The Nation's Financial Condition

[runrussellrun]

How do you apply for funds?

[Farfromgeneva]

Opinions are worthless, but...I think later this month we’re going to start to see earnings reflect a deceleration and evidence that the trade war is a major component. Morrison in q4 economic data but with Q3 books closed a week ago or so, earnings releases are going to come out soon with 10qs behind them.

We will see. I expect transportation and intermediate producers to be the biggest losers in it

[a fan]

In my neck of the woods, the recession started a 1 1/2 years ago.

Trade war is big part of that. The other is ridiculous cost of living increases. I laugh at those who calculate inflation. If you live in a major city....and so many Americans do.....the notion that your total costs went up by 1%-2.1% is straight up laughable.

Doubly so if you're in manufacturing, as I am.

Americans are running out of disposable income. And it's happening very fast.

[jhu72]

A good comparison of the economy, in chart form under Bush - Obama - Orange Duce

Once again giving proof of Orange Duce's lies about how much better the economy is under his "reign".

[youthathletics]

Trump doesn't care, and we don't anyone who works for him smart enough to formulate an actual Trade Plan. At this point, that's what's infuriating. This is not part of a larger plan. This is Trump trying to act tough. Pointless, and costing Americans billions of dollars. And no one in the Republican party has the stones to call him out for it.

Our trade plan is now tweet by tweet. Sooner or later, posters other than myself are going to start losing money over this nonsense. This is the first time I've been able to tell who is in the White House....in the sense that the person effects my business one way or another.

r's know that trade wars are easy to win!

China hits U.S. with tariffs on $75 billion worth of goods, reinstates auto levies, state media report.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... ia-report/

What say you all on the US/China development today?

[Trinity]

Is it real? Will farmers rush out and buy more land tomorrow?

[jhu72]

Trump would never pre-announce a deal that won't happen. Has never happened in the past. Let's wait for the ink to dry, if there is ever anything on paper.

[cradleandshoot]

Trump would never pre-announce a deal that won't happen. Has never happened in the past. Let's wait for the ink to dry, if there is ever anything on paper.

What a buzz kill... Is that an offensive thing to say? i don't want to offend the sensitive nature of a certain poster...

[CU88]

Trump doesn't care, and we don't anyone who works for him smart enough to formulate an actual Trade Plan. At this point, that's what's infuriating. This is not part of a larger plan. This is Trump trying to act tough. Pointless, and costing Americans billions of dollars. And no one in the Republican party has the stones to call him out for it.

Our trade plan is now tweet by tweet. Sooner or later, posters other than myself are going to start losing money over this nonsense. This is the first time I've been able to tell who is in the White House....in the sense that the person effects my business one way or another.

r's know that trade wars are easy to win!

China hits U.S. with tariffs on $75 billion worth of goods, reinstates auto levies, state media report.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... ia-report/

What say you all on the US/China development today?

A fan called this "result" months ago: no meaningful changes...

Let's hope that your hero drops the tariff BS and let's the world know that we are open for Fair Trade and business at usual.

That will help settle the world markets.

Then he should go back to the Dem's and produce a meaningful Infrastructure Spending Plan, with an identified funding source.

We all benefit!!!

[HooDat]

A fan called this "result" months ago: no meaningful changes..

yep, and after months of "negotiations" we end up in the same place or worse and Trump declares "victory"

[a fan]

Worse. Total up all the economic damage, farmers who have killed themselves, billions in tariffs absorbed by American consumers first.....and we're waaaaay behind.

CNBC financial talking heads were all over this, mocking the idea that anything substantial would come out of this.

When I have time, I'll dredge up all the claims made by posters who insisted that the short term pain would be worth the long term gain.

[Farfromgeneva]

Met with a CLO (collateralized loan obligation) asset manager (owns leveraged corporate loans) and a real estate (value add) owner of industrial properties (over 1.5mm sq ft) and while the CLO Mgr was optimistic, he’s light on Capital and the industrial CRE owner said in reply to my suggestion that we will start to see this impact things that he saw it starting early in the summer. There is some operations moving back to the US but most activity he’s losing in his warehouse and light industrial space is just going to another Asian country. Said many pulled forward their import needs 3-5mo ago and now aren’t doing much of anything.

I suspect the industrial guy is a little closer to street level reality but even the fact that markets aren’t cooperating for the CLO Mgt currently is also telling. One end can prop the other for a good while, if both weaken at the same time (financial markets and boot on the ground activities) then its trouble.

[youthathletics]

Met with a CLO (collateralized loan obligation) asset manager (owns leveraged corporate loans) and a real estate (value add) owner of industrial properties (over 1.5mm sq ft) and while the CLO Mgr was optimistic, he’s light on Capital and the industrial CRE owner said in reply to my suggestion that we will start to see this impact things that he saw it starting early in the summer. There is some operations moving back to the US but most activity he’s losing in his warehouse and light industrial space is just going to another Asian country. Said many pulled forward their import needs 3-5mo ago and now aren’t doing much of anything.

I suspect the industrial guy is a little closer to street level reality but even the fact that markets aren’t cooperating for the CLO Mgt currently is also telling. One end can prop the other for a good while, if both weaken at the same time (financial markets and boot on the ground activities) then its trouble.

Interesting, I also read somewhere that the GM strike is 'timely' in that that typically keep 30-45 day stock on vehicles, yet as soon as the strike fire up, they were sitting on 90+ day stock that was just sitting in the yard, as if they spooled up production to either (i) look busy or (ii) calculated union negotiations were on the horizon. I know this post is not comparing apples to apples, but seemed there may be a parallel to big C-Suite decision making.

[Peter Brown]

The market was up 500 points on Friday. Watch what happens Monday.

This deal is far larger and more substantial than what the pundits are claiming, and smart money knows it.

[youthathletics]

I am not one to prescribe to the US failing for the sake of politics....makes no damned sense to me.

[jhu72]

Met with a CLO (collateralized loan obligation) asset manager (owns leveraged corporate loans) and a real estate (value add) owner of industrial properties (over 1.5mm sq ft) and while the CLO Mgr was optimistic, he’s light on Capital and the industrial CRE owner said in reply to my suggestion that we will start to see this impact things that he saw it starting early in the summer. There is some operations moving back to the US but most activity he’s losing in his warehouse and light industrial space is just going to another Asian country. Said many pulled forward their import needs 3-5mo ago and now aren’t doing much of anything.

I suspect the industrial guy is a little closer to street level reality but even the fact that markets aren’t cooperating for the CLO Mgt currently is also telling. One end can prop the other for a good while, if both weaken at the same time (financial markets and boot on the ground activities) then its trouble.

Interesting, I also read somewhere that the GM strike is 'timely' in that that typically keep 30-45 day stock on vehicles, yet as soon as the strike fire up, they were sitting on 90+ day stock that was just sitting in the yard, as if they spooled up production to either (i) look busy or (ii) calculated union negotiations were on the horizon. I know this post is not comparing apples to apples, but seemed there may be a parallel to big C-Suite decision making.

The huge backlog of autos is because they weren't selling. Auto market was soft - GM did not spool up production.

[Farfromgeneva]

Auto market peaked in 2017 in terms of new cars sales north of 17mm, the lightly used off lease market is going to crush prices and financing terms bc LTVs will stay well above 100% for far longer on new financings. Autos probably did pull forward supply shipments. I was just doing some work on tenneco and Goodyear tire and rubber and you can already see weakening in those intermediate producers. Tenneco May be f***ed in fact.

PB, only a fool predicts the stock market. And professionals don’t even quote or pay attention to the DOW joens, it’s an anachronistic market weighted lagging joke. S&P 500 or wilshire 5000. And if you want to track the domestic economy the best is the Russell indices. I’ve worked with guys like bill ackman and John paulsen (the latter I root for failure as he stole my and my partners work on CMBS in the crisis and lied to us about his intentions), the market is somewhere has semi perfect information. Sounds like a guy who only talks about his winners and attributes success to his own prowess. I’ve had killers and dogs along the way, smart money barbells risk these days.

Youth, I’m not cheering for anything just sharing a i work week to week across regulated depositories, shadow banks and non bank lenders, Hedge funds, PE, CRE investors and most everything except generic domestic equities. A lot of the areas are subject to cross asset relative value and highly correlated so there’s value in paying attention. But, I would say that economies and markets are cyclical, it’s a fact. We’ve had a strong run for going on a decade. What happened starting in 98 to 02? Recession. 1990-93? Recession. 08-11? Recession. It’s 8-9yrs deep in a strong run for assets. At some point there has to be, at best a deceleration at worst a crash.

[Peter Brown]

PB, only a fool predicts the stock market. And professionals don’t even quote or pay attention to the DOW joens, it’s an anachronistic market weighted lagging joke. S&P 500 or wilshire 5000. And if you want to track the domestic economy the best is the Russell indices. I’ve worked with guys like bill ackman and John paulsen (the latter I root for failure as he stole my and my partners work on CMBS in the crisis and lied to us about his intentions), the market is somewhere has semi perfect information. Sounds like a guy who only talks about his winners and attributes success to his own prowess. I’ve had killers and dogs along the way, smart money barbells risk these days

I am for sure no stock market expert (I don't even understand half of your post!)...I have investments in the market handled by much smarter people than I (I'm a businessman). My take on the stock market is this: it's always right, even when it's temporarily wrong. My own business is often a reflection on people's perception of the economy, and so to the extent I follow anything, it's on big trade deals and political issues that affect people's overall confidence.

My favorite hedge fund manager sent a note out last night to his humble investors that this Trump/China deal is much larger than advertised, and that we are seeing merely the beginning of the terms. I trust the guy. Let's see!

[MDlaxfan76]

PB, only a fool predicts the stock market. And professionals don’t even quote or pay attention to the DOW joens, it’s an anachronistic market weighted lagging joke. S&P 500 or wilshire 5000. And if you want to track the domestic economy the best is the Russell indices. I’ve worked with guys like bill ackman and John paulsen (the latter I root for failure as he stole my and my partners work on CMBS in the crisis and lied to us about his intentions), the market is somewhere has semi perfect information. Sounds like a guy who only talks about his winners and attributes success to his own prowess. I’ve had killers and dogs along the way, smart money barbells risk these days

I am for sure no stock market expert (I don't even understand half of your post!)...I have investments in the market handled by much smarter people than I (I'm a businessman). My take on the stock market is this: it's always right, even when it's temporarily wrong. My own business is often a reflection on people's perception of the economy, and so to the extent I follow anything, it's on big trade deals and political issues that affect people's overall confidence.

My favorite hedge fund manager sent a note out last night to his humble investors that this Trump/China deal is much larger than advertised, and that we are seeing merely the beginning of the terms. I trust the guy. Let's see!

I don't want to be a "buzz kill" (cradle), but Neil Cavuto just said that he'd read the #'s and the deal for farmers (the most benefited in reaching a deal) does not bring them to a point better than before this trade war "brouhaha" (Cavuto). His guest (no lib) had just commented that the "leverage" in negotiations had swung to the Chinese because of the back drop of the "impeachment" and that Trump needed to get a deal done fast so that the economy wouldn't tank before the election.

Cavuto will be one of Trump's Twitter targets if he keeps telling the truth.

That all said, certainly a roll back of the stupid trade war is good news for the economy. Just don't think any of this suggests that the trade war "worked" in the slightest. It just exposed our vulnerabilities.

[Farfromgeneva]

PB, only a fool predicts the stock market. And professionals don’t even quote or pay attention to the DOW joens, it’s an anachronistic market weighted lagging joke. S&P 500 or wilshire 5000. And if you want to track the domestic economy the best is the Russell indices. I’ve worked with guys like bill ackman and John paulsen (the latter I root for failure as he stole my and my partners work on CMBS in the crisis and lied to us about his intentions), the market is somewhere has semi perfect information. Sounds like a guy who only talks about his winners and attributes success to his own prowess. I’ve had killers and dogs along the way, smart money barbells risk these days

I am for sure no stock market expert (I don't even understand half of your post!)...I have investments in the market handled by much smarter people than I (I'm a businessman). My take on the stock market is this: it's always right, even when it's temporarily wrong. My own business is often a reflection on people's perception of the economy, and so to the extent I follow anything, it's on big trade deals and political issues that affect people's overall confidence.

My favorite hedge fund manager sent a note out last night to his humble investors that this Trump/China deal is much larger than advertised, and that we are seeing merely the beginning of the terms. I trust the guy. Let's see!

Your thought on the stock market are the exact opposite of the axiom that every institutional financial professional believes in, just so you know, which is that “the market can be wrong longer than one can stay solvent”. Markets are a forum for continuous price discovery, not an expression of equilibrium.

Are you invested with said HF Mgr? Otherwise doesn’t really matter, just cheerleading for the president, if you follow him if your money isn’t invested there.

Basically take the opposite of all the things you posted as reality. But feel free to go ahead and try to shoot the financial industry as not in touch with Main Street, you know, like the guys who own the real estate that holds industrial businesses and their supply chain.