Most people won't transfer. The absolute volume of transfers and star quality of players changes year over year (5 star recruits or stars at the college level) is what matters.wgdsr wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2024 9:36 amsure, speculation and that's one of the things the board is for. maybe somebody will make a comparison to how it's going on the trend. i don't see any big change from the past, but am speculating. nil according to some people has gotten substantial in a few places, i'm blind to that but also skeptical.norcalhop wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2024 11:48 pmIt's a trickle at first followed by a gradual change in behavior. Compare number of players now in transfer portal for lacrosse vs 3 years ago even taking out the graduate students for decent division 1 programs (not just the smaller schools like Canisius). NIL is part of that but not the end all be all. It takes acceptance and time. When the current cohort of graduate transfers go, coaches will double down on recruiting undergrad transfers even more. The floodgates will open when you see actual star players in higher volumes begin transferring at the undergraduate level. It's a matter of if not when.wgdsr wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2024 11:29 pmok, but those sports are unique (along with women's hoops and ice hockey) in that they carried a year in residence limitation. so if you wanted to transfer, you had to sit a year. then in jan 2020 the doj told the nc$$ in no uncertain terms if they liked their anti-trust protections, then the sit out rule (among other things) was to go bye bye. the portal was created at the same time, but it was the no sit out for those sports that's responsible for the increase you saw, because without that nil, portals, etc. wouldn't have those sports in the transfer tsunami.norcalhop wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2024 10:14 pmBaseball, Basketball, Football for now. I'm sure there are other sports I'm not following as closely.wgdsr wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2024 8:41 pmok, but which sports?norcalhop wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2024 8:33 pmwe're just starting to see star undergraduate players transfer in higher volumes in the other DI sports vs prior years due in particular to NIL and playing time changes. lacrosse will follow accordingly.
lacrosse has always been no sit out. the exception was being able to transfer intra-conference. conferences, not coaches necessarily, made that hard to impossible. that's now gone, but not really material.
the portal hasn't changed any of those things for lacrosse. but it's a cool name, makes us feel like we're watching star trek.
if nil comes into play as it has in the revenue sports, then that movement will be because of... nil.
most athletes in football and hoops don't find a suitable home for them, much less an upgrade or lateral move. in lacrosse, i suspect most athletes will find a spot to continue their education, and hopefully one where their lacrosse and/or other experiences are better suited for them.
Basketball transfer rankings and coverage continues to grow. https://247sports.com/season/2024-baske ... portaltop/. From the schools, you can see a glut of what I would say lateral moves. Wisconsin to UMiami, USC to UCLA, Arizona to IU, Ohio State to Tennessee, etc.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-footb ... ting-paid/
Link above gives rough proxies on payouts.
As for NIL, I can personally tell you certain high level (but not say NBA lottery draft picks) have gotten a few million to transfer to UNC.