LaxPower Back-Up Stick

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 8:35 am Congrats jhu06, you're back out of the basement of the FanLax poster rankings. A familiar face is back in the cellar, where he's likely to stay for awhile. This is next-level pathology

-Thought I was going to get red flagged with my Daniels posts earlier this week. I don't really follow the recruiting the way some of you do so my takes that so many of you hate with the passion of spending a saturday night on d level don't flow as easily when the leaves are falling.

-Very super cool video from the kid and that lacrosse media producer. Just goes to show you how IL is sleeping on ways to make good content. Obviously his brother was a factor there from the comments, we don't have any NFL Hall of Famers-that sounds like a Notre Dame pitch since Scott Milanovich isn't getting a jacket in canton, you see the Rabil and Harrison factors with his picture with Rabil as a young kid and the comment about Tewaaraton guys calling. You see the Bob or Bobby Benson factor with Providence getting on his expanded list. Benson always sounded incredibly relatable on the podcasts and media he did. Going to be fascinating to see how fast he gets the Friars loaded with talent. Crawley seems like he has a similar relatability to kids and people in general from an outside perspective. Petro must have had some kind of pitch to these kiddos 15 years ago-titles, espn, belichek, academics, location, charismatic legends like Rabil and Harrison the kids idolized, the passion of this forum, cornell willis, gorgeous cheerleaders, the band. Impressive Loyola was able to rise up in that shadow and do their do.

Sagittarius A* wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 10:14 am

coda wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 8:58 am
UVA has been the top program for quite some time. They have success, solid education, and a beautiful campus. Lars has the easiest sell in all of lacrosse. UVa is not competing with 60 programs. Its really just a handful at most.

There's actually probably at least a dozen teams out there with great academics, great facilities and great lacrosse.
ACC teams, Ivies, and a number of others etc.

So I ran the numbers. It's basically the probability of hitting a target 5 times out of 7 given the probability of success is 0.1 (maybe you're shooting artillery or something)

So the probability of hitting the target least 5 times out of 7 would be about : .0002

or about 1 chance in 5000 given some kind of level playing field.

If I confine the analysis to maybe 5 top teams (0.2 chance of success), then you get a probability of hitting at least 5 out of 7 of: .005

or about one chance in 200, or about half of a percent.

These kinds of stats indicate the playing field is not level, or the game is rigged.
Numbers don't lie.

.

UVA has gotten the last 3 #1s, but one of those was a legacy. Everyone knew he was going there. Sign 1 Millon and you knew the other was going there. There are not dozen teams that have a similar pitch. That is just silly. I would love to hear the 12 teams that can match their pitch. I can only think of 1, that is Duke.

coda wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 11:45 am

Sagittarius A* wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 10:14 am

coda wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 8:58 am
UVA has been the top program for quite some time. They have success, solid education, and a beautiful campus. Lars has the easiest sell in all of lacrosse. UVa is not competing with 60 programs. Its really just a handful at most.

There's actually probably at least a dozen teams out there with great academics, great facilities and great lacrosse.
ACC teams, Ivies, and a number of others etc.

So I ran the numbers. It's basically the probability of hitting a target 5 times out of 7 given the probability of success is 0.1 (maybe you're shooting artillery or something)

So the probability of hitting the target least 5 times out of 7 would be about : .0002

or about 1 chance in 5000 given some kind of level playing field.

If I confine the analysis to maybe 5 top teams (0.2 chance of success), then you get a probability of hitting at least 5 out of 7 of: .005

or about one chance in 200, or about half of a percent.

These kinds of stats indicate the playing field is not level, or the game is rigged.
Numbers don't lie.

.

UVA has gotten the last 3 #1s, but one of those was a legacy. Everyone knew he was going there. Sign 1 Millon and you knew the other was going there. There are not dozen teams that have a similar pitch. That is just silly. I would love to hear the 12 teams that can match their pitch. I can only think of 1, that is Duke.

not to mention schutz wasn't the number 1 on signing day. mcadorey was. after o'neill. and of course millon was originally duke until he wasn't. sounds like congressional investigation level.

Shellenberger grew up in Charlottesville too. We don't need to relitigate that whole saga but bottom line is, they had an advantage with him as well.

You've got to just tip your hat to UVA. It seems like a great place to go to school and play lacrosse. It's got pretty much everything a recruit could want. Only thing I can think of is it's not exactly a quick drive to any major cities/metro areas (2.5 hour drive to DC) so if you ever get stir crazy on campus there isn't an easy escape as other schools have, but that's usually not something super high on recruits' wish lists. It is really, really hard to recruit against them — most of the other ACCs have kept up relatively well (especially this year) but there's one in particular that has and will continue to struggle IMO. And now with the recent titles, the recruiting success just builds on itself. Only thing I could see breaking the pattern is if Lars leaves for some reason (doesn't seem likely) and they botch the hire.

51 — I think it's the Hop women playing the US U20 team that weekend unless I missed an email. Should just be the Jays vs. Richmond straight up on the 14th. But before that we've got Lehigh and Hofstra this Saturday in Hempstead

Take your p values and put them where the sun doesn't shine because they have no relevance here.
1. I believe any statistician - even if this was something that could be measured by probabilities and statistics - would tell you 5 kids in 7 years is a sample size incredibly too small to draw any conclusions
2. This is not flipping an evenly weighted coin or drawing out lottery numbers - these are people making incredibly personal and subjective decisions
3. 2 of the 5 are BROTHERS
4. 1 of the 5 grew up in Charlottesville - attended a majority of his high schoool @ STAB in Charlottesville and immediately committed to UVA after resolving their head coach issue
5. This #1 ranking is absolute nonsense and means nothing - maybe even more subjective than the college decisions - who died and left TX in charge? I could easily proclaim myself a lacrosse expert go back over the last 7 years and take Brennan O'Neill/McAdorey/Benn Johnston/McCarthy & Ortlieb etc. etc and say Duke has had the #1 recruit 5 of the last 7 years - How am I wrong? I'll make it easy for you - I'm not

'16 - thanks for the clarification - missed the "W" when looking at schedules

51percentcorn wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 12:51 pm Take your p values and put them where the sun doesn't shine because they have no relevance here.
1. I believe any statistician - even if this was something that could be measured by probabilities and statistics - would tell you 5 kids in 7 years is a sample size incredibly too small to draw any conclusions
2. This is not flipping an evenly weighted coin or drawing out lottery numbers - these are people making incredibly personal and subjective decisions
3. 2 of the 5 are BROTHERS
4. 1 of the 5 grew up in Charlottesville - attended a majority of his high schoool @ STAB in Charlottesville and immediately committed to UVA after resolving their head coach issue
5. This #1 ranking is absolute nonsense and means nothing - maybe even more subjective than the college decisions - who died and left TX in charge? I could easily proclaim myself a lacrosse expert go back over the last 7 years and take Brennan O'Neill/McAdorey/Benn Johnston/McCarthy & Ortlieb etc. etc and say Duke has had the #1 recruit 5 of the last 7 years - How am I wrong? I'll make it easy for you - I'm not

'16 - thanks for the clarification - missed the "W" when looking at schedules

Milliman has a winning season, settled staff, extension, program alumni support, wins over maryland and petro (x2), 21 seniors this season, mostly positive for now fan lax message board, and administration that owes him for screwing up his first season. He's going to win more of these recruiting battles and his chances are better now than they were 12 months ago.

51 just to clarify, my "Bronson Kelly/Marshall Burkhardt poster child for why the team didn't go further last year and have concerns about this years club" is not Bauer specifically it's the 2024 class of midfielders headlined by Grimes and Peshko. Again I don't know injury situations like many of you but chauvette is also in there.

For those of you in the Morgan State family we are thinking of your community today. Very sad news. Also the Hopkins alum killed last week in Baltimore.

51percentcorn wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 12:51 pm Take your p values and put them where the sun doesn't shine because they have no relevance here.
1. I believe any statistician - even if this was something that could be measured by probabilities and statistics - would tell you 5 kids in 7 years is a sample size incredibly too small to draw any conclusions
2. This is not flipping an evenly weighted coin or drawing out lottery numbers - these are people making incredibly personal and subjective decisions
3. 2 of the 5 are BROTHERS
4. 1 of the 5 grew up in Charlottesville - attended a majority of his high schoool @ STAB in Charlottesville and immediately committed to UVA after resolving their head coach issue
5. This #1 ranking is absolute nonsense and means nothing - maybe even more subjective than the college decisions - who died and left TX in charge? I could easily proclaim myself a lacrosse expert go back over the last 7 years and take Brennan O'Neill/McAdorey/Benn Johnston/McCarthy & Ortlieb etc. etc and say Duke has had the #1 recruit 5 of the last 7 years - How am I wrong? I'll make it easy for you - I'm not

'16 - thanks for the clarification - missed the "W" when looking at schedules

Ignorance is indeed bliss.
Don't you agree that recruiting should be fair, a level playing field, and everyone playing by the same rules?
Should we just ignore evidence of defaults?
It's pretty clear that we've been affected here, even for those who prefer to live with blinders on.
Where is Doc when you need him?

51percentcorn wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 12:51 pm Take your p values and put them where the sun doesn't shine because they have no relevance here.
1. I believe any statistician - even if this was something that could be measured by probabilities and statistics - would tell you 5 kids in 7 years is a sample size incredibly too small to draw any conclusions
2. This is not flipping an evenly weighted coin or drawing out lottery numbers - these are people making incredibly personal and subjective decisions
3. 2 of the 5 are BROTHERS
4. 1 of the 5 grew up in Charlottesville - attended a majority of his high schoool @ STAB in Charlottesville and immediately committed to UVA after resolving their head coach issue
5. This #1 ranking is absolute nonsense and means nothing - maybe even more subjective than the college decisions - who died and left TX in charge? I could easily proclaim myself a lacrosse expert go back over the last 7 years and take Brennan O'Neill/McAdorey/Benn Johnston/McCarthy & Ortlieb etc. etc and say Duke has had the #1 recruit 5 of the last 7 years - How am I wrong? I'll make it easy for you - I'm not

'16 - thanks for the clarification - missed the "W" when looking at schedules

dont forget this one.

https://wuvanews.com/justin-duenkel-a-u ... tradition/

https://virginiasports.com/player/justin-duenkel/

You dont have to watch the video. The title pretty much gives the plot away

Justin Duenkel a UVa football family tradition

Sagittarius A* wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 1:28 pm

51percentcorn wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 12:51 pm Take your p values and put them where the sun doesn't shine because they have no relevance here.
1. I believe any statistician - even if this was something that could be measured by probabilities and statistics - would tell you 5 kids in 7 years is a sample size incredibly too small to draw any conclusions
2. This is not flipping an evenly weighted coin or drawing out lottery numbers - these are people making incredibly personal and subjective decisions
3. 2 of the 5 are BROTHERS
4. 1 of the 5 grew up in Charlottesville - attended a majority of his high schoool @ STAB in Charlottesville and immediately committed to UVA after resolving their head coach issue
5. This #1 ranking is absolute nonsense and means nothing - maybe even more subjective than the college decisions - who died and left TX in charge? I could easily proclaim myself a lacrosse expert go back over the last 7 years and take Brennan O'Neill/McAdorey/Benn Johnston/McCarthy & Ortlieb etc. etc and say Duke has had the #1 recruit 5 of the last 7 years - How am I wrong? I'll make it easy for you - I'm not

'16 - thanks for the clarification - missed the "W" when looking at schedules

Ignorance is indeed bliss.
Don't you agree that recruiting should be fair, a level playing field, and everyone playing by the same rules?
Should we just ignore evidence of defaults?
It's pretty clear that we've been affected here, even for those who prefer to live with blinders on.
Where is Doc when you need him?

wt living f are u talking about?!? after your last posts on nc$$ investigations and civil suits, i was convinced u were clowning us. you're actually not? your school... very likely... has more money to give recruits than anyone else even @ a private # [very few virginia recruits @ uva or nc @ nc, etc] with the flip on stacking schollies. every school gets 12.6 athletic max. all? of these kids have been going to expensive private schools... for years!!! should it be noted again hop hasn't sniffed the ff since this year's class was in 2nd grade (ok, 3rd for the privates)?

and your base case of following an ex-volleyball player's ranking (a tough , imperfect and impossible job even with an army of evaluators) on in effect high school sophs is downright comical. is it even possible you're worked up about this?

jhu06 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 1:20 pm 51 just to clarify, my "Bronson Kelly/Marshall Burkhardt poster child for why the team didn't go further last year and have concerns about this years club" is not Bauer specifically it's the 2024 class of midfielders headlined by Grimes and Peshko. Again I don't know injury situations like many of you but chauvette is also in there.

Peshko scored twice in the quarterfinals vs. Notre Dame — that was more than Pat Kavanagh and ND's alpha middie Dobson combined. Please tell me how he was "why the team didn't go further."

We didn't go further because we ran into the best team in the country, with the best goalie in the country, who outperformed our counterpart by 20 percentage points on the day. That was the biggest difference in the 3-goal margin. Most other stats were relatively even.

wgdsr wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 1:43 pm wt living f are u talking about?!? after your last posts on nc$$ investigations and civil suits, i was convinced u were clowning us. you're actually not?

Oh no wg... I used to think back when he was HA80 on Laxpower he might have been clowning and trying to troll/rile his own "tribe" so to speak but now am convinced he is not and it is as bad as it seems. "Warming Up the Goalie" is kind of all you need to know. His med levels must have a relationship to his thoughts on Milliman as I quote from a few months ago "the worst f'ing coach in the history of Hopkins lacrosse" - now it's Pete Pete He's Our Man if He Can't Recruit 4 stars no one can"

Black Hole - maybe this statistical analogy might help but I doubt it. 1,000 people walk into a grocery store and go down the cookie aisle to buy cookies (good place for them to be then the cookie aisle). There are 73 brands of cookies on the shelves. It is not a statistical certainty whatsoever that each brand of cookie receives the approximate same number of purchases. Just because 600-700 of the 1,000 might buy Oreos or Chips Ahoy doesn't mean we have to contact the Justice Department.

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 1:56 pm

jhu06 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 1:20 pm 51 just to clarify, my "Bronson Kelly/Marshall Burkhardt poster child for why the team didn't go further last year and have concerns about this years club" is not Bauer specifically it's the 2024 class of midfielders headlined by Grimes and Peshko. Again I don't know injury situations like many of you but chauvette is also in there.

Peshko scored twice in the quarterfinals vs. Notre Dame — that was more than Pat Kavanagh and ND's alpha middie Dobson combined. Please tell me how he was "why the team didn't go further."

We didn't go further because we ran into the best team in the country, with the best goalie in the country, who outperformed our counterpart by 20 percentage points on the day. That was the biggest difference in the 3-goal margin. Most other stats were relatively even.

'06 - you mention Bauer plenty - Hard to understand taking Grimes a 34 point mid-fielder to task. Brennan O'Neill was 1 for 9 in the National Championship with 2 turnovers and his one goal was man-up so 0-8 6v6 - Does he suck now? 16 I've made that point about Peshko several times before - no one responds. After halftime in the Hopkins Notre Dame game - face-offs dropped almost 40 percentage points - 84 to 45. Can't win taking 31 shots total on the nation's best goalie - you're likely only going to put about 20 or so on cage and therefore he only has to make 10-11 Saves to keep you to single digits - exactly what happened.

51percentcorn wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 2:54 pm

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 1:56 pm

jhu06 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 1:20 pm 51 just to clarify, my "Bronson Kelly/Marshall Burkhardt poster child for why the team didn't go further last year and have concerns about this years club" is not Bauer specifically it's the 2024 class of midfielders headlined by Grimes and Peshko. Again I don't know injury situations like many of you but chauvette is also in there.

Peshko scored twice in the quarterfinals vs. Notre Dame — that was more than Pat Kavanagh and ND's alpha middie Dobson combined. Please tell me how he was "why the team didn't go further."

We didn't go further because we ran into the best team in the country, with the best goalie in the country, who outperformed our counterpart by 20 percentage points on the day. That was the biggest difference in the 3-goal margin. Most other stats were relatively even.

'06 - you mention Bauer plenty - Hard to understand taking Grimes a 34 point mid-fielder to task. Brennan O'Neill was 1 for 9 in the National Championship with 2 turnovers and his one goal was man-up so 0-8 6v6 - Does he suck now? 16 I've made that point about Peshko several times before - no one responds. After halftime in the Hopkins Notre Dame game - face-offs dropped almost 40 percentage points - 84 to 45. Can't win taking 31 shots total on the nation's best goalie - you're likely only going to put about 20 or so on cage and therefore he only has to make 10-11 Saves to keep you to single digits - exactly what happened.

I think I've made my point and remade and rereremade my points there which I happen to be the only one that thinks that way. There are a lot of other narratives and stories around this team and issues-they graduated some really quality players that did things you can't just replace and probably won't.

coda wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 11:45 am

Sagittarius A* wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 10:14 am

coda wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 8:58 am
UVA has been the top program for quite some time. They have success, solid education, and a beautiful campus. Lars has the easiest sell in all of lacrosse. UVa is not competing with 60 programs. Its really just a handful at most.

There's actually probably at least a dozen teams out there with great academics, great facilities and great lacrosse.
ACC teams, Ivies, and a number of others etc.

So I ran the numbers. It's basically the probability of hitting a target 5 times out of 7 given the probability of success is 0.1 (maybe you're shooting artillery or something)

So the probability of hitting the target least 5 times out of 7 would be about : .0002

or about 1 chance in 5000 given some kind of level playing field.

If I confine the analysis to maybe 5 top teams (0.2 chance of success), then you get a probability of hitting at least 5 out of 7 of: .005

or about one chance in 200, or about half of a percent.

These kinds of stats indicate the playing field is not level, or the game is rigged.
Numbers don't lie.

.

UVA has gotten the last 3 #1s, but one of those was a legacy. Everyone knew he was going there. Sign 1 Millon and you knew the other was going there. There are not dozen teams that have a similar pitch. That is just silly. I would love to hear the 12 teams that can match their pitch. I can only think of 1, that is Duke.

Add three: HPY. Good thing their AI system sometimes prevents them from making their pitch.

Uh Oh - UVA just received a commitment from IL#2 (and another Top 50) Someone in Indianapolis is in for it.

51percentcorn wrote: ↑Thu Oct 05, 2023 8:53 am Uh Oh - UVA just received a commitment from IL#2 (and another Top 50) Someone in Indianapolis is in for it.

Where are you seeing that?

Speaking of commitments, Jays just got another 4-star: James Rost, middie out of emerging western PA power Shady Side Academy.

Up to nine 4-stars — four more than last year.

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 05, 2023 9:30 am

51percentcorn wrote: ↑Thu Oct 05, 2023 8:53 am Uh Oh - UVA just received a commitment from IL#2 (and another Top 50) Someone in Indianapolis is in for it.

Where are you seeing that?

Speaking of commitments, Jays just got another 4-star: James Rost, middie out of emerging western PA power Shady Side Academy.

Up to nine 4-stars — four more than last year.

Not sure it's been posted, but Merrill did commit to the 'Hoos

https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show ... wn-e2a6q1l

Denver opening regular season at Johns Hopkins

hmmm wrote: ↑Thu Oct 05, 2023 10:07 am

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 05, 2023 9:30 am

51percentcorn wrote: ↑Thu Oct 05, 2023 8:53 am Uh Oh - UVA just received a commitment from IL#2 (and another Top 50) Someone in Indianapolis is in for it.

Where are you seeing that?

Speaking of commitments, Jays just got another 4-star: James Rost, middie out of emerging western PA power Shady Side Academy.

Up to nine 4-stars — four more than last year.

Not sure it's been posted, but Merrill did commit to the 'Hoos

If true then you guys broke the news lol. Still isn't posted anywhere that I can find

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 05, 2023 9:30 am

51percentcorn wrote: ↑Thu Oct 05, 2023 8:53 am Uh Oh - UVA just received a commitment from IL#2 (and another Top 50) Someone in Indianapolis is in for it.

Where are you seeing that?

Speaking of commitments, Jays just got another 4-star: James Rost, middie out of emerging western PA power Shady Side Academy.

Up to nine 4-stars — four more than last year.

Nice pick-up. Guys who can shoot lefty from range are always welcome.