Johns Hopkins 2020

[Henpecked]

Meanwhile the attention needy continue to chirp and duck

So yeah, I’m allowed to make a joke about how the majority of your posts are unreadable, holier-than-thou blather that seem like they were dictated by a toddler to someone trying to type in a Philly Phanatic costume.

This might be the single funniest line I have read on this forum in years. Hurtful. But funny.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

Meanwhile the attention needy continue to chirp and duck

So yeah, I’m allowed to make a joke about how the majority of your posts are unreadable, holier-than-thou blather that seem like they were dictated by a toddler to someone trying to type in a Philly Phanatic costume.

This might be the single funniest line I have read on this forum in years. Hurtful. But funny.

On the Hopkins thread, we eat our young and octogenarians.

[laxxygilmore]

"Tommy LaSagna" in tune-up mode...

[DocBarrister]

Meanwhile the attention needy continue to chirp and duck

So yeah, I’m allowed to make a joke about how the majority of your posts are unreadable, holier-than-thou blather that seem like they were dictated by a toddler to someone trying to type in a Philly Phanatic costume.

This might be the single funniest line I have read on this forum in years. Hurtful. But funny.

On the Hopkins thread, we eat our young and octogenarians.

Good heavens ... O Canada/Old Salt is in his 80s?

Can I take out a life insurance policy on him?!? (Probably three decades too late ... darn. ).

DocBarrister

[44WeWantMore]

First, OC and OS have to be two different typists.

Second, I once asked rhetorically on the old LP board (in response to the assertion that conservatives would never vote for a woman) for any conservative under 70 to name his favourite Prime Minister. A user with the same avatar as OS replied that he was a conservative younger than 70, though he did give the response I expected from one over 70. I interpreted it as his attempt at curmudgeonly humour.

[DocBarrister]

By the way, anyone know what happened to #38?

DocBarrister

[viper]

Btw, you left out that the player in question can't hit water falling out of a boat with that shot of his.

A fan - you know I buy into the talent issue more than some Hopkins posters but I have to agree with HF16 on this one - Zinn's shooting percentage was also skewed by the low number in the denominator - if he scores 2 more goals his shooting percentage is likely near or at 30% and then he's in the discussion as a sharpshooter from the mid-field? No - not at all - same works the other way - sample size is too small to pull out the water/boat saying.

I also have to agree with HF16 (and I don't always) on the playing time issue. My perception - he was given residence in the back yard next to the Petro family dog after botching the easy pass and getting his lunch money stolen leading to the first Syracuse goal and it took a long time to get back in the house. The issue? There was no plan B. Doesn't matter what Zinn did or did not do - the alternatives did not produce at all were never going to produce and did not have anywhere near his athletic ability. And then you risked potentially losing him in the portal. The mid-field - even if Zinn has a great year - is an identifiable weakness on the team - did I mention Hopkins 1st mid-field combined for 69 POINTS? With Keogh either out for the year or recovering from an apparent bad knee sprain - the mid-field can sustain no further losses - where would this season be if Zinn wasn't around?

Edit - went back and actually looked - Zinn took 28 shots so 2 more goals would have been an easy 25% calculation. Point still holds

I think Hopkins has the personnel to have three 30-point scorers on the first midfield line. See no reason why DeSimone, Concannon, and Zinn can’t score 30 points each.

DocBarrister

5th year guy has averaged 18 points
3rd year guy has averaged 17.5 points
2nd year guy had 9 points last year


Here’s my prediction - one player of those three reaches 30

Yep. So, the 5th and 3rd year guy need to step up and score one additional point a game. I understand that is not as easy as it sounds, but it’s something that could be achieved with some hard work. Put in some Joey-Epstein-style-effort and I think they have a shot at scoring one more point a game. Could be something as simple as putting a few more shots on goal each game.

As for the 2nd year guy, put him on the first middie line and that should triple his touches.

It’s very much in reach. Are these guys willing to put in the work to get there? I have to believe Joey Epstein was elected a sophomore captain as much for his work ethic as his 73 points.

30-30-30 in 2020

DocBarrister

If you get two middies with 30+ points, that’s very good. 3 is almost unheard of.

Unless they are "transformational" of course.......

[51percentcorn]

I usually do not disagree with TLD - but in this day and age 90 points from the first mid-field is pretty far down the list in terms of making it to the final four:
UVA - 52/49/35
Yale - Tigh 47/Cessa 33/Combo of Tevlin/Danigellis 56
Duke - 57/39/Combo of Seau/Quigley/Lowrie - all who started 6 or more games 57
Penn State - 53/51/36

AND for all those teams only Smith and Montgomery of Duke made it into the Top 3 in scoring for their team
which means those teams' attacks were generally putting up video game numbers

30-30-30 as unlikely as it may be for Hopkins - won't get the job done

[DocBarrister]

I usually do not disagree with TLD - but in this day and age 90 points from the first mid-field is pretty far down the list in terms of making it to the final four:
UVA - 52/49/35
Yale - Tigh 47/Cessa 33/Combo of Tevlin/Danigellis 56
Duke - 57/39/Combo of Seau/Quigley/Lowrie - all who started 6 or more games 57
Penn State - 53/51/36

AND for all those teams only Smith and Montgomery of Duke made it into the Top 3 in scoring for their team
which means those teams' attacks were generally putting up video game numbers

30-30-30 as unlikely as it may be for Hopkins - won't get the job done

Well, I think your post suggests that 30-30-30 is not an unrealistic or unobtainable goal.

Plus, if the attack is Epstein-Smith-Williams, I think the Hopkins offense can put up some respectable numbers next season.

30-30-30 in 2020

DocBarrister

[ohmilax34]

I usually do not disagree with TLD - but in this day and age 90 points from the first mid-field is pretty far down the list in terms of making it to the final four:
UVA - 52/49/35
Yale - Tigh 47/Cessa 33/Combo of Tevlin/Danigellis 56
Duke - 57/39/Combo of Seau/Quigley/Lowrie - all who started 6 or more games 57
Penn State - 53/51/36

AND for all those teams only Smith and Montgomery of Duke made it into the Top 3 in scoring for their team
which means those teams' attacks were generally putting up video game numbers

30-30-30 as unlikely as it may be for Hopkins - won't get the job done

Well, I think your post suggests that 30-30-30 is not an unrealistic or unobtainable goal.

Plus, if the attack is Epstein-Smith-Williams, I think the Hopkins offense can put up some respectable numbers next season.

30-30-30 in 2020

DocBarrister

On a points/game basis, the difference isn't too bad. UVA is at 6.80 ppg and JHU is at 5.63. That doesn't include Desimone, whose number I expect to be much better in 2020. If the JHU offense shows good improvement in 2020, which I think it will, everyone's numbers will improve, and I don't think an improvement of 1.2 points per game over 3 players is unattainable.

Syracuse's top line of middies scored 33/33/24, which looks like it's considerably lower than the final four teams, but on a ppg basis, the difference between SU and UVA's first middies is less than .4 points per game. And the 4th middie on Syracuse (Buttermore) had a better season than UVA's 4th middie, whoever that may be.

[jhu06]

Prouty has 3 years now, Matt Narewski 2. The attack w williams a sr, epstein, forry/concannon srs, baskin/connor jrs-that's a ton of experience that at the very least should be able to generate possessions and then execute them efficiently. That midfield doesn't have all america potential and maybe not even all big ten potential, but they should after years of playing and practicing together be able to keep the pressure off the defense/goaltending situation by putting together consistent possessions. If keough is out I assume stagnitta/mabett will get the first looks but neither has shown anything. The 3rd attack position and marrs spot on manup is also worth watching. attack seems to be the one area where petro has felt confident giving a freshman a look early.

The High school uphoff comes from is widely regarded as having one of the best hs athletic departments in the country producing kids like NFL's matt stafford, mlbs clayton kershaw.

[ohmilax34]

I usually do not disagree with TLD - but in this day and age 90 points from the first mid-field is pretty far down the list in terms of making it to the final four:
UVA - 52/49/35
Yale - Tigh 47/Cessa 33/Combo of Tevlin/Danigellis 56
Duke - 57/39/Combo of Seau/Quigley/Lowrie - all who started 6 or more games 57
Penn State - 53/51/36

AND for all those teams only Smith and Montgomery of Duke made it into the Top 3 in scoring for their team
which means those teams' attacks were generally putting up video game numbers

30-30-30 as unlikely as it may be for Hopkins - won't get the job done

Well, I think your post suggests that 30-30-30 is not an unrealistic or unobtainable goal.

Plus, if the attack is Epstein-Smith-Williams, I think the Hopkins offense can put up some respectable numbers next season.

30-30-30 in 2020

DocBarrister

On a points/game basis, the difference isn't too bad. UVA is at 6.80 ppg and JHU is at 5.63. That doesn't include Desimone, whose number I expect to be much better in 2020. If the JHU offense shows good improvement in 2020, which I think it will, everyone's numbers will improve, and I don't think an improvement of 1.2 points per game over 3 players is unattainable.

Syracuse's top line of middies scored 33/33/24, which looks like it's considerably lower than the final four teams, but on a ppg basis, the difference between SU and UVA's first middies is less than .4 points per game. And the 4th middie on Syracuse (Buttermore) had a better season than UVA's 4th middie, whoever that may be.

A point I didn't make regarding Syracuse's middies, or offense in general, has been made a bunch of times, which is that the attack hasn't been elite for a number of years. 2020 might be a little different for them. I think JHU should have an elite attack. Epstein and Williams both have the talent to be all american.

[Typical Lax Dad]

I usually do not disagree with TLD - but in this day and age 90 points from the first mid-field is pretty far down the list in terms of making it to the final four:
UVA - 52/49/35
Yale - Tigh 47/Cessa 33/Combo of Tevlin/Danigellis 56
Duke - 57/39/Combo of Seau/Quigley/Lowrie - all who started 6 or more games 57
Penn State - 53/51/36

AND for all those teams only Smith and Montgomery of Duke made it into the Top 3 in scoring for their team
which means those teams' attacks were generally putting up video game numbers

30-30-30 as unlikely as it may be for Hopkins - won't get the job done

That is a lot of games. I am assuming regular season play which is needed to get you to the post season. 2.5PPg for a middie is pretty good. 3 PPG is 1st team AA level. Kyle Harrison's averaged 2.75 PPG his senior year and won the Tewy... . Sergio Perkovic reached that level once at 2.73. Conor Buczek was close to 3 ppg each year. Tom Schreiber was well above it. If Hopkins makes it to the final 4, 3 guys getting to 30 is not a huge leap as that might be 18 games. 3 middies averaging 2 points a game is not a walk in the park.

[wgdsr]

attack seems to be the one area where petro has felt confident giving a freshman a look early.

freshmen have been getting looks early at maybe every position except goalie @ hopkins.

[HopFan16]

The Jays had 311 points (goals + assists) last year, 19.44 per game. Only 70 of those are gone (including Keogh's 13), so the team returns 77% of its point production, which I believe is well above average.

It returns one All-American at attack and perhaps another if he plays anything like he did over the second half of 2019. Williams averaged 2.4 pts per game over the first 8 games vs. 3.4 over the final 8 games. If he can avoid another slow start, he'll be back in the AA conversation, especially with defenses keyed in on Epstein. I don't see why there's any reason he can't get to 60+ this year without Marr in the lineup taking up space on that left side. Williams is going to move around a lot and benefit from Epstein's second year as quarterback.

Forry had 26 pts as a midfielder, playing roughly half the possessions? Maybe slightly more than half. If he's the full time attackman, I'd expect him to get to at least 40 as Marr's "replacement" (yes I know their games aren't identical).

It'd be really lovely if the midfield could pose ANYTHING of a dodging/shooting threat to take the pressure off the attack somewhat, but in any event, the offense likely isn't going to be a major problem. Figuring out who the hell can cover Michael Sowers, Chris Gray, and Grant Ament is going to be a problem.

Without Foley, defensive foot speed is lacking. Rapine and Colwell are solid defenders but neither can keep up with the guys listed above. That's only going to compound any issues caused by the SSDMs and goaltending. I am marginally hopeful that we might get better play in those areas in 2020, but it's just that...a hope. Recent history suggests that it is unwise to have this hope.

[tech37]

The Jays had 311 points (goals + assists) last year, 19.44 per game. Only 70 of those are gone (including Keogh's 13), so the team returns 77% of its point production, which I believe is well above average.

It returns one All-American at attack and perhaps another if he plays anything like he did over the second half of 2019. Williams averaged 2.4 pts per game over the first 8 games vs. 3.4 over the final 8 games. If he can avoid another slow start, he'll be back in the AA conversation, especially with defenses keyed in on Epstein. I don't see why there's any reason he can't get to 60+ this year without Marr in the lineup taking up space on that left side. Williams is going to move around a lot and benefit from Epstein's second year as quarterback.

Forry had 26 pts as a midfielder, playing roughly half the possessions? Maybe slightly more than half. If he's the full time attackman, I'd expect him to get to at least 40 as Marr's "replacement" (yes I know their games aren't identical).

It'd be really lovely if the midfield could pose ANYTHING of a dodging/shooting threat to take the pressure off the attack somewhat, but in any event, the offense likely isn't going to be a major problem. Figuring out who the hell can cover Michael Sowers, Chris Gray, Grant Ament, and Chase Scanlan is going to be a problem.

Without Foley, defensive foot speed is lacking. Rapine and Colwell are solid defenders but neither can keep up with the guys listed above. That's only going to compound any issues caused by the SSDMs and goaltending. I am marginally hopeful that we might get better play in those areas in 2020, but it's just that...a hope. Recent history suggests that it is unwise to have this hope.

Fixed!

[Typical Lax Dad]

The Jays had 311 points (goals + assists) last year, 19.44 per game. Only 70 of those are gone (including Keogh's 13), so the team returns 77% of its point production, which I believe is well above average.

It returns one All-American at attack and perhaps another if he plays anything like he did over the second half of 2019. Williams averaged 2.4 pts per game over the first 8 games vs. 3.4 over the final 8 games. If he can avoid another slow start, he'll be back in the AA conversation, especially with defenses keyed in on Epstein. I don't see why there's any reason he can't get to 60+ this year without Marr in the lineup taking up space on that left side. Williams is going to move around a lot and benefit from Epstein's second year as quarterback.

Forry had 26 pts as a midfielder, playing roughly half the possessions? Maybe slightly more than half. If he's the full time attackman, I'd expect him to get to at least 40 as Marr's "replacement" (yes I know their games aren't identical).

It'd be really lovely if the midfield could pose ANYTHING of a dodging/shooting threat to take the pressure off the attack somewhat, but in any event, the offense likely isn't going to be a major problem. Figuring out who the hell can cover Michael Sowers, Chris Gray, Grant Ament, and Chase Scanlan is going to be a problem.

Without Foley, defensive foot speed is lacking. Rapine and Colwell are solid defenders but neither can keep up with the guys listed above. That's only going to compound any issues caused by the SSDMs and goaltending. I am marginally hopeful that we might get better play in those areas in 2020, but it's just that...a hope. Recent history suggests that it is unwise to have this hope.

Fixed!

Scanlan is a handful. Different than those other three. He hunts goals.... A goal scorer.

[44WeWantMore]

I usually do not disagree with TLD - but in this day and age 90 points from the first mid-field is pretty far down the list in terms of making it to the final four:
UVA - 52/49/35
Yale - Tigh 47/Cessa 33/Combo of Tevlin/Danigellis 56
Duke - 57/39/Combo of Seau/Quigley/Lowrie - all who started 6 or more games 57
Penn State - 53/51/36

AND for all those teams only Smith and Montgomery of Duke made it into the Top 3 in scoring for their team
which means those teams' attacks were generally putting up video game numbers

30-30-30 as unlikely as it may be for Hopkins - won't get the job done

That is a lot of games. I am assuming regular season play which is needed to get you to the post season. 2.5PPg for a middie is pretty good. 3 PPG is 1st team AA level. Kyle Harrison's averaged 2.75 PPG his senior year and won the Tewy... . Sergio Perkovic reached that level once at 2.73. Conor Buczek was close to 3 ppg each year. Tom Schreiber was well above it. If Hopkins makes it to the final 4, 3 guys getting to 30 is not a huge leap as that might be 18 games. 3 middies averaging 2 points a game is not a walk in the park.

Unlike a lot of OMids, Harrison took face-offs, and didn't just get caught on defense, he deliberately went back to play defense at crucial points in a game.

[Typical Lax Dad]

I usually do not disagree with TLD - but in this day and age 90 points from the first mid-field is pretty far down the list in terms of making it to the final four:
UVA - 52/49/35
Yale - Tigh 47/Cessa 33/Combo of Tevlin/Danigellis 56
Duke - 57/39/Combo of Seau/Quigley/Lowrie - all who started 6 or more games 57
Penn State - 53/51/36

AND for all those teams only Smith and Montgomery of Duke made it into the Top 3 in scoring for their team
which means those teams' attacks were generally putting up video game numbers

30-30-30 as unlikely as it may be for Hopkins - won't get the job done

That is a lot of games. I am assuming regular season play which is needed to get you to the post season. 2.5PPg for a middie is pretty good. 3 PPG is 1st team AA level. Kyle Harrison's averaged 2.75 PPG his senior year and won the Tewy... . Sergio Perkovic reached that level once at 2.73. Conor Buczek was close to 3 ppg each year. Tom Schreiber was well above it. If Hopkins makes it to the final 4, 3 guys getting to 30 is not a huge leap as that might be 18 games. 3 middies averaging 2 points a game is not a walk in the park.

Unlike a lot of OMids, Harrison took face-offs, and didn't just get caught on defense, he deliberately went back to play defense at crucial points in a game.

Yes. I know. He and Currier were the two last great real multi dimensional middies. Kyle was better facing off and Currier was better on GBs.

[jhu06]

if the schedule is the same, you start the season with rebuilding towson/loyola squads where you'd hope that the experience on our offensive end, at the x, and the 2 returning close d would be enough to overcome the sh-tshow which is likely to be the goaltending/ssdm/lsm/foley replacement search. Then you get to a rebuilding unc team, a dangerous princeton team that just lost its oc. You'd think that there's enough experience w/our guys vs early rivals struggling to find themselves to win 3/4+establish the new faces going into the cuse matchup.