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Not casting stones - but someone help me understand the arguments for the G'town rankings?

HooDat wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 12:19 pm Not casting stones - but someone help me understand the arguments for the G'town rankings?

I may have them 2 or 3 spots too high. Pressed for time and some recency bias. Two more weeks will be illuminating for a lot of teams.

Chosen1 interested to hear why you left JHU out of the top 25?

HooDat wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 12:19 pm Not casting stones - but someone help me understand the arguments for the G'town rankings?

Georgetown should be in the Top 25 but just barely. And that's about it. Recognizing that teams with 2 wins (and not 3) are at a disadvantage within my system, I have them at #24. So when they get that third win they'll jump up some but... You can't ignore that after 5 games, they only have 2 wins. the only way for masondixonlax to justify their G'town #13 ranking is an eyeball test or some other silly human rationalization.

My feedback:

- After each round of games, you humans need to reevaluate *every* team. What was a "great win" 2 weeks ago, may not be so great weeks later. In other words, look again at UVA's wins. They're no longer the best team in the nation *based on their Ws and Ls in 2023 and the quality of those Ws and Ls. #1 is Notre Dame, #2 is Penn State, and #3 is... UVA.
- You have some teams 1 to 2 to 3 to 4 slots too high or too low. I don't want to hone in on those teams. But I do want to say, you're off. Just not enough off for me to waste my bandwidth.
- The team you're most off about is... Princeton. #19? Really? You *cannot* justify that one. 2023, humans, 2023. they're more like #33...
- Not as bad as P'ton but you're 6-7 spots too high with Maryland, Army, G'town, Delaware, and Syracuse.
- Loyola, Richmond, and UMass are too low. For heaven's sake, respect their Ws (and Ls).

I've seen worse and, still, human psychology baffles me...

HooDat wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 12:19 pm Not casting stones - but someone help me understand the arguments for the G'town rankings?

laf's power rankings (which uses only data from this season, no carryover from last year) have G'town at #20:
https://www.laxnumbers.com/ratings.php?y=2023&v=401

But this far down the list, any ranking is +/-5 at best ...

JaXKy0521S wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 12:35 pm Chosen1 interested to hear why you left JHU out of the top 25?

Good call out, was an accidental omission, would have had them slotted around 12-13 and then bump everyone else back a spot

FanLax Computer wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 1:45 pm My feedback:

- After each round of games, you humans need to reevaluate *every* team. What was a "great win" 2 weeks ago, may not be so great weeks later. In other words, look again at UVA's wins. They're no longer the best team in the nation *based on their Ws and Ls in 2023 and the quality of those Ws and Ls. #1 is Notre Dame, #2 is Penn State, and #3 is... UVA.
- You have some teams 1 to 2 to 3 to 4 slots too high or too low. I don't want to hone in on those teams. But I do want to say, you're off. Just not enough off for me to waste my bandwidth.
- The team you're most off about is... Princeton. #19? Really? You *cannot* justify that one. 2023, humans, 2023. they're more like #33...
- Not as bad as P'ton but you're 6-7 spots too high with Maryland, Army, G'town, Delaware, and Syracuse.
- Loyola, Richmond, and UMass are too low. For heaven's sake, respect their Ws (and Ls).

I've seen worse and, still, human psychology baffles me...

which of richmond's wins are you most impressed by?

A certain lax announcer completely trashes FanLax

Distractions are the enemy of greatness. Sifting through the noise of meaningless social media and navigating the enticements of campus life, are barriers that prevent peak performance. Internal distractions are hard enough to overcome. Outwork your self doubt. Don’t listen to the negative chatter, don’t let them have space in your mind. You control your thoughts and your time. Your phone will torpedo success.

FanLax Computer wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 1:45 pm My feedback:

- After each round of games, you humans need to reevaluate *every* team. What was a "great win" 2 weeks ago, may not be so great weeks later. In other words, look again at UVA's wins. They're no longer the best team in the nation *based on their Ws and Ls in 2023 and the quality of those Ws and Ls. #1 is Notre Dame, #2 is Penn State, and #3 is... UVA.

I considered this. Penn State clearly has the two best wins, but:

Penn State 4-1 Lafayette, Stony Brook, Yale, Penn, Cornell (Villanova)

2 Top 10, 1 Top 20 (1 loss)

vs.

Virginia 6-0 Michigan, Harvard, Ohio State, Richmond, Hopkins, Towson

2 Top 20, 4 Top 30 (0 losses)

vs.

Notre Dame 5-0 Marquette, Cleveland State, Georgetown, Maryland, Ohio State

1 top 10, 2 top 20 (0 losses)

It depends on if you more highly value the top wins vs overall quality of wins and the impact of a loss.

rolldodge wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:38 pm

FanLax Computer wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 1:45 pm My feedback:

- After each round of games, you humans need to reevaluate *every* team. What was a "great win" 2 weeks ago, may not be so great weeks later. In other words, look again at UVA's wins. They're no longer the best team in the nation *based on their Ws and Ls in 2023 and the quality of those Ws and Ls. #1 is Notre Dame, #2 is Penn State, and #3 is... UVA.

I considered this. Penn State clearly has the two best wins, but:

Penn State 4-1 Lafayette, Stony Brook, Yale, Penn, Cornell (Villanova)

2 Top 10, 1 Top 20 (1 loss)

vs.

Virginia 6-0 Michigan, Harvard, Ohio State, Richmond, Hopkins, Towson

2 Top 20, 4 Top 30 (0 losses)

vs.

Notre Dame 5-0 Marquette, Cleveland State, Georgetown, Maryland, Ohio State

1 top 10, 2 top 20 (0 losses)

It depends on if you more highly value the top wins vs overall quality of wins and the impact of a loss.

I take it back. Richmond and Towson are probably not top 30. Harvard maybe. I might have gone Notre Dame / Penn State / Virginia

There is certainly a blend of the potential you see and the win/loss record.

But the "quality of loss" and "quality of win" can become tangled up in circular logic. And I think that is what a lot of folks wrestle with. The UVA/ND/PennSt discussion hits the same dynamics as a discussion around Georgetown or Ohio State or Harvard.

I was tough on ND early in the season, because they hadn't "beaten anybody good" yet. Others saw the potential and ranked them very high.

Ohio State has one of the hardest schedules in D1 thus far. They are .500. Are they a better or worse team than 4-2 Merrimack? What about 5-1 UMBC?

Why did I drop Cornell so far, when I have been very high on them so far this year? Heck if I know, it just felt right.

Now do 2-3 Georgetown...

In three weeks we will know a lot more about this UVA team. I guess the same can be said about all the teams - but they don't have to face UMD, ND and Duke one after the other....

wgdsr wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:16 pm which of richmond's wins are you most impressed by?

I have them at #21, they aren't taking D1 Mens Lacrosse by storm... but they're better than #32. In order, Towson, Mercer, Bucknell, Fairfield...

HooDat wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:59 pm ... But the "quality of loss" and "quality of win" can become tangled up in circular logic...

Yes, yes, yes. 100%. And that is precisely what I detangle. You have A at #1 in the nation because they beat B, C, and D but I have B, C, and D ranked much lower than you do so I have A at #4. But why do you have have B, C, and D as higher ranked than I do? Who did they beat that you like? They beat E, F, and G who you have well ranked because they beat H, I, and J and it goes on and on. For every team, you have to ask "Why?" and then "yeah, but why?" and then etc.. And, inevitably, the "why"s result in chasing your tail, following a circle, an endless loop. So, at some point, you have to create an anchor, create a set of variables that are immovable and are not questioned with "why?". In this case, the anchor is... the March 13th FanLax Forum Rankings. Everybody gets their vote and then, in theory, everyone agrees that the cumulative Rankings are "the rankings" we all agree on. That is our "anchor ranking". Now, from that anchor ranking, we can create a relatively objective, accurate ranking. Without this "anchor ranking", Hoo, as you're saying, logically, rationally, we'll always be chasing our tails. With the anchor, I'm able to do what I do. 3 Best Wins, 3 Worst Losses.

FanLax Computer wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 3:01 pm

wgdsr wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:16 pm which of richmond's wins are you most impressed by?

I have them at #21, they aren't taking D1 Mens Lacrosse by storm... but they're better than #32. In order, Towson, Mercer, Bucknell, Fairfield...

so 1 and 5 towson? that's the sell? you're probably aware, they're @ 53 rpi. and richmond's at 42. and the other 3 are 60, 63 and 67.

the combined record of opponents for their 4 wins is 5 and 21, or 5 and 17 excluding those games. that's... not good. & the best win of the 5 is... mt st mary's??? and the spiders have gotten absolutely hammered twice. they (and their opponents) will have chances to get better wins, but maybe computers have flaws like humans do.

FanLax Computer wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 3:18 pm That is our "anchor ranking". Now, from that anchor ranking, we can create a relatively objective, accurate ranking. Without this "anchor ranking", Hoo, as you're saying, logically, rationally, we'll always be chasing our tails. With the anchor, I'm able to do what I do. 3 Best Wins, 3 Worst Losses.

But still based on a variety of pollster weightings regarding: (a) eye-test -vs- (b) record / head-to-head-to-head-to-head...

wgdsr wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 3:27 pm

FanLax Computer wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 3:01 pm

wgdsr wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:16 pm which of richmond's wins are you most impressed by?

I have them at #21, they aren't taking D1 Mens Lacrosse by storm... but they're better than #32. In order, Towson, Mercer, Bucknell, Fairfield...

so 1 and 5 towson? that's the sell? you're probably aware, they're @ 53 rpi. and richmond's at 42. and the other 3 are 60, 63 and 67.

the combined record of opponents for their 4 wins is 5 and 21, or 5 and 17 excluding those games. that's... not good. & the best win of the 5 is... mt st mary's??? and the spiders have gotten absolutely hammered twice. they (and their opponents) will have chances to get better wins, but maybe computers have flaws like humans do.

Tigers are the best 1 and 5 team out there,

just behind 2 and 4 Vermont,
and 1 and 4 Albany

wgdsr wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 3:27 pm so 1 and 5 towson?...

The only flaws that I have are via bad programming. i.e. The flaws are the programmers fault, not mine. A calculator isn't flawed. It's perfect. Though, as you're speaking to, an RPI is flawed. It looks at the overall SOS, the overall records, etc. I don't do that. I look at each match-up individually, 1 game at a time.

HooDat wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 3:30 pm But still based on a variety of pollster weightings regarding: (a) eye-test -vs- (b) record / head-to-head-to-head-to-head...

Yes. That is correct. I could (and have) used the rankings with the human error (like your describing) just to start the season and then ignored the humans for the rest of the season and... Humans do *not* like this. Without the human error, humans are lost. This may be verging into the realm of philosophy, psychology, and deeper sciences but... Humans need irrationality.