Orange Duce

[smoova]

If Trump loses, I wouldn't be surprised if he cut a deal for a full pardon from Biden in exchange for a peaceful transfer of power. Nobody is happy, but the nation moves forward.

Perhaps a small point, but Biden can't pardon Trump from the state charges.

And those are what are most likely to sink Trump, though there could be federal ones too. I doubt the next Administration will pursue the obstruction of justice charges that Mueller detailed, or other violations that could be seen as political matters, but the money stuff is likely to be pursued at the state level. Bank fraud, insurance fraud, even tax fraud at state level. Likely to see civil cases as well.

Fair point. I'd expect a Biden administration to encourage the AGs in those states (likely all Democratic) to go easy in their prosecution.

If Trump loses, I wouldn't be surprised if he cut a deal for a full pardon from Biden in exchange for a peaceful transfer of power. Nobody is happy, but the nation moves forward.

Biden would never pardon Trump in a million years. Nor should he. He would get impeached by the Democratic House.

Ford did it. I thought he was wrong at the time and still do.

Biden has already said that he will leave it to his justice department as to whether to prosecute Trump.

Trump would have no leverage to ask for a pardon. If he participated in a violent revolution or anything of the sort, he would be arrested, prosecuted, convicted, and jailed.

One often talked about scenario is that Trump would resign on, say, January 19. Pence would then pardon him. I think Pence would only do that if he has no future aspirations to run for president.

Also, some think Trump will pardon himself. He might, but that would never be upheld by the courts.

I don't think the Democrats will be thirsty for blood (or likely to impeach Biden) if they win the White House, so I think Biden would strongly consider pardoning Trump to avoid civil unrest. The Democrats have just witnessed the power of a party united behind a president, and I doubt they will squander the chance to repeat that scenario to their advantage.

Trump's leverage is his agreement to actively dissuade his followers from participating in a revolt; over the last 4 years, he's put on a master class on how to step up to, but not over, the line of inciting all kinds of lawless behavior without actually saying it (e.g. "Liberate Michigan").

I guess I've just seen far more "impossible" disputes resolved in the back room than in the court room. But then, I'm a lunch lawyer, not a real lawyer/litigator.

[MDlaxfan76]

It would have to be the quite the back room deal, and can anyone imagine Trump keeping his mouth shut? Would anyone on the Biden side trust him to do so???

Not me.

There will be nearly 3 months before Biden has any power to pardon at all, during which time Trump either concedes amicably...or not. And if he concedes, Biden can't actually pardon him for quite awhile...

I just don't see how it happens from a practical standpoint.

I do think Biden could be magnanimous about discouraging any politically oriented prosecution, but I think anything more than a generalized statement that the country has other more pressing priorities, much less reaching down to state levels, would backfire.

I think we're going to see all sorts of gnashing of teeth, wailing and whining, from Trump if the election goes very strongly to Biden. Unfair, Rigged. Cheating. And if it's close Trump will pull out ALL the stops, both illegally and beyond.

And we'll know all that pretty quickly.

[njbill]

I don't think the Democrats will be thirsty for blood (or likely to impeach Biden) if they win the White House, so I think Biden would strongly consider pardoning Trump to avoid civil unrest. The Democrats have just witnessed the power of a party united behind a president, and I doubt they will squander the chance to repeat that scenario to their advantage.

Trump's leverage is his agreement to actively dissuade his followers from participating in a revolt; over the last 4 years, he's put on a master class on how to step up to, but not over, the line of inciting all kinds of lawless behavior without actually saying it (e.g. "Liberate Michigan").

I guess I've just seen far more "impossible" disputes resolved in the back room than in the court room. But then, I'm a lunch lawyer, not a real lawyer/litigator.

My impeachment comment was facetious.

Again, I think there’s no chance Biden would ever pardon Trump.

I certainly don’t see Biden doing a deal whereby he pardons Trump in return for Trump telling his supporters to stop their violent insurrection. Hopefully there won’t be violence after the election, but if there is, it will have to be dealt with. It won’t be the first, second, or 10th time in the nation’s history that there have been violent uprisings to one degree or another.

Those who commit acts of violence will be arrested. Hopefully the bloodshed will be minimal. If Trump encourages or leads the violence, he will end up in jail. As he should. I’m not convinced, though, that he will be an active co-conspirator. He is a coward at heart and probably is savvy enough to realize that if he gets on the wrong side of the law, he’ll end up in jail.

As I mentioned, Biden has said he will let his justice department decide about prosecuting Trump. There will be a great debate in the country, no doubt, about whether the new administration should prosecute its predecessor.

Certainly there is a substantial argument that we don’t want our country acting like banana republics. But that is the general rule. This is an exception.

My take is that Trump should be prosecuted for the obstruction of justice crimes Mueller found he committed. That investigation was led by a Republican appointed by a Republican justice department. It would not be Biden investigating Trump, although it would be Biden prosecuting Trump using Republican gathered evidence. Mueller would have indicted Trump if the DOJ legal opinion didn’t exist.

I thought Ford’s pardon of Nixon was wrong. Nixon committed crimes. He should’ve been prosecuted.

A key precept of our democracy is that no man is above the law. That includes Trump. On the other hand, I don’t think he should be prosecuted for every single solitary crime he committed. For example, I don’t think he should be prosecuted for the crimes surrounding the circumstances that led to his impeachment.

But, as I said above, he should be prosecuted for obstruction of justice. Plus any tax evasion crimes the IRS is working on. The states should be free to prosecute him for anything they find appropriate.

[MDlaxfan76]

I agree with this.

I do think we're going to see a huge number of politically motivated, and/or financially motivated pardons by Trump over the next two months. Some will be pretty outrageous, but expected...I wouldn't be surprised if he did prospective pardons for his family members...though that would expose them to having to answer subpoenas, etc. Civil liability for the business could be a serious issue. And he can't pardon them for the state matters...

And I think we see him fire the FBI and CIA directors, as has been reported. Perhaps the AG too, but I suspect he keeps him until the end, though if Trump wins, he likely dumps Barr. That said, Barr could be instrumental in any legal battles to secure that win, so he might survive a while in that case.

It'll be interesting to see whether Biden considers bringing Wray and Haspel back...probably not, but it would be an interesting move. Particularly Wray as he's been on the hot seat more as a straight shooter and FBI gigs are supposed to persist beyond changes in the White House.

[smoova]

I don't think the Democrats will be thirsty for blood (or likely to impeach Biden) if they win the White House, so I think Biden would strongly consider pardoning Trump to avoid civil unrest. The Democrats have just witnessed the power of a party united behind a president, and I doubt they will squander the chance to repeat that scenario to their advantage.

Trump's leverage is his agreement to actively dissuade his followers from participating in a revolt; over the last 4 years, he's put on a master class on how to step up to, but not over, the line of inciting all kinds of lawless behavior without actually saying it (e.g. "Liberate Michigan").

I guess I've just seen far more "impossible" disputes resolved in the back room than in the court room. But then, I'm a lunch lawyer, not a real lawyer/litigator.

My impeachment comment was facetious.

Again, I think there’s no chance Biden would ever pardon Trump.

I certainly don’t see Biden doing a deal whereby he pardons Trump in return for Trump telling his supporters to stop their violent insurrection. Hopefully there won’t be violence after the election, but if there is, it will have to be dealt with. It won’t be the first, second, or 10th time in the nation’s history that there have been violent uprisings to one degree or another.

Those who commit acts of violence will be arrested. Hopefully the bloodshed will be minimal. If Trump encourages or leads the violence, he will end up in jail. As he should. I’m not convinced, though, that he will be an active co-conspirator. He is a coward at heart and probably is savvy enough to realize that if he gets on the wrong side of the law, he’ll end up in jail.

As I mentioned, Biden has said he will let his justice department decide about prosecuting Trump. There will be a great debate in the country, no doubt, about whether the new administration should prosecute its predecessor.

Certainly there is a substantial argument that we don’t want our country acting like banana republics. But that is the general rule. This is an exception.

My take is that Trump should be prosecuted for the obstruction of justice crimes Mueller found he committed. That investigation was led by a Republican appointed by a Republican justice department. It would not be Biden investigating Trump, although it would be Biden prosecuting Trump using Republican gathered evidence. Mueller would have indicted Trump if the DOJ legal opinion didn’t exist.

I thought Ford’s pardon of Nixon was wrong. Nixon committed crimes. He should’ve been prosecuted.

A key precept of our democracy is that no man is above the law. That includes Trump. On the other hand, I don’t think he should be prosecuted for every single solitary crime he committed. For example, I don’t think he should be prosecuted for the crimes surrounding the circumstances that led to his impeachment.

But, as I said above, he should be prosecuted for obstruction of justice. Plus any tax evasion crimes the IRS is working on. The states should be free to prosecute him for anything they find appropriate.

I agree with everything you've written, but we live in a nation and a time when "should" increasingly rarely aligns with "does."

[CU77]

I think Biden would strongly consider pardoning Trump to avoid civil unrest.

If Biden pardons Trump, I'm going to personally START some civil unrest.

[old salt]

Interesting what if's. One big inconsistency -- all the polls say Trump needs election day walk up votes to overcome mail in voting deficit by his supporters. That argues against him doing anything to disrupt election day voting.

[cradleandshoot]

I agree with this.

I do think we're going to see a huge number of politically motivated, and/or financially motivated pardons by Trump over the next two months. Some will be pretty outrageous, but expected...I wouldn't be surprised if he did prospective pardons for his family members...though that would expose them to having to answer subpoenas, etc. Civil liability for the business could be a serious issue. And he can't pardon them for the state matters...

And I think we see him fire the FBI and CIA directors, as has been reported. Perhaps the AG too, but I suspect he keeps him until the end, though if Trump wins, he likely dumps Barr. That said, Barr could be instrumental in any legal battles to secure that win, so he might survive a while in that case.

It'll be interesting to see whether Biden considers bringing Wray and Haspel back...probably not, but it would be an interesting move. Particularly Wray as he's been on the hot seat more as a straight shooter and FBI gigs are supposed to persist beyond changes in the White House.

Trump understands one thing, his moolah is to be made after he leaves the WH. You folks are all overthinking this. trump does not give a f**k about this country, he gives a f**k about making money. You folks have not figured this out yet? trumps lawyers can tie up all this legal bullchit in the courts until he is dead and gone. If the blood sucking parasites at the IRS could not nail him after 10 plus years, whatta ya think everybody else has a chance to nail him? Once again, you democrats think trump is stupid. He beat your ass to win 4 years in the WH. You folks think he can't drag out all these court cases until most of us here are dead and gone? Think about it. The IRS has not been able to nail him but the SDNY will succeed where the IRS has failed? Maybe they will... 20 years from now.

[njbill]

I’ll take the under.

[ggait]

Forget about Biden pardoning Trump.

Odds on Trump pardoning Trump?

[MDlaxfan76]

I agree with this.

I do think we're going to see a huge number of politically motivated, and/or financially motivated pardons by Trump over the next two months. Some will be pretty outrageous, but expected...I wouldn't be surprised if he did prospective pardons for his family members...though that would expose them to having to answer subpoenas, etc. Civil liability for the business could be a serious issue. And he can't pardon them for the state matters...

And I think we see him fire the FBI and CIA directors, as has been reported. Perhaps the AG too, but I suspect he keeps him until the end, though if Trump wins, he likely dumps Barr. That said, Barr could be instrumental in any legal battles to secure that win, so he might survive a while in that case.

It'll be interesting to see whether Biden considers bringing Wray and Haspel back...probably not, but it would be an interesting move. Particularly Wray as he's been on the hot seat more as a straight shooter and FBI gigs are supposed to persist beyond changes in the White House.

Trump understands one thing, his moolah is to be made after he leaves the WH. You folks are all overthinking this. trump does not give a f**k about this country, he gives a f**k about making money. You folks have not figured this out yet? trumps lawyers can tie up all this legal bullchit in the courts until he is dead and gone. If the blood sucking parasites at the IRS could not nail him after 10 plus years, whatta ya think everybody else has a chance to nail him? Once again, you democrats think trump is stupid. He beat your ass to win 4 years in the WH. You folks think he can't drag out all these court cases until most of us here are dead and gone? Think about it. The IRS has not been able to nail him but the SDNY will succeed where the IRS has failed? Maybe they will... 20 years from now.

You are certainly correct that Trump is all about the doh re me. Ego, money, insecurity.

But I'll take the bet that the legal actions are going to break through now.

[MDlaxfan76]

Interesting what if's. One big inconsistency -- all the polls say Trump needs election day walk up votes to overcome mail in voting deficit by his supporters. That argues against him doing anything to disrupt election day voting.

Depends on where, right?
It's not as if they don't know where to disrupt and where not.
There will still be a lot of voting on Tuesday in various districts with Dem concentrations...create disruption there and who knows, the whole state's voting could be thrown into disarray.

My own bet is we won't see the problems until Wednesday + and then where the vote was close.
I think Tuesday will probably come off ok, unless there are foreign actors messing with ransomware etc...

[CU88]

Interesting what if's. One big inconsistency -- all the polls say Trump needs election day walk up votes to overcome mail in voting deficit by his supporters. That argues against him doing anything to disrupt election day voting.

Classic example of White Privilege.

[old salt]

Interesting what if's. One big inconsistency -- all the polls say Trump needs election day walk up votes to overcome mail in voting deficit by his supporters. That argues against him doing anything to disrupt election day voting.

Classic example of White Privilege.

Howzat ?

[CU77]

Forget about Biden pardoning Trump.

Odds on Trump pardoning Trump?

99%

[DMac]

HTF does that work? The Prez, whether a shyster or not, pardons his own self?
Job comes with some pretty nice perks.

[calourie]

Interesting what if's. One big inconsistency -- all the polls say Trump needs election day walk up votes to overcome mail in voting deficit by his supporters. That argues against him doing anything to disrupt election day voting.

Classic example of White Privilege.

Howzat ?

I'll give it one more c'mon Salty, use your head. The issue is AK-47 toting Trumpers trying to make minorities feel unsafe to vote in vulnerable communities. Antifa can do the same thing to whites at inner city polling stations but the histories of voter intimidation are significantly different between the races. Think back a month or two ago with AK-47 wielding whites invading the Michigan statehouse to protest the governor's shutdowns, and what would have happened had blacks done the same. That's the white entitlement thing in a nutshell, and applies to a number of social situations and behaviors.

[old salt]

Interesting what if's. One big inconsistency -- all the polls say Trump needs election day walk up votes to overcome mail in voting deficit by his supporters. That argues against him doing anything to disrupt election day voting.

Classic example of White Privilege.

Howzat ?

I'll give it one more c'mon Salty, use your head. The issue is AK-47 toting Trumpers trying to make minorities feel unsafe to vote in vulnerable communities. Antifa can do the same thing to whites at inner city polling stations but the histories of voter intimidation are significantly different between the races. Think back a month or two ago with AK-47 wielding whites invading the Michigan statehouse to protest the governor's shutdowns, and what would have happened had blacks done the same. That's the white entitlement thing in a nutshell, and applies to a number of social situations and behaviors.

That's assuming widespread presence of AK-47 wielding Trump supporters. Apparently the experts on both MSNBC & FNC who say early voting favors Biden, & election day turnout benefits Trump, do not see that as a realistic threat. Today CNN experts also said early voting favors the Dems. A few nuts in Michigan (who harmed no one) have created more mass hysteria then Orson Welles did with War of the Worlds.

On the other hand, how will the recent unrest in Philly impact turnout. That's why the city is withholding the police body cam tapes until after the election.

I'm more worried about Russian little green men paratroopers dropping in on the polling places.

Be afraid. Be very afraid.
https://www.c-span.org/video/?477206-1/ ... n-melchior
...beware of White Supremacist groups who offer airport pickup, child care & marriage counseling.
The Trial of Governor Whitmer

[njbill]

On the other hand, how will the recent unrest in Philly impact turnout. That's why the city is withholding the police body cam tapes until after the election.

Tapes are being withheld with the agreement of the Wallace family.

My guess is the unrest won’t impact turn out, but we shall see. If there still is unrest by next week, most of it will be after the polls have closed.

A lot of people have already voted. Also, there are a large number of drop boxes in the city for mail in ballots. While it would be unwise to put your ballot in the mail at this late date, people can still do so legally. Of course, there is a chance the Supreme Court could disallow votes received after election day, although I think that is unlikely.

[CU77]

HTF does that work? The Prez, whether a shyster or not, pardons his own self?
Job comes with some pretty nice perks.

Sure does.

The self-pardon idea has never been tested. But rubber-stamping it is what Frozen Trucker, Renate Alumnus, and Large Dogma were hired to do.

It's also claimed that the pardon doesn't apply to state crimes, but that's also never been tested. The law is whatever those three (plus Sammy and Silent Clarence) say it is.