The Nation's Financial Condition

[RedFromMI]

This is major news, and I realize that many here have a permanent hatred of Trump, but I would caution you to ignore these statistics at your peril. Voters are way smarter than what you probably think, or want them to be. (I have a theory on politics: we always get what we deserve and what we want).

A study by former Census Bureau researchers and now statisticians at Sentier Research has found gigantic income gains for the middle class under Trump. The median or average-income family has seen a gain of $5,003 since Trump came into office. Median family income is now (August 2019) $65,976, up from about $61,000 when he entered office (January 2017). Under George W. Bush, the household income gains were a little over $400 in eight years, and under Barack Obama the gains were $1,043. That was in eight years for each. Under Trump, in less than three years, the extra income is about three times larger.

Where is a source for this being "middle class" income only? Don't believe it.

From what I am able to gather after a 2 minute search - this survey data is from a very small size, and sampling error makes it bounce up and down month after month. So to rely on it for a real number without some sort of averaging is pretty dangerous. It also makes the differential numbers reported for the Bush and Obama administrations suspect.

[Peter Brown]

This is major news, and I realize that many here have a permanent hatred of Trump, but I would caution you to ignore these statistics at your peril. Voters are way smarter than what you probably think, or want them to be. (I have a theory on politics: we always get what we deserve and what we want).

A study by former Census Bureau researchers and now statisticians at Sentier Research has found gigantic income gains for the middle class under Trump. The median or average-income family has seen a gain of $5,003 since Trump came into office. Median family income is now (August 2019) $65,976, up from about $61,000 when he entered office (January 2017). Under George W. Bush, the household income gains were a little over $400 in eight years, and under Barack Obama the gains were $1,043. That was in eight years for each. Under Trump, in less than three years, the extra income is about three times larger.

Where is a source for this being "middle class" income only? Don't believe it.

From what I am able to gather after a 2 minute search - this survey data is from a very small size, and sampling error makes it bounce up and down month after month. So to rely on it for a real number without some sort of averaging is pretty dangerous. It also makes the differential numbers reported for the Bush and Obama administrations suspect.

Maybe you are correct, but I doubt it. Sentier is run by ex-Census Bureau employees...ie, likely not Trumpers. I can say from my own experience, hourly wages at a company where I have control have risen 25% on average at each skilled and 20% at each unskilled position in the last 3 years. Entry level unskilled wages are now pushing $15/hour, from $12 only three years ago.

I think it would have happened even without Trump, but because he's the guy in the seat, he gets the credit.

[CU88]

Looking at jobs and deficits

Reagan: 15M jobs
$79B to $159B

Bush: 2M jobs
$153B to $255B

Clinton: 23M jobs
$255B to $128B surplus

Bush 1.5M jobs
$128B surplus to $1T debt

Obama 12M jobs
1.16T to $585B

Trump 5M jobs
$585B to $1.1T

[foreverlax]

Interesting findings in this report...

Why break did the income in to these categories...

Under $5,000
 $5,000 to $7,499
 $7,500 to $9,999
 $10,000 to $12,499
 $12,500 to $14,999
 $15,000 to $19,999
 $20,000 to $24,999
 $25,000 to $29,999
 $30,000 to $34,999
 $35,000 to $39,999
 $40,000 to $49,999
 $50,000 to $59,999
 $60,000 to $74,999
 $75,000 to $99,999
 $100,000 to $149,999
 $150,000 and over

Wouldn't have made more sense to make the breaks in to tax rates, deciles or quartiles?

I want to see where the growth of the average came from...the $15 per hour folks or the 1%.

[jhu72]

This was my original point. We both know where the growth came from.

[a fan]

Mostly from the tax cut which is just pulling forward future income by deferring future expenses.

I think it was more from pumping $3Trillion and pumping it through the economy.....and borrowing every cent.

But yep, we're on the same page. This entire economy is built on loans.

And P Brown will blame the President who has to pay off those loans rather then Trump for taking out unsustainable loans, and then dropping the bottom out of taxes to make sure we don't have the money to pay for those loans.

Trump has P Brown and his fellow voters pegged. If I was Trump, i'd end taxes altogether. Do you think Pete B. would figure out that that's bad? Or would he cheer at the "extra money" he and his company gets?

(having a little fun to drive home the point, Pete )

[CU88]

This is major news, and I realize that many here have a permanent hatred of Trump, but I would caution you to ignore these statistics at your peril. Voters are way smarter than what you probably think, or want them to be. (I have a theory on politics: we always get what we deserve and what we want).

A study by former Census Bureau researchers and now statisticians at Sentier Research has found gigantic income gains for the middle class under Trump. The median or average-income family has seen a gain of $5,003 since Trump came into office. Median family income is now (August 2019) $65,976, up from about $61,000 when he entered office (January 2017). Under George W. Bush, the household income gains were a little over $400 in eight years, and under Barack Obama the gains were $1,043. That was in eight years for each. Under Trump, in less than three years, the extra income is about three times larger.

https://www.usdebtclock.org/

[RedFromMI]

Not exactly sure where to put this, but another bombshell about the Boeing 737 MAX:

Boeing Pilot for 737 MAX Said He Lied to F.A.A., Messages Show

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/18/busi ... e=Homepage

Pilot referred to here is the chief test pilot for the MAX project.

[holmes435]

Yep, that's basically like me increasing my family's annual income by $5000 by pulling out a personal loan from my bank. And even with the unfunded tax cuts, median income growth is actually slowing.

Also, if you wanna cherry pick data, the median income under Obama increased by like $9k in his last 3 years from '13-'16.

[SCLaxAttack]

So PB starts by telling you to ignore the statistics he found at your own peril, and what do the succeeding posters do? Try to punch holes in them or dismiss them altogether.

I’ve got to tell you FLP posters here, you’re doing just what Trump wants you to do - tell his base and the undecided that they’re just plain dumb not to see how stupid they are compared to you. You’re going to end up in the same place as last time. All the polls will miss a good percentage of the Trump vote because those who will vote for Trump won’t disclose their true intention because they don’t want the opinion backlash the die-hard pro-Trumpers get.

[a fan]

So PB starts by telling you to ignore the statistics he found at your own peril, and what do the succeeding posters do? Try to punch holes in them or dismiss them altogether.

I’ve got to tell you FLP posters here, you’re doing just what Trump wants you to do - tell his base and the undecided that they’re just plain dumb not to see how stupid they are compared to you. You’re going to end up in the same place as last time. All the polls will miss a good percentage of the Trump vote because those who will vote for Trump won’t disclose their true intention because they don’t want the opinion backlash the die-hard pro-Trumpers get.

I don't think you understand.

You and PB are talking about who will win or lose an election.

The rest of us are talking about economic reality. Yep, things are fine now. And again, I can detail the ways in which Trump has stuffed money in my pockets. I'm sure many others here can do the same. So we're supposed to shut up and take the money.....consequences be damned, is that it?

We'll talk about who the real winners and losers are when the bill for all this borrowing and spending arrives.

I promise you the 1%, which includes many people posting here, will be just fine.

TrumpNation? I'm not optimistic for how they will do. Trump's lying and deceit has consequences.

1.8% GDP for next quarter? After all those tax cuts and borrowed spending? If you don't see what's headed our way, I'm not sure what else to say....

[jhu72]

So PB starts by telling you to ignore the statistics he found at your own peril, and what do the succeeding posters do? Try to punch holes in them or dismiss them altogether.

I’ve got to tell you FLP posters here, you’re doing just what Trump wants you to do - tell his base and the undecided that they’re just plain dumb not to see how stupid they are compared to you. You’re going to end up in the same place as last time. All the polls will miss a good percentage of the Trump vote because those who will vote for Trump won’t disclose their true intention because they don’t want the opinion backlash the die-hard pro-Trumpers get.

If that's how they decide who to vote for - let them. I''ll just have to console myself with the extra bucks in tax savings I am not paying, while society goes to hell.

Last Laugh.gif (160.88 KiB) Viewed 1084 times

[Peter Brown]

Mostly from the tax cut which is just pulling forward future income by deferring future expenses.

I think it was more from pumping $3Trillion and pumping it through the economy.....and borrowing every cent.

But yep, we're on the same page. This entire economy is built on loans.

And P Brown will blame the President who has to pay off those loans rather then Trump for taking out unsustainable loans, and then dropping the bottom out of taxes to make sure we don't have the money to pay for those loans.

Trump has P Brown and his fellow voters pegged. If I was Trump, i'd end taxes altogether. Do you think Pete B. would figure out that that's bad? Or would he cheer at the "extra money" he and his company gets?

(having a little fun to drive home the point, Pete )

The Internet is a rough place to come to when discussing nuance...lol.

Tonight I am taking a colleague to a bar because he has shown some troubling developments recently and I want to talk with him about him, his life, what is really going on...I could just as easily sent him an email and conveyed what I want to say, but conversations like this are best in person, where we can parry back and forth and hopefully improve (both of us!). I would like to invite every poster here someday to some bar in the center of America, maybe Nebraska, and hash out these issues over free hooch from a fan. It would certainly be far easier than this.

I am not a Trumper. Did not vote for him. Between him and Joe Biden, I choose Joe, whom I absolutely love. But, and this is I hope common sense to readers here (especially lacrosse aficionados, whom I hold in high regard - incidentally, Texas lacrosse is en fuego!), everyone has some good in them. Even Trump has done some good that needs to be recognized; I am not sure why it is heresy to recognize that his economy is literally the best we have seen in America in some time. I don't get the 100% or nothing mentality that we seem to have fallen prey to.

I am no fan of Elizabeth Warren. If she wins the D nomination, I will vote for Trump. And if she beats him (which is unlikely imo), I will recognize her when she does good things, which she surely will do. She will not be all bad. Nor is Trump.

[Peter Brown]

So PB starts by telling you to ignore the statistics he found at your own peril, and what do the succeeding posters do? Try to punch holes in them or dismiss them altogether.

I’ve got to tell you FLP posters here, you’re doing just what Trump wants you to do - tell his base and the undecided that they’re just plain dumb not to see how stupid they are compared to you. You’re going to end up in the same place as last time. All the polls will miss a good percentage of the Trump vote because those who will vote for Trump won’t disclose their true intention because they don’t want the opinion backlash the die-hard pro-Trumpers get.

You are squarely over the target here, SCLaxattack. When we tell anyone they are idiots, it should surprise no one to learn that those people you mock will dislike you a great deal.

[a fan]

Tonight I am taking a colleague to a bar because he has shown some troubling developments recently and I want to talk with him about him, his life, what is really going on...I could just as easily sent him an email and conveyed what I want to say, but conversations like this are best in person, where we can parry back and forth and hopefully improve (both of us!). I would like to invite every poster here someday to some bar in the center of America, maybe Nebraska, and hash out these issues over free hooch from a fan. It would certainly be far easier than this.

You are 100% right, and we actually had a meetup about 15 years ago. It was great.

None of us can type fast enough, and nuance and tone get lost, no question.

But still, people keep coming back because of how much learning there is to do from so many people with entirely different life experiences. it's a pretty remarkable place. Doubly so because of our shared love of lacrosse.....

I am not sure why it is heresy to recognize that his economy is literally the best we have seen in America in some time. I don't get the 100% or nothing mentality that we seem to have fallen prey t

I'll say this one last time: the reason we're throwing stones is that this economy is BORROWED. We borrowed Trillions to have success NOW.

We're worried about what happens when the bill arrives. As you put it, I'm not sure why it's heresy to bring this up.

And Dems signed off on all this borrowed spending. So Trump isn't alone on that.....although not a single Dem voted for the tax cuts. That's all on the Republicans.

[a fan]

You are squarely over the target here, SCLaxattack. When we tell anyone they are idiots, it should surprise no one to learn that those people you mock will dislike you a great deal.

I didn't use the word idiot, but what would you call an adult who can't tell the difference between a loan and a raise?

[Peter Brown]

You are squarely over the target here, SCLaxattack. When we tell anyone they are idiots, it should surprise no one to learn that those people you mock will dislike you a great deal.

I didn't use the word idiot, but what would you call an adult who can't tell the difference between a loan and a raise?

I wouldn't "call" them anything...I would sit down with them and have a discussion, hopefully accurately conveying what I perceive to be correct. And I'd listen to them to see if I was missing something, which 9 times out of 10 I am missing the other angle.

[a fan]

I would sit down with them and have a discussion, hopefully accurately conveying what I perceive to be correct. And I'd listen to them to see if I was missing something, which 9 times out of 10 I am missing the other angle.

I do. When I have a chance. Pretty hard to do that with a hundred million people, though.

Your experience is different. I'm sure you understand that. About 3/4th of the Trump fans I've met in person are the ones calling other's idiots. You're seeing the opposite.

I am correct, btw. A loan is not the same thing as a raise. If it was, I'd advocate that we eliminate all taxes and simply borrow what our country needs to keep the lights on.

Loans need to be responsibly made. And we have to repay them. Can we agree on that?

[Farfromgeneva]

Had a meeting and then lunch in cullman AL today. Think I have no idea what rural, or middle America is all about?

[ardilla secreta]

Cullman, Alabama. Fred Ziffel is from near to there.