All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[Peter Brown]

Listening to my favorite doctor Senor Fauci on Wolf Blitzer.

If anyone with modest brain size is listening, this is the most positive he has been about therapies and vaccines. Very informative. Very positive.

This virus is cooked.

Florida again: People over 85 (not 75, 85) make up 1 in 3 of #COVID deaths statewide - 5x as many deaths as everyone under 55.

Put another way: if you are over 85, you have a 1 in 300 chance of dying of #COVID in Florida in the last five months.

Under 55? 1 in 33,000.

BTW: Per @CDCgov, people 85 and over have about a 1 in 7 chance of dying annually from all causes.

This is why it's likely the excess mortality from #Covid will be so hard to spot over the course of a year or more.

[ggait]

BTW: Per @CDCgov, people 85 and over have about a 1 in 7 chance of dying annually from all causes.

This is why it's likely the excess mortality from #Covid will be so hard to spot over the course of a year or more.

When the pros do the retrospective analysis, they'll look to see if more than 1 in 7 were dying in the aggreagte during a particular period.

If yes, then they will look to see what was going on then.

Was it motorcycle accidents?

Was it gunshot wounds?

If not, then its Covid.

Standard way of doing it for forever. Not hard to do at all. Unless, apparently, if you are UF grad.

[RedFromMI]

BTW: Per @CDCgov, people 85 and over have about a 1 in 7 chance of dying annually from all causes.

This is why it's likely the excess mortality from #Covid will be so hard to spot over the course of a year or more.

When the pros do the retrospective analysis, they'll look to see if more than 1 in 7 were dying in the aggreagte during a particular period.

If yes, then they will look to see what was going on then.

Was it motorcycle accidents?

Was it gunshot wounds?

If not, then its Covid.

Standard way of doing it for forever. Not hard to do at all. Unless, apparently, if you are UF grad.

Plus, if you slice and dice the data enough times you can make all numbers small (only look for excess data in FL and over 85). And therefore lose stuff in the noise.

But excess mortality has generally been found to be approximately 25% to 50% above the normal death rates. So that size effect is quite easy to spot.
And all those numbers PB spouted HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO EFFECT on the excess death rates... The excess deaths are the ones not caught - and because we are in a pandemic the chances are huge that all or almost all of the excess numbers are due to COVID-19 in some way.

This is not even new science - epidemiologists have been doing these kinds of analyses for years...

[wgdsr]

excess deaths will likely skew toward coming down, at least for the older crowd.

20-24% of deaths in the u.s. annually are from nursing homes. i read that once, don't quote me. that means about 600,000 people.

covid has taken the last several months out of a lot of people's lives away, and also the ability of family members to see them. and in many cases, to eulogize them in a normal way. hopefully at least the latter can turn into a celebration of life at a later date.

[Typical Lax Dad]

The Party of suppression of free speech, Cancel Culture, White Fragility/Privilege, and Defund Police, etc.

What aspects of “defund the police” do you disagree with and why?

Here is a good overview: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2 ... merit/amp/

[ggait]

This is not even new science - epidemiologists have been doing these kinds of analyses for years...

Definitely not new. All the data you see about the 1918 pandemic? That's exactly how that data was calculated.

So long as you didn't graduate from UF, it is very standard and straightforward.

[Typical Lax Dad]

excess deaths will likely skew toward coming down, at least for the older crowd.

20-24% of deaths in the u.s. annually are from nursing homes. i read that once, don't quote me. that means about 600,000 people.

covid has taken the last several months out of a lot of people's lives away, and also the ability of family members to see them. and in many cases, to eulogize them in a normal way. hopefully at least the latter can turn into a celebration of life at a later date.

So all the nursing home deaths were just deaths a few months earlier than normal? Including nursing home deaths distorts the number of real coronavirus deaths? The number of real coronavirus deaths is closer to 90,000? We are over counting by 60,000 folks?

[wgdsr]

excess deaths will likely skew toward coming down, at least for the older crowd.

20-24% of deaths in the u.s. annually are from nursing homes. i read that once, don't quote me. that means about 600,000 people.

covid has taken the last several months out of a lot of people's lives away, and also the ability of family members to see them. and in many cases, to eulogize them in a normal way. hopefully at least the latter can turn into a celebration of life at a later date.

So all the nursing home deaths were just deaths a few months earlier than normal? Including nursing home deaths distorts the number of real coronavirus deaths? The number of real coronavirus deaths is closer to 90,000? We are over counting by 60,000 folks?

i didn't say that, in fact i was saying the opposite.

don't misrepresent my words, tld, at least i know you're better than that.

you know the score.

[Typical Lax Dad]

excess deaths will likely skew toward coming down, at least for the older crowd.

20-24% of deaths in the u.s. annually are from nursing homes. i read that once, don't quote me. that means about 600,000 people.

covid has taken the last several months out of a lot of people's lives away, and also the ability of family members to see them. and in many cases, to eulogize them in a normal way. hopefully at least the latter can turn into a celebration of life at a later date.

So all the nursing home deaths were just deaths a few months earlier than normal? Including nursing home deaths distorts the number of real coronavirus deaths? The number of real coronavirus deaths is closer to 90,000? We are over counting by 60,000 folks?

i didn't say that, in fact i was saying the opposite.

don't misrepresent my words, tld, at least i know you're better than that.

you know the score.

I misunderstood the post. My bad. It initially read like some old people just died a few months early..that’s not what you meant upon a second reading. My fault.

[wgdsr]

BTW: Per @CDCgov, people 85 and over have about a 1 in 7 chance of dying annually from all causes.

This is why it's likely the excess mortality from #Covid will be so hard to spot over the course of a year or more.

When the pros do the retrospective analysis, they'll look to see if more than 1 in 7 were dying in the aggreagte during a particular period.

If yes, then they will look to see what was going on then.

Was it motorcycle accidents?

Was it gunshot wounds?

If not, then its Covid.

Standard way of doing it for forever. Not hard to do at all. Unless, apparently, if you are UF grad.

Plus, if you slice and dice the data enough times you can make all numbers small (only look for excess data in FL and over 85). And therefore lose stuff in the noise.

But excess mortality has generally been found to be approximately 25% to 50% above the normal death rates. So that size effect is quite easy to spot.
And all those numbers PB spouted HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO EFFECT on the excess death rates... The excess deaths are the ones not caught - and because we are in a pandemic the chances are huge that all or almost all of the excess numbers are due to COVID-19 in some way.

This is not even new science - epidemiologists have been doing these kinds of analyses for years...

can you source excess mortality at 25 -50%? is that nationwide?

that would be a huge number.

[RedFromMI]

BTW: Per @CDCgov, people 85 and over have about a 1 in 7 chance of dying annually from all causes.

This is why it's likely the excess mortality from #Covid will be so hard to spot over the course of a year or more.

When the pros do the retrospective analysis, they'll look to see if more than 1 in 7 were dying in the aggreagte during a particular period.

If yes, then they will look to see what was going on then.

Was it motorcycle accidents?

Was it gunshot wounds?

If not, then its Covid.

Standard way of doing it for forever. Not hard to do at all. Unless, apparently, if you are UF grad.

Plus, if you slice and dice the data enough times you can make all numbers small (only look for excess data in FL and over 85). And therefore lose stuff in the noise.

But excess mortality has generally been found to be approximately 25% to 50% above the normal death rates. So that size effect is quite easy to spot.
And all those numbers PB spouted HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO EFFECT on the excess death rates... The excess deaths are the ones not caught - and because we are in a pandemic the chances are huge that all or almost all of the excess numbers are due to COVID-19 in some way.

This is not even new science - epidemiologists have been doing these kinds of analyses for years...

can you source excess mortality at 25 -50%? is that nationwide?

that would be a huge number.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamain ... le/2767980

28% in that one. Covered March 1 to May 30, and nationwide.

[DocBarrister]

In contrast, the United States is almost unique ... denial and essentially no early response, followed by a very late uncoordinated response, followed by a premature relaxation of mitigation efforts, followed by a near-complete abdication of national leadership, resulting in a completely uncontrolled surge in the pandemic. It really is criminal mass homicide.

You have these steps a little out of order: "a near-complete abdication of national leadership" occurred about 3 years before "denial and essentially no early response."

I stand corrected.

DocBarrister

[wgdsr]

BTW: Per @CDCgov, people 85 and over have about a 1 in 7 chance of dying annually from all causes.

This is why it's likely the excess mortality from #Covid will be so hard to spot over the course of a year or more.

When the pros do the retrospective analysis, they'll look to see if more than 1 in 7 were dying in the aggreagte during a particular period.

If yes, then they will look to see what was going on then.

Was it motorcycle accidents?

Was it gunshot wounds?

If not, then its Covid.

Standard way of doing it for forever. Not hard to do at all. Unless, apparently, if you are UF grad.

Plus, if you slice and dice the data enough times you can make all numbers small (only look for excess data in FL and over 85). And therefore lose stuff in the noise.

But excess mortality has generally been found to be approximately 25% to 50% above the normal death rates. So that size effect is quite easy to spot.
And all those numbers PB spouted HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO EFFECT on the excess death rates... The excess deaths are the ones not caught - and because we are in a pandemic the chances are huge that all or almost all of the excess numbers are due to COVID-19 in some way.

This is not even new science - epidemiologists have been doing these kinds of analyses for years...

can you source excess mortality at 25 -50%? is that nationwide?

that would be a huge number.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamain ... le/2767980

28% in that one. Covered March 1 to May 30, and nationwide.

ok. i must have read your intention wrong. which said:

"But excess mortality has generally been found to be approximately 25% to 50% above the normal death rates"


this is saying covid deaths may be 28% higher than reported for covid deaths.

[ggait]

double post

[ggait]

The math is pretty straightforward guys.

2.8 million people die each year in the USA. So that would be about 233k per month.

The official Covid count is at 150k after five months. So 1,000 per day or 30k per month roughly.

So the "official" tally for Covid is a 13% increase over historical baseline.

The pros think the official Covid count is under-stated by 25-50%. So the "real" count today is more like 185-225k.

Per month, that would be 37.5.-45k. As compared to baseline of 233k. So Covid is basically killing almost as many people currently as cancer does (49k) in a month.

All the pros think the Covid death tally is systematically understated. Which fact will be revealed when the retrospective analysis is done.

Only folks like Petey and Six think the Covid count is being inflated by gunshots and motorcycle accidents.

[jhu72]

Are these smart people? No.

[Typical Lax Dad]

The math is pretty straightforward guys.

2.8 million people die each year in the USA. So that would be about 233k per month.

The official Covid count is at 150k after five months. So 1,000 per day or 30k per month roughly.

So the "official" tally for Covid is a 13% increase over historical baseline.

The pros think the official Covid count is under-stated by 25-50%. So the "real" count today is more like 185-225k.

Per month, that would be 37.5.-45k. As compared to baseline of 233k. So Covid is basically killing almost as many people currently as cancer does (49k) in a month.

All the pros think the Covid death tally is systematically understated. Which fact will be revealed when the retrospective analysis is done.

Only folks like Petey and Six think the Covid count is being inflated by gunshots and motorcycle accidents.

Most of that 150,000 came in April, May, June and July.

https://apple.news/Ajzb3usu4Ramwk52_a-HTZg

[jhu72]

So the Marlins are infected out the wahzoo with covid. Play a game against the Phillies rather than cancelling. Anyone who is surprised that it is a team from Florida, raise your hand.

[ggait]

For sports, it is easy to start the season/schedule. But close to impossible to keep to (and complete) a schedule.

Just hours before the first game, the Braves lost two catchers to possible Covid. They only carry two catchers on the roster. So they had to call someone up from the taxi squad on an emergency basis so they could field a team against the Mets. And that was for the very first game. Only 59 more to go...

And a couple days later, the Marlins have 11 players and two coaches test positive. The Marlins recently played the Braves and the Phillies. The Braves recently played the Mets. So you already have four teams (Marlins, Braves, Mets, Phillies) that are iffy. After three games played.

TBD if the NBA bubble will hold up. Hard to see anything other than that model succeeding.

I can't see any college football this fall. I'm sure the NFL will try.

[jhu72]

… these teams are supposed to be quarantined when not playing. Tested whenever they want and this happens. So explain to me again how kids are going to go back to school when they don't have such protections? Trumpnista are f**king fools that do not care about either students or workers. Kids go back to school so your parents can go out and risk their lives working for rich people.