LaxPower Back-Up Stick

Polls due at midnight. I have submissions from:

calourie
Drcthru
DU-fan
HopFan16
ICGrad
jersey shore lax
laxpere
molo
Nelaxtalent
SpiritInTheStick
The Orfling
Wheels

Its not the spelling its the keying

I find it interesting that we ranked Penn St. #1 yet they do not seem to have a large presence on fanlax. their team page is still on page 1 with 10 posts while Brown is on page 4, Hop on 177 even Utah has 17 posts.

Please tell me admin's submission (same as last week, with UMass at #7) did not count towards the forum aggregate.

Until most teams play 3 games, you get the preseason rankings. post-3 games, you get the computer rankings...

jersey shore lax wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:40 pm I find it interesting that we ranked Penn St. #1 yet they do not seem to have a large presence on fanlax. their team page is still on page 1 with 10 posts while Brown is on page 4, Hop on 177 even Utah has 17 posts.

I think this is partly because people discuss PSU within the B1G 2020 thread. And... Not so many PSU fans roaming our halls. Or at least not so many fans that type as well as read.

admin wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:01 pm Until most teams play 3 games, you get the preseason rankings. post-3 games, you get the computer rankings...

They lost by 100

It was crazy to put them #7 in the first place

Admin got his own Preseason ranking wrong. I'm going to amend it. I'm also curious how much one Poll-ers picks effect the Forum Polls.

And... Updated. Thanks, Hopfan.

Matnum PI wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:11 pm I'm also curious how much one Poll-ers picks effect the Forum Polls.

JHU and Denver switched spots. Rutgers and Loyola switched spots. Towson drops and UMass drops a lot. One poll-ers vote had more of an effect than I expected. Worth considering as we move forward...

Matnum PI wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:29 pm

Matnum PI wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:11 pm I'm also curious how much one Poll-ers picks effect the Forum Polls.

JHU and Denver switched spots. Rutgers and Loyola switched spots. Towson drops and UMass drops a lot. One poll-ers vote had more of an effect than I expected. Worth considering as we move forward...

Looks to me 1 poll-er that not factoring actual 2020 games played significantly affects Duke, AF, High Point, UMass & Towson as their performance to-date significantly differs from their pre-season rankings. In short, if a poll is "off" by 10-12 spots from those that are "current" it is skewing the results. If that is going to continue until the Ivies have played 3 games . . .

NElaxtalent wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2020 2:20 pm Looks to me 1 poll-er that not factoring actual 2020 games played significantly affects Duke, AF, High Point, UMass & Towson as their performance to-date significantly differs from their pre-season rankings. In short, if a poll is "off" by 10-12 spots from those that are "current" it is skewing the results. If that is going to continue until the Ivies have played 3 games . . .

Looking at mine, I should have High Point and Air Force flipped, plus Duke a little lower, but I did drop Navy and UMass out of the Top 25.

More to ponder for this week and ranked teams need to take care of business. These games are likely to be more revealing so I'll be watching more closely.
JHU-Loyola
Denver-Duke
Army-Rutgers
UVA-Lehigh
Villanova-Yale
Albany-Cornell

NElaxtalent wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2020 2:20 pmLooks to me 1 poll-er that not factoring actual 2020 games played significantly affects Duke, AF, High Point, UMass & Towson as their performance to-date significantly differs from their pre-season rankings. In short, if a poll is "off" by 10-12 spots from those that are "current" it is skewing the results. If that is going to continue until the Ivies have played 3 games . . .

For next week's poll, if admin is still running the preseason poll, we simply won't count the admin poll. The Ivies, Notre Dame, etc. start later than others and, as you're speaking to, this may slow down the Computer Ranking being up to speed and... if admin is still running the preseason poll, we simply won't count the admin poll.

Matnum PI wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:03 pm

jersey shore lax wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:40 pm I find it interesting that we ranked Penn St. #1 yet they do not seem to have a large presence on fanlax. their team page is still on page 1 with 10 posts while Brown is on page 4, Hop on 177 even Utah has 17 posts.

I think this is partly because people discuss PSU within the B1G 2020 thread. And... Not so many PSU fans roaming our halls. Or at least not so many fans that type as well as read.

None of the old LaxPower Penn State posters made it over here.

laxpere wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2020 2:48 pmLooking at mine, I should have High Point and Air Force flipped, plus Duke a little lower, but I did drop Navy and UMass out of the Top 25.

Air Force beats Duke, loses to Denver. Based on Ws and Ls, Air Force should be 12.5. Based on "but they're Air Force...", they get 23.

laxpere
1 Penn St.
2 Yale
3 Maryland
4 Virginia
5 Notre Dame
6 Syracuse
7 North Carolina
8 Ohio St.
9 Johns Hopkins
10 Penn
11 Cornell
12 Denver
13 Duke
14 Army West Point
15 Rutgers
16 Villanova
17 High Point
18 Delaware
19 Richmond
20 Lehigh
21 Loyola Maryland
22 Towson
23 Air Force
24 Georgetown
25 Hobart

laxpere wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2020 2:48 pmLooking at mine, I should have High Point and Air Force flipped, plus Duke a little lower, but I did drop Navy and UMass out of the Top 25.

Air Force beats Duke, loses to Denver. Based on Ws and Ls, Air Force should be 12.5. Based on "but they're Air Force...", they get 23.

Admin & laxpere it's hard to see how AF is in neither top 20 off a road W at Duke & a loss to Top 10. Still harder to see how 0-2 HPU (w/ avg loss margin of 10 goals) is ranked at all.

admin is explainable. He still has the preseason rankings. which we've discussed, will amend next week, etc.
as for laxpere...

NElaxtalent wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2020 3:45 pm

laxpere wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2020 2:48 pmLooking at mine, I should have High Point and Air Force flipped, plus Duke a little lower, but I did drop Navy and UMass out of the Top 25.

Air Force beats Duke, loses to Denver. Based on Ws and Ls, Air Force should be 12.5. Based on "but they're Air Force...", they get 23.
Admin & laxpere it's hard to see how AF is in neither top 20 off a road W at Duke & a loss to Top 10. Still harder to see how 0-2 HPU (w/ avg loss margin of 10 goals) is ranked at all.

I agree with you and was lamenting not having Air Force and High Point flipped in last week's poll. An oversight.
On to this week! Two losses for High Point to good teams, but we'll really know more about them after they play Cornell on the 23rd.

The lion's share of teams haven't even played a game yet. Next week, everyone will have played a game, we'll have much more data, etc. Last week and this week...

There aren’t enough data points to be significant. The approach of using a time series of data sets is not going to capture the relative strengths of a set of teams though the longer the data set the less variance there will be. A coaching mantra is you have to have the athletes to play for a title. There are not 25 teams that can compete for a title. Judgments on teams use players lost, players added, coaches and personnel changes and so on.

HO last year had 2 star players. They lost one. Last year they were inconsistent so given various factors where do they get slotted.

When LaxFi and I did a quick review of polling on LaxPower we drew a number of conclusions. Negative bias was stronger in the voting that positive bias in general. Presumably to suppress one or another team’s ranking. Positive bias was muted. Then there were one or two voters over time who had various theories on how teams should be ranked that were not commonly shared.

The data set was small, the number of voters small. It will be interesting to me to see what leaps out at the end if they year.

One week and little data to inform a personal opinion that is based on a number of factors