Picks and Predictions

[Bart]

You dislike UVA, but the data just does not support Loyola at 8 compared to UVA. UVA lost about 36% of their goals and Loyola almost 45% (quick calc so my numbers may be off a little). Bigger loss is 168 draw controls by loyola, sure they have a good coach to coach them up but that is 168 more possessions gone right there. UVA looses 90 dc as well from a team that was less than dominant at the circle. Defenses are basically a wash with returners. Loyola lost to both Princeton, who UVA beat and lost to UVA.

Not a UVA fan and not an ACC fan but the data just does not suggest they deserve to be ranked higher than UVA at the beginning of the season. Will be settled on April 8th as they go head to head and I certainly hope the team from the Patriot League comes out on top.

I am a little late to this party....My numbers reflect yours if not slightly different.

UVA losses from 2019 to 2020 (percentages are of team production):
Goals = 38%
Assists = 54%
Draw Controls = 38%
Points = 43%

Loyola losses from 2019 to 2020(percentages are of team production):
Goals = 44%
Assists = 35%
Draw Controls = 60%
Points = 41%

There is a fallacy in the above argument on draw controls...Loyola lost players with 190 draw controls...but that doesn't mean that the next girl(s) up wont get 200. It certainly isn't 190 (168, your #) lost possessions.

Point taken. Written very poorly. I do not expect them to loose all 190 but the potential for a drop off with 190 of 313 dcs won is there. Will it matter? Will it materialize.....good question.

Look at Loyola historically in the draws (5 years):
2019 = 55% wins
2018 = 55% wins
2017 = 59% wins
2016 = 43% wins
2015 = 43% wins

The mean over 5 years of total draw wins is 52%....With an average of 515 draws per year for Loyola and their competition. Logically, to me, the 190 (168) number will be replaced by girl X and with her and other replacements, Loyola will still win between 47-55%. I don't see it as black and white as you portrayed it.

Not black and white, like I said written poorly. In the data you state, for the last five years one of the VanThof sisters was the leader in dcs (except 2016) with Taylor winning almost 50% of the successful dcs in 2017. One could make the inference that they were the backbone of the successful draw control situation. They are now gone. In your estimation, how much will this impact the draw?

Anyway, stats mean nothing as they have to play the game. I expect an intense game and one that will be close. BTW, the home team has won each game for the last 4 years....

{edit: as most of you know, it has been rumored that I have a personal connection with Loyola, so the above may come off as a homer rant....but, having watched daughter play endless rec, club, HS, showcase, etc. games in the DMV, we have gotten to know many of the Virginia players. We support their successes, they have a great team of players. I wish them luck and a great ranking . I hope they win all but one regular season game - 4/8/2020}

My calculations were quick. Glad you made more sense of the numbers. Again, the reason for the original post was that UVA was ranked too high at #8 and that Loyola would be better served to be in their place. I did not agree due to the relative losses to production as that is the only thing we have to go on in the preseason. That was all. I have no allegiance to the ACC or UVA and I hope they green team wins on the 8th.

[Dr. Tact]

Not black and white, like I said written poorly. In the data you state, for the last five years one of the VanThof sisters was the leader in dcs (except 2016) with Taylor winning almost 50% of the successful dcs in 2017. One could make the inference that they were the backbone of the successful draw control situation. They are now gone. In your estimation, how much will this impact the draw?

My calculations were quick. Glad you made more sense of the numbers. Again, the reason for the original post was that UVA was ranked too high at #8 and that Loyola would be better served to be in their place. I did not agree due to the relative losses to production as that is the only thing we have to go on in the preseason. That was all. I have no allegiance to the ACC or UVA and I hope they green team wins on the 8th.

This was a fun exercise in looking at the data....No disagreement with the high level analysis you are putting out there. The VT sisters were impactful and the question will be is it the player or the coaching. Dobbie is, in many circles, considered a draw expert....I think there will be a drop off - whether Rosenzweig/Wilson can be 75% or 90% of Taylor, I dont know....

As far as the original post premise...I dont disagree. As much as I want Loyola to succeed, I cant argue that UVA shouldnt be #8 or 10 or 15...I think alot will change and become clearer once the first month is played. IMO, Loyola is an interesting team to watch this year as they are young but will have juniors starting for their 3rd year...UVA, had the "Southern Fab 3" as I liked to call them (jackson, shoemaker and mueller). They presented the same challenges that the northern team (BC) had...shut one down, possible...shut 3 down, improbable. Will Mueller get face guarded every game? Will the Hoos reload the spots that Jackson and Shoemaker left? I dont know....UVA could be really good, but then, they could be just a top 20 team....Hoo knows?

[Lax247]

A little lite reading Before games begin. 25-1 coming later

https://twitter.com/inside_lacrosse/sta ... 92544?s=12

[wlaxnut]

A little lite reading Before games begin. 25-1 coming later

https://twitter.com/inside_lacrosse/sta ... 92544?s=12

Broke them down in case a body doesn't feel like flipping through the D1 men and adverts to see which wlax players made their list:

26. Izzy Scane - A - Northwestern - Big10
30. Sarah Cooper - D - Syracuse - ACC
31. Kelly Larkin - A - Navy - Patriot
34. Shannon Kavanagh - M - Florida - AAC
35. Brennan Dwyer - Draw - Northwestern - Big10
36. Kali Hartshorn - A - Maryland - Big10
38. Cara Trombetta - D - Florida - AAC
39. Madison Carter - A - Penn State - Big10
43. Maddie Howe - M - Notre Dame - ACC
44. Alyssa Parrella - M - Hofstra - CAA
45. Paige Petty - M - Virginia Tech - ACC
49. Molly Garrett - M - Michigan - Big10

[Lax247]

A little lite reading Before games begin. 25-1 coming later

https://twitter.com/inside_lacrosse/sta ... 92544?s=12

Broke them down in case a body doesn't feel like flipping through the D1 men and adverts to see which wlax players made their list:

26. Izzy Scane - A - Northwestern - Big10
30. Sarah Cooper - D - Syracuse - ACC
31. Kelly Larkin - A - Navy - Patriot
34. Shannon Kavanagh - M - Florida - AAC
35. Brennan Dwyer - Draw - Northwestern - Big10
36. Kali Hartshorn - A - Maryland - Big10
38. Cara Trombetta - D - Florida - AAC
39. Madison Carter - A - Penn State - Big10
43. Maddie Howe - M - Notre Dame - ACC
44. Alyssa Parrella - M - Hofstra - CAA
45. Paige Petty - M - Virginia Tech - ACC
49. Molly Garrett - M - Michigan - Big10

[wlaxnut]

Seems like coach Acacia stomped down hard on whatever supposed dysfunction was going on out surrounding Charlotte North. In these quotes from the BC coach in a US Lacrosse mag article dated yesterday 1/27, she seems to go out of her way to support North, which by extension means (I'm guessing) that she found out who was doing the complaining and let them have it.

'"Losing Sam Apuzzo, Dempsey Arsenault and Kenzie Kent could cripple a program, but the addition of North — along with larger roles for talented players like Urbank and Rietano — could mean the Eagles have enough to weather the storm. North, who originally was scheduled to miss 2020 because of ACC transfer rules, was declared eligible in October.

“She’s incredible. She’s a really good kid,” Walker-Weinstein said. “She’s fit in really nicely with our culture, which is obviously your biggest worry when you have transfers. She’s so loved and she’s so fun. In my opinion, she’s one of the most dynamic players I’ve seen in years. Some of the things she does reminds me of Kayla Treanor.”

Walker-Weinstein said she hasn’t had discussions with North about replacing any of the Big Three.

“That’s not who she is,” Walker-Weinstein said. “She’s organic. She’s very secure in her game. She’s not trying to be Sam. She’s not trying to be anybody but herself.”'

[Lax247]

A little lite reading Before games begin. 25-1 coming later

https://twitter.com/inside_lacrosse/sta ... 92544?s=12

Broke them down in case a body doesn't feel like flipping through the D1 men and adverts to see which wlax players made their list:

I broke the rest down too as I had some time to kill:

3. Emily Hawryshuk - A, SYR - ACC
5. Jamie Ortega - A, UNC - ACC
6. Allie Kennedy - M, SB - AE
8. Katie Hoeg - A, UNC - ACC
12. Andie Aldave - M, ND - ACC
13. Taylor Moreno - G, UNC - ACC
14. Charlotte North - A, BC - ACC
18. Emma Trenchard - D, UNC - ACC
19. Sammy Mueller - M, UVA - ACC
20. Brindi Griffin - A, MD - Big 10
23. Livy Rosenzweig - A, Loyola - Patriot
25. Kerrigan Miller - M, USC - Pac-12
26. Izzy Scane - A - Northwestern - Big10
30. Sarah Cooper - D - Syracuse - ACC
31. Kelly Larkin - A - Navy - Patriot
34. Shannon Kavanagh - M - Florida - AAC
35. Brennan Dwyer - Draw - Northwestern - Big10
36. Kali Hartshorn - A - Maryland - Big10
38. Cara Trombetta - D - Florida - AAC
39. Madison Carter - A - Penn State - Big10
43. Maddie Howe - M - Notre Dame - ACC
44. Alyssa Parrella - M - Hofstra - CAA
45. Paige Petty - M - Virginia Tech - ACC
49. Molly Garrett - M - Michigan - Big10

I'm suprised not one player from any of the IVY Schools??
Lot of ACC players in top 10 women

[LaxGuy17]

A little lite reading Before games begin. 25-1 coming later

https://twitter.com/inside_lacrosse/sta ... 92544?s=12

Broke them down in case a body doesn't feel like flipping through the D1 men and adverts to see which wlax players made their list:

I broke the rest down too as I had some time to kill:

3. Emily Hawryshuk - A, SYR - ACC
5. Jamie Ortega - A, UNC - ACC
6. Allie Kennedy - M, SB - AE
8. Katie Hoeg - A, UNC - ACC
12. Andie Aldave - M, ND - ACC
13. Taylor Moreno - G, UNC - ACC
14. Charlotte North - A, BC - ACC
18. Emma Trenchard - D, UNC - ACC
19. Sammy Mueller - M, UVA - ACC
20. Brindi Griffin - A, MD - Big 10
23. Livy Rosenzweig - A, Loyola - Patriot
25. Kerrigan Miller - M, USC - Pac-12
26. Izzy Scane - A - Northwestern - Big10
30. Sarah Cooper - D - Syracuse - ACC
31. Kelly Larkin - A - Navy - Patriot
34. Shannon Kavanagh - M - Florida - AAC
35. Brennan Dwyer - Draw - Northwestern - Big10
36. Kali Hartshorn - A - Maryland - Big10
38. Cara Trombetta - D - Florida - AAC
39. Madison Carter - A - Penn State - Big10
43. Maddie Howe - M - Notre Dame - ACC
44. Alyssa Parrella - M - Hofstra - CAA
45. Paige Petty - M - Virginia Tech - ACC
49. Molly Garrett - M - Michigan - Big10

I'm suprised not one player from any of the IVY Schools??
Lot of ACC players in top 10 women

I would have thought one of D'orsi, Rosensweig (Gabby), or Kyla Sears would have been there. Not sure who they'd bump, but not a lot of love for the Ivy's.

[wlaxnut]

A little lite reading Before games begin. 25-1 coming later

https://twitter.com/inside_lacrosse/sta ... 92544?s=12

Broke them down in case a body doesn't feel like flipping through the D1 men and adverts to see which wlax players made their list:

I broke the rest down too as I had some time to kill:

3. Emily Hawryshuk - A, SYR - ACC
5. Jamie Ortega - A, UNC - ACC
6. Allie Kennedy - M, SB - AE
8. Katie Hoeg - A, UNC - ACC
12. Andie Aldave - M, ND - ACC
13. Taylor Moreno - G, UNC - ACC
14. Charlotte North - A, BC - ACC
18. Emma Trenchard - D, UNC - ACC
19. Sammy Mueller - M, UVA - ACC
20. Brindi Griffin - A, MD - Big 10
23. Livy Rosenzweig - A, Loyola - Patriot
25. Kerrigan Miller - M, USC - Pac-12
26. Izzy Scane - A - Northwestern - Big10
30. Sarah Cooper - D - Syracuse - ACC
31. Kelly Larkin - A - Navy - Patriot
34. Shannon Kavanagh - M - Florida - AAC
35. Brennan Dwyer - Draw - Northwestern - Big10
36. Kali Hartshorn - A - Maryland - Big10
38. Cara Trombetta - D - Florida - AAC
39. Madison Carter - A - Penn State - Big10
43. Maddie Howe - M - Notre Dame - ACC
44. Alyssa Parrella - M - Hofstra - CAA
45. Paige Petty - M - Virginia Tech - ACC
49. Molly Garrett - M - Michigan - Big10

I'm suprised not one player from any of the IVY Schools??
Lot of ACC players in top 10 women

I would have thought one of D'orsi, Rosensweig (Gabby), or Kyla Sears would have been there. Not sure who they'd bump, but not a lot of love for the Ivy's.

I'm with you LaxGuy--the first thought I had was, "No Kyla Sears?"

So--I'm done with these lists from IL Women and US Lacrosse Magazine and LSN guest host lists her top blah-blah-blah.
I'm also done with kvetching about who makes the Tewaaraton lists. Another exercise in futility.

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

Thought I'd dust off this old topic and plunk these here. I'm not a big pick 'em and predict 'em type but it is fun to see the matchups and how others pick. I thought these were the potentially most evenly matched games of the first three days of the new season. Some teams made the tournament last year or in '19.

#13 Stanford at #3 Syracuse -
Louisville at Colorado -
#17 Rutgers at Delaware -
Wagner at #16 Drexel -
#4 Northwestern at #1 BC -
Army at #22 Temple -
High Point at Davidson -
Virginia Tech at #18 Jacksonville -
#2 Carolina at #12 JMU -
Mt. St. Mary's at Towson -
#9 Maryland at St. Joe's -
San Diego St at USC -
Louisville at #14 Denver -
#23 Michigan at #5 Notre Dame -

[Brownlax]

#13 Stanford at #3 Syracuse - Syracuse
Louisville at Colorado - Colorado
#17 Rutgers at Delaware - Rutgers
Wagner at #16 Drexel - Drexel
#4 Northwestern at #1 BC - BC
Army at #22 Temple - Temple
High Point at Davidson - High point
Virginia Tech at #18 Jacksonville - Jacksonville
#2 Carolina at #12 JMU - UNC
Mt. St. Mary's at Towson - Towson
#9 Maryland at St. Joe's - MD
San Diego St at USC - USC
Louisville at #14 Denver - Denver
#23 Michigan at #5 Notre Dame - ND

[Cagekeeper]

Thought I'd dust off this old topic and plunk these here. I'm not a big pick 'em and predict 'em type but it is fun to see the matchups and how others pick. I thought these were the potentially most evenly matched games of the first three days of the new season. Some teams made the tournament last year or in '19.

#13 Stanford at #3 Syracuse - Cuse
Louisville at Colorado - Colorado
#17 Rutgers at Delaware - Rutgers
Wagner at #16 Drexel - wag
#4 Northwestern at #1 BC - bc
Army at #22 Temple - temple
High Point at Davidson - no idea
Virginia Tech at #18 Jacksonville - Jacksonville
#2 Carolina at #12 JMU - unc
Mt. St. Mary's at Towson - towson
#9 Maryland at St. Joe's - md by a LOT
San Diego St at USC - usc
Louisville at #14 Denver - Denver
#23 Michigan at #5 Notre Dame - notre dame

[ThreeSeconds]

#13 Stanford at #3 Syracuse - Cuse
Louisville at Colorado - Louisville
#17 Rutgers at Delaware - Rutgers
Wagner at #16 Drexel - Drexel
#4 Northwestern at #1 BC - BC
Army at #22 Temple - Temple
High Point at Davidson - HPU
Virginia Tech at #18 Jacksonville - VaTech
#2 Carolina at #12 JMU - UNC
Mt. St. Mary's at Towson - Towson
#9 Maryland at St. Joe's - Maryland
San Diego St at USC - USC
Louisville at #14 Denver - Louisville
#23 Michigan at #5 Notre Dame - Michigan

[user1020]

13 Stanford at #3 Syracuse - Cuse
Louisville at Colorado - Colorado
#17 Rutgers at Delaware - Rutgers
Wagner at #16 Drexel - Drexel
#4 Northwestern at #1 BC - BC
Army at #22 Temple - Temple
High Point at Davidson - HPU
Virginia Tech at #18 Jacksonville - VT
#2 Carolina at #12 JMU - UNC
Mt. St. Mary's at Towson - MSM
#9 Maryland at St. Joe's - UMD
San Diego St at USC - USC
Louisville at #14 Denver - Denver
#23 Michigan at #5 Notre Dame - ND

[user1020]

Is creating an Inside Lacrosse account and making picks on their worth it?

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

I would love for Tucker and the Blue Jays to finally beat the Terps but I just don't see it. These are the kinds of marginal teams Maryland loves to devour.

Final score from yesterday's game: Maryland 17 Johns Hopkins 6



I get far more wrong but it's fun when predictions end up being right on.

[Maryland75]

Is Maryland feasting on Hopkins (a league game) any different then BC feasting on Louisville, Pitt and Va Tech (league games) ?

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

Is Maryland feasting on Hopkins (a league game) any different then BC feasting on Louisville, Pitt and Va Tech (league games) ?

BC wasn't part of the original conversation. Nor was Northwestern, Carolina, Loyola, Florida, JMU, Syracuse, Stony Brook, Jacksonville, Denver or Stanford, for that matter--all teams that regularly feast on weaker opponents.

If I didn't know any better, I would say some Maryland fans suffer from an inferiority complex. Either that, or they are so ultra sensitive regarding their beloved little turtles that they can't bear to let stand anything referencing the team unless it is in the most glowing and genuflecting terms. Ah, the magnificence of Maryland and their storied past! Ah, the genius of Cathy Reese! Ah, the 15 National Championships!

So predictable and so SO utterly tedious.

[Maryland75]

My point OMW is you cannot post about Maryland without taking a dig at them. In the multitude of tedious posts you make you continually dis Maryland. Trust me Maryland fans don’t have inferiority complexes about Women’s Lacrosse. How wonderful for you that your beloved BC won a National Championship, I was also rooting for them. It does not mask the fact that they also play week teams in their league and run up big scores.

[laxmom22]

I have been reading this and the previous Laxpower forum for, as much as I hate to admit it, close to 20 years and I have been a diehard Terp fan for a lot longer than that. Terp fans know where their teams stand, we are not unrealistic, we are just hopeful and unfailingly supportive. ONW is just one of the group of anti-Terp posters that is negative about the Terps, doesn't matter what they do or don't do. I learned a long time ago to just ignore them. Maryland has won more D1 Women's Lacrosse NCs than any other team and yesterday celebrated the program's 750th win.
As far as BC goes, I was thrilled to see BC win the NC. Oh, by the way, their coach is a Terp and one of the sweetest girls you will ever meet.