LaxPower Back-Up Stick

Posted: **Tue May 09, 2023 8:45 pm**

MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 7:16 pm
Finster wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 7:08 pm
random observer wrote: ↑Sun May 07, 2023 7:26 pm Plenty of time for someone to take charge of the race in the tournament, but as it stands, I think Kirst has separated himself just a little bit from O'Neill. Slightly more points in fewer games, with a slightly higher shooting percentage. Caveat that Duke has had a tougher schedule, but where Kirst really separates himself is the second layer statistics. He has a significant lead in GBs (35 to 23), CTs (13 to 3), and has fewer TOs (19 vs. 24).

I have Kav a shade below O'Neill for number 3 primarily because he's been held in check several times in some of NDs bigger games, and his shooting efficiency is lower (almost 10% lower shooting percentage, despite a better SOG %, so not only is he not scoring as efficiently, but goalies are making more saves on him which ends possessions).

I think it would be useful for shooting percentage on SOG to become a more prevalent stat. Not all missed shots are created equal; a shot that misses the cage isn't usually harmful, whereas a saved shot is essentially a TO.
Kavanaugh’s shooting percentage is 29%. He wouldn’t register in the top 100 in D1.

In what universe do you reward that?!

I’m sincerely curious.
It’s funny you say that, because that’s what I’ve always mentioned too. But I’ve come to appreciate that he is driving a top-three team on offense and on the ride. Notre Dame doesn’t have alot of offensive options like the other top teams, so teams can key on him.

So I think he gets a pass on shooting efficiency. He’s also not a volume shooter like a Dordevic; he’s taking less than six shots a game.

The last two award winners, Wisnauskas and Bernhardt, shot the same percentage: 49%.

I just don’t think a player shooting 29%, EVEN IF he was the offensive leader of a team, should win this award. Kavanaugh isn’t even in the top 200 of D1 players in shooting percentage.

I realize no statistic is so clean it needs no further analysis, but I can’t get past 29%. That’s a lot of ball control turnovers.

Posted: **Tue May 09, 2023 8:51 pm**

blue angels wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 8:39 pm
random observer wrote: ↑Sun May 07, 2023 7:26 pm Plenty of time for someone to take charge of the race in the tournament, but as it stands, I think Kirst has separated himself just a little bit from O'Neill. Slightly more points in fewer games, with a slightly higher shooting percentage. Caveat that Duke has had a tougher schedule, but where Kirst really separates himself is the second layer statistics. He has a significant lead in GBs (35 to 23), CTs (13 to 3), and has fewer TOs (19 vs. 24).

I have Kav a shade below O'Neill for number 3 primarily because he's been held in check several times in some of NDs bigger games, and his shooting efficiency is lower (almost 10% lower shooting percentage, despite a better SOG %, so not only is he not scoring as efficiently, but goalies are making more saves on him which ends possessions).

I think it would be useful for shooting percentage on SOG to become a more prevalent stat. Not all missed shots are created equal; a shot that misses the cage isn't usually harmful, whereas a saved shot is essentially a TO.
If Cornell loses either of their 1st 2 games, Kirst doesn't have a prayer. If he outplays O' Neill and they get by Duke, he becomes the favorite. Although good, I am not even convinced he is the best attack man but it won't matter.

So says the ACC poster.

Posted: **Tue May 09, 2023 8:59 pm**

Again, I'm not worried that he may not be the best attackman, I'm more worried about him being the best lacrosse player.
His other stats of CTO, and GB's, not to mention his tenaciousness on the Ride, are staggering for a person that plays his position.
So sure, tell us he's not the best attackman, and I will tell you that the Tewy go's to the best Lacrosse player, of which he has proven that he certainly is in that category.
Gobigred
Joewillie78

Posted: **Tue May 09, 2023 9:20 pm**

joewillie78 wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 8:59 pm Again, I'm not worried that he may not be the best attackman, I'm more worried about him being the best lacrosse player.
His other stats of CTO, and GB's, not to mention his tenaciousness on the Ride, are staggering for a person that plays his position.
So sure, tell us he's not the best attackman, and I will tell you that the Tewy go's to the best Lacrosse player, of which he has proven that he certainly is in that category.
Gobigred
Joewillie78

Agreed. He is clearly one of the top three attacking players from a purely offensive standpoint, but the other stats put him over the top.

Posted: **Tue May 09, 2023 10:20 pm**

MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 6:51 pm
Gatsby wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 3:59 pm
MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sun May 07, 2023 6:23 pmIMO the top three are Kavanagh, Kirst, and O'Neill. Can't put any of the UVa guys in there because they have too much talent on offense, which inflates all of their numbers.
Wasn't that the case with Wisnauskas last year?
No. The Terps were just as deep, but Wisnauskas was head and shoulders above the rest of the team. Most goals by far, most assists by far. Clearly the offensive MVP on the Terps.

2022 Terps Top 3:
Wisnauskas 61G 42A 103P
Khan 35G 28A 63P
Demaio 33G 21A 54P

2023 Cavs Top 3:
Dickson 56G 18A 74P
Shellenberger 19G 43A 62P
Cormier 43G 11A 54P

Okay, but all the other teams discussed (ND, Duke, Cornell) are among the top offenses in the country (#3, #4, #6), so then all the candidates' stats are inflated by their excellent offense and also therefore should not be considered if that's a factor.

Posted: **Tue May 09, 2023 10:52 pm**

? My point was that Wisnauskas was by far the highest scoring player on the Terps offense. The same can be said for Kirst and O’Neill. Kavanagh is a bit closer to his brother, but the rest of the ND offense is significantly less prodcutive than them.

Posted: **Tue May 09, 2023 11:43 pm**

My point was, if having a lot of talent on offense disqualifies a candidate from being considered for the trophy, then all the candidates should be disqualified since they are all on teams with the top offenses in the country.

Posted: **Wed May 10, 2023 7:45 am**

The UVA conundrum is that (a) Shelley is the best offensive player but has twice as many assists as goals; and (b) Dickson, with more goals/points than Shelley and a breakthrough year, isn’t in the 25 man finalist field. Maybe the first point shouldn’t matter but note that Shelley did not get 1st team AA in the USA Lax magazine listing. Could probably still win if he’s in the final 5, UVA wins it all, and he has a dominant NCAA tournament performance, but overall it feels like O’Neill v Kirst with Kav as the dark horse if ND wins it all on his back.

Posted: **Wed May 10, 2023 7:58 am**

Final 5 announced tomorrow (May 11) — predictions? My 5 in alphabetical order:

1. Gavin Adler
2. Pat Kavanagh
3. CJ Kirst
4. Brennan O’Neill
5. Connor Shellenberger

(First out for me might be Dordevic: hottest offensive player on a team going into the tournament with tons of momentum.)

Posted: **Wed May 10, 2023 8:07 am**

The Orfling wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 7:45 am The UVA conundrum is that (a) Shelley is the best offensive player but has twice as many assists as goals; and (b) Dickson, with more goals/points than Shelley and a breakthrough year, isn’t in the 25 man finalist field. Maybe the first point shouldn’t matter but note that Shelley did not get 1st team AA in the USA Lax magazine listing. Could probably still win if he’s in the final 5, UVA wins it all, and he has a dominant NCAA tournament performance, but overall it feels like O’Neill v Kirst with Kav as the dark horse if ND wins it all on his back.

I think it's more that Shelly is their best player (and possibly the best in the country), but he's been injured and thus hasn't played at a Tewaarton level. Dickson has been unreal, but I think by nature an off-ball guy is less valuable than a player who pretty much always demands a double team.

Posted: **Wed May 10, 2023 8:25 am**

random observer wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 8:07 am
The Orfling wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 7:45 am The UVA conundrum is that (a) Shelley is the best offensive player but has twice as many assists as goals; and (b) Dickson, with more goals/points than Shelley and a breakthrough year, isn’t in the 25 man finalist field. Maybe the first point shouldn’t matter but note that Shelley did not get 1st team AA in the USA Lax magazine listing. Could probably still win if he’s in the final 5, UVA wins it all, and he has a dominant NCAA tournament performance, but overall it feels like O’Neill v Kirst with Kav as the dark horse if ND wins it all on his back.
I think it's more that Shelly is their best player (and possibly the best in the country), but he's been injured and thus hasn't played at a Tewaarton level. Dickson has been unreal, but I think by nature an off-ball guy is less valuable than a player who pretty much always demands a double team.

Good analysis.

Posted: **Wed May 10, 2023 8:37 am**

The Orfling wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 8:25 am
random observer wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 8:07 am
The Orfling wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 7:45 am The UVA conundrum is that (a) Shelley is the best offensive player but has twice as many assists as goals; and (b) Dickson, with more goals/points than Shelley and a breakthrough year, isn’t in the 25 man finalist field. Maybe the first point shouldn’t matter but note that Shelley did not get 1st team AA in the USA Lax magazine listing. Could probably still win if he’s in the final 5, UVA wins it all, and he has a dominant NCAA tournament performance, but overall it feels like O’Neill v Kirst with Kav as the dark horse if ND wins it all on his back.
I think it's more that Shelly is their best player (and possibly the best in the country), but he's been injured and thus hasn't played at a Tewaarton level. Dickson has been unreal, but I think by nature an off-ball guy is less valuable than a player who pretty much always demands a double team.
Good analysis.

I’ll keep banging this drum until O’Neill gets the Tewey, but it amazes me this board fails to note Dickson’s historical shooting percentage. I can’t get numbers for previous years unfortunately, but my instinct tells me his 57% conversion ratio (at this level of goals) is an all time high. It’s really an incredible display of shooting IQ and way more worthy than Kavanaugh’s statistics (whom you keep propping up).

Posted: **Wed May 10, 2023 8:57 am**

Finster wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 8:37 am
The Orfling wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 8:25 am
random observer wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 8:07 am
The Orfling wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 7:45 am The UVA conundrum is that (a) Shelley is the best offensive player but has twice as many assists as goals; and (b) Dickson, with more goals/points than Shelley and a breakthrough year, isn’t in the 25 man finalist field. Maybe the first point shouldn’t matter but note that Shelley did not get 1st team AA in the USA Lax magazine listing. Could probably still win if he’s in the final 5, UVA wins it all, and he has a dominant NCAA tournament performance, but overall it feels like O’Neill v Kirst with Kav as the dark horse if ND wins it all on his back.
I think it's more that Shelly is their best player (and possibly the best in the country), but he's been injured and thus hasn't played at a Tewaarton level. Dickson has been unreal, but I think by nature an off-ball guy is less valuable than a player who pretty much always demands a double team.
Good analysis.

I’ll keep banging this drum until O’Neill gets the Tewey, but it amazes me this board fails to note Dickson’s historical shooting percentage. I can’t get numbers for previous years unfortunately, but my instinct tells me his 57% conversion ratio (at this level of goals) is an all time high. It’s really an incredible display of shooting IQ and way more worthy than Kavanaugh’s statistics (whom you keep propping up).

It's just a matter of what attributes you value most. Dickson is having an absolutely stratospheric season for a complementary player. But he is still ultimately playing off of other initiators. If you dropped him into a mid-level team, would he be having the season he is having? How much of his production is a function of UVA's prolific offense, and how much of UVA's offense is a function of him? It's hard to say with certainty.

Kavanagh (who would be at best #4 on the list for me after Kirst, O'Neill, and Adler) has been less efficient by far, but he fills a more critical function IMO. He's not contributing to the ND offense, he IS the offense. That's not to say I don't see the argument for Dickson, but I think Kavanagh has a pretty compelling case relatively speaking, given his overall production combined with the kinds of defensive attention he draws. Dickson has certain luxuries that Kav doesn't given his role in the offense.

Posted: **Wed May 10, 2023 9:04 am**

Finster wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 8:37 am I’ll keep banging this drum until O’Neill gets the Tewey, but it amazes me this board fails to note Dickson’s historical shooting percentage. I can’t get numbers for previous years unfortunately, but my instinct tells me his 57% conversion ratio (at this level of goals) is an all time high. It’s really an incredible display of shooting IQ and way more worthy than Kavanaugh’s statistics (whom you keep propping up).

Your instinct seems to be correct. Xander Dickson currently has 56 goals/57% just for the 2023 regular season.
From my search here are some guys with 50+% shooting and 50+goals scored in a single season-
Lyle Thompson - 51 goals/53.7% (2014) and 52 goals/51.9% (2015)
Miles Thompson - 66 goals/52.9% (2014)
Matt Rambo - 58 goals/53.7% (2017)
Ryan Boyle - 54 goals/57.4% (2004)
Mikey Powell - 61 goals/57% (2002)

There are a lot more, but they tend to fall before Y2K. Ryan Boyle and Mikey Powell have pretty similar shot% as Xander.

Posted: **Wed May 10, 2023 9:10 am**

The Orfling wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 7:45 am The UVA conundrum is that (a) Shelley is the best offensive player but has twice as many assists as goals; and (b) Dickson, with more goals/points than Shelley and a breakthrough year, isn’t in the 25 man finalist field. Maybe the first point shouldn’t matter but note that Shelley did not get 1st team AA in the USA Lax magazine listing. Could probably still win if he’s in the final 5, UVA wins it all, and he has a dominant NCAA tournament performance, but overall it feels like O’Neill v Kirst with Kav as the dark horse if ND wins it all on his back.

That's true but last year, USALacrosse Mag didn't have Shellenberger on its 1st team or even 2nd team. Nor did the magazine pick Makar, Wierman, Nicktern for its first team. On the USILA list, they were all first team, and Shellenberger was a Tewaaraton finalist. But I agree with you overall.

Posted: **Wed May 10, 2023 9:15 am**

Finster wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 8:37 am I’ll keep banging this drum until O’Neill gets the Tewey, but it amazes me this board fails to note Dickson’s historical shooting percentage. I can’t get numbers for previous years unfortunately, but my instinct tells me his 57% conversion ratio (at this level of goals) is an all time high. It’s really an incredible display of shooting IQ and way more worthy than Kavanaugh’s statistics (whom you keep propping up).

#10 Xander Dickson’s performance this year has been exceptional

not only his finishing but his ability to read a defense, find a seam and time his cuts

will he win the T-Award or even be named a finalist? No, probably not

but for any player wanting to improve their off ball play he is must watch TV

His success is not just a function or by-product of #1 Connor Shellenberger

His Ying & Yang combination with #24 Payton Cormier on the inside along with the scheme by OC Sean Kirwin can create a devastating mix

#1 is the star and gets all the attention but UVA's attack are greater than the sum of their parts

#4 Jeff Conner (16 A) & #26 Griffin Schutz (15 A) act as providers when #1 is the decoy

UVA 2023 may not win it all but they have been one of the most entertaining creative teams to watch

Posted: **Wed May 10, 2023 10:07 am**

45wewantmore wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 9:15 am
Finster wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 8:37 am I’ll keep banging this drum until O’Neill gets the Tewey, but it amazes me this board fails to note Dickson’s historical shooting percentage. I can’t get numbers for previous years unfortunately, but my instinct tells me his 57% conversion ratio (at this level of goals) is an all time high. It’s really an incredible display of shooting IQ and way more worthy than Kavanaugh’s statistics (whom you keep propping up).
#10 Xander Dickson’s performance this year has been exceptional

not only his finishing but his ability to read a defense, find a seam and time his cuts

will he win the T-Award or even be named a finalist? No, probably not

but for any player wanting to improve their off ball play he is must watch TV

His success is not just a function or by-product of #1 Connor Shellenberger

His Ying & Yang combination with #24 Payton Cormier on the inside along with the scheme by OC Sean Kirwin can create a devastating mix

#1 is the star and gets all the attention but UVA's attack are greater than the sum of their parts

#4 Jeff Conner (16 A) & #26 Griffin Schutz (15 A) act as providers when #1 is the decoy

UVA 2023 may not win it all but they have been one of the most entertaining creative teams to watch

Hey when O’Neil learns to use his weak hand or even attempts to go righty we will maybe think about him. He did the same move in last game against ND,for my money he is way over rated good player but a generational guy please

Posted: **Wed May 10, 2023 10:31 am**

laxfan1313 wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 8:51 pm
blue angels wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 8:39 pm
random observer wrote: ↑Sun May 07, 2023 7:26 pm Plenty of time for someone to take charge of the race in the tournament, but as it stands, I think Kirst has separated himself just a little bit from O'Neill. Slightly more points in fewer games, with a slightly higher shooting percentage. Caveat that Duke has had a tougher schedule, but where Kirst really separates himself is the second layer statistics. He has a significant lead in GBs (35 to 23), CTs (13 to 3), and has fewer TOs (19 vs. 24).

I have Kav a shade below O'Neill for number 3 primarily because he's been held in check several times in some of NDs bigger games, and his shooting efficiency is lower (almost 10% lower shooting percentage, despite a better SOG %, so not only is he not scoring as efficiently, but goalies are making more saves on him which ends possessions).

I think it would be useful for shooting percentage on SOG to become a more prevalent stat. Not all missed shots are created equal; a shot that misses the cage isn't usually harmful, whereas a saved shot is essentially a TO.
If Cornell loses either of their 1st 2 games, Kirst doesn't have a prayer. If he outplays O' Neill and they get by Duke, he becomes the favorite. Although good, I am not even convinced he is the best attack man but it won't matter.
So says the ACC poster.

Humorous response……..Not sure there are Many pro ACC posters. None of us want to have to play against each other in the tournament, but won’t be supporting the other if we lose earlier. I would rather draw a team like Cornell……. And to think, I thought I was giving you a less biased view of How Kirst could become the front runner.
Hate to break it to you, but I can’t stand Duke or Notre Dame. That being said I respect how good those teams and their stars are.

Posted: **Wed May 10, 2023 10:44 am**

lorin wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 10:07 am
45wewantmore wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 9:15 am
Finster wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 8:37 am I’ll keep banging this drum until O’Neill gets the Tewey, but it amazes me this board fails to note Dickson’s historical shooting percentage. I can’t get numbers for previous years unfortunately, but my instinct tells me his 57% conversion ratio (at this level of goals) is an all time high. It’s really an incredible display of shooting IQ and way more worthy than Kavanaugh’s statistics (whom you keep propping up).
#10 Xander Dickson’s performance this year has been exceptional

not only his finishing but his ability to read a defense, find a seam and time his cuts

will he win the T-Award or even be named a finalist? No, probably not

but for any player wanting to improve their off ball play he is must watch TV

His success is not just a function or by-product of #1 Connor Shellenberger

His Ying & Yang combination with #24 Payton Cormier on the inside along with the scheme by OC Sean Kirwin can create a devastating mix

#1 is the star and gets all the attention but UVA's attack are greater than the sum of their parts

#4 Jeff Conner (16 A) & #26 Griffin Schutz (15 A) act as providers when #1 is the decoy

UVA 2023 may not win it all but they have been one of the most entertaining creative teams to watch
Hey when O’Neil learns to use his weak hand or even attempts to go righty we will maybe think about him. He did the same move in last game against ND,for my money he is way over rated good player but a generational guy please

I favor Kirst at this point, for a number of factors, but O'Neill's 80 points, balanced, and the attention he draws every time he leans in, certainly make him formidable. I don't care about the dominant hand issue if he produces regardless. But can't have an off day like he did vs ND.

IMO, it all depends on tournament play between Kirst and O'Neill.
If either has a down performance and his team loses, likely goes to the other.

If Kavanaugh has an exceptional tournament and ND wins, ok.

If none of the star offensive players shines, but Adler shuts down his men yet again and they make it to Memorial Day...maybe.

Could Shellenberger have the exceptional tournament and come from behind on this?
sure, but requires his injuries to not slow him down, so doubtful.

Posted: **Wed May 10, 2023 12:35 pm**

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 10:44 am
lorin wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 10:07 am
45wewantmore wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 9:15 am
Finster wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 8:37 am I’ll keep banging this drum until O’Neill gets the Tewey, but it amazes me this board fails to note Dickson’s historical shooting percentage. I can’t get numbers for previous years unfortunately, but my instinct tells me his 57% conversion ratio (at this level of goals) is an all time high. It’s really an incredible display of shooting IQ and way more worthy than Kavanaugh’s statistics (whom you keep propping up).
#10 Xander Dickson’s performance this year has been exceptional

not only his finishing but his ability to read a defense, find a seam and time his cuts

will he win the T-Award or even be named a finalist? No, probably not

but for any player wanting to improve their off ball play he is must watch TV

His success is not just a function or by-product of #1 Connor Shellenberger

His Ying & Yang combination with #24 Payton Cormier on the inside along with the scheme by OC Sean Kirwin can create a devastating mix

#1 is the star and gets all the attention but UVA's attack are greater than the sum of their parts

#4 Jeff Conner (16 A) & #26 Griffin Schutz (15 A) act as providers when #1 is the decoy

UVA 2023 may not win it all but they have been one of the most entertaining creative teams to watch
Hey when O’Neil learns to use his weak hand or even attempts to go righty we will maybe think about him. He did the same move in last game against ND,for my money he is way over rated good player but a generational guy please
I favor Kirst at this point, for a number of factors, but O'Neill's 80 points, balanced, and the attention he draws every time he leans in, certainly make him formidable. I don't care about the dominant hand issue if he produces regardless. But can't have an off day like he did vs ND.

IMO, it all depends on tournament play between Kirst and O'Neill.
If either has a down performance and his team loses, likely goes to the other.

If Kavanaugh has an exceptional tournament and ND wins, ok.

If none of the star offensive players shines, but Adler shuts down his men yet again and they make it to Memorial Day...maybe.

Could Shellenberger have the exceptional tournament and come from behind on this?
sure, but requires his injuries to not slow him down, so doubtful.

^^^ well stated. I generally agree with this, maybe excepting Kavanaugh whom i don’t think is on my top 5.

I swear my last name isn’t Dickson, so bear that in mind while I beg all of you to reconsider the young man #10 of UVA

. “gaits right hand” just pointed out Dickson’s one comparable and that is Mikey Powell. This kid is truly enjoying a Tewey year and he’s not done yet.

(btw, in case a Dickson family member ever reads this thread, feel free to buy me a beer one day, defending your kid while lacrosse retirees ignore his historical numbers!!)

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