All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[MDlaxfan76]

We are unlikely to get good data, but what is happening in Brazil is another indication of the lethality when the virus is unchecked and health systems become overwhelmed.

NY had only a few days of actually being overwhelmed and only in some locations, but they were immensely stretched to the max for an extended period of time. No one had been down the experience curve on the management of the disease at that point. We're hearing that deaths of those intubated has dropped from 80% to 30%, so it's possible that we've learned how to manage seriously ill patients better and can do so when we can pay adequate attention to each patient who presents.

The problem is that while we've learned how to keep many from actually dying, especially younger patients, we're seeing all sorts of serious organ damage that's going to be a problem for the seriously ill ongoing. But most of the dying is among the most frail.

Italy was quite overwhelmed.

I would not be surprised if we learned that many in India had some immunity to this particular virus. We still don't know exactly where this virus actually originated, all we know really is where the first bloom of deaths hit (Wuhan) and some of the paths from there. And it may be that a similar enough virus had preexisted this one in India, etc. But that is way outside the box speculation.

[kramerica.inc]

Well, with all the riots and protests, I expect we'll see just how contagious this thing really is in the next couple weeks.

[Peter Brown]

Well, with all the riots and protests, I expect we'll see just how contagious this thing really is in the next couple weeks.

Best take from JW:

“ This much is certain after all this rioting: in two weeks we’re either going to have a sh-tload of sick Democrats, or we’re going to realize COVID-19 was not what Democrats said it was.”

[Bart]

Well, with all the riots and protests, I expect we'll see just how contagious this thing really is in the next couple weeks.

Best take from JW:

“ This much is certain after all this rioting: in two weeks we’re either going to have a sh-tload of sick Democrats, or we’re going to realize COVID-19 was not what Democrats said it was.”

I think there is nothing certain at all about this thing because:
1. Those at the protest will not interact with only individuals of like minded political affiliation. I do not see too many Republican or Democratic only grocery stores.
2. The nature of interactions have change from predominantly inside in closed spaces with varying degrees of air circulation to out door interactions.

[MDlaxfan76]

Well, with all the riots and protests, I expect we'll see just how contagious this thing really is in the next couple weeks.

Best take from JW:

“ This much is certain after all this rioting: in two weeks we’re either going to have a sh-tload of sick Democrats, or we’re going to realize COVID-19 was not what Democrats said it was.”

I think there is nothing certain at all about this thing because:
1. Those at the protest will not interact with only individuals of like minded political affiliation. I do not see too many Republican or Democratic only grocery stores.
2. The nature of interactions have change from predominantly inside in closed spaces with varying degrees of air circulation to out door interactions.

and most of those out protesting during the day and/or rioting at night are young, those least likely to present with symptoms themselves. Their families, their co-workers, their casual acquaintances, those at the local bar, etc are a different matter and, nope, no telling the party affiliation of the older folks they will be in contact with...good news on the grocery side, the rules are pretty darn strict and are going to stay strict for a good while, so it's actually a very low transmission area. Grocery workers themselves are doing quite well, given the precautions.

I think in general we're going to see lower transmission rates than we did in the winter, this is mostly happening airborne in confined areas. But it's indeed worrisome.

[youthathletics]

Curious...has anyone received a Visa Debit Card from..Money Network Cardholder Services. Appears to be the the Economic Impact Card as a result of COVID 19? Seems legit from this website: https://www.consumerfinance.gov/about-u ... paid-card/

[a fan]

Well, with all the riots and protests, I expect we'll see just how contagious this thing really is in the next couple weeks.

Best take from JW:

“ This much is certain after all this rioting: in two weeks we’re either going to have a sh-tload of sick Democrats, or we’re going to realize COVID-19 was not what Democrats said it was.”

Just stop. Your Republican President and your Republican leaders shut down the economy, too. Right now, States are operating with White House guidance from Fauci. And that's a Republican Administration, in case you've forgotten. Don't like the shutdown? Complain to Trump.

Right now? My State is more open than your State of Florida. So give it a Fing rest with this stuff that not even you believe.

Stop trolling.

[jhu72]

Well, with all the riots and protests, I expect we'll see just how contagious this thing really is in the next couple weeks.

They are all taking Orange Duce's medical advice - taking Chloroquine or lower doses of Chloroquine phosphate, its all they can afford.

[cradleandshoot]

Interesting analysis at the Worldometer site:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/

And their numbers are higher than I would have expected - around 1.4-2% for the death rate (10x swine flu). For under age 65 - a death rate of about .1%

for whatever reasons, it seems nyc has case fatality much worse than many other places in the country and the world.
a lot of them can be seen as maybe .02 to .04 net.
probably at least in part as a result of the surge there as well as nursing home mishaps.

Just thinking outside the box...wonder if NYC was so high with the elderly b/c they are also more sedentary, in the confines of the city. Elevators everywhere, grocery story within a couple blocks, cabs and subway with in a couple blocks?

Actually NYC can have more walking than a lot of suburbs - typical suburban trip to the grocery is to pile in the car and drive a couple/few (or more) miles so the only walking is in the parking lot. NYC is quite walkable in many places, and there are small parks everywhere (plus some monster parks like Central Park and the NY Arboretum in the Bronx).

People in nyc walk more than most other places.

Walking in NYC makes a hell of a lot more sense than trying to drive.

[RedFromMI]

Interesting analysis at the Worldometer site:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/

And their numbers are higher than I would have expected - around 1.4-2% for the death rate (10x swine flu). For under age 65 - a death rate of about .1%

for whatever reasons, it seems nyc has case fatality much worse than many other places in the country and the world.
a lot of them can be seen as maybe .02 to .04 net.
probably at least in part as a result of the surge there as well as nursing home mishaps.

Just thinking outside the box...wonder if NYC was so high with the elderly b/c they are also more sedentary, in the confines of the city. Elevators everywhere, grocery story within a couple blocks, cabs and subway with in a couple blocks?

Actually NYC can have more walking than a lot of suburbs - typical suburban trip to the grocery is to pile in the car and drive a couple/few (or more) miles so the only walking is in the parking lot. NYC is quite walkable in many places, and there are small parks everywhere (plus some monster parks like Central Park and the NY Arboretum in the Bronx).

People in nyc walk more than most other places.

Walking in NYC makes a hell of a lot more sense than trying to drive.

And many times in midtown Manhattan it was (not right now) much faster - especially if you want to go across town on the numbered streets in the late afternoon.

[youthathletics]

Question to anyone that cares to answer...

Exactly how has the WHO helped with this pandemic?

At this point it's most likely impossible, but please try to answer objectively without letting your political inclination interfere.

They certainly seem like a 3rd party that just gets in the way. Where influence may have set aside real work. Remember our CDC directly requesting help, multiple times to China, only to have fallen on deaf ears. WHO appears to have slipped on their on peel. This moves appears like a forceful move to hit them where it hurts and demand they clean up ‘possible’ internal shortcomings.

I agree it may be more a shot across bow than anything youth. And perhaps the loss of funding may force a change to WHO leadership that may have become too intimate with the Chicoms.

Interesting this leak comes out less than a week AFTER Trump pulls funding to WHO. WHO now shining the spot light where Trump had it all along? Money talks...especially when you (the WHO) aren't going to get as much. Less us forget....China is the bad guy in all this....it's not partisan, unless you are a commie.

https://news.yahoo.com/leaked-documents ... soc_trk=fb

[Bart]

Interested in math? Here is an interesting webinar put on by the National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis. The speaker is Nina Fefferman and she gives a good oversight in the modeling used in mathematical epidemiology. It was posted at the end of March. She does a good job building a simple SIR model (suseptable, infected, recovered). It is long, 1:22:00 but easy to understand. There are some shorter videos on the SIR model but she addresses some topics not covered in those and if you can make it to the end the answers to questions posed to her are worth it.

[tech37]

Question to anyone that cares to answer...

Exactly how has the WHO helped with this pandemic?

At this point it's most likely impossible, but please try to answer objectively without letting your political inclination interfere.

They certainly seem like a 3rd party that just gets in the way. Where influence may have set aside real work. Remember our CDC directly requesting help, multiple times to China, only to have fallen on deaf ears. WHO appears to have slipped on their on peel. This moves appears like a forceful move to hit them where it hurts and demand they clean up ‘possible’ internal shortcomings.

I agree it may be more a shot across bow than anything youth. And perhaps the loss of funding may force a change to WHO leadership that may have become too intimate with the Chicoms.

Interesting this leak comes out less than a week AFTER Trump pulls funding to WHO. WHO now shining the spot light where Trump had it all along? Money talks...especially when you (the WHO) aren't going to get as much. Less us forget....China is the bad guy in all this....it's not partisan, unless you are a commie.

https://news.yahoo.com/leaked-documents ... soc_trk=fb

Right youth... I heard a report on radio today that, behind the scenes, the WHO was really upset with China's behavior re pandemic. What a crock of unmitigated BS! Yes my friend, money talks...

[Nigel]

Supporting info from WION. Palki Sharma is on it. She's a breathe of fresh air and has quality reports.

[kramerica.inc]

So in about a week, with the riots entering week2 tonight, we will know- can we open everything as long as it’s outside?

My guess is yes.

Time to enjoy the Back yard, outdoor restaurants, the community pool, public beach and boardwalk!

[a fan]

So in about a week, with the riots entering week2 tonight, we will know- can we open everything as long as it’s outside?

My guess is yes.

I certainly hope so, because just about every State in the Union has opened up the outdoors!

[Bart]

So in about a week, with the riots entering week2 tonight, we will know- can we open everything as long as it’s outside?

My guess is yes.

Time to enjoy the Back yard, outdoor restaurants, the community pool, public beach and boardwalk!

\
I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you here but what evidence has you guessing this way? From my armchair QB position is appears that there may be a seasonality to it all but I have not seen anything really definitive to back that up. A quick google search indicates that the virus may settle into a seasonal flux eventually but perhaps not so soon?

Curios is you have found resources that indicate other wise. Thanks.

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... tudy-finds

[holmes435]

Large global study affirms face masks reduce COVID-19 infection risk by 85 percent

Actual study here: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 9/fulltext

Other takeaways: "The risk of transmitting the new coronavirus without a mask or respirator is 17.4 percent, but with a mask that falls to 3.1 percent, the study found, though the researchers noted there's a higher amount of uncertainty on mask wearing than physical distancing. Keeping a distance of less than 1 meter (3.3 feet) and no other protective measure carried a transmission risk of 12.8 percent, cut to 2.6 percent when the distance was more than 1 meter and even lower at 2 meters (6.6. feet). There was also a sharp cut in risk with eye protection"

So face masks, eye protection and social distancing are pretty darn effective.

[youthathletics]

So in about a week, with the riots entering week2 tonight, we will know- can we open everything as long as it’s outside?

My guess is yes.

Time to enjoy the Back yard, outdoor restaurants, the community pool, public beach and boardwalk!

\
I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you here but what evidence has you guessing this way? From my armchair QB position is appears that there may be a seasonality to it all but I have not seen anything really definitive to back that up. A quick google search indicates that the virus may settle into a seasonal flux eventually but perhaps not so soon?

Curios is you have found resources that indicate other wise. Thanks.

Dr. Fauci said it was gonna come back in a second wave, the if we weren't good little boys and girls it might come back in a second wave, oh wait, he then walked that back a again and is now optimistic that it wont be that bad. He's all over the place....maybe he caught whatever Joe Biden has.