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Re: 2020 Elections - A Reckoning
Posted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:36 pm
by jhu72
HooDat wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:26 pm
jhu72 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:18 pm
Why is Warren more likely to lose worse than HRC?
because Warren has all of HRC's personality shortcomings without the shiv hidden in her sleeve.
She is a smart woman and Trump country doesn't like smart woman. Got that. Same as Hillary. So how does she lose worse than Hillary? Numbers don't add up that I can see. She is not ignoring the midwest states and is saying things the working class in those states should like to hear. She also will not have the stay at home problem that Hillary had among the democratic base - she motivates them - or Trump does.
Re: 2020 Elections - A Reckoning
Posted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:41 pm
by tech37
jhu72 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:36 pm
HooDat wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:26 pm
jhu72 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:18 pm
Why is Warren more likely to lose worse than HRC?
because Warren has all of HRC's personality shortcomings without the shiv hidden in her sleeve.
She is a smart woman and Trump country doesn't like smart woman. Got that. Same as Hillary. So how does she lose worse than Hillary? Numbers don't add up that I can see. She is not ignoring the midwest states and is saying things the working class in those states should like to here. She also will not have the stay at home problem that Hillary had among the democratic base - she motivates them - or Trump does.
You guess (or hope I suppose) she will somehow move to the center enough to carry the majority of voters, including the centrists/moderates/independents? Good luck with that.
Re: 2020 Elections - A Reckoning
Posted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:45 pm
by jhu72
No, I don't think she has to move so much. You guys are telling me Bernie is the only one that can win, and he is farther left than Warren is - significantly in my opinion. She could lose, but I am not buying it would be worse than Hillary.
Re: 2020 Elections - A Reckoning
Posted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:54 pm
by DocBarrister
jhu72 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:45 pm
No, I don't think she has to move so much. You guys are telling me Bernie is the only one that can win, and he is farther left than Warren is - significantly in my opinion. She could lose, but I am not buying it would be worse than Hillary.
Bernie is in a free fall, placing fourth in Iowa behind Biden, Warren, and Harris in the latest poll. Despite his near 100% name recognition, he is now polling in the single digits there. Not good when you consider his support in states with large African American populations is weak.
#NeverBernie
DocBarrister
Re: 2020 Elections - A Reckoning
Posted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:03 pm
by a fan
Ok, so I have to ask--who is your candidate of choice, Doc?
Re: 2020 Elections - A Reckoning
Posted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:11 pm
by tech37
jhu72 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:45 pm
No, I don't think she has to move so much. You guys are telling me Bernie is the only one that can win, and he is farther left than Warren is - significantly in my opinion. She could lose, but I am not buying it would be worse than Hillary.
Hell no, Bernie certainly can't win IMO. She's white, that doesn't help with the left wing nuts. She may be smart but comes off as pretentious, not genuine, that doesn't help. The business community will shun her, that doesn't help...she will regulate the country into a depression. Is she likable?
Maybe I missed something but what does it matter if she loses worse than Clinton?
Re: 2020 Elections - A Reckoning
Posted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:20 pm
by CU77
HooDat wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:25 pmThe person with the best shot is/was Bernie
I don't agree at all. Shrill calls to revolution just don't get nearly enough votes. Plus, Bernie is very vulnerable to negative campaigning (which he hasn't experienced, HRC had to treat him with kid gloves in 2016), and would be beset with endless calls to explain how he pays for it all. And he would do worse than HRC with minorities.
As I've said before, I look at the 3 Ds who've actually won a POTUS election in the past 50 years: Carter, B. Clinton, Obama. They all gave off vibes of calm leadership: the Man from Hope, Yes We Can.
That's how you win as a D. Only Biden is pulling off that act.
EDIT: Doc beat me to it, and he's right, as usual.
Re: 2020 Elections - A Reckoning
Posted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:26 pm
by CU77
Oh, and in 2018, all 40 House seats that flipped from R to D were won by centrists. Raging socialists like AOC (I'm a big fan) could upset centrists in heavily D districts, but not in R-D competitive districts. And you need a ton of those to be POTUS.
Re: 2020 Elections - A Reckoning
Posted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:45 pm
by DMac
Doc's right, as usual? See Her Holiness 2016.
Agree with tech37 on Warren, not chance...Bernie either (I like Bernie).
Ds better come up with someone...Biden sure as hell isn't the guy.
Re: 2020 Elections - A Reckoning
Posted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:51 pm
by jhu72
CU77 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:20 pm
HooDat wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:25 pmThe person with the best shot is/was Bernie
I don't agree at all. Shrill calls to revolution just don't get nearly enough votes. Plus, Bernie is very vulnerable to negative campaigning (which he hasn't experienced, HRC had to treat him with kid gloves in 2016), and would be beset with endless calls to explain how he pays for it all. And he would do worse than HRC with minorities.
As I've said before, I look at the 3 Ds who've actually won a POTUS election in the past 50 years: Carter, B. Clinton, Obama. They all gave off vibes of calm leadership: the Man from Hope, Yes We Can.
That's how you win as a D. Only Biden is pulling off that act.
EDIT: Doc beat me to it, and he's right, as usual.
I think there are others in the field that are capable of pulling that off, but no one is looking at them. Too many candidates.
Re: 2020 Elections - A Reckoning
Posted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:52 pm
by jhu72
DMac wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:45 pm
Doc's right, as usual? See Her Holiness 2016.
Agree with tech37 on Warren, not chance...Bernie either (I like Bernie).
Ds better come up with someone...Biden sure as hell isn't the guy.
Sounds like you'll be voting for Trump.
Actually - I'd love your opinion on each of the 20+ candidates, both what you think of each and their chances of beating Trump.
Re: 2020 Elections - A Reckoning
Posted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:54 pm
by DMac
That's about as likely as Doc voting for Trump.
Re: 2020 Elections - A Reckoning
Posted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:57 pm
by jhu72
DMac wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:54 pm
That's about as likely as Doc voting for Trump.
See question above. It's a lot to ask, but I value your opinion.
Re: 2020 Elections - A Reckoning
Posted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 10:42 pm
by DMac
Geezuz H, 72, that's a mighty tall order, particularly when given to one who doesn't pay all that much attention to the whole mess. Without google I'd have a hard time listing more than a few of our Presidential hopefuls from the D side. I view the whole lot (politicians in general) pretty much as I do magicians. One lot does sleight of hand, the other sleight of tounge. Ultimately I'd agree with a fan, lot of trickery and words but all in all everything remains the same, and what's wrong was the other letter's fault.
Policies (shmolicies) aside, likeability factor (it's only fall ball at this point) only.
Biden...just not seeing it, comes across to me as a deflating balloon. Joe should be put out to pasture.
Kamala...angry person, sharp tounge. She might to be able to stand up to Trump but he might be able to get her so riled up she loses it.
Tulsi...very likeable and sharp. Think she could stand up to Trump just fine too. Could get interesting if Spurz goes down the "your service in Iraq was just chickensh*t stuff and you're no hero" path with her.
Warren...see tech37. HRC, the sequil.
That's a start, will get back to the list later.
Oh, and you really need to up the bar in people whose opinion you value.
Re: 2020 Elections - A Reckoning
Posted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 10:49 pm
by DocBarrister
DMac wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:45 pm
Doc's right, as usual? See Her Holiness 2016.
Agree with tech37 on Warren, not chance...Bernie either (I like Bernie).
Ds better come up with someone...Biden sure as hell isn't the guy.
So I underestimated the racism, bigotry, and misogyny in America. Never thought someone as despicable and corrupt as Trump could be elected. Indeed, I never thought that the Republican Party, the Party of Stupid according to Sen. Hatch, would ever be SO STUPID as to actually elect Trump president.
I was wrong, and I freely admit it.
Live and learn, I guess ....
DocBarrister
Re: 2020 Elections - A Reckoning
Posted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 11:00 pm
by DocBarrister
a fan wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:03 pm
Ok, so I have to ask--who is your candidate of choice, Doc?
Well, let me be blunt and say that there are some good candidates among the Democrats, but no great ones. There are no Bill Clintons or Barack Obamas in the crowd.
And none of them really pass the “Beer Test” with flying colors ... that is, Americans usually elect as president the candidate with whom they most prefer to share a beer.
Having said that, I think women, millennials, Latinos, Asian Americans, African Americans, urbanites, suburbanites, and educated Americans will prefer having a beer with Kamala Harris over Donald Trump. That’s a winning coalition.
So ... Senator Kamala Harris has my support. But I will vote for any Democrat over Donald Trump in the general election.
DocBarrister
Re: 2020 Elections - A Reckoning
Posted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:24 am
by old salt
Re: 2020 Elections - A Reckoning
Posted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 8:51 am
by ABV 8.3%
jhu72 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:36 pm
HooDat wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:26 pm
jhu72 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:18 pm
Why is Warren more likely to lose worse than HRC?
because Warren has all of HRC's personality shortcomings without the shiv hidden in her sleeve.
She is a smart woman and Trump country doesn't like smart woman. Got that. Same as Hillary. So how does she lose worse than Hillary? Numbers don't add up that I can see. She is not ignoring the midwest states and is saying things the working class in those states should like to hear. She also will not have the stay at home problem that Hillary had among the democratic base - she motivates them - or Trump does.
Is South Carolina Trump country? How in the world DID they ever elect a brown INDIAN WOMAN.
Re: 2020 Elections - A Reckoning
Posted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 8:57 am
by tech37
DMac wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2019 10:42 pm
Geezuz H, 72, that's a mighty tall order, particularly when given to one who doesn't pay all that much attention to the whole mess. Without google I'd have a hard time listing more than a few of our Presidential hopefuls from the D side. I view the whole lot (politicians in general) pretty much as I do magicians. One lot does sleight of hand, the other sleight of tounge. Ultimately I'd agree with a fan, lot of trickery and words but all in all everything remains the same, and what's wrong was the other letter's fault.
Policies (shmolicies) aside, likeability factor (it's only fall ball at this point) only.
Biden...just not seeing it, comes across to me as a deflating balloon. Joe should be put out to pasture.
Kamala...angry person, sharp tounge. She might to be able to stand up to Trump but he might be able to get her so riled up she loses it.
Tulsi...very likeable and sharp. Think she could stand up to Trump just fine too. Could get interesting if Spurz goes down the "your service in Iraq was just chickensh*t stuff and you're no hero" path with her.
Warren...see tech37. HRC, the sequil.
That's a start, will get back to the list later.
Oh, and you really need to up the bar in people whose opinion you value.
Good assessment DMac. I think Tulsi could have the best shot as well but will she even make the next round of debates? Too bad some of the more moderate, level-headed, pragmatic voices among the cast won't be moving on. It's a shame for the country and certainly the Dem Party too.
Re: 2020 Elections - A Reckoning
Posted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 9:00 am
by ABV 8.3%
DMac wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:45 pm
Doc's right, as usual? See Her Holiness 2016.
Agree with tech37 on Warren, not chance...Bernie either (I like Bernie).
Ds better come up with someone...Biden sure as hell isn't the guy.
Hillaryous is waiting in the wings. October surprise.
The idiots in DC just can't keep their mouths shut when out on the town. Too stupid to discuss "topics" in man caves. Del Frico's is NOT a man cave.