njbill wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:06 pm
Used to kind of like Brett Baer, but his toadyism in the last couple of days has really been at an 11. A bit ugly last night arguing with the Fox decision desk.
That is totally unfair. FNC called AZ long before any other news outlet (even the AP & NYT), including all the other tv networks.
He knew there would be massive pushback calling it with that much vote uncounted, had them explain their decision, then defended them.
Too bad the other nerworks weren't that hard on their pollsters who suppressed the vote for months before the election with their bogus predictions.
interesting. trump needs to get 52% - 58% in arizona with the rest of the votes to be counted. supposed to be 600k plus. they just got 57% with the first data dump, which was 82 k, or about 13-14% of the total. next one up is at 12 or 12.30 a.m.
That was Maricopa, 74k which went 44/30 Trump but a lot of the rest are Pima Co which won’t be as kind to Trump
a number of interviews said maricopa was over 400k (i heard 425) of the 600k left before the first dump. maricopa is 60% of the state total, so this leftover represents more than their state average.
there's plenty of other moving parts, from this being last minute drop offs (pseudo in person, which r's crushed in maricopa), vs. mail ins from days ago, etc. trump's behind and desperate. we will see how it goes.
This is what I gleaned from the Arizona election official’s interview with CNN.
340,000 remaining in Maricopa county (Biden leads)
46,000 Pima (Biden)
18,000 Yuma (Trump)
1000 La Paz (Trump)
13,000 Coconino (Biden)
CNN did not go around all of the counties so I suspect this list is not complete. I think they hit most of the counties, however.
She said that what is left are the mail ballots dropped off Monday and Tuesday. Arizona does not count late arriving ballots. So it sounds like they have all of the ballots they will be getting.
Said the next dump will be at 12:30 a.m. Eastern time tonite.
Next dump after that will be 9 PM eastern time tomorrow and at the same time each day thereafter until they are done.
Fox decision desk guy said he treats these dropped off ballots the same way as he has been treating all mail or drop off ballots.
Agree with the above comments, though, that the earlier dump tonight seemed to disproportionately favor Trump. Disproportionately in the sense that he got a higher percentage than he has been getting in Maricopa county.
njbill wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:06 pm
Used to kind of like Brett Baer, but his toadyism in the last couple of days has really been at an 11. A bit ugly last night arguing with the Fox decision desk.
That is totally unfair. FNC called AZ long before any other news outlet (even the AP & NYT), including all the other tv networks.
He knew there would be massive pushback calling it with that much vote uncounted, had them explain their decision, then defended them.
On this part of your post, I agree. I thought it was actually quite illuminating and very useful to have the decision desk nerd explain the call, the rationale and the confidence level, etc. I happened to have tuned in shortly before that interview and caught it live, and was quite pleased to have it explained...as much of the other Fox coverage was remarkably uninformative about the dynamics of what to expect as different sorts of votes got counted in different orders in different regions...CNN and MSNBC did a far better job of explaining those probable dynamics ahead of them actually happening. So, expectations were far better tempered along the way.
Your other comments about pollsters suppressing votes...
Re: 2020 Elections - Trumplicons Seem Dug in Like A Tic.
RedFromMI wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:03 pm
But there is only a tiny chance there for Trump as the margin is something like 3% in AZ.
I think the issue is that the final votes are mail-ins and Biden heavy.
Also, I think Nevada is announcing tomorrow at 9 AM.
In Nevada, very close but predominantly from Vegas and Reno, heavy Dem areas.
Could go the other way, but doesn't sound like it.
i guess you didn't read anything i posted.
In this exchange?
Didn't mean to ignore you or anything you posted...I've been focused on some business matters and wasn't following posts carefully, so may have missed some or skimmed past some.
Re: 2020 Elections - Red Mirage fading for DtC?
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:38 pm
by Matnum PI
National vote total, as of 10:31 p.m. ET, Wednesday:
Biden: 71,522,441
Trump: 67,995,547
Re: 2020 Elections - Trumplicons Seem Dug in Like A Tic.
so:
they've counted all mail ins to total that came in before election day.
what's left:
- mail ins that arrived on e-day or after (they have another week)
- provisionals
provisionals are largely those that registered as a voter up until and election day, including people moving jurisdictions. supposedly, that was 10s of thousands statewide (a transient state). then election officials need to check that they are actually state residents, so some kind of lag.
nevada provided 3 updates from about 5 a.m. est on... they went from 25 k biden advantage to about 9, then 7.6k. then stopped and said no updates for 24 hours. in between those updates, based on what's left, none were mail ins. presumably, a lot or all were provisionals.
i believe mail ins include people coming to polls to drop off ballots sent out (sent to everyone in the state). so late mail in ballots in, who knows who they favor, even in clark county. people do or should know they could mail in and be accepted for over a week, as long as sent in nov 3. 70% of the electorate is las vegas' county.
so tomorrow late a.m.,they will include nov 3 (and probably 4) mail ins, and probably much, most or all of what's left on provisionals. if trump doesn't cull the lead bigly (even from 7.6k) by tomorrow morning release, mail ins won't cover him afterwards. imo. i know next to nothing about nevada elections and counting in 2020. take with a grain of salt.
ahhh, this one, yeah, I didn't go back that far.
Wasn't ignoring you.
I did not realize the high-value real estate Petey occupies in your head!!
JoeMauer89!
Y'all are broken records with your responses. It's a dice roll of whether it's TDS, "rent free in your head", libt@rds, socialism bad, deep state, etc.
PB was on here for months deliberately trying to piss people off, or if that wasn't his intention, stating insane things he actually believes like all of the above you replied to. It literally takes 2 seconds to copy and paste his outlandish statements as he makes them.
It's like watching cult followers in a documentary. But hitch your wagon right on up
Re: 2020 Elections - Red Mirage fading for DtC?
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:40 pm
by Matnum PI
Data for states yet to be called by @NBCNews, as of 8:45 p.m. ET:
old salt wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:37 pmThat is totally unfair. FNC called AZ long before any other news outlet (even the AP & NYT), including all the other tv networks.
He knew there would be massive pushback calling it with that much vote uncounted, had them explain their decision, then defended them.
On this part of your post, I agree. I thought it was actually quite illuminating and very useful to have the decision desk nerd explain the call, the rationale and the confidence level, etc. I happened to have tuned in shortly before that interview and caught it live, and was quite pleased to have it explained...as much of the other Fox coverage was remarkably uninformative about the dynamics of what to expect as different sorts of votes got counted in different orders in different regions...CNN and MSNBC did a far better job of explaining those probable dynamics ahead of them actually happening. So, expectations were far better tempered along the way.
Your other comments about pollsters suppressing votes...
2016 - pollsters predicting a higher chance of a Hillary win but Trump within the margin of error = suppressing Clinton votes
2020 - pollsters predicting a higher chance of a Biden win with but Trump within the margin of error (and a landslide within the margin of error) = suppressing Trump votes
It's really hard to keep these arguments straight!
Re: 2020 Elections - Red Mirage fading for DtC?
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:44 pm
by MDlaxfan76
Matnum PI wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:38 pm
National vote total, as of 10:31 p.m. ET, Wednesday:
Biden: 71,522,441
Trump: 67,995,547
With another couple million net likely to fall in CA and NY to Biden.
Re: 2020 Elections - Red Mirage fading for DtC?
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:01 pm
by holmes435
"There is a 100% surefire path to 270 for Trump. Losing 4 pounds"
I did not realize the high-value real estate Petey occupies in your head!!
JoeMauer89!
Y'all are broken records with your responses. It's a dice roll of whether it's TDS, "rent free in your head", libt@rds, socialism bad, deep state, etc.
PB was on here for months deliberately trying to tick people off, or if that wasn't his intention, stating insane things he actually believes like all of the above you replied to. It literally takes 2 seconds to copy and paste his outlandish statements as he makes them.
It's like watching cult followers in a documentary. But hitch your wagon right on up
That’s what this certain cohort does, rolls in attempting to be rational initially and then devolves into their natural state.
Re: 2020 Elections - Red Mirage fading for DtC?
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:09 pm
by CU77
Well, one thing is certain: Kanye West will not be elected president
Just hoping PB comes on here to hate on Marquis. Kanye might as well be a Netjets or Wheels Up "wannabe".
Re: 2020 Elections - Red Mirage fading for DtC?
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 7:17 am
by Matnum PI
5 states still in play. Announcements coming (just in case Trump hereby declaring that all 5 states are his doesn't stand-up in a court of law). I think Nevada is supposed to be this AM.
Re: 2020 Elections - Red Mirage fading for DtC?
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 7:25 am
by ABV 8.3%
Matnum PI wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:38 pm
National vote total, as of 10:31 p.m. ET, Wednesday:
Biden: 71,522,441
Trump: 67,995,547
Not even close to half the USA population. What IS your point?
ABV 8.3% wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:14 am
POTUSA (literally) Obama signed 296 bills into law during the 113th Congress (2013-15)
Obama signed 327 bills into law during 114th Congress, other sessions, Obama signed 284 & 385 bills into law.
That IS 1300 bills signed into law.......including almost one billion $$$ for the 21st Century Cures act for medical research and FDA "reforms".
Minor bills, and you know it. We've discussed this ad nauseum---the bulk of those bills? Renaming Post Offices.
Wow. Groundbreaking Legislation. But sure. Act like it was business as usual.
You're going to act like you don't remember why the Sequester was necessary? Okie-dokie.
"minor bills". more net moving.
Bush-name ONE major bill signed into law by him
Clinton-name ONE major bill signed into law by him
Bush-name ONE major bill signed into law by him
Reagan-name ONE major bill signed into law by him
you want to play this net moving game? great show us all the groundbreaking legislation signed by previous Presidents. You wanna play this game? Opinions?
But, you won't reply. You never do.
just like you ignore what, and who, Mitch's wife IS....and what job she has within the tRump administration. Talk about getting the TAATS media pass.
Matnum PI wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:38 pm
National vote total, as of 10:31 p.m. ET, Wednesday:
Biden: 71,522,441
Trump: 67,995,547
Not even close to half the USA population. What IS your point?
my point IS that Biden has 3.5 million more popular votes than Trump. Just information. In terms of voter turnout, Biden received more votes than any president in history (beating Obama in 2008) and he isn't done...
Matnum PI wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:38 pm
National vote total, as of 10:31 p.m. ET, Wednesday:
Biden: 71,522,441
Trump: 67,995,547
Not even close to half the USA population. What IS your point?
my point IS that Biden has 3.5 million more popular votes than Trump. Just information. In terms of voter turnout, Biden received more votes than any president in history (beating Obama in 2008) and he isn't done...
That is impressive. 71 million votes. That is just in the city of Philadelphia, and they are still counting.
Matnum PI wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:38 pm
National vote total, as of 10:31 p.m. ET, Wednesday:
Biden: 71,522,441
Trump: 67,995,547
Not even close to half the USA population. What IS your point?
my point IS that Biden has 3.5 million more popular votes than Trump. Just information. In terms of voter turnout, Biden received more votes than any president in history (beating Obama in 2008) and he isn't done...
Small nit for us all, especially some of the talking heads in the media where this actually matters in terms of accuracy, viewer comprehension.
Biden is done. Voting is done.
Counting continues.
Legal challenges may or may not continue once the counting is done.
But there's no more voting (a few votes are still being delivered through mail, but de minimus in proportion and these aren't new voting).
Some of the talking heads have fallen into the adoption of Trump's language of using "voting" instead of "counting". They also talk about "batch of votes just came in"...no, the count of another batch just posted...
Trump keeps saying to "stop the voting"...no problem, Donald, the voting is done...the counting continues.
