LaxPower Back-Up Stick

Changing gears a bit. Rankings, and debates, are all over the place at this time of year as some give more weight to what they have seen year to date while others put more weight on what they think will play out. I “think” most would agree, that at this point in the season, it’s not unfair to say there are 10+ teams that seem to have a legitimate shot to win it all if things break right. I am in that 10+ camp myself. But I do think 3 teams, regardless of current record, ranking or resume, seem to have what is needed to take the title - a combination of fogo dominance, major offensive difference maker(s) and defense/goaltending that win games in May.

Towson
Penn State
Yale

Any of 10+ can win but as of right now these three seem best built to win late in May IMO

HGK25 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 03, 2019 8:58 pm Changing gears a bit. Rankings, and debates, are all over the place at this time of year as some give more weight to what they have seen year to date while others put more weight on what they think will play out. I “think” most would agree, that at this point in the season, it’s not unfair to say there are 10+ teams that seem to have a legitimate shot to win it all if things break right. I am in that 10+ camp myself. But I do think 3 teams, regardless of current record, ranking or resume, seem to have what is needed to take the title - a combination of fogo dominance, major offensive difference maker(s) and defense/goaltending that win games in May.

Towson
Penn State
Yale

Any of 10+ can win but as of right now these three seem best built to win late in May IMO

Can't argue as of today but, there's a looong way to go.

Mr3Putt wrote: ↑Sun Mar 03, 2019 7:45 pm I’m missing the Cornell thing. Monday if they win vs Towson- sure. Denver has wins 2 ACC schools

You are preaching to the choir. But, I still think Cornell will be ranked in the top 3. Cornell's ranking will take care of itself.

3/08 vs Penn State
3/10 @ Towson
3/16 @ Yale

They will either be #1 on 3/11 or out of the top 10.

strangely, fogo dominance and top flite goalie play have not really been hallmarks of championship teams when you take them all in total. you get them here and there, but not nearly as often as top offenses or defenses.
obviously, these teams don't have huge holes there typically, but i wouldn't say those have been 2 of the traits consistently seen.

wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun Mar 03, 2019 9:21 pm strangely, fogo dominance and top flite goalie play have not really been hallmarks of championship teams when you take them all in total. you get them here and there, but not nearly as often as top offenses or defenses.
obviously, these teams don't have huge holes there typically, but i wouldn't say those have been 2 of the traits consistently seen.

I agree. Especially on FOGO. Winning face offs is a team sport which is won and lost by winning the GB war. Maryland was able to beat Trevor Baptiste in 2017 with great wing play. In 2018, Yale beat TD Erlan with great wing play and GB's.

Defense with a strong offense wins championships. A goalie is a critical member of the defense, but defense is about team first. Yale and Penn State still need to prove they have great defenses. Towson is built on defense.

But, a lot can change between now and Memorial Day weekend.

Agreed. I just like the formula those three teams posesss for a deep run. Still anyone’s championship to win.

Tigers number one in both the media and Quint’s polls.

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/league/di/polls/19

Cooter wrote: ↑Sun Mar 03, 2019 6:13 pm

DU-fan wrote: ↑Sun Mar 03, 2019 4:17 pm Good points. I made some changes.

1. Towson
2. Cornell
3. Loyola
4. Maryland
5. Yale
6. Penn State
7. Duke
8. Denver
9. Ohio State
10. Notre Dame
11. Villanova
12. High Point
13. Virginia
14. Syracuse
15. Army
16. Johns Hopkins
17. Georgetown
18. Navy
19. Richmond
20. Michigan

Ohio State is 5-0 and has won all their games by 3 or more goals. I think OSU should be #4 this week.

Like it or not, Cornell is ranked #2 and OSU is ranked #9 today

Division I Media Poll
Rank Team Points Prev
1 Towson (4 - 0) 553 (25) 7
2 Cornell (3 - 0) 491 (3) 3
3 Loyola (4 - 1) 463 1
4 Penn State (4 - 1) 444 5
4 Yale (2 - 1) 444 4
6 Duke (5 - 1) 421 6
7 Maryland (5 - 1) 390 2
8 Denver (4 - 1) 369 8
9 Ohio State (5 - 0) 345 9
10 Notre Dame (2 - 1) 310 17
11 Villanova (3 - 1) 286 10
12 High Point (5 - 1) 244 11
13 Virginia (3 - 2) 237 13
14 Syracuse (2 - 2) 160 12
15 Richmond (3 - 2) 152 14
16 Georgetown (4 - 1) 137 19
17 Army (4 - 1) 131 15
18 Johns Hopkins (2 - 2) 127 18
19 Navy (3 - 1) 64 23
20 Rutgers (3 - 2) 28 22

Tigers have never been number one, except of course in 1974 when they won the title.

UMass was the last Colonial team to top the rankings, they were number one for several weeks at the end of the 2012 season.

wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun Mar 03, 2019 9:21 pm strangely, fogo dominance and top flite goalie play have not really been hallmarks of championship teams when you take them all in total. you get them here and there, but not nearly as often as top offenses or defenses.
obviously, these teams don't have huge holes there typically, but i wouldn't say those have been 2 of the traits consistently seen.

Of course, that does make intuitive sense as individual play is inherently much more erratic than team play. Biorhythms.
No goalie is 60% every day. No FOGO is always dominant and most importantly, not all GB's come from FO's.

I don't think we've seen many championship teams which didn't have at least one of those two specialty positions covered well above par. Usually those NC teams have both those players achieving at a top quartile rate or better. Of course, goalies benefit from a strong defense and FOGO's from strong wings...so, it may be that they're good enough to win rather than the driving force.

On the other hand, it's fair to say that dominating at X 70+% and a goalie at 60%, and you're going to win an awful lot of games!

10stone5 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 04, 2019 9:38 am Tigers have never been number one, except of course in 1974 when they won the title.

UMass was the last Colonial team to top the rankings, they were number one for several weeks at the end of the 2012 season.

Weren't the Towson Tigers D2 in 1974? I believe the tournament was combined D2 and D3 until maybe 1980.

Yup.
Division whatever, then, non DI, I guess.
I got to see Towson several years after that team, up close and they were as good or better than most DI’s.

I'm a little surprised that Ohio State didn't get any bump from the media, given they are one of the last three major unbeaten teams remaining.

Coaches Poll for March 4.
1 Towson 373 (14) 4-0 7
2 Loyola Maryland 333 4-1 1
3 Cornell 324 (4) 3-0 3
4 Yale 315 2-1 4
5 Duke 297 (1) 5-1 6
6 Penn State 296 4-1 5
7 Maryland 264 5-1 2
8 Denver 233 4-1 8
9 Ohio State 226 5-0 9
10 Notre Dame 216 2-1 12
11 Villanova 210 3-1 11
12 Virginia 172 3-2 10
13 High Point 155 5-1 13
14 Richmond 111 3-2 16
15 Syracuse 97 2-2 14
16 Army West Point 94 4-1 17
17 Johns Hopkins 87 2-2 18
18 Georgetown 58 4-1 20
19 North Carolina 53 3-2 15
20 Navy 28 3-1 n/r
Others receiving votes: Boston University 13, Rutgers 12, Colgate 7, Princeton 4, Massachusetts 4, Albany 2, Hobart and William Smith Colleges 2, Michigan 1, Delaware 1, Brown 1, Robert Morris 1

Ohio State is #9 here too.
Michigan was receiving 3 votes last week, beat St.John's convincingly, who received 17 votes last week, so Michigan drops to 1 vote this week?

Seems if Richmod had a dirrernt histotical pedigree they would be higher. Lost tough to #5. Lost 10-9 to now 7,at time time #2 and
they beat#10 Nd. So two lossee are to highly randked 5 and 7, and beat current #10. How does that pit them 14th? Seems viote is more about what will happen than what has happened.

HGK25 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 04, 2019 10:35 pm Seems if Richmod had a dirrernt histotical pedigree they would be higher. Lost tough to #5. Lost 10-9 to now 7,at time time #2 and
they beat#10 Nd. So two lossee are to highly randked 5 and 7, and beat current #10. How does that pit them 14th? Seems viote is more about what will happen than what has happened.

Obviously, the rankings are still affected by other considerations than just on-field performance.
Things like reputation, assessments of talent, ... are obviously still involved in the rankings.
As already mentioned this is shown in the large difference in rankings between Cornell and Ohio State.
Of course, High Point beat Virginia, along with Duke, and yet sits behind Virginia in the coaches poll.

I imagine at this point of the season that one should be doing that in order to make a reasonable ranking, but as we move on towards April things should be more and more result driven.

Of course the rankings are not just based on performance. Just watch High Point this year. I posted earlier they would lose 2 games,and would be knocked out of the top 20, even though they are 2-0 vs ACC teams. It almost already happened. But of course the ACC teams have now turned it around and are playing much better. The proof is that they beat another big name ACC team, or lost in a close "Good Loss." I contend if Lehigh had Pettit or Spence, they would have beaten UVA at UVA, and Colgate did beat Syracuse rather handily. Does anyone even care that the Colgate/Lehigh game was last week. Of course not, because Syracuse played Virginia!!!! Two great ACC teams. Syracuse/ Virginia/UNC are NOT good D teams!! A lot of teams can. and would beat them if they played. Even more if the ACC teams had to travel and play an AWAY game. I am not saying they don't have talent and may not improve, but the rankings are just what the biased observers think, and it is my observation they just look at O stars and the names they know, of both the players. and the front of the Jersey. I do think the BIG is pretty solid this year.

It is fair to note that neither Virginia or Syracuse are in the top 10, and that High Point is still in the top 20.

Hawkeye wrote: ↑Mon Mar 04, 2019 1:51 pm I'm a little surprised that Ohio State didn't get any bump from the media, given they are one of the last three major unbeaten teams remaining.

I'm not. It's good to see the pollsters refuse to vote directly off record and factor in SOS. Who has Ohio State played? Their best win is to BU, who also has a cupcake early season schedule. Marquette lost to Detroit Mercy. UMASS, while probably tied with Penn as the best three loss team in the country, is still 1-3.

Besides Cornell, every team ranked ahead of them has played at least two quality opponents. Cornell started their season three weeks after OSU and have two top five matchups this weekend, so I think we can give them a pass. Beef up your schedule like the rest of the big boys and you might get a seat at the adult table.

They'll have plenty of opportunities to prove themselves in Denver/ND/Big10 play. They'll have to wait until then to get their bump.

Voyuer wrote: ↑Tue Mar 05, 2019 9:50 am I contend if Lehigh had Pettit or Spence, they would have beaten UVA at UVA, and Colgate did beat Syracuse rather handily.

I contend Brown would have won the national championship a couple years back if Molloy didn't get hurt. Doesn't mean anything. UNC still got the rings.