2020 Elections - Trump FIRED

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wgdsr
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Re: 2020 Elections - Dems vs Trumpublicons

Post by wgdsr »

njbill wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:33 pm Sabato has AZ, PA, NC, WI, MI, and GA going blue.

He was one of the prognosticators in 2016 who really got hammered because his projections were off. Suspect he is really trying to be correct this time. Otherwise, the old crystal ball is going to look more like that of a fortune teller’s.

Hope he’s right.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5 ... georgia-nc
i think i have his email. gonna see if i can set the rules on a wager, long odds on the group coming in. could get expensive depending on his tastes, but i'll throw in a larger bet on nc to hedge:
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NC.html

total registered are 2.6 d, 2.2 r, 2.45 i, with other parties as well. r's have ground to make up and who knows on independents, but covid is raging.

in person has been about even so far, but raleigh-durham looks tapped. cunningham's liasons probably don't help. lose the military bump and the "we don't cheat on our spouse" baptists.
njbill
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Re: 2020 Elections - Dems vs Trumpublicons

Post by njbill »

Do you think the Baptists are going to ticket split?
ggait
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Re: 2020 Elections - Dems vs Trumpublicons

Post by ggait »

One other interesting point from Wasserman.

His review of 2016 says that the polls under-estimated GOP strength in the north (obvi). But also under-estimated Dem strength in the Sun Belt (excluding FL). Theory is that the people the pollsters miss in the north tend to be white/no college Trumpers. The people the pollsters miss in the Sun Belt are young Latino Dem voters.

So he thinks Joe will do better in AZ than WI; more likely to win GA than FL; and more likely to win TX than OH.

Tl/DR: polling errors can be in both directions.
Boycott stupid. If you ignore the gator troll, eventually he'll just go back under his bridge.
Typical Lax Dad
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Re: 2020 Elections - Dems vs Trumpublicons

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

wgdsr wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:05 pm
njbill wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:33 pm Sabato has AZ, PA, NC, WI, MI, and GA going blue.

He was one of the prognosticators in 2016 who really got hammered because his projections were off. Suspect he is really trying to be correct this time. Otherwise, the old crystal ball is going to look more like that of a fortune teller’s.

Hope he’s right.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5 ... georgia-nc
i think i have his email. gonna see if i can set the rules on a wager, long odds on the group coming in. could get expensive depending on his tastes, but i'll throw in a larger bet on nc to hedge:
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NC.html

total registered are 2.6 d, 2.2 r, 2.45 i, with other parties as well. r's have ground to make up and who knows on independents, but covid is raging.

in person has been about even so far, but raleigh-durham looks tapped. cunningham's liasons probably don't help. lose the military bump and the "we don't cheat on our spouse" baptists.
I am in the “I” category but this year...straight Dem ticket. First time ever.
“I wish you would!”
Typical Lax Dad
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Re: 2020 Elections - Dems vs Trumpublicons

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

FLOTUS

Russian kompromat:

Last edited by Typical Lax Dad on Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
“I wish you would!”
jhu72
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Re: 2020 Elections - Dems vs Trumpublicons

Post by jhu72 »



..... GOT PLAYED
Image STAND AGAINST FASCISM
wgdsr
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Re: 2020 Elections - Dems vs Trumpublicons

Post by wgdsr »

njbill wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:12 pm Do you think the Baptists are going to ticket split?
what i was saying.
wgdsr
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Re: 2020 Elections - Dems vs Trumpublicons

Post by wgdsr »

Typical Lax Dad wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:17 pm
wgdsr wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:05 pm
njbill wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:33 pm Sabato has AZ, PA, NC, WI, MI, and GA going blue.

He was one of the prognosticators in 2016 who really got hammered because his projections were off. Suspect he is really trying to be correct this time. Otherwise, the old crystal ball is going to look more like that of a fortune teller’s.

Hope he’s right.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5 ... georgia-nc
i think i have his email. gonna see if i can set the rules on a wager, long odds on the group coming in. could get expensive depending on his tastes, but i'll throw in a larger bet on nc to hedge:
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NC.html

total registered are 2.6 d, 2.2 r, 2.45 i, with other parties as well. r's have ground to make up and who knows on independents, but covid is raging.

in person has been about even so far, but raleigh-durham looks tapped. cunningham's liasons probably don't help. lose the military bump and the "we don't cheat on our spouse" baptists.
I am in the “I” category but this year...straight Dem ticket. First time ever.
what's your problem with democrats?
Typical Lax Dad
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Re: 2020 Elections - Dems vs Trumpublicons

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

jhu72 wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:23 pm

..... GOT PLAYED
Pants down around his ankles with his pockets turned inside out.....been happening for years.
“I wish you would!”
wgdsr
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Re: 2020 Elections - Dems vs Trumpublicons

Post by wgdsr »

wgdsr wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:32 pm
njbill wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:12 pm Do you think the Baptists are going to ticket split?
what i was saying.
wait. i got that wrong. wrote too fast before i knew what i was answering.
they go 50:50 here. vs a break to cunningham and biden.
of course, it's impossible to know what percentage of peeps in by god north carolina heard of, forgot or forgive donnie's dalliances. cunningham, however, is certainly making the news.
njbill
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Re: 2020 Elections - Dems vs Trumpublicons

Post by njbill »

So Donnie’s rapes (including the 13 yr old) are OK with the Bible thumpers while Cunningham’s consensual affair (or maybe only naughty texting) with an adult isn’t. Got it.
wgdsr
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Re: 2020 Elections - Dems vs Trumpublicons

Post by wgdsr »

njbill wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:44 pm So Donnie’s rapes (including the 13 yr old) are OK with the Bible thumpers while Cunningham’s consensual affair (or maybe only naughty texting) with an adult isn’t. Got it.
do you rip nate silver for his predictions?
njbill
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Re: 2020 Elections - Dems vs Trumpublicons

Post by njbill »

Different subject. What predictions?
wgdsr
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Re: 2020 Elections - Dems vs Trumpublicons

Post by wgdsr »

njbill wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:48 pm Different subject. What predictions?
that's the good stuff right there, njbill.
still got your fastball.
Typical Lax Dad
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Re: 2020 Elections - Dems vs Trumpublicons

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

wgdsr wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:33 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:17 pm
wgdsr wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:05 pm
njbill wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:33 pm Sabato has AZ, PA, NC, WI, MI, and GA going blue.

He was one of the prognosticators in 2016 who really got hammered because his projections were off. Suspect he is really trying to be correct this time. Otherwise, the old crystal ball is going to look more like that of a fortune teller’s.

Hope he’s right.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5 ... georgia-nc
i think i have his email. gonna see if i can set the rules on a wager, long odds on the group coming in. could get expensive depending on his tastes, but i'll throw in a larger bet on nc to hedge:
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NC.html

total registered are 2.6 d, 2.2 r, 2.45 i, with other parties as well. r's have ground to make up and who knows on independents, but covid is raging.

in person has been about even so far, but raleigh-durham looks tapped. cunningham's liasons probably don't help. lose the military bump and the "we don't cheat on our spouse" baptists.
I am in the “I” category but this year...straight Dem ticket. First time ever.
what's your problem with democrats?
I don’t believe in group think. Some things I like about candidates somethings I don’t. Other than teams, I have never belonged to “group”. I have served on some boards that are community service/youth oriented but never been an “organization” man. I quit cub scouts.
“I wish you would!”
seacoaster
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Re: 2020 Elections - Dems vs Trumpublicons

Post by seacoaster »

You read a lot of stories like this about Duce:

https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a ... ssion=true

“On a brilliant spring afternoon in 2016, I stood in a classroom at a Secret Service training facility in Maryland, where I was to interview Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter. This was for a special issue of Popular Mechanics all about fathers and sons and the wisdom they pass along to each other, and the Bidens would be appearing on the cover.

They walked in, all smiles and handshakes, and we sat for more than two hours as they told stories: Hunter and his brother, Beau, three and four years old, taking turns sitting on Joe’s lap as he drove his ’67 Corvette through the backroads of Delaware. Painting the house when the boys were teenagers, Hunter dangling from the roof in a harness. Popular Mechanics stories.

They talked about the deaths of Joe’s first wife, Neilia, and their daughter, Naomi, in 1972; and of Beau, in 2015. Joe and Hunter talked about helping each other up, again and again and again, when the pain feels like it will never end.

One Sunday morning a few weeks after the interview, before the issue had even gone to press, my son, almost 7, awoke with a headache. His eyes began to close. It got worse quickly, and within an hour he was airlifted to a children’s hospital. My wife, Sarah, rode with him in the helicopter, and our other son and I drove 90 on the highway.

There was a brain surgery he almost didn’t survive. Then another. Doctors said words to us, and we tried to make sense of them.

Leukemia…aggressive…there was a hemorrhage…craniotomy…we just don’t know…

Sometime during the fever dream of that first week, an email came through: a PDF of the Biden interview, ready for the printer—these get sent around to the staff automatically. I read it, twice.

“We’ve always taken care of each other.”

Late at night, lying awake on the pull-out hospital bed, I sent a note to Hunter. I thanked him and his dad—their candor that day in Maryland, and the things they said, were replaying in my head. It was helping, and I just wanted him to know. I was trying to mute the terrifying words we were hearing in the hospital by amplifying their stories of getting back up again and again and again.

The next day I was sitting alone in my son’s room on the ICU—Sarah had gone for soup. His head was wrapped in gauze, his eyes swollen shut. Machines beeped softly around him, and he lay perfectly still under the hospital sheets.

Our boy.

Just then, my phone rang: a weird number. I answered. It was the sitting vice president of the United States.

“Ryan, it’s Joe Biden. Dammit I’m so sorry. What happened?”

I told him, as best I could, functioning as I was on little food or sleep. He spoke in detail of the brain aneurysm he had suffered in 1988, how it felt, what the doctors had done for him, and whether there were any similarities here. He offered to put me in touch with experts in the fields of cancer and brain injury. He was searching, asking questions, trying to be of use.

“I’m s’damn sorry, Ryan.”

The next day, he called again, this time with the name of someone he thought might be helpful.

A couple of months later, I got another call: The vice president was going to be in New York, and wanted to know whether it would be convenient for my wife and me to see him. Our son had been transferred to Memorial Sloan-Kettering for treatment, and one or both of us was with him day and night. But the nurses said they would look after him for an hour while we went across town to see Joe Biden.

We found ourselves in a small room off a ballroom at a hotel where he had just given a speech. There was no one in there, really—a couple of Secret Service agents, his scheduling person, a few others. He saw us, strode over, and the first thing he did was just hug us. Both of us at once, his long arms around us, tight, three people standing there as one for a good minute.

Our arms loosened, we stood back. His suit jacket was a little rumpled.

We waited for him to talk first. His eyes were wet, and he said, “How’s your boy?” Joe Biden was crying for us, because he knew how it was when the pain feels like it will never end.

There were no cameras. There was no one filming. He wasn’t running for anything. He was just doing what you do, as a human, even when no one’s watching.“
Last edited by seacoaster on Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:18 pm, edited 2 times in total.
wgdsr
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Re: 2020 Elections - Dems vs Trumpublicons

Post by wgdsr »

ggait wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:51 pm
and here i thought all the other legal beagles and verbose among us would've been utilizing this to effect for years.
Since I get accused from time to time (completely unjustified imo) of being verbose, my two most used acronyms are TL/DR and BLUF (which is more of an email thing than texting).
don't think you're verbose. that's just my opinion, though. can't say it's unjustified elsewhere, of course.
never heard of bluf. probably helps "up front" for you, before all the nonsense and legalese starts up on the back end.
njbill
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Re: 2020 Elections - Dems vs Trumpublicons

Post by njbill »

ggait wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:15 pm So he thinks Joe will do better in AZ than WI; more likely to win GA than FL; and more likely to win TX than OH.
Interesting. I would think Joe will do better in Wisconsin than Arizona. Feel pretty good about Wisconsin. I think Arizona will go blue, but I’m not sure.

I’ve felt better about Florida than Georgia, not because I think Florida is anywhere approaching safe, but because Georgia is more red than Florida. But Georgia has been closing fast so maybe he is right.

I wouldn’t even bet wg’s money on Florida. Now it looks like Trump may be doing unexpectedly better in some demographics and Joe might be doing the same in others. How is this all going to shake out? Maybe we will know in about 24 hours. My prediction, which is little more than a guess/hope, is that Joe ekes out a very tight victory in Florida. If he can win Georgia as well, that would be gravy.

TX over OH? Don’t know about that. I think both will be close, but that both will end up red.
CU88
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Re: 2020 Elections - Dems vs Trumpublicons

Post by CU88 »

njbill wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:28 pm
ggait wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:15 pm So he thinks Joe will do better in AZ than WI; more likely to win GA than FL; and more likely to win TX than OH.
Interesting. I would think Joe will do better in Wisconsin than Arizona. Feel pretty good about Wisconsin. I think Arizona will go blue, but I’m not sure.

I’ve felt better about Florida than Georgia, not because I think Florida is anywhere approaching safe, but because Georgia is more red than Florida. But Georgia has been closing fast so maybe he is right.

I wouldn’t even bet wg’s money on Florida. Now it looks like Trump may be doing unexpectedly better in some demographics and Joe might be doing the same in others. How is this all going to shake out? Maybe we will know in about 24 hours. My prediction, which is little more than a guess/hope, is that Joe ekes out a very tight victory in Florida. If he can win Georgia as well, that would be gravy.

TX over OH? Don’t know about that. I think both will be close, but that both will end up red.
With POTUS Obama in bot GA and FL today I think that they will be close once the votes are officially counted. I think that the general weather forecast is also good for both states, which will help get voters out and keep them in the long lines.
by cradleandshoot » Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:57 am
Mr moderator, deactivate my account.
You have heck this forum up to making it nothing more than a joke. I hope you are happy.
This is cradle and shoot signing out.
:roll: :roll: :roll:
wgdsr
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Re: 2020 Elections - Dems vs Trumpublicons

Post by wgdsr »

njbill wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:28 pm
ggait wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:15 pm So he thinks Joe will do better in AZ than WI; more likely to win GA than FL; and more likely to win TX than OH.
Interesting. I would think Joe will do better in Wisconsin than Arizona. Feel pretty good about Wisconsin. I think Arizona will go blue, but I’m not sure.

I’ve felt better about Florida than Georgia, not because I think Florida is anywhere approaching safe, but because Georgia is more red than Florida. But Georgia has been closing fast so maybe he is right.

I wouldn’t even bet wg’s money on Florida. Now it looks like Trump may be doing unexpectedly better in some demographics and Joe might be doing the same in others. How is this all going to shake out? Maybe we will know in about 24 hours. My prediction, which is little more than a guess/hope, is that Joe ekes out a very tight victory in Florida. If he can win Georgia as well, that would be gravy.

TX over OH? Don’t know about that. I think both will be close, but that both will end up red.
looks pretty freaking close in fla pregame.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

good news for dems is metro areas are not tapped anywhere. but are they coming out in the middle of a pandemic? also, republicans are skewed old as eff and used to mail in.

dems registered are 5.2 m, r's 5.0, indies 3.6. a ways to go, but a lot in the books. still... just a slim lead without knowing indies and covid is everywhere.
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