2021 NCAA Tournament

[AreaLax]

Coaches Poll
1 Maryland (13)
2 Duke
3 North Carolina
4 Notre Dame
5 Rutgers
6 Lehigh
7 Virginia
8 Georgetown
9 Syracuse
10 Denver
11 Drexel
12 Delaware
13 Navy
14 Army
15 Richmond
16 Villanova
17 Albany
18 UMBC
19 Penn State
20 Ohio State

[DU-fan]

Coaches Poll
1 Maryland (13)
2 Duke
3 North Carolina
4 Notre Dame
5 Rutgers
6 Lehigh
7 Virginia
8 Georgetown
9 Syracuse
10 Denver
11 Drexel
12 Delaware
13 Navy
14 Army
15 Richmond
16 Villanova
17 Albany
18 UMBC
19 Penn State
20 Ohio State

Obviously the coaches are really good at analyzing teams. But, when do they actually get to watch games? Are they not playing on Saturday and reviewing their games afterwards or scouting their upcoming opponent? Do they actually get to watch that many other teams play? It makes me wonder...

[Wheels]

could you explain why you believe this is the case? my understanding... had they split, umd's numbers go down and rutgers' up.

and everyone else's in the b1g don't budge.

You're right. It'd be more accurate to say that if OSU/PSU/fill in the blank had beaten Maryland or Rutgers, that it would have strengthened the RPI numbers for everyone.

The stats people can correct me if I'm wrong, but if Hopkins had beaten Maryland in Week 3, then subsequent wins over JHU would have been more valuable for everyone else. Since no one else could beat Maryland or Rutgers, the RPI numbers sank.

[wgdsr]

could you explain why you believe this is the case? my understanding... had they split, umd's numbers go down and rutgers' up.

and everyone else's in the b1g don't budge.

You're right. It'd be more accurate to say that if OSU/PSU/fill in the blank had beaten Maryland or Rutgers, that it would have strengthened the RPI numbers for everyone.

The stats people can correct me if I'm wrong, but if Hopkins had beaten Maryland in Week 3, then subsequent wins over JHU would have been more valuable for everyone else. Since no one else could beat Maryland or Rutgers, the RPI numbers sank.

because of the tight, finite loop the b1g played (and that they all played the same number of games, same team twice) no result would change a team's rpi other than a team's own games.

for every win for team a vs team b, team b gets a loss. it's just 0's and 1's, and they work in lockstep in this case. that'll modify slightly after the b1g tourney with each team not playing the others equivalently, but not much as each outside opponents' game will still take a win and a loss.

[DU-fan]

Update from Patrick Stevens

Read the article.

https://www.uslaxmagazine.com/college/m ... pportunity

In short, there are still chances for another shakeup (or two or three) before the committee renders its verdict.

Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal

(1) Duke vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Manhattan
(8) BIG EAST/Georgetown vs. Army

Notre Dame, Ind., quarterfinal

(5) Notre Dame vs. COLONIAL/Delaware
(4) Virginia vs. AMERICA EAST/UMBC

Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal

(3) BIG TEN/Maryland vs. NORTHEAST/Saint Joseph’s
(6) Syracuse vs. Rutgers

Notre Dame, Ind., quarterfinal

(7) PATRIOT/Lehigh vs. Denver
(2) North Carolina vs. SOUTHERN/Richmond

Last three included: Denver, Army, Rutgers
First three on the outside: Navy, Drexel, Villanova

Moving in: Manhattan, UMBC
Moving out: Monmouth, Stony Brook

Conference call: Atlantic Coast (5), Big East (2), Big Ten (2), Patriot (2)

[NYterp09]

Update from Patrick Stevens

Read the article.

https://www.uslaxmagazine.com/college/m ... pportunity

In short, there are still chances for another shakeup (or two or three) before the committee renders its verdict.

Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal

(1) Duke vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Manhattan
(8) BIG EAST/Georgetown vs. Army

Notre Dame, Ind., quarterfinal

(5) Notre Dame vs. COLONIAL/Delaware
(4) Virginia vs. AMERICA EAST/UMBC

Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal

(3) BIG TEN/Maryland vs. NORTHEAST/Saint Joseph’s
(6) Syracuse vs. Rutgers

Notre Dame, Ind., quarterfinal

(7) PATRIOT/Lehigh vs. Denver
(2) North Carolina vs. SOUTHERN/Richmond

Last three included: Denver, Army, Rutgers
First three on the outside: Navy, Drexel, Villanova

Moving in: Manhattan, UMBC
Moving out: Monmouth, Stony Brook

Conference call: Atlantic Coast (5), Big East (2), Big Ten (2), Patriot (2)

Why does every single projected bracket I see keep putting Maryland and Rutgers in the same quarterfinal region? Surely the committee would try and split up the B1G’s only two participants, especially if Rutgers isn’t seeded.

[Comeonman]

Recall 2019 when Yale and Penn were in the same QF bracket. One of the the best games ever, after the two split barnburner games just weeks earlier. Should have been a SF or Final game for the broader TV audience, but turd happens.

[xxxxxxx]

Have the first-round sites been officially determined?

Still surprised they have 16 teams traveling when you could have high seed host and travel eight teams.

[wgdsr]

Have the first-round sites been officially determined?

Still surprised they have 16 teams traveling when you could have high seed host and travel eight teams.

they've been slow-playing for weeks, said they'd announce 2 weeks ago. they must know they can put it together in short order, attendance not a priority, and are trying to figure who should be rewarded and not hosed by a home game.

[xxxxxxx]

I would also hope that fan-friendly locations get priority but never count on logical decisions from the NCAA.

[jrn19]

Have the first-round sites been officially determined?

Still surprised they have 16 teams traveling when you could have high seed host and travel eight teams.

they've been slow-playing for weeks, said they'd announce 2 weeks ago. they must know they can put it together in short order, attendance not a priority, and are trying to figure who should be rewarded and not hosed by a home game.

They’re down to 6 sites; so based off who makes the tournament and what teams are located where, they only need to whittle it down to 4 to have the sites. They’re waiting for that I’d guess

[DU-fan]

Have the first-round sites been officially determined?

Still surprised they have 16 teams traveling when you could have high seed host and travel eight teams.

they've been slow-playing for weeks, said they'd announce 2 weeks ago. they must know they can put it together in short order, attendance not a priority, and are trying to figure who should be rewarded and not hosed by a home game.

They’re down to 6 sites; so based off who makes the tournament and what teams are located where, they only need to whittle it down to 4 to have the sites. They’re waiting for that I’d guess

They are announcing the 4 sites on Selection Sunday.

[DU-fan]

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/ ... ield/57794

Last week, we graduated from reporting who was on the NCAA Committee and where First Round Games would be played to actually projecting a bracket.

We laid out the challenges of utilizing historical precedent without the benefit of a valid RPI.

Since then, Syracuse beat Virginia, Navy beat Army, Notre Dame lost twice in North Carolina, Delaware and Drexel secured important CAA wins and Penn State beat Ohio State (those are, in my opinion, the outcomes that influenced resume fluctuations, in order of importance).

As a result, I think Syracuse moved from "last team in" (where I had them last week) to "Part of a big bubble with a lot of separation between the bubble and first team out." Navy went from the periphery of the conversation to nearly into the "First team out" spot and Army joined Syracuse in the "Part of a big bubble with a lot of separation between the bubble and first team out." Notre Dame went from contending for the No. 1 seed to comfortably Top 8, still holding the best win overall. Delaware and Drexel put themselves in a position that, if they meet in the CAA championship game, the loser still has a shot at an at-large. The Big Ten's stratification between No. 1 and No. 2, then No. 2 and the rest of the conference further decreased the possibility of a third bid for the league this year.

So the question to isolate now is, "How will the Committee actually pick the field?" Chair Tim Leonard has said they'll rely on the eye test a lot more than in years past, and that accentuates the role of the Regional Advisory Committee's feedback. This is my best guess at how the consensus RAC rankings look, informed by a multitude of conversations:

1. Duke
2. Maryland
3. North Carolina
4. Virginia
5. Notre Dame
6. Georgetown
7. Denver
8. Rutgers
9. Syracuse
10. Lehigh
11. Army
12. Drexel

The ranking's importance diminishes quickly after 12 because that's viewed as the number of at-large (8) and AQs (4) that are expected to be represented by the top 12 teams (with four AQ recipients falling outside of the top 12).

In last week's Bracketology, quality wins were awarded based on RPI. This week, they're awarded based on our guess at the RAC consensus, but that limits quality wins to the Top 10 for this exercise. We'll try to expand that for next week.

Assumptions
AQ: Currently the best winning percentage in their league (head-to-head is first tie-breaker, overall win percentage second).

America East: UMBC
Big East: Georgetown
Big Ten: Maryland
CAA: Delaware
MAAC: Monmouth
NEC: Saint Joseph’s
Patriot: Lehigh
SoCon: Richmond
Additional Rules: Teams must be .500 or better for at-large consideration (this has been true in the past; it’s unclear whether that rule is in place for 2021), teams must have played a minimum of five games (in typical years, the minimum is 12 games; it was lowered this year, and it’s unclear what the minimum will be set at because there’s been discussion that previously set minimums may be adjusted down).

Reminder: Record is a criterion.

IL's Mock Bracket

[10stone5]

Lehigh will get a seeding,

easily.

[Farfromgeneva]

Anyone ready for what a Loyola win would do to all of this?

[DU-fan]

Anyone ready for what a Loyola win would do to all of this?

Definitely makes it more complicated. Conference championships will also reshuffle some of this.

[Farfromgeneva]

And Loyola seems to be a link to a number of schools hanging around the hoop in various ways: Richmond, UVA, Lehigh, Navy, Army, GTown. And tangentially Towson has improved such that they could win the CAA. In a year with reduced cross pollination they seem to be a “middle market team” that could swing a few things.

[calourie]

Lehigh will get a seeding,

easily.

Need to beat Nova and win one in the PL tournament to get one.

[Henpecked]

What “eye test” will Syracuse pass to get an at-large bid?


The team can’t play defense.

[gunnerz]

What “eye test” will Syracuse pass to get an at-large bid?


The team can’t play defense.

They're done. 6-5 after they lose today? No 6-5 team warrants an at-large bid, especially after today's performance.. They're losing 20-6 right now.