Orange Duce

[old salt]

So the Saudis pumping cash into Trump and Kushner properties had no effect on our behavior? Before the event? Now? How could you know? What if Putin weighs in?

We have no idea (yet) what our IC knew, when they knew it, & who they notified.
The WP had the specifics on the intercept very quickly. That is another already established channel to get a warning to Khashoggi.

The $110 billion in arms sales is based on a LOI signed by the Saudi king in 2017. It's just not all locked in via contracts yet.
Either side can back out. The Saudis already passed up the deadline for a 20% discount on the Lockheed-Martin anti-ballistic missile defense system.
They're already negotiating with Russia for the S-400 air defense system (as is Turkey).
The 120 day clock is already running on global Magnitsky Act sanctions by the US.
Meanwhile, the EU has yet to pass a global Magnitsky Act. If we won't sanction EU companies who are building a pipeline with Russia, it's hard to imagine us sanctioning EU defense contractors for military sales to Saudi Arabia.

It could be a win for Iran because it could block our intel sharing, aerial refueling & precision weapons sales to the Saudis in their war vs Iranian proxies in Yemen,
(...not because the Saudis would try to purchase weapons from Iran).

There's a regional feud between Turkey/ Qatar vs Saudi Arabia/ UAE/ Egypt.
Don't take Turkey's version of events at face value, absent independent verification.

Halting arms sale, discontinuing military assistance, & halting intel sharing meets my definition of blowing up the US-Saudi alliance.
This could be a big deal.

[runrussellrun]

Yes, rrr. Nobody screamed louder than me about the Saudis after 9/11. The Bin Laden Family flights? Bandar Bush? Ring a bell? Today Is today, tho, and I think Trump’s utterly conflicted. How about you? Think he’s straight? Exactly.

tRump straight? No more so than most politicians. What part of " i hate them all" aren't you getting?

[runrussellrun]

In the Oval:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/11/us/p ... e=Homepage

The video is really something.

Unbelievable....but it's two media personalities. Can't go away fast enough.....we have seen that rodeo before.

But Obama wore a tan suit and tossed a ball around the Oval. That was really bad.

One....I repeat.....ONE nutjob congressman made mention of it. Yet, it burns in your brain so vividly. hmmmm

[runrussellrun]

In the Oval:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/11/us/p ... e=Homepage

The video is really something.

Unbelievable....but it's two media personalities. Can't go away fast enough.....we have seen that rodeo before.

But Obama wore a tan suit and tossed a ball around the Oval. That was really bad.

Don’t forget the paper clip incident.

guess it's ok for me to bring up Obama's long time churches Man of the Year award, louis FerryCon. Or richboy (from fossil fuels no less) Billy Ayers starting his political campaign.

Whataboutism is only for us....not for you. It's annoying when YOU do it. Clever when it's us. Should just go duck hunting again, but will have to lie about the daily limit.

[MDlaxfan76]

So the Saudis pumping cash into Trump and Kushner properties had no effect on our behavior? Before the event? Now? How could you know? What if Putin weighs in?

We have no idea (yet) what our IC knew, when they knew it, & who they notified.
The WP had the specifics on the intercept very quickly. That is another already established channel to get a warning to Khashoggi.

The $110 billion in arms sales is based on a LOI signed by the Saudi king in 2017. It's just not all locked in via contracts yet.
Either side can back out. The Saudis already passed up the deadline for a 20% discount on the Lockheed-Martin anti-ballistic missile defense system.
They're already negotiating with Russia for the S-400 air defense system (as is Turkey).
The 120 day clock is already running on global Magnitsky Act sanctions by the US.
Meanwhile, the EU has yet to pass a global Magnitsky Act. If we won't sanction EU companies who are building a pipeline with Russia, it's hard to imagine us sanctioning EU defense contractors for military sales to Saudi Arabia.

It could be a win for Iran because it could block our intel sharing, aerial refueling & precision weapons sales to the Saudis in their war vs Iranian proxies in Yemen,
(...not because the Saudis would try to purchase weapons from Iran).

There's a regional feud between Turkey/ Qatar vs Saudi Arabia/ UAE/ Egypt.
Don't take Turkey's version of events at face value, absent independent verification.

Halting arms sale, discontinuing military assistance, & halting intel sharing meets my definition of blowing up the US-Saudi alliance.
This could be a big deal.

Old Salt, are you by any chance the Randy of LP?
If so, welcome!

Yes, a breakdown of the alliance could indeed benefit Iran, thx for the explanation of what you meant.

I just don't think that having serious consequences for such an action needs to mean a permanent breakdown of the alliance. Both parties have too much at stake, but the US has a ton of leverage and it should be applied. And if this is accurate, the Saudis sure as heck need to shape up. You're correct, of course, that we should be looking at the intelligence carefully, fully cognizant of all the players and their motivations.

But if our IC independently have intercepts of 'rendition' and then he goes missing, sure is a long way to credible. And sounds like there's tape of torture and killing as well, though certainly our IC needs to verify carefully.

We certainly shouldn't wave our hands and say he wasn't a US citizen, so no worries, we need to sell arms to the Saudis cause we need the jobs.

[dislaxxic]

Old Salt, are you by any chance the Randy of LP? If so, welcome!

Oh fercrisSAKES, MD! You give us crotchety old guys a bad name...get your tongue-in-cheek emoji out, at LEAST (if indeed you truly needed it...)

Do you really think TWO DIFFERENT guys could find that exact same avatar picture and talk like a swabby like this poster does??

Seriously, you knew who OS was long ago, right?? [Where's that shrugging shoulders emoji??]

..

[old salt]

So the Saudis pumping cash into Trump and Kushner properties had no effect on our behavior? Before the event? Now? How could you know? What if Putin weighs in?

We have no idea (yet) what our IC knew, when they knew it, & who they notified.
The WP had the specifics on the intercept very quickly. That is another already established channel to get a warning to Khashoggi.

The $110 billion in arms sales is based on a LOI signed by the Saudi king in 2017. It's just not all locked in via contracts yet.
Either side can back out. The Saudis already passed up the deadline for a 20% discount on the Lockheed-Martin anti-ballistic missile defense system.
They're already negotiating with Russia for the S-400 air defense system (as is Turkey).
The 120 day clock is already running on global Magnitsky Act sanctions by the US.
Meanwhile, the EU has yet to pass a global Magnitsky Act. If we won't sanction EU companies who are building a pipeline with Russia, it's hard to imagine us sanctioning EU defense contractors for military sales to Saudi Arabia.

It could be a win for Iran because it could block our intel sharing, aerial refueling & precision weapons sales to the Saudis in their war vs Iranian proxies in Yemen,
(...not because the Saudis would try to purchase weapons from Iran).

There's a regional feud between Turkey/ Qatar vs Saudi Arabia/ UAE/ Egypt.
Don't take Turkey's version of events at face value, absent independent verification.

Halting arms sale, discontinuing military assistance, & halting intel sharing meets my definition of blowing up the US-Saudi alliance.
This could be a big deal.

Yes, a breakdown of the alliance could indeed benefit Iran, thx for the explanation of what you meant.

I just don't think that having serious consequences for such an action needs to mean a permanent breakdown of the alliance. Both parties have too much at stake, but the US has a ton of leverage and it should be applied. And if this is accurate, the Saudis sure as heck need to shape up. You're correct, of course, that we should be looking at the intelligence carefully, fully cognizant of all the players and their motivations.

But if our IC independently have intercepts of 'rendition' and then he goes missing, sure is a long way to credible. And sounds like there's tape of torture and killing as well, though certainly our IC needs to verify carefully.

We certainly shouldn't wave our hands and say he wasn't a US citizen, so no worries, we need to sell arms to the Saudis cause we need the jobs.

Too soon to accurately speculate on the likely impact. Still too many unknowns.
If Crown Prince MBS fingerprints are on this, I have a hard time seeing the alliance survive, so long as he remains in govt.
The King may be able to blame it on some overzealous underlings who botched a rendition which intended no harm,
...but that will be a tough sell, & is bad enough, even if it had worked.

Best case would be for Khashoggi to emerge unharmed, after a desert "vacation", as did the Lebanese PM, but it looks more likely to be the worst case.
I don't think Congress will allow Trump to plow through on this, if Khoshoggi est mort.

[MDlaxfan76]

Old Salt, are you by any chance the Randy of LP? If so, welcome!

Oh fercrisSAKES, MD! You give us crotchety old guys a bad name...get your tongue-in-cheek emoji out, at LEAST (if indeed you truly needed it...)

Do you really think TWO DIFFERENT guys could find that exact same avatar picture and talk like a swabby like this poster does??

Seriously, you knew who OS was long ago, right?? [Where's that shrugging shoulders emoji??]

..

Nah, I was a bit dense on that one.
Won't be the last time I'm slow on the uptake.

[MDlaxfan76]

So the Saudis pumping cash into Trump and Kushner properties had no effect on our behavior? Before the event? Now? How could you know? What if Putin weighs in?

We have no idea (yet) what our IC knew, when they knew it, & who they notified.
The WP had the specifics on the intercept very quickly. That is another already established channel to get a warning to Khashoggi.

The $110 billion in arms sales is based on a LOI signed by the Saudi king in 2017. It's just not all locked in via contracts yet.
Either side can back out. The Saudis already passed up the deadline for a 20% discount on the Lockheed-Martin anti-ballistic missile defense system.
They're already negotiating with Russia for the S-400 air defense system (as is Turkey).
The 120 day clock is already running on global Magnitsky Act sanctions by the US.
Meanwhile, the EU has yet to pass a global Magnitsky Act. If we won't sanction EU companies who are building a pipeline with Russia, it's hard to imagine us sanctioning EU defense contractors for military sales to Saudi Arabia.

It could be a win for Iran because it could block our intel sharing, aerial refueling & precision weapons sales to the Saudis in their war vs Iranian proxies in Yemen,
(...not because the Saudis would try to purchase weapons from Iran).

There's a regional feud between Turkey/ Qatar vs Saudi Arabia/ UAE/ Egypt.
Don't take Turkey's version of events at face value, absent independent verification.

Halting arms sale, discontinuing military assistance, & halting intel sharing meets my definition of blowing up the US-Saudi alliance.
This could be a big deal.

Yes, a breakdown of the alliance could indeed benefit Iran, thx for the explanation of what you meant.

I just don't think that having serious consequences for such an action needs to mean a permanent breakdown of the alliance. Both parties have too much at stake, but the US has a ton of leverage and it should be applied. And if this is accurate, the Saudis sure as heck need to shape up. You're correct, of course, that we should be looking at the intelligence carefully, fully cognizant of all the players and their motivations.

But if our IC independently have intercepts of 'rendition' and then he goes missing, sure is a long way to credible. And sounds like there's tape of torture and killing as well, though certainly our IC needs to verify carefully.

We certainly shouldn't wave our hands and say he wasn't a US citizen, so no worries, we need to sell arms to the Saudis cause we need the jobs.

Too soon to accurately speculate on the likely impact. Still too many unknowns.
If Crown Prince MBS fingerprints are on this, I have a hard time seeing the alliance survive, so long as he remains in govt.
The King may be able to blame it on some overzealous underlings who botched a rendition which intended no harm,
...but that will be a tough sell, & is bad enough, even if it had worked.

Best case would be for Khashoggi to emerge unharmed, after a desert "vacation", as did the Lebanese PM, but it looks more likely to be the worst case.
I don't think Congress will allow Trump to plow through on this, if Khoshoggi est mort.

well, fingers crossed on the emerge from the desert scenario.

I suspect they'll find some sort of face saving way to maintain the alliance albeit strained and conditional. Maybe a roll back of some of the clamping down on journalists and dissidents (not extremist/terrorists) more generally would be a good start. Other ideas that could help, short of MBS's full-on dismissal?

Seems to me it's going to take some combination of relatively short term consequences, coupled with some concessions from the Saudis, and a whole lot of diplomacy to get things back on better footing. It also seems to me that Trump's blundering around talking about the prospective arms sales is exactly the wrong approach.

[Trinity]

Mnuchin says he’s still going to Davos in the desert next week.

[CU77]

Begging for socialism in Florida (NYT):

“When is anybody coming to do something?” one woman asked as Panhandle residents begin searching for basic necessities.

Not how they felt in 2016:

[a fan]

Odd, I thought government was the enemy? Why don't they pick up the phone and call their insurers?

Odd. I have to pay for insurance for all of the assets that I own. Apparently the correct way to do it is to let my fellow taxpayers give me their money if something happens. Huh. Live and learn.

[Trinity]

“I’m not a baby,” Trump insists twice to Lesley Stahl. “But I’m President and you’re not.”

Paging Dr Ronny.

[youthathletics]

“I’m not a baby,” Trump insists twice to Lesley Stahl. “But I’m President and you’re not.”

Paging Dr Ronny.

I watched when that happened and laughed out loud, my wife was in the other room and just put her head down in laughter. I turned it off after that when they went to commercial.

Leslie didn't do herself any favors either, her questions were way too touchy-feeley. He did a great job avoiding her trap.

[Trinity]

I was waiting for the tax fraud question. The dictator love from Trump is disgusting.

[youthathletics]

You are much too smart not to read between the lines on his dictator love comments. If you are in law enforcement, you know exactly what he is doing.

[Trinity]

Yup. Announcing proudly the US does not care about human rights anymore. Meanwhile the NK nuke program proceeds.

[SCLaxAttack]

Begging for socialism in Florida (NYT):

“When is anybody coming to do something?” one woman asked as Panhandle residents begin searching for basic necessities.

Not how they felt in 2016:

How do you know that? Do you know what the woman quoted meant? Why must everything be viewed from a political perspective?

When she says “when is anybody coming”, maybe this woman meant was when will utility companies arrive, or tree removal and roofing companies, or volunteer organizations like the Cajun Navy or Red Cross. Even if she’s intimating FEMA, what’s wrong with that? A red county’s tax dollars are just as green as a blue county’s. I got back to my house in Wilmington, NC three days after Florence cleared out, and this part of the country was buzzing with that sort of activity, as well as groundswell personal charity of people sharing what they had and helping those affected more than they.

[Brooklyn]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/15/sen-eli ... itage.html


Doofus Trumpus said he would pay a cool Million to "Pocahontas" if she could prove any Native American heritage. Well, it's time to pay the piper.

[runrussellrun]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/15/sen-eli ... itage.html


Doofus Trumpus said he would pay a cool Million to "Pocahontas" if she could prove any Native American heritage. Well, it's time to pay the piper.

Is there a standard (percentage) used when the Federal government doles out welfare money to our nations non-profits regarding race? Is there any financial benefit for hiring minorities? Penn/Harvard certainly listed Warren as a native american. Does 1/32 meet the threshold? I would suspect 1/512 wouldn't.

Anyone know what amount matters? Should there be a threshold for obtaining federal welfare dollars. (A law ? )