you say that you believe there's herd immunity at work in Sweden...do you have data on community incidence that supports that belief?

Or is it just wishful thinking?

New cases yesterday:

Sweden 160
Denmark 83
Norway 59
Finland 43

All pretty low. Suggests to me that all these fairly similar countries are currently doing pretty much the same thing and currently getting pretty much the same results.

Nobody in Denmark, Norway or Finland is claiming herd immunity. So color me very skeptical that Sweden has that going on. But a few are claiming that.

[ggait]

VT vs NC State football game cancelled. 27 NC State athletes have come down with rona.

NC State (which was already fully online for classes) is now closing all of its dorms and sending the kids home.

[CU77]

Sweden, meanwhile, is not even close to achieving herd immunity. In an interview with the Observer newspaper in London this month, Anders Tegnell, an epidemiologist involved in managing Sweden’s pandemic response, claimed that up to 30% of the country’s population could be immune.

But others say that’s a wildly optimistic estimate, and, as Tegnell himself acknowledged, “it’s very difficult to draw a good sample from the population, because, obviously, the level of immunity differs enormously between different age groups between different parts of Stockholm and so on.”

It’s likely even that 30% level is a long way off from achieving the goal. This month, the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine published a paper titled “Sweden’s prized herd immunity is nowhere in sight.” Epidemiologists estimate that at least 70% of the population attaining immunity is necessary to achieve herd immunity.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/uk-ab ... 2020-08-26

[Typical Lax Dad]

wgdsr, you say that you believe there's herd immunity at work in Sweden...do you have data on community incidence that supports that belief?

Or is it just wishful thinking?

New cases yesterday:

Sweden 160
Denmark 83
Norway 59
Finland 43

All pretty low. Suggests to me that all these fairly similar countries are currently doing pretty much the same thing and currently getting pretty much the same results.

Nobody in Denmark, Norway or Finland is claiming herd immunity. So color me very skeptical that Sweden has that going on. But a few are claiming that.

Genetic Mutation In Sweden

We still have a lot to learn about this virus. We are 9 months in.

[CU77]

Local news in the Dallas area:

Almost 50 North Texans Drank Bleach This Month, Poison Center Warns ‘Stop, It Won’t Cure COVID’

https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2020/08/24/alm ... ure-covid/

[JoeMauer89]

VT vs NC State football game cancelled. 27 NC State athletes have come down with rona.

The game was moved to 9/26, NOT cancelled. Tell the whole story when you post things like this.



Go Twins!

JoeMauer89!

[ggait]

VT vs NC State football game cancelled. 27 NC State athletes have come down with rona.

The game was moved to 9/26, NOT cancelled. Tell the whole story when you post things like this.



Go Twins!

JoeMauer89!

Joe -- you probably missed that NC State (which was already 100% online classes) today announced that it is closing its campus, closing all of its dorms, and sending the students home.

TBD if NC State re-opens its campus this fall. TBD if NC State plays even one football game.

But I wouldn't bet on either of those right now.

[JoeMauer89]

VT vs NC State football game cancelled. 27 NC State athletes have come down with rona.

The game was moved to 9/26, NOT cancelled. Tell the whole story when you post things like this.



Go Twins!

JoeMauer89!

Joe -- you probably missed that NC State (which was already 100% online classes) today announced that it is closing its campus, closing all of its dorms, and sending the students home.

TBD if NC State re-opens its campus this fall. TBD if NC State plays even one football game.

But I wouldn't bet on either of those right now.

Those all still might happen. But sending students home doesn't mean their season is cancelled. The athletes are still there as far as I have heard. My point is they did the smart thing in postponing the opener two weeks and give themselves more time. I'll believe the season is in trouble when the school comes out and says such. It's going to take more than one team pulling out for the ACC to not play. The Big Ten and The Pac-10 acted too quickly and just look at all the criticism and negative attention they are receiving. The solution to everything is not to cancel immediately, its to smartly and safely figure out the best path forward, which for now is playing the season. That was the point I was trying to put across. And again the WORST thing they could have done was send kids home, that puts their parents/relatives/close companions at greater risk.

Go Twins!
JoeMauer89!

[Typical Lax Dad]

VT vs NC State football game cancelled. 27 NC State athletes have come down with rona.

The game was moved to 9/26, NOT cancelled. Tell the whole story when you post things like this.



Go Twins!

JoeMauer89!

Joe -- you probably missed that NC State (which was already 100% online classes) today announced that it is closing its campus, closing all of its dorms, and sending the students home.

TBD if NC State re-opens its campus this fall. TBD if NC State plays even one football game.

But I wouldn't bet on either of those right now.

Those all still might happen. But sending students home doesn't mean their season is cancelled. The athletes are still there as far as I have heard. My point is they did the smart thing in postponing the opener two weeks and give themselves more time. I'll believe the season is in trouble when the school comes out and says such. It's going to take more than one team pulling out for the ACC to not play. The Big Ten and The Pac-10 acted too quickly and just look at all the criticism and negative attention they are receiving. The solution to everything is not to cancel immediately, its to smartly and safely figure out the best path forward, which for now is playing the season. That was the point I was trying to put across. And again the WORST thing they could have done was send kids home, that puts their parents/relatives/close companions at greater risk.

Go Twins!
JoeMauer89!

The healthcare and infectious disease people need to hang out on lacrosse boards more often.

[Peter Brown]

Breaking: Abbott just announced they have been given emergency use authorization for a rapid antigen test. They say: 15 minutes. 5 dollars. Greater than 95% sensitivity and no machine or lab required, adding they have the ability to make 50 million tests per month by October.

[Cooter]

https://summit.news/2020/08/24/uk-gover ... bal-scale/

[DocBarrister]

https://summit.news/2020/08/24/uk-gover ... bal-scale/

The epidemiologist in that article advised the UK government on its response to the novel coronavirus.

You do know that the UK has had one of the most disastrous responses to Covid-19, with a death per capita rate that is among the highest in the world?

Really shouldn’t post such garbage.

DocBarrister

[wgdsr]

wgdsr, you say that you believe there's herd immunity at work in Sweden...do you have data on community incidence that supports that belief?

Or is it just wishful thinking?

To get to herd immunity, assuming all other factors held constant, shouldn't there be many, many more deaths there? Or are you suggesting that herd immunity develops with far fewer people getting seriously sick somehow? how?

...guy who deer hunts my property was just here getting an updated signature for permits, he has a relative in Sweden who recently was hospitalized, on ventilator, but now home...survived but pretty wrecked at present.

He noted that elementary school kids are in-person now, high school kids entirely online...they're worried about the spread from the elementary school kids, but are taking a chance...fingers crossed.

yes, i believe there's a very good chance herd immunity is at work in sweden (said probable in may there) and many other places.

and yes, that would then have to mean the number of infected/exposed is either much higher than imagined, or that when you throw on social distancing, masks, etc. with some herd the number is then different than people think. or both.

[njbill]

NC State has “paused” all athletic activities. I assume that means no practices, no meetings, no training. Certainly no games.

All students in on-campus housing have been ordered to vacate that housing. No exceptions for athletes. I presume this means athletes in off-campus housing can stay in that housing, but it sounds like they can’t practice or train at least in university facilities.

No indication on how long this “pause” will be in effect. Obviously, those in charge simply don’t know yet.

[JoeMauer89]

NC State has “paused” all athletic activities. I assume that means no practices, no meetings, no training. Certainly no games.

All students in on-campus housing have been ordered to vacate that housing. No exceptions for athletes. I presume this means athletes in off-campus housing can stay in that housing, but it sounds like they can’t practice or train at least in university facilities.

No indication on how long this “pause” will be in effect. Obviously, those in charge simply don’t know yet.

njbill,
Thanks for the clarification. You put across the point I was trying to make, no decision has been made, and really one does not need to be made right now.

Typical Lax Dad,
You made me laugh,
I am far from either, just your typical average "joe"

Go Twins!
JoeMauer89!

[CU77]

yes, i believe there's a very good chance herd immunity is at work in sweden (said probable in may there) and many other places.

What do you base this belief on?

[jhu72]

VT vs NC State football game cancelled. 27 NC State athletes have come down with rona.

The game was moved to 9/26, NOT cancelled. Tell the whole story when you post things like this.



Go Twins!

JoeMauer89!

… the story I saw only said the game was cancelled, not moved.

[jhu72]

Local news in the Dallas area:

Almost 50 North Texans Drank Bleach This Month, Poison Center Warns ‘Stop, It Won’t Cure COVID’

https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2020/08/24/alm ... ure-covid/

… I can't imagine where people got the idea this was a good idea. Some people are too stupid to live.