THE 2019 Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

[Hawkeye]

The idea that this is being done to weaken the schedule is so laughable it's almost beyond parody.

Beyond parity too.

Hmmm.

[molo]

I won't comment on the end of the series with UVA except to say that I always looked forward to the short ride down Charles Street and the challenging jaunt to College Park as chances to see UVA live locally and am upset that I won't be able to, probably for the rest of my life. Well, lets get to the game. I gave my thumbnail sketch of Hopkins on the UVA board. For Hopkins fans, here's how I see UVA.
ATTACK
Kraus seems healthier than earlier in the year. Slowed down, he is a Marr-like lefty sniper. Moving more freely, he is a strong dodger capable of attacking in either direction from X, tho more dangerous from the left. Will Foley cover him, or will Petro opt to put the righty Rapine on Kraus and play the lefty on Moore? Moore, like Conrad and Aitken before him, was a number one midfield recruit. He's moved to attack this year, primarily operating on the right wing. Laviano, who plays inside and on the right side, reminds me of a righty version of Duke's Max Quinznani. He finishes well and collect garbage. All three ride hard and can cause turnovers.
MIDFIELD
Is there a better middie between the lines than Conrad? He gobbles up gbs from the wing, can execute the one man clear better than anyone since Matt Abbott, and has the offensive skills to average a couple of points a game. Aitken, the team's offensive star, will remind Hopkins fans of another big right handed middie who was know to bomb away left handed as well. He and Conrad were on the field almost every minute UVA had the ball in the second half against ND. Herring, a senior who is listed as an attackman, often runs with these two, inverting at x, where he is dangerous feeding against shorties. Conner, a freshman, has seen time with the first unit. Typically, UVA will run two midfields for a while, with a combination of vets and young guys filling in the other two spots, but they revert to a power unit of Conrad and Aitken with Herring or Conner down the stretch. Common sense says they should get tired, but they appear indefatigable.
Connors, who takes most of the longstick face-offs wings, is a good cover man who excels in transition. The staff toyed with moving him to close. The backup lsm, Rock, is, like Connors, on emd as well. Earlier five guys rotated in as dms. With one of them out with an injury, the four man corps of Dziama, Fox, Smith, and Harris split time pretty evenly. While there is no Goodrich in this group, you are talking about four players who are as good if not better than their BJ counterparts. LaSalla has supplanted Schwenk as the primary face-off man. While it's not easy to gauge specific face-off matchups, I would give the Hopkins duo the advantage at the X, which UVA counters with the wing play of Conrad and Connors.
DEFENSE
Saustad, a freshman from Texas, has emerged as the best cover man. Greco, a lefty, is a capable number two, with Kology the third guy. This unit has improved but is still not at the level of the offense.
GOALIE
Rode, who won the starting job over an upperclassman last year as a freshman, was the statistical outlier in the slaughter at the RAC, and several games later yielded the starting spot to the top incoming freshman goalie, who set a record for the most saves in a game at Princeton's Class of '52 Stadium. The next week, however, he got quick hook in the Dome, and Rode's who has yet to have a game resembling Burkinshaw's at Princeton, has remained the starter since then. Practice must present a different picture that what we have seen in games. If Rode struggles, will he get pulled?
OVERALL IMPRESSION
With the exception of the blowout lost to Loyola, UVA played every opponent close. Is the Towson game a harbinger will happen to Hopkins against a more athletic team, or will they win enough face-offs and slow things down enough to exploit the favorable matchups of their attack against the UVA close d? The safest bet is a close UVA win. I keep thinking that UVA has the talent to erupt on offense and blow this open, but experience says they are likely to play anyone close and win more games than they lose. I anticipate a close UVA win, something in the 13-11 range, but if things go sideways for Hopkins, I could see a game more like the Hopkins games against Towson and Loyola.

[wgdsr]

I won't comment on the end of the series with UVA except to say that I always looked forward to the short ride down Charles Street and the challenging jaunt to College Park as chances to see UVA live locally and am upset that I won't be able to, probably for the rest of my life.

looks like you'll have a chance to make it down rte 1, either next year or the year after depending on hoos home first.
don't die on us.

[10stone5]

MIDFIELD
Is there a better middie between the lines than Conrad? He gobbles up gbs from the wing, can execute the one man clear better than anyone since Matt Abbott, and has the offensive skills to average a couple of points a game. Aitken, the team's offensive star, will remind Hopkins fans of another big right handed middie who was know to bomb away left handed as well. He and Conrad were on the field almost every minute UVA had the ball in the second half against ND. Herring, a senior who is listed as an attackman, often runs with these two, inverting at x, where he is dangerous feeding against shorties. Conner, a freshman, has seen time with the first unit. Typically, UVA will run two midfields for a while, with a combination of vets and young guys filling in the other two spots, but they revert to a power unit of Conrad and Aitken with Herring or Conner down the stretch. Common sense says they should get tired, but they appear indefatigable.
Connors, who takes most of the longstick face-offs wings, is a good cover man who excels in transition. The staff toyed with moving him to close. The backup lsm, Rock, is, like Connors, on emd as well. Earlier five guys rotated in as dms. With one of them out with an injury, the four man corps of Dziama, Fox, Smith, and Harris split time pretty evenly. While there is no Goodrich in this group, you are talking about four players who are as good if not better than their BJ counterparts. LaSalla has supplanted Schwenk as the primary face-off man. While it's not easy to gauge specific face-off matchups, I would give the Hopkins duo the advantage at the X, which UVA counters with the wing play of Conrad and Connors.

Curious to see what they do with Grayson Sallade.
He has shown he is capable in transition.
Nothing but speculation here, as I do not know if he is running or has run defensive mid, on wing on face off or other, or whether he is nicked up. It just seems a waste of talent if Sallade is sitting.

[molo]

He was the fifth guy. I think he’s hurt. The dm rotation has been deep while on offense they run the two stars heavily. Another freshman, Simmons, has seen some time at offensively middie, too.

[jhu06]

It's time to use some basic logic...this game has been a staple of both teams' scheduled for decades. It's been a marquee game for Hopkins every year of Petro's tenure here. Suddenly there's a new staff at Virginia that has no ties to this rivalry—and two years later it's being taken off the schedule. Maybe joining a conference complicates things and perhaps Petro made a promise to Navy that they'd do whatever it took to get them back on the schedule BUT if you think this is a one-sided decision in any way you're very likely way off the mark. My guess is Petro did approach Tiffany about perhaps working to find a different date for the game to accommodate Navy returning to the schedule, but that Tiffany probably didn't care enough to do so in good faith. If that's the case, then which team is really the one that doesn't want to play this game? These things take two to tango.

The idea that this is being done to weaken the schedule is so laughable it's almost beyond parody.

Maybe carc, ed lee, quint, the IL boys who seem to spend most of their time touting sick gear and the glory of Paul Rabil and the rest of the working mainstream lacrosse media could do some old fashioned reporting and call homewood and charlotesville and get a straight story. Or is that cutting into their haircut time?

[HopFan16]

I gave my thumbnail sketch of Hopkins on the UVA board. For Hopkins fans, here's how I see UVA.

Thanks for the write-up, molo. Am I just missing your Hopkins post or is it not on this UVA board? Would like to hear your thoughts on the Jays.

As far as matchups go, Petro doesn't seem like the kind of guy who would get cute with it and try to match up a lefty on a righty and vice versa. He puts his best guy on the other team's best guy, and that means Foley on Kraus. The two matched up last year. Kraus got his points but I thought Foley held up pretty well. Dox was the much bigger issue that game. Foley is easily the Jays' best cover guy and is playing well this year. All of that being said, Kraus may not be a big kid but he's a very strong and physical dodger, and Foley has had some problems with those kinds of guys in his career. He can match feet with anyone—see his work on Sowers vs. Princeton earlier this month—but he sometimes tends to lose his position, if even for a split second, against power dodgers (see Kitchen's question mark dodge last week, as well as Kraus' first goal against the Jays last year). Rapine is a bit bigger and stronger but doesn't move as fluidly and is not as balanced. Rapine did have an excellent game in this matchup as a freshman in 2017, including what may have been the game-winning caused turnover.

The Virginia attack will likely put some points on the board but Hop's strategy must start and end with defending Aitken. I'm assuming he'll be given the lacrosse equivalent of bracket coverage in football—an LSM following him around, staying as close to his hands as possible, with a shortie sliding to his side of the field early and often. It sure as heck didn't work last year.

Midfield scoring was important for the Jays last year: Tinney and DeSimone combined for 9 points. Of course Tinney has graduated and DeSimone is now a ghost, so they'll have to find those goals from elsewhere. Marr and Williams did combine for 7 goals of their own, and they'll need to put in a similar effort this time around if they hope to hoist what could be the Doyle Smith cup for the final time.

It's time to use some basic logic...this game has been a staple of both teams' scheduled for decades. It's been a marquee game for Hopkins every year of Petro's tenure here. Suddenly there's a new staff at Virginia that has no ties to this rivalry—and two years later it's being taken off the schedule. Maybe joining a conference complicates things and perhaps Petro made a promise to Navy that they'd do whatever it took to get them back on the schedule BUT if you think this is a one-sided decision in any way you're very likely way off the mark. My guess is Petro did approach Tiffany about perhaps working to find a different date for the game to accommodate Navy returning to the schedule, but that Tiffany probably didn't care enough to do so in good faith. If that's the case, then which team is really the one that doesn't want to play this game? These things take two to tango.

The idea that this is being done to weaken the schedule is so laughable it's almost beyond parody.

Maybe carc, ed lee, quint, the IL boys who seem to spend most of their time touting sick gear and the glory of Paul Rabil and the rest of the working mainstream lacrosse media could do some old fashioned reporting and call homewood and charlotesville and get a straight story. Or is that cutting into their haircut time?

In an interview with UVA athletics today, Tiffany revealed that the ACC is (finally!) moving its conference schedule to the end of the season, which forced them to move some games around in 2020. More evidence that those placing the blame on Hopkins for this were premature and likely mistaken.

[molo]

My comments on JHU are on the UVA board under the screen name of my late fox terrier.

[Homer]

it's garbage, homer. whoever's pulling the strings on this is doing it in their own self-interest.

somebody posted somewhere the game's been played every year since like 1948. that's post-war. garbage.

Has all the earmarks of being garbage. Honestly, this is my favorite rivalry game that Hopkins is involved in. If it goes away I'm gonna be really sad.

[DocBarrister]

I won't comment on the end of the series with UVA except to say that I always looked forward to the short ride down Charles Street and the challenging jaunt to College Park as chances to see UVA live locally and am upset that I won't be able to, probably for the rest of my life. Well, lets get to the game. I gave my thumbnail sketch of Hopkins on the UVA board. For Hopkins fans, here's how I see UVA.
ATTACK
Kraus seems healthier than earlier in the year. Slowed down, he is a Marr-like lefty sniper. Moving more freely, he is a strong dodger capable of attacking in either direction from X, tho more dangerous from the left. Will Foley cover him, or will Petro opt to put the righty Rapine on Kraus and play the lefty on Moore? Moore, like Conrad and Aitken before him, was a number one midfield recruit. He's moved to attack this year, primarily operating on the right wing. Laviano, who plays inside and on the right side, reminds me of a righty version of Duke's Max Quinznani. He finishes well and collect garbage. All three ride hard and can cause turnovers.
MIDFIELD
Is there a better middie between the lines than Conrad? He gobbles up gbs from the wing, can execute the one man clear better than anyone since Matt Abbott, and has the offensive skills to average a couple of points a game. Aitken, the team's offensive star, will remind Hopkins fans of another big right handed middie who was know to bomb away left handed as well. He and Conrad were on the field almost every minute UVA had the ball in the second half against ND. Herring, a senior who is listed as an attackman, often runs with these two, inverting at x, where he is dangerous feeding against shorties. Conner, a freshman, has seen time with the first unit. Typically, UVA will run two midfields for a while, with a combination of vets and young guys filling in the other two spots, but they revert to a power unit of Conrad and Aitken with Herring or Conner down the stretch. Common sense says they should get tired, but they appear indefatigable.
Connors, who takes most of the longstick face-offs wings, is a good cover man who excels in transition. The staff toyed with moving him to close. The backup lsm, Rock, is, like Connors, on emd as well. Earlier five guys rotated in as dms. With one of them out with an injury, the four man corps of Dziama, Fox, Smith, and Harris split time pretty evenly. While there is no Goodrich in this group, you are talking about four players who are as good if not better than their BJ counterparts. LaSalla has supplanted Schwenk as the primary face-off man. While it's not easy to gauge specific face-off matchups, I would give the Hopkins duo the advantage at the X, which UVA counters with the wing play of Conrad and Connors.
DEFENSE
Saustad, a freshman from Texas, has emerged as the best cover man. Greco, a lefty, is a capable number two, with Kology the third guy. This unit has improved but is still not at the level of the offense.
GOALIE
Rode, who won the starting job over an upperclassman last year as a freshman, was the statistical outlier in the slaughter at the RAC, and several games later yielded the starting spot to the top incoming freshman goalie, who set a record for the most saves in a game at Princeton's Class of '52 Stadium. The next week, however, he got quick hook in the Dome, and Rode's who has yet to have a game resembling Burkinshaw's at Princeton, has remained the starter since then. Practice must present a different picture that what we have seen in games. If Rode struggles, will he get pulled?
OVERALL IMPRESSION
With the exception of the blowout lost to Loyola, UVA played every opponent close. Is the Towson game a harbinger will happen to Hopkins against a more athletic team, or will they win enough face-offs and slow things down enough to exploit the favorable matchups of their attack against the UVA close d? The safest bet is a close UVA win. I keep thinking that UVA has the talent to erupt on offense and blow this open, but experience says they are likely to play anyone close and win more games than they lose. I anticipate a close UVA win, something in the 13-11 range, but if things go sideways for Hopkins, I could see a game more like the Hopkins games against Towson and Loyola.

Very nice analysis, molo. Thank you.

When you’re facing a juggernaut offense like Virginia’s, sometimes the only thing you can do is minimize their possessions and possession time. That means winning faceoffs cleanly, garnering your share of 50-50 gbs, clearing effectively, riding hard, causing turnovers, and (for Darby) saving shots without rebounds. Tall order for the Blue Jays, but I think Hopkins can win this one at home.

I’m calling it 13-12, Johns Hopkins.

DocBarrister

[Hawkeye]

I won't comment on the end of the series with UVA except to say that I always looked forward to the short ride down Charles Street and the challenging jaunt to College Park as chances to see UVA live locally and am upset that I won't be able to, probably for the rest of my life.

I'm sure that this isn't the last time that UVA will ever play Maryland or Hopkins.

[Homer]

If this happened, this was almost assuredly a Hopkins decision. UVA hasn't changed conferences that locks up 5 weekends in April. So when Petro wanted to get Navy back on the schedule (with thier schedule restrictions) someone of the UNC/SU/UVA bunch has to go. TBH it shouldn't be hard to play Navy and UVA p
L9pand Loyola and Towson every year but when you have to kowtow a conference it does make it more difficult. But, then I think this switch was done for other reasons like weakening the sched⁰ule.

You're right, UVa is in *the same* conference that they've always been, which now locks up the same number of weekends as Hopkins' does. (4 conference games + 2 conf tournament weekends for ACC vs. 5+1 for Big 10.)

I just looked it up: the Hop-UVa game has been essentially the same weekend every year going back at least to 1991. Navy got the PL to switch their bye week to the *preceding* weekend for next year. I don't know this for certain, but I think it's a reasonable assumption that Navy did that to facilitate getting Hopkins back on the schedule. Anyway, whoever Hop's playing next year on the traditional Virginia weekend, it won't be Navy, who's set to host Holy Cross that day.

[Hawkeye]

You're right, UVa is in *the same* conference that they've always been, which now locks up the same number of weekends as Hopkins' does. (4 conference games + 2 conf tournament weekends for ACC vs. 5+1 for Big 10.)

I just looked it up: the Hop-UVa game has been essentially the same weekend every year going back at least to 1991. Navy got the PL to switch their bye week to the *preceding* weekend for next year. I don't know this for certain, but I think it's a reasonable assumption that Navy did that to facilitate getting Hopkins back on the schedule. Anyway, whoever Hop's playing next year on the traditional Virginia weekend, it won't be Navy, who's set to host Holy Cross that day.

Where's the best place to look into future schedules for teams?

[Homer]

Where's the best place to look into future schedules for teams?

Some conferences release their scheduling grid a few years in advance. Here's the page from the Patriot League I was referencing before: http://www.patriotleague.org/sports/201 ... -html.aspx

With others you're SOL, unfortunately, and of course all these are subject to change.

[Hawkeye]

Where's the best place to look into future schedules for teams?

Some conferences release their scheduling grid a few years in advance. Here's the page from the Patriot League I was referencing before: http://www.patriotleague.org/sports/201 ... -html.aspx

With others you're SOL, unfortunately, and of course all these are subject to change.

Thanks! Very interesting to look at indeed. It would be great if all teams had their non-conference plans announced at least a couple of years ahead of time, but alas.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

Where's the best place to look into future schedules for teams?

Some conferences release their scheduling grid a few years in advance. Here's the page from the Patriot League I was referencing before: http://www.patriotleague.org/sports/201 ... -html.aspx

With others you're SOL, unfortunately, and of course all these are subject to change.

Thanks! Very interesting to look at indeed. It would be great if all teams had their non-conference plans announced at least a couple of years ahead of time, but alas.

If they did that, they’d have to mix up the jersey numbers 2+ years in advance.

[HopFan16]

I’m calling it 13-12, Johns Hopkins.

The kiss of death.

Hearing that we might replace UVA with another ACC team.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

I’m calling it 13-12, Johns Hopkins.

The kiss of death.

Hearing that we might replace UVA with another ACC team.

NOoooo! Not those blue a-holes!

Oh, the humanity.

Drop Syracuse.

[BlueJaySince1947]

Traditionally[ If we can still apply that term to Hopkins lacrosse today ! ] Navy was the next to last game on the Jay's schedule with the Twerps being the last college match of the season. Back in the day the last game played was the annual thrashing from the Mt. Washington lacrosse club[ loaded with many AA ex-Blue Jays ].
The Virginia game was a big rivalry then ; Syracuse wasn't anywhere on the radar.
The matches with VA , Navy and UMD were the Big Three. Dropping VA would be a sad thing for sure...!

[51percentcorn]

I don't know anything but it may be very presumptuous to lay this at the feet of Hopkins without at least anecdotal evidence but IF this was Hopkins' doing primarily why wouldn't you drop Carolina instead of UVA if your intent is to pull in Duke or Notre Dame?

Maybe Hopkins doesn't want to face Aitken/Moore/Kraus etc. with Shellenberger added in - I know I don't