Final Four Predictions (Poll)

[walker]

UVA, UNC, PSU, Penn

[wgdsr]

All games at any stage are suppose to factor equally which is flawed . Never heard in sports that its how you start that matters rather than how you finish. HP would have won a title if season ended after two weeks when upsets reigned but trophies aren't handed out that early. HP was a rather average team after that start and Antonio was spot on exposing the faults of arguing for them. If any team had a gripe about JHU inclusion it was Cornell moreso than HP, with Army upsetting Loyola, Big Red had to win their tough conference and they couldn't yet they were clearly better than the champs of America East and MAAC who made the tourney despite being very average teams . Ill take the opposite of AE position and say the real issue in 19 was the AQ's given to Marist and UMBC, if you are going to keep AQ then expand the field to best ensure that the best sixteen teams are included

anyone is allowed their opinion about how it should be done, of course. but you're not allowed your own set of facts.

Never heard in sports that its how you start that matters rather than how you finish.

how does every professional league and tournament qualify teams for playoffs? with all games included, or just the late ones? how about every league in high school?
the nc$$ has to have a different setup, with so many colleges competing for "national" championships. so they allow for a "subjective" selection by humans.
they also allow for what you want -- it's how you finish. that's what the tournament aq's are for. finish strong, and you're in. how much more late season emphasis are we looking for? so they're really the only type of league in sports that gives the strong finish crowd a vote.
personally, i'd also like all my games to matter. not just the last couple. they're scheduled, they're contests, and i'm measured by it.
that's what at larges are supposed to be for. so one avenue for each.
i guess in your hpu vs hop argument you really like their maryland wins because they were late season? against the #10+ team vs wins against #2 and #3 early? personally, i like the #2 and #3 wins better. especially because hpu got 5 wins in 6 chances against quality teams and hopkins was maybe 5 for 12?
cornell should've known that solidifying their chances took winning one tourney game, not 2. they would've been my choice, too in either event vs hop. but... rpi. interesting that you like cornell, though. with only one quality win over the last 10 games of their season after march 10.

[stupefied]

Yep, Just my opinion that didn't factor into the set of facts... the Fact was the calculation gave equal weighting to all games no matter when held and HP winded up with the fullest of credits for those wins in the opening weeks as UVA and Duke both went on to strong seasons yet HP still finished 20th in rpi while JHU was 10th and Cornell 12th.

Antonio was spot on breaking down the facts of HP season and why they were not deserving..

[PulpExposure]

UVA, PSU, Maryland, Duke.

[a fan]

All games at any stage are suppose to factor equally which is flawed . Never heard in sports that its how you start that matters rather than how you finish. HP would have won a title if season ended after two weeks when upsets reigned but trophies aren't handed out that early. HP was a rather average team after that start and Antonio was spot on exposing the faults of arguing for them. If any team had a gripe about JHU inclusion it was Cornell moreso than HP, with Army upsetting Loyola, Big Red had to win their tough conference and they couldn't yet they were clearly better than the champs of America East and MAAC who made the tourney despite being very average teams . Ill take the opposite of AE position and say the real issue in 19 was the AQ's given to Marist and UMBC, if you are going to keep AQ then expand the field to best ensure that the best sixteen teams are included

So...don't count the first three games on the schedule? Or don't count them as much?

Where are you drawing the line for this idea?

[ABV 8.3%]

I think many of us forget the origins of the AQ, in lacrosse. Heck, it took the n$aa TEN years to address the problem of leaving teams out, that didn't LOSE a game that season. Was 1996 NOT that long ago !

Also, some of the AQ's werent' super strong in their final game, this is true. (playing MID-week have anything to do with it ? ), But, comeon, my favorite 'dumpon" team is Hopkins. How've that team faired in the first round in the past decade?

For years, it was, "well, they don't play anyone"

Well, know that they "played someone" (two, actually, someones )....and BEAT those someones....

You old timers, when confronted with this, move the nets to the "well, it's early season, so...."

In college hoops, a team that BEAT, say, Kentucky, Duke, & another top 5-10 team, was 4th in n$aa hoops winning percentage ...and finished second in it's conference final. You REALLY think that hoops team is sitting out ?

D1 football is a me$$, lame playoffs, 47 bowel games......

Best idea someone floated was expanding the playoffs, to add teams like Army and High Point, keeping your traditional "gate sales teams" into the mix. Only, when people by n$aa FF tixs, is say, Feb. or early March, when games shouldn't count, or as much. (only add 50% to the RPI's first 25% criteria, which is a teams winning percentage. So, if a team has won 4 games, they will NOT be 4-0, in the RPI math, they will be 2-0. Games after the Ides of March count fully. NOTE: This only applies to NON-laundry teams. If Duke had beaten High Point, that counts as a full, 100% win. In FACT....all team RANKED, or felt more deserving worthy b/c they :

1: Won a championship when 1000 young men played the game. Total. In all of North America.
2: Won "championships" in days or yurning when 4 or 5 "club's existed. Anywhere.
3: Elite institution

[ABV 8.3%]

MERRY THANKSGIVING........FUN STUFF

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ls_yCvHX-g8

[wgdsr]

Yep, Just my opinion that didn't factor into the set of facts... the Fact was the calculation gave equal weighting to all games no matter when held and HP winded up with the fullest of credits for those wins in the opening weeks as UVA and Duke both went on to strong seasons yet HP still finished 20th in rpi while JHU was 10th and Cornell 12th.

Antonio was spot on breaking down the facts of HP season and why they were not deserving..

still gotta remember to read posts with the obligatory imo at the end, as well as the beginning.

own team rpi is now what matters, at least in '19 (btw, it's not supposed to. it's written in the rules as such, which factors are supposed to be considered.) also, selections could've been explained away as a result of the actual criteria being considered and weighed for all years prior. not so in 2019. 2019 it was rpi or bust, regardless of the actual rules. are you informed that the coaches were aware of this? rhetorical.

[Cooter]

So far:
Cooter - PSU, UMd, UVa, Syracuse
Hoodat - UVa, Cornell, Duke, Penn
laxrules - PSU, UMd, UVa, Syracuse
Hop16 - PSU, Yale, UVa, Duke
FannOLax - UVa, PSU, Yale, Syracuse
molo - UVa, PSU, Syracuse, UMd
calorie - Yale, PSU, UVa, Syracuse
DocB - Duke, PSU, UVa, JHU
Dip&Dunk - UMd, PSU, JHU, UVa
stupified - PSU, UMd, UVa, Penn
jersey shore lax - PSU, Duke, Yale, Delaware
Typical Lax Dad - PSU, UVa, Duke, Penn
AreaLax - UMd, Penn, PSU, Yale
BigTom4 - PSU, UVA, Yale, Penn
DAlaxDad - UVA, Penn, Syracuse, UMd
QuakerSouth - Duke, JHU, Penn, UMd
Spartanslynx - PSU, UVA, Yale, Penn
ABV 8.3% - OSU, Syracuse, Brown, UMd
RumorMill - Yale, Duke, Notre Dame, UMass
Drcthru - PSU, UVA, Yale, JHU
blue angels - Penn, UMd, Duke, UNC
PizzaSnake - Penn, PSU, UMd, UVa
Walker - UVA, UNC, PSU, Penn
PulpExposure - UVA, PSU, Maryland, Duke.

24 entrees, UNC finally got picked, still no Denver.
PSU - 18, UVa - 18,
Yale - 9, UMd - 12, Penn - 11, Syracuse - 7, Duke - 9
JHU - 4, Cornell - 1, UMass - 1, Notre Dame - 1, Brown - 1, Delaware - 1, OSU - 1, UNC - 2

[stupefied]

Not a single selection of Denver in Final Four is quite surprising given their history of being a factor

Know they missed playoffs last year and have to replace some D but they will still field a very competitive team under Tierney.

[GSP]

UVA, Duke, UMd, Penn

[PicLax]

Hate to be repetitive and boring, but...PSU, Yale, Duke, UVA.

[Dunker]

DENVER, PSU, VIRGINIA, SYRACUSE

Case for Denver: Yes, they must rebuild their D. Tierney recruits athletes for defense and he makes them successful. However, expect DU to have the ball most of the time. New FOGO was by far best in HS and now Baptiste trained. (78% at Culver) Walker great on offense, 2 other returnees pretty good and add that big soph attack man Ellis Geis who tore his ACL mid- season.. Big kicker is a bunch of Canadians ready to wreck havoc on offense. Lots of scoring chances on the door step like the old DU teams. French will be fine in goal He's been groomed since his frosh HS year to be the DU goalie. MF Danny Logan is the best player DU has yet he's unheard of. He can do it all, will be on the field most of the game. He makes teams win, a la Jeremy Noble.

[3rdPersonPlural]

DENVER, PSU, VIRGINIA, SYRACUSE

Case for Denver: Yes, they must rebuild their D. Tierney recruits athletes for defense and he makes them successful. However, expect DU to have the ball most of the time. New FOGO was by far best in HS and now Baptiste trained. (78% at Culver) Walker great on offense, 2 other returnees pretty good and add that big soph attack man Ellis Geis who tore his ACL mid- season.. Big kicker is a bunch of Canadians ready to wreck havoc on offense. Lots of scoring chances on the door step like the old DU teams. French will be fine in goal He's been groomed since his frosh HS year to be the DU goalie. MF Danny Logan is the best player DU has yet he's unheard of. He can do it all, will be on the field most of the game. He makes teams win, a la Jeremy Noble.

I too am a DU fan. However:

I view team defense the same way football guys view the O-Line. A spit-load of size and quickness is a great foundation, but unity and cohesion are even more critical. DU has great, defense oriented coaches, but getting a bunch of exceptional athletes who have been playing lax since elementary school organized and coordinated into a D1 rope unit is a tall order.

There're lots of examples of Frosh attackmen excelling in big time college lax, but precious few examples of poles. We're hanging on a string of hope here, Dunker.

French is a top shelf Keeper, but even the best look bad if the rope unit is raw or the SSDM are beaten. DU has Logan, but who else taking SSDM seriously? You probably know more than me, but 3 or 4 serious, focused, all in SSDMs are needed to make a run at the final 4. DU has as good a chance as anyone to come up with these, but we haven't identified them yet.

On offense, who's gonna draw the double to start the close? Geis might, but he's a big kid with a big shot, not a dodger. Not a ball handler. Canadians (to be general) are great once the ball starts spinning and the defense is disrupted, but they aren't usually the guys to break a defense down. We need a Grant Ament to get the D to play 2 on him and 4 on the rest of the 5. Maybe that kid Silstrop from La Costa? Maybe someone already on the roster?

Alec Stathakis is indeed a generational talent at FO, but there are a half dozen upper classmen on competing squads who won't be intimidated, and after Baptistes freshman year coaches figured out how to make face offs a 3 v 3 event rather that 1 v 1. If Stathakis is a repeat of Baptiste, the results will be less pronounced.

Go PIOS!!

[wgdsr]

There're lots of examples of Frosh attackmen excelling in big time college lax, but precious few examples of poles. We're hanging on a string of hope here, Dunker.

French is a top shelf Keeper, but even the best look bad if the rope unit is raw or the SSDM are beaten. DU has Logan, but who else taking SSDM seriously? You probably know more than me, but 3 or 4 serious, focused, all in SSDMs are needed to make a run at the final 4. DU has as good a chance as anyone to come up with these, but we haven't identified them yet...
Go PIOS!!

nitpicking here, but there are tons of examples of impact players at pole as freshmen. just looking at last year's aa list only:
https://www.uslaxmagazine.com/college/m ... er-of-year
all but several of the guys on 1st, 2nd and 3rd team were leaders of their d and vg players as freshmen. and there are many more throughout college lacrosse that don't get aa nods.

@ ssdm -- unless you are a very, very elite guy --- there is a learning (and probably a physically maturing) phase to be a good ssdm early. that can take more time, but by year end any good candidate can at least be solid.

[Tdemling6]

Lacrosse Bucket contributor Tim Roessler says Virginia, Penn State, Yale, Maryland, and Syracuse all have a chance to make a run.
https://lacrossebucket.com/2019/12/10/r ... end-picks/

[RumorMill]

Lacrosse Bucket contributor Tim Roessler says Virginia, Penn State, Yale, Maryland, and Syracuse all have a chance to make a run.
https://lacrossebucket.com/2019/12/10/r ... end-picks/

Biggest criticism is that Roessler doesn't list Bomberry as a "Key Loss" for the Orange! This of course is in no way an insult to their returners, but to make the statement "The Orange bring back Everyone in 2020..." is a bit misleading.

[stupefied]

Lacrosse Bucket contributor Tim Roessler says Virginia, Penn State, Yale, Maryland, and Syracuse all have a chance to make a run.
https://lacrossebucket.com/2019/12/10/r ... end-picks/

Biggest criticism is that Roessler doesn't list Bomberry as a "Key Loss" for the Orange! This of course is in no way an insult to their returners, but to make the statement "The Orange bring back Everyone in 2020..." is a bit misleading.

Agree. Bomberry had good year and wont easily be replaced. Also have to replace Cunnigham at close who was sound.

Enjoyed the good writeup on all but cringe some when I read "lock" . UVA, PSU, Yale definitely odds on favorites but there are no absolutes.

[Cooter]

Lacrosse Bucket contributor Tim Roessler says Virginia, Penn State, Yale, Maryland, and Syracuse all have a chance to make a run.
https://lacrossebucket.com/2019/12/10/r ... end-picks/

Biggest criticism is that Roessler doesn't list Bomberry as a "Key Loss" for the Orange! This of course is in no way an insult to their returners, but to make the statement "The Orange bring back Everyone in 2020..." is a bit misleading.

He also doesn't mention that UVa lost Mikey Herring and starter Logan Greco from the close defense. UVa also lost some regular ssdms.

This stuff about the Terps seems mostly like b.s.:

I see the same issue on offense.
They only have one player on the team this year who logged serious minutes during the Terps 2017 title run, which is also the last time the Terps won the B1G. This team as the perfect blend of young-blood and vetern leaders but this group hasn’t won anything together. Consider this year’s team a dark horse to compete for a spot on Memorial Day Weekend.

Bernhardt, Wisnauskas, Fairman, and A.DeMaio were all contributors on the Terps 2018 final four team.
The Terps are hardly a darkhorse for competing for a spot on Memorial Day Weekend (the final four).

[HooDat]

Lacrosse Bucket contributor Tim Roessler says Virginia, Penn State, Yale, Maryland, and Syracuse all have a chance to make a run.
https://lacrossebucket.com/2019/12/10/r ... end-picks/

Biggest criticism is that Roessler doesn't list Bomberry as a "Key Loss" for the Orange! This of course is in no way an insult to their returners, but to make the statement "The Orange bring back Everyone in 2020..." is a bit misleading.

He also doesn't mention that UVa lost Mikey Herring and starter Logan Greco from the close defense. UVa also lost some regular ssdms.

Repeating is VERY hard to accomplish - there are not a lot of programs that have managed to pull it off.