FanLax Forum Poll

[HooDat]

I like the idea of rewarding wins any time of the year and making losses count. If that means teams will jump all over the place for a while, so be it. Have fun.

hear, hear!!

[Matnum PI]

... First, they were ranked anywhere from one to three in the media, coaches, and Q poll, and the other two teams ranked there lost...

... I didn't have to move them up too far from where I thought they should be before the games were played last weekend... For me UVA got the top spot by default.

I hear it...

[FanLax Computer]

If this poll was a pure meritocracy based on each team's Ws and Ls and the quality of those Ws and Ls, this is what your lists would look like...

[Rank, Games Played, Win Percentage, Strength of Schedule]

– Team GP W% SOS
1 Johns Hopkins 2 100% 5
2 Syracuse 3 100% 40
3 Loyola 1 100% 1
4 Merrimack 3 100% 44
5 Rutgers 2 100% 34
6 UMass 1 100% 8
7 Navy 3 100% 52
8 Villanova 1 100% 17
9 Robert Morris 1 100% 18
10 Virginia 1 100% 24
11 Air Force 2 50% 7
12 Ohio State 2 100% 48
13 Jacksonville 2 50% 9
14 Maryland 2 50% 10
15 Duke 3 67% 30
16 Bryant 1 100% 34
17 Vermont 2 50% 13
18 Lehigh 1 100% 37
19 Delaware 1 100% 44
20 Binghamton 1 100% 46
21 North Carolina 1 100% 49
22 Manhattan 1 100% 50
23 Towson 1 100% 51
24 VMI 2 100% 58
25 Saint Joseph's 1 100% 54

[TheBigIguana]

I was reading the IL poll and thinking how pointless it is when 6 Ivy teams are ranked and they're all 0-0.

Also Hopkins winning 2 games is an automatic top 10. I'm surprised Syracuse isn't there too tbh.

Are you suggesting they all drop out because they haven't played yet? Notre Dame, too?

Hopkins two wins are more impressive than Syracuse's 3, though I personally had SU in my top 10. But just barely.

I'm suggesting not doing a poll yet

I did not submit this week because, really who the heck knows at this point?

Yeah I started and got to Cornell/Princeton/Yale and realized I had no idea

[ICGrad]

Second, while I think there are four or five teams that are about as good if not better than UVA, ND and my four Ivy high picks have not played yet. UVA did win, albeit in hardly a decisive manner, against a solid opponent.

That was more or less my reasoning too.

Sure, they may have struggled to put Michigan away, but they did manage to put them away. Michigan isn't an easy out, and winning the critical February games counts.

If one of the Ivies or a similar team had had an extremely convincing win against an opponent of roughly equal quality, I would have considered jumping them. But they didn't so...

I considered putting Hopkins #1, but felt it was a bit premature for that just yet, and figured with their two games this week they may just earn it yet.

So yeah, Virginia basically kind of nabbed the top spot by default.

[Matnum PI]

I hear it and... Still strikes me as odd that *everyone* selected them #1. There has to be some group think in play here, no?

For the record, group think isn't necessarily a bad thing. Not necessarily...

[HGK]

I voted UVA 1, Maryland 10 and Georgetown 13. Do i think UVA can stay #1 on MMDW? It’s certainly possible. Do I think Maryland is the 10th best and Georgetown 13th best teams in country at year end? I don’t. But i tried to vote on what i saw rather than what i think - which was tough!

[HooDat]

I hear it and... Still strikes me as odd that *everyone* selected them #1. There has to be some group think in play here, no?

For the record, group think isn't necessarily a bad thing. Not necessarily...

I have two arguments against the potential for group think:

1) Given their roster, coaching staff and win in week 1 - who would you put ahead of UVA at this point in the season? Like HGK points out, are we forecasting end of year seeding or current ranking?

2) I am not sure there has been enough communication among the pollsters to facilitate "group think".

The variety of methods for how to treat the teams who haven't played yet is interesting to me. It seems like virtually everyone (including the media polls) decided that the "top" spot had to go to someone who played a game. From there, the Media pollsters were more than willing to round out the top five with teams that haven't played yet, while our FanLax pollsters were more mixed in how they let the "eye test" of the roster determine the rest of their rankings.

[HooDat]

coaches poll was also a mixed bag - seems to parallel the FanLax poll more, at least in terms of treatment of the teams who have yet to play.

[Matnum PI]

1)...who would you put ahead of UVA at this point in the season? Like HGK points out, are we forecasting end of year seeding or current ranking?

JHU and Loyola. Current Rankings.

2) I am not sure there has been enough communication among the pollsters to facilitate "group think".

I think, though this may not be accurate, that the media has a heavy influence on many, many lacrosse fans.

[HooDat]

1)...who would you put ahead of UVA at this point in the season? Like HGK points out, are we forecasting end of year seeding or current ranking?

JHU and Loyola. Current Rankings.

2) I am not sure there has been enough communication among the pollsters to facilitate "group think".

I think, though this may not be accurate, that the media has a heavy influence on many, many lacrosse fans.

I suspect you are correct. Even more, I suspect that pre-season expectations are the primary bias taking place - including with the media. The UVA roster is loaded, including 3 on the Tewarraton watch list and the lead contender in Shellenberger. Not to disparage any other players, but the only critical loss to graduation was Moore and there are multiple potential AA's looking to secure his spot.

This is a long way of saying that coming into the season, virtually everyone believed UVA was a top 3 team (I doubt anyone had them outside their top 5). So leaving UVA at #1 or moving them up a notch or 2 when UMD and G'town lost was easy to justify.

[Matnum PI]

... I suspect that pre-season expectations are the primary bias taking place... The UVA roster is loaded, including 3 on the Tewarraton watch list... virtually everyone believed UVA was a top 3 team...

I hear you and... I just think the media says, These are the ten best players in NCAA Lacrosse, the ten best teams, ten best coaches, etc. and we accept these as all but facts. When, in reality, if I said this, everyone would say, Who are you?!? And my point is, Who is any human being who declares A, B, and C as the incumbents for 2023? Especially when the relevant teams haven't played more than a game let alone 0 games. We need a baseline to work from and... I think we accept what the media says as a big part of our baseline. Obviously we need some form of baseline. Without it, UNC would be Mercer 25-3 and we'd say, WOW! UNC is REALLY good! 25-3?! Obviously we can't ignore 2022. Especially with teams have returning players. But returning players is much closer to a fact than IL saying, UMD, G'town and UVA are the 2023 cream of the crop. I just think we may lean to heavily on media facts as opposed to facts facts. And... I think that influenced the unanimous UVA as #1 vote.

[HGK]

I’d imagine if the IL had played it would not have been unanimous. This Monday’s poll should see some balance once everyone has played.

[lorin]

If this poll was a pure meritocracy based on each team's Ws and Ls and the quality of those Ws and Ls, this is what your lists would look like...

[Rank, Games Played, Win Percentage, Strength of Schedule]

– Team GP W% SOS
1 Johns Hopkins 2 100% 5
2 Syracuse 3 100% 40
3 Loyola 1 100% 1
4 Merrimack 3 100% 44
5 Rutgers 2 100% 34
6 UMass 1 100% 8
7 Navy 3 100% 52
8 Villanova 1 100% 17
9 Robert Morris 1 100% 18
10 Virginia 1 100% 24
11 Air Force 2 50% 7
12 Ohio State 2 100% 48
13 Jacksonville 2 50% 9
14 Maryland 2 50% 10
15 Duke 3 67% 30
16 Bryant 1 100% 34
17 Vermont 2 50% 13
18 Lehigh 1 100% 37
19 Delaware 1 100% 44
20 Binghamton 1 100% 46
21 North Carolina 1 100% 49
22 Manhattan 1 100% 50
23 Towson 1 100% 51
24 VMI 2 100% 58
25 Saint Joseph's 1 100% 54

So stupid , Merrimack 4 Lmao, Cuse 2 lol,

[HooDat]

I’d imagine if the IL had played it would not have been unanimous. This Monday’s poll should see some balance once everyone has played.

I agree

So stupid , Merrimack 4 Lmao, Cuse 2 lol,

While very few people would argue that the season will end with the FanLax Computer's current rankings in place - the fact of the matter is that Cuse has beaten every opponent they have faced, and they have faced as many or more than any other team in D1. For that matter so has Merrimack....

So No, it is not stupid - it is the output of a math equation, the logic of which has been fully disclosed. Why is that so hard to accept?

[Matnum PI]

So stupid , Merrimack 4 Lmao, Cuse 2 lol,

While very few people would argue that the season will end with the FanLax Computer's current rankings in place - the fact of the matter is that Cuse has beaten every opponent they have faced, and they have faced as many or more than any other team in D1. For that matter so has Merrimack....

So No, it is not stupid - it is the output of a math equation, the logic of which has been fully disclosed. Why is that so hard to accept?

I'm going to restrain from answering your final question. With that said, I don't think a 2023 Final Four of JHU, SU, Loyola, and Merrimack is so crazy. Merrimack is definitely the craziest of the four but, every season, there's 2-3 powers that have previously won a National C'ship and then an underdog. Loyola being one of those underdogs not so long ago. Albany, Delaware, Towson, etc. JHU, SU, Loyola, and Merrimack... We don't have nearly enough info but... Not so crazy.

[Farfromgeneva]

I’d imagine if the IL had played it would not have been unanimous. This Monday’s poll should see some balance once everyone has played.

I agree

So stupid , Merrimack 4 Lmao, Cuse 2 lol,

While very few people would argue that the season will end with the FanLax Computer's current rankings in place - the fact of the matter is that Cuse has beaten every opponent they have faced, and they have faced as many or more than any other team in D1. For that matter so has Merrimack....

So No, it is not stupid - it is the output of a math equation, the logic of which has been fully disclosed. Why is that so hard to accept?

Because opinions are worth more to some than explicit and transparent process driven methodological systems. Not my view even if I find that we sometimes "over optimize" (technically definitionally impossible but you should get my point about not leaving slack in systems) but this a consistent refrain from that poster and he is going to continue to complain about it despite knowing the methodology because it's important to him that everyone knows how he feels.

[HooDat]

Because opinions are worth more to some than explicit and transparent process driven methodological systems. Not my view even if I find that we sometimes "over optimize" (technically definitionally impossible but you should get my point about not leaving slack in systems) but this a consistent refrain from that poster and he is going to continue to complain about it despite knowing the methodology because it's important to him that everyone knows how he feels.

like all models - they are tools that when properly designed and used, provide insight to a decision maker. As a finance guy, I am all for models - as long as you don't go believing them!

[oldbartman]

Because opinions are worth more to some than explicit and transparent process driven methodological systems. Not my view even if I find that we sometimes "over optimize" (technically definitionally impossible but you should get my point about not leaving slack in systems) but this a consistent refrain from that poster and he is going to continue to complain about it despite knowing the methodology because it's important to him that everyone knows how he feels.

like all models - they are tools that when properly designed and used, provide insight to a decision maker. As a finance guy, I am all for models - as long as you don't go believing them!

Kind of like "quantitative research".... But then again, Citadel has crushed it on the Street.

[Matnum PI]

like all models - they are tools that when properly designed and used, provide insight to a decision maker. As a finance guy, I am all for models - as long as you don't go believing them!