THE 2019 Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

[stupefied]

Williams busted sss preventing a goal by Cuse lsm who ran past everyone else. Not sure how Williams defensive effort is questioned there.

[51percentcorn]

In response to Wheels' question - I think the Doomsday Scenario - lose to UVA, lose at least 4 of the Big 10 games,finish season no better than 5-8 could get the alums who count to say that is unacceptable. And I for one am not putting tonight, this Saturday and any BIG game in the win column ahead of time. I think alot matters if there is a perception the team gives up and if they receive red headed step child beatings by Penn State and Maryland for example. He usually has a contract extension by now. With only 1 year left it would be much more palatable to buy his contract out. If Dave got the signal 2020 was IT regardless, I can't see him staying and he would try to negotiate his way out

As far as the nominated heir apparent, a perusal of the internet shows a quote that Nadalen's Towson salary was $172,000 a couple years ago. So I think there's real questions about how much more Hopkins could/would offer and if he would even be interested. Recruiting at Towson in some ways could be easier than Hopkins. People seem to forget that even if you are the Cat's PJs and get a 25% scholarship to Hopkins your parents still have to dig around in the couch cushions for let's say $60,000 a year.

[steel_hop]

I am interested in getting the boards' thoughts on a conversation that many Maryland fans on a different site had over Petro's future at Hopkins. There's some broad agreement that had he not gotten to the quarterfinals last season that he wouldn't have been back this year. Again, that's a total outside the Hopkins bubble take on the program. If the wheels fall off this year...like a 1-4, miss the B1G tournament kind of season, do you all think he's back next season? Of course, that's worst case scenario. Just curious as to what you all think. I could see the Hopkins administration making the move to get Nads, but, again, I'm a total outsider to the JHU culture.

Most will know from LP that I thought Petro should have been canned 6-7 years ago, when he started to implode against peer programs - he hasn't fixed that. The team repeatedly has holes all over the place - if it isn't defense, it is the offense, or poor stick skills.... The team can't ever seem to understand the role of getting big fast and physical SSDM, but that's okay because the defensive scheme is beyond perplexing and repeatedly results in open guys for easy shots.

Since Hopkins has fallen apart (my mark has always been the 2008 year) the only constant has been Petro, Dwan and Benson. As I have said before if Benson was so good on offensive mind, why hasn't some lower tier school picked up to be their HC. To me that is telling that outside of the Hopkins community, not many people give much credence to the coaching at Hopkins. Dwan is just a guy that acts as a buffer between Petro and the players and really has no authority or input on game plans.

Nothing from 6-7 years ago has changed in my mind beyond it is only getting worse. Outside of one year, when one kid put the team on his back to get to the semis (and the only time the team won a QF game without a Harrison, Rabil, Schwartzman on the team), the team hasn't been competitive in the NCAAs against in over a decade. They've made 1 FF in 11 years and this year will be 12. Why that earns Petro some type of lifetime job protection is beyond me?

When LP was in existence, last spring, I believe someone stated that there were certainly some big players in the Hopkins lax community that weren't happy with the situation. I doubt the shellacking by Duke in the playoffs last year and the current miserable display on the field has assuaged those voices. Further, it shouldn't have gone unnoticed that Petro typically gets his deal re-up at least 2 years from when it ends. That didn't happen this time so I'd say his seat is getting hot and if it goes bad this year I'd wager some money he gets his last year bought out. It also shouldn't go unnoticed that his last reworking of his deal was when TC was the AD and now there is a new AD in Shanahan who isn't likely as beholden to his hiring.

Saying that, he should have pushed more for the Michigan job. It would have been better for everyone.

[steel_hop]

But we're less than a year removed from a Big Ten championship, which may have earned some more leeway. The team has won 50% of the conference titles, despite the lack of success in the NCAA tournament...a miracle 2015 run notwithstanding.

You point to exactly the reason I thought the B!G movement would be used. To justify Petro's doing a good job. "Hey, we won a conference tournament title." How far have the mighty fallen that a conference title is any justification that the program is moving in the right direction.

Big F'n deal. Hopkins should be concerned about National Titles. Conference titles aren't worth jack squat.

[viper]

I agree with the poster who blamed ER more that the MIAA for Hopkins recent woes. I can tell you from my association with a specific MIAA school that there are/were several players who were "committed" to D1 programs before their freshman year lacrosse season ever started. By the time graduation rolled around, some of them were UA All Americans and some didn't pan out for one reason or another. However MOST went on to the D1 programs they committed to years earlier even if they couldn't break the starting lineup for their senior year teams.

There are game changing players all over D1 right now from the MIAA, and every year there are still families that relocate from areas around the country to enroll their kids in an MIAA program because of the competition, the coaching and numerous other characteristics that make them better players and athletes.

I suspect that the changes in recruiting rules will take a few years to fully impact a school like Hopkins (who filled classes very early), but when they do it will only improve the current situation. It's very hard to predict what a 13 year old will play like or even look like (ht/wt) at 18.

[viper]

Since we are once again back on the "what happened" thread to the once storied Blue Jays, I wanted to raise one area that never gets mentioned. I wonder if it's coincidental that Hopkins started to fall off the map once the impact of Seth Tierney disappeared from the equation. Despite leaving after 2006, his influence was still strong for the 2007 season with upperclassmen like Rabil, Peyser and Huntley (et al) having his direction as they grew as players. It was after that, under Benson's watch that we starting seeing the offense fail to live up to their potential, fail to develop with experience, etc.

It's getting to the point where there is plenty of talent in HS to spread around. It's not just about getting the best recruiting class in terms of rankings, its about getting the right parts together to build a team and then being able to develop that talent. I wouldn't be averse to giving guys like Nadelan or Tierney a chance if they were interested, but maybe Petro just needs better "help" than he has had over the past few years.

[viper]

Just another point about the MIAA stuff. Everyone credits Nadelan with developing all this public school talent when in fact 1/3 of his roster is from the MIAA (1 St Mary's, 4 St Pauls, 1 BL, 4 Loyola, 5 CHC) and DC Area prep schools (1 Landon, 1 Gonzaga).

I agree with the poster who blamed ER more that the MIAA for Hopkins recent woes. I can tell you from my association with a specific MIAA school that there are/were several players who were "committed" to D1 programs before their freshman year lacrosse season ever started. By the time graduation rolled around, some of them were UA All Americans and some didn't pan out for one reason or another. However MOST went on to the D1 programs they committed to years earlier even if they couldn't break the starting lineup for their senior year teams.

There are game changing players all over D1 right now from the MIAA, and every year there are still families that relocate from areas around the country to enroll their kids in an MIAA program because of the competition, the coaching and numerous other characteristics that make them better players and athletes.

I suspect that the changes in recruiting rules will take a few years to fully impact a school like Hopkins (who filled classes very early), but when they do it will only improve the current situation. It's very hard to predict what a 13 year old will play like or even look like (ht/wt) at 18.

[foreverlax]

Everyone credits Nadelan with developing all this public school talent....

He has...

.... when in fact 1/3 of his roster is from the MIAA

I think what Nads has done extremely well, develop the "best of the rest" to be on "par" with those players ranked on IL...he doesn't care where you went to school or if you played for Crabs or FCA.

[johnnyonthegunpowder]

https://soundcloud.com/glennclarkradioc ... ch-11-2019

For MIAA and local college lax talk, I enjoy this radio show.

[laxpert]

Random Thoughts
Hopkins is not alone in its struggles to get back to the top. UNC, SU, and UVA all find themselves outside the top ten replaced by the likes of High Point, Yale and Towson.

I don’t know what to call it, early recruiting or recruiting by ranking but it has impacted traditional powers. Shack Stanwick was ranked number one recruit and had an outstanding career at JHU. Ben Reeves was a lightly recruited Hobart commit until a late switch to Yale. He became a 3X first team AA and Tewaaraton winner. There’s just an abundance of talent out there today.

Homewood lost some of its cachet and mystique when traditional April opponents were replaced by B1G conference play.

And your indoor practice facility is where? JHU has good DIII facilities in a DI world.

Danowski just turned 65. Anyone that might be a candidate for JHU is also watching the developments in Durham. I believe Nadelen is up for a contract this year. If I were his agent my starting point to move 5 miles south would be Tills contract.Tillman earned a $52,500 bonus for leading the men's team's NCAA tournament run, including $25,000 for the title game victory. Tillman also received $12,500 for Maryland's outright Big Ten regular season title and Big Ten tournament title.
That tally came in addition to a base salary of $275,000 and supplemental annual income of $75,000. In total, Tillman earned $415,000. Nads has got a good thing going with instate cost of attendance at 25K for TU vs 70K at JHU. I will defer to the FAFSA experts on what the true cost is to attend these schools

[OCanada]

Your point of cost differential is spot on. Another factor is Hookins academics.

Last year Michael Bloomberg gave Hopkins something like 1.5 billion to get its financial aid program to a level it could accept any student based on merit rather than having to take some based on ability to pay. That should level the playing field. I remember speaking with the very successful father of two players who both went on to become first teamers at an ACC school. He ran through the numbers with me and concluded it was not worth 250k to him to send his kids to JHU because he didn’t believe it made that much difference as graduate degrees began to move to the priority position.

JHU has a reputation on the recruiting circuit as being harder to stay in once you get there than other schools. I asked a. Our players from a decade ago why they chose the Ivy they chose over Hopkins. They both replied because they would have to work harder to stay in school at Hopkins

[HopFan16]

When LP was in existence, last spring, I believe someone stated that there were certainly some big players in the Hopkins lax community that weren't happy with the situation. I doubt the shellacking by Duke in the playoffs last year and the current miserable display on the field has assuaged those voices.

I know it would better fit your narrative if that was a shellacking—but it was not. That was a one-goal game at one point in the 4th quarter before Duke pulled away at the end. The stats support a fairly even affair:

Shots: Hop 44, Duke 42
Saves: Hop 9, Duke 11
Turnovers: Hop 8, Duke 9
Clears: Hop 14-16, Duke 13-15
GBs: Hop 24, Duke 26
Faceoffs: Hop 7, Duke 18
EMO: Hop 3-8, Duke 0-2

Duke was (and still is) a better team, and deserved to win. But "shellacking" it was not. 2017, yes. 2018, no.

I do however agree with your point about Shanahan—I think the odds of Petro's tenure ending increased when she was hired.

Since we are once again back on the "what happened" thread to the once storied Blue Jays, I wanted to raise one area that never gets mentioned. I wonder if it's coincidental that Hopkins started to fall off the map once the impact of Seth Tierney disappeared from the equation. Despite leaving after 2006, his influence was still strong for the 2007 season with upperclassmen like Rabil, Peyser and Huntley (et al) having his direction as they grew as players. It was after that, under Benson's watch that we starting seeing the offense fail to live up to their potential, fail to develop with experience, etc.

It's getting to the point where there is plenty of talent in HS to spread around. It's not just about getting the best recruiting class in terms of rankings, its about getting the right parts together to build a team and then being able to develop that talent. I wouldn't be averse to giving guys like Nadelan or Tierney a chance if they were interested, but maybe Petro just needs better "help" than he has had over the past few years.

Yeah...I don't think so. If Tierney was such an integral part of those championship teams then why has Hofstra failed to make an NCAA tournament since 2011? Seems like they have a losing record every other year. Had a little bit of success early on but they're now going on a decade without a postseason berth. The only player with double digits points through 6 games this year is his son.

[flalax22]

A short comment on moving DeSimone off the first midfield. Don't.

For whatever reason, he has been much less aggressive than he was last year or in HS.

I saw him weekly at Smithtown East and two things he never lacked was confidence and a willingness to shoot. Last year too, he was willing to attack the cage at every opportunity.

NCAA is a long way from Smithtown East. Let us all remember every kid on the roster was a "star" in their high school league.

[flalax22]

cole williams has 12 turnovers in 5 games and 6 goals.

Pretty sure you've now cited this specific statistic on three separate occasions. We're well aware how many turnovers the kid has. Your overall point is mostly correct—yes, he needs to take better care of the ball. He's a dodging attackman so some turnovers come with the territory but certainly, sure, he can afford to cut down on them. But you're laying it on a bit thick. As one of two, maybe three guys who have demonstrated the ability to beat their man and score, he's not coming out of the lineup.

Out of the lineup is ridiculous thinking.

I would however put him at midfield. Tough to see him struggle, needs to get more short sticks.

[flalax22]

But we're less than a year removed from a Big Ten championship, which may have earned some more leeway. The team has won 50% of the conference titles, despite the lack of success in the NCAA tournament...a miracle 2015 run notwithstanding.

You point to exactly the reason I thought the B!G movement would be used. To justify Petro's doing a good job. "Hey, we won a conference tournament title." How far have the mighty fallen that a conference title is any justification that the program is moving in the right direction.

Big F'n deal. Hopkins should be concerned about National Titles. Conference titles aren't worth jack squat.

I have to believe most lacrosse alumni feel the same way. Nobody cares about B1G. They care about final fours and championships.

[Wheels]

Although I'm not a Hopkins fan, I find that I am among my people here on this thread!

Hopkins will always maintain relevancy in lacrosse in the same way that Notre Dame does in football and Kentucky does in basketball. Lacrosse is such a part of the culture and identity of Hopkins.

Again, speaking as an outsider but still having a bias for that team in College Park, talking about the midfield trouble at Hopkins needs a distinction. On defense, your rope unit has struggled this year. Size and athleticism in the SSDMs seems more of the problem than the LSM group. I'm sure I'll get push back on this, but I've never been a huge fan of Jones as a SSDM. He will play well in a game but then not show up for a couple of games. He's not the biggest guy but has good athleticism. So the defensive midfield issue looks different to my non-Blue Jay eyes. I've read you all talking about the complex scheme being an issue, but to me it looks like a personnel problem.

The offensive side, however, looks to me to be a scheme issue and not a personnel issue. The offense is a lot like Penn State's. Lots of movement, lots of complementary pieces that serve specific functions within the scheme. Marr is a shooter, the best pure shooter in the game since Ryan Brown, IMO. Williams is the finisher. Neither are really ball carrying threats, especially in the shot clock era where Williams can't bull dodge/back down defenders and redodge after the ball moves around and gets back to him. Without Stanwick and Tinney to get the defense spinning and to know where the open will be 2 or 3 passes ahead of time, the offense in general gets bogged down. When Ament was hurt last season, PSU's offense wasn't as good. It also reminds me of Denver's offense. Without Baptiste tilting the field, Denver's lack of dodgers has hurt their offense.

When Hopkins made their run against Duke in the tournament, they did it off of a lot of transition. This is probably where the two midfield issues combine this year. Are the defensive midfield positions (including LSMs) good at getting into transition? If I wanted to take the pressure off of the offense, I'd be pushing pace like crazy. I haven't seen enough of Hopkins to know.

Anyway, I'll stop pestering you all and stick more to the Terps' board!

[OCanada]

HopFan 16. Tierney was a very big part of the success. Very.

The best example of the problem with Hofstra is Danowski. He was on the verge of being let go at Hofstra. He goes to Duke and we can all see what having talent can do for a coach. The problem with Hofstra is getting talent to stay home which is a big hurdle and attracting kids to LI to play

[DMac]

Just trying to make it easy for you Hop fans to gt to this evening's game, just click on the camera on the right on this schedule and it'll take you right to ESPN3.
http://www.mountathletics.com/sports/ml ... 9/schedule
Won't find that option on the Hopkins schedule...WTH is that all about?

[Hawkeye]

This team better wake up. NOW.

[viper]

This team better wake up. NOW.

Epstein unassisted is all the offense has right now.