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old salt wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 12:05 am Prigozhin is Putin's ally. He's challenging Russia's military leadership, not Putin.

Prigrozhin is threatening to march on Moscow. He’s also demanding that the defense minister and head of the military be handed over to him. Last time I checked, Putin was supposed to be in charge of the military.

Prigrozhin is directly challenging Putin’s authority. Putin will survive this, but this is immensely damaging to him.

DocBarrister

DocBarrister wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 2:04 am

old salt wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 12:05 am Prigozhin is Putin's ally. He's challenging Russia's military leadership, not Putin.

Prigrozhin is threatening to march on Moscow. He’s also demanding that the defense minister and head of the military be handed over to him. Last time I checked, Putin was supposed to be in charge of the military.

Prigrozhin is directly challenging Putin’s authority. Putin will survive this, but this is immensely damaging to him.

DocBarrister

You first said there's a coup underway, then you said it's not a coup. Thanks for clearing that up.

How far is the march from Rostov on Don to Moscow ? What's the strength of Prigozhin's air force ?
Who's Victoria Nuland endorsing ?

old salt wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 2:40 am

DocBarrister wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 2:04 am

old salt wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 12:05 am Prigozhin is Putin's ally. He's challenging Russia's military leadership, not Putin.

Prigrozhin is threatening to march on Moscow. He’s also demanding that the defense minister and head of the military be handed over to him. Last time I checked, Putin was supposed to be in charge of the military.

Prigrozhin is directly challenging Putin’s authority. Putin will survive this, but this is immensely damaging to him.

DocBarrister

You first said there's a coup underway, then you said it's not a coup. Thanks for clearing that up.

How far is the march from Rostov on Don to Moscow ? What's the strength of Prigozhin's air force ?
Who's Victoria Nuland endorsing ?

It was Russian military officials who called this an attempted coup.

Russian generals late on Friday accused Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the outspoken mercenary tycoon, of trying to mount a coup against President Vladimir V. Putin, as the Russian authorities opened an investigation into Mr. Prigozhin for “organizing an armed rebellion.”

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/23 ... raine-news

You’re completely missing the big picture (as always) if you think Prigozhin is acting as an ally of Putin.

This episode, which as I stated earlier will not end well for Prigozhin, is extremely damaging to Putin. The important thing is not that Prigozhin will actually march on Moscow, it’s that he threatened to march on Moscow. That is a direct challenge to Putin’s authority, who no longer looks like he has complete control over all the military forces of Russia. As I stated in an earlier post, Putin will survive this but he will emerge from this crisis very damaged in his reputation and authority … just about the worst thing that could happen to a fascist thug like Putin.

DocBarrister

So it's not a coup ? OK, I'm relieved.

This might be the black swan event.

black swan or swan lake?

https://www.npr.org/2021/08/19/10294377 ... nt-turmoil

old salt wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 12:05 am Prigozhin is Putin's ally. He's challenging Russia's military leadership, not Putin.

Well today, Putin disagrees, at least publicly.

https://www.npr.org/2023/06/24/11841475 ... -rebellion

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... a4116058d1

I think we should hold our fire on confidently predicting how this actually will play out. Too many twists possible ahead.

We're merely speculating about what/ifs.

There are numerous anti-Putin factions in Russia, both right and left, so things may well devolve beyond just the confrontations between military groups

I think the concern you raised, legitimately, about what would replace Putin should he fall is definitely in play now.

Should Prighozin actually succeed in an overthrow, a regime led by him might well be much worse than even Putin has been. Which in no way is rooting for Putin.

From the West's POV, the best case scenario would be for the right wing to eat itself, and for liberal forces to eventually arise...they do exist, as well as would return if possible...but that could be just wishful thinking.

Is this the beginning of the implosion in Russian military morale that some of us were predicting?
I dunno, sure hope so, but it may well not be so simple.

old salt wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 12:05 am Prigozhin is Putin's ally. He's challenging Russia's military leadership, not Putin.

Putin says you’re wrong (as usual).

The Russian president has accused Yevgeny Prigozhin of “treason” after the warlord launched an uprising against Russia’s army, taking over at least one major Russian city.
In an emergency televised address on Saturday morning, Vladimir Putin said “the fate of our people is being decided”, accusing the Wagner group headed by Prigozhin of “armed mutiny” and vowing to “neutralise” the uprising.

“It’s an attempt to subvert us from inside. This is treason in the face of those who are fighting on the front,” a visibly angry Putin told the Russian public.

“This is a stab in the back of our troops and the people of Russia.”

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... e-uprising

DocBarrister

DocBarrister wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 7:35 am

old salt wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 12:05 am Prigozhin is Putin's ally. He's challenging Russia's military leadership, not Putin.

Putin says you’re wrong (as usual).

The Russian president has accused Yevgeny Prigozhin of “treason” after the warlord launched an uprising against Russia’s army, taking over at least one major Russian city.
In an emergency televised address on Saturday morning, Vladimir Putin said “the fate of our people is being decided”, accusing the Wagner group headed by Prigozhin of “armed mutiny” and vowing to “neutralise” the uprising.

“It’s an attempt to subvert us from inside. This is treason in the face of those who are fighting on the front,” a visibly angry Putin told the Russian public.

“This is a stab in the back of our troops and the people of Russia.”

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... e-uprising

DocBarrister

Old Soldier should speak for himself

Putin's private aircraft just left Moscow for St Petersburg.

Lukashenko (President of Belarus) aircraft departed Minsk for Turkey overnight - The Belarusian Kalinouski regiment are saying they are preparing to "liberate" the country

Rut Roh

Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 8:09 am

DocBarrister wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 7:35 am

old salt wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 12:05 am Prigozhin is Putin's ally. He's challenging Russia's military leadership, not Putin.

Putin says you’re wrong (as usual).

The Russian president has accused Yevgeny Prigozhin of “treason” after the warlord launched an uprising against Russia’s army, taking over at least one major Russian city.
In an emergency televised address on Saturday morning, Vladimir Putin said “the fate of our people is being decided”, accusing the Wagner group headed by Prigozhin of “armed mutiny” and vowing to “neutralise” the uprising.

“It’s an attempt to subvert us from inside. This is treason in the face of those who are fighting on the front,” a visibly angry Putin told the Russian public.

“This is a stab in the back of our troops and the people of Russia.”

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... e-uprising

DocBarrister

Old Soldier should speak for himself

Alexander Vindmann agrees with me. Anyone who's been following this knows that Prigozhin has been Putin's most steadfast supporter.

Vindmann also called this a Black Swan event.

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:46 am
I think the concern you raised, legitimately, about what would replace Putin should he fall is definitely in play now.

Should Prighozin actually succeed in an overthrow, a regime led by him might well be much worse than even Putin has been. Which in no way is rooting for Putin.

Is this the beginning of the implosion in Russian military morale that some of us were predicting?
I dunno, sure hope so, but it may well not be so simple.

I'm glad you said that & not me. I prefer Putin in power to Prighozin any day.

Should Ukraine seize this opportunity to sever the land bridge or conserve their forces, leaving a path for retreat of Russian forces from Kherson ?
Tough choice. Make it ez for Russian forces to surrender with assurances of humane treatment & prompt return home.
This might be the hoped for collapse of the Russian military in Ukraine.
Can the Russian air force stop Wagner's run to Moscow ?

Good thread to follow on the current goings on: https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/ ... 81473?s=20

old salt wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 9:38 am

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:46 am
I think the concern you raised, legitimately, about what would replace Putin should he fall is definitely in play now.

Should Prighozin actually succeed in an overthrow, a regime led by him might well be much worse than even Putin has been. Which in no way is rooting for Putin.

Is this the beginning of the implosion in Russian military morale that some of us were predicting?
I dunno, sure hope so, but it may well not be so simple.

I'm glad you said that & not me. I prefer Putin in power to Prighozin any day.

Should Ukraine seize this opportunity to sever the land bridge or conserve their forces, leaving a path for retreat of Russian forces from Kherson ?
Tough choice. Make it ez for Russian forces to surrender with assurances of humane treatment & prompt return home.
This might be the hoped for collapse of the Russian military in Ukraine.
Can the Russian air force stop Wagner's run to Moscow ?

Yes, choice between two awful choices.
Neither of these guys have any morality to rely upon.

But there are other possible outcomes that could be entirely better. Doesn't have to be Navalny, but obviously that would create an opportunity for Russia to actually regain legitimacy in the world, encouraging some of the huge brain drain to return.

On the military options, I would not provide any respite to forces who don't lay down their arms and run at this point. Need to thoroughly break their resolve and capabilities. They don't need any "land bridge" to do so. There may be a point at which to have a ceasefire to allow retreat, but that's not yet close, I'd think. I may be overestimating Russian regulars, but I think the full morale break won't happen without more pressure.

One would think that the Russian Air Force could stop the Wagner column headed to Moscow, but I just saw a report that Wagner is halfway there already, facing some strafing from helicopters and perhaps fixed wing, but they have integrated anti-aircraft in the column knocking them back...seems like Prighozin had this planned...

youthathletics wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 9:49 am Good thread to follow on the current goings on: https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/ ... 81473?s=20

I dunno, the other people's comments are off the wall.

But the moving news comments from the primary are interesting.

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 9:56 am

youthathletics wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 9:49 am Good thread to follow on the current goings on: https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/ ... 81473?s=20

I dunno, the other people's comments are off the wall.

But the moving news comments from the primary are interesting.

Just focus on the primary....I know it can be hard, but you can do it. It beats sitting in front of the boob tube listening to drivel and commercials.

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 9:49 am

old salt wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 9:38 am Should Ukraine seize this opportunity to sever the land bridge or conserve their forces, leaving a path for retreat of Russian forces from Kherson ?
Tough choice. Make it ez for Russian forces to surrender with assurances of humane treatment & prompt return home.
This might be the hoped for collapse of the Russian military in Ukraine.
Can the Russian air force stop Wagner's run to Moscow ?

On the military options, I would not provide any respite to forces who don't lay down their arms and run at this point. Need to thoroughly break their resolve and capabilities. They don't need any "land bridge" to do so. There may be a point at which to have a ceasefire to allow retreat, but that's not yet close, I'd think. I may be overestimating Russian regulars, but I think the full morale break won't happen without more pressure.

So long as Wagner holds Rostov-on-Don, Russian forces west of the Donbas are cut off.
The Russian HQ for the war is now held by Wagner. If the Ukrainians wait & watch, they may win this war without having to suffer any further losses of personnel & equipment, conserving them for their future defense forces.
Prighozin is blaming the military for taking Russia into war under false pretenses, he's not blaming Putin.

I just watched Without Remorse last night.......solid Tom Clancy book, turned movie. It's interesting how there are parallels to make one believe two parties are actually against one another, when in fact they are both being played against one another by a third group.....in the film it is the CIA. The timing in impeccable, with our own internal current events.

youthathletics wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 10:07 am

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 9:56 am

youthathletics wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 9:49 am Good thread to follow on the current goings on: https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/ ... 81473?s=20

I dunno, the other people's comments are off the wall.

But the moving news comments from the primary are interesting.

Just focus on the primary....I know it can be hard, but you can do it. It beats sitting in front of the boob tube listening to drivel and commercials.

Putin's speech is eloquent...& frightening. It might be one for the archives. This is a dangerous situation.

old salt wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 9:26 am

Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 8:09 am

DocBarrister wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 7:35 am

old salt wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 12:05 am Prigozhin is Putin's ally. He's challenging Russia's military leadership, not Putin.

Putin says you’re wrong (as usual).

The Russian president has accused Yevgeny Prigozhin of “treason” after the warlord launched an uprising against Russia’s army, taking over at least one major Russian city.
In an emergency televised address on Saturday morning, Vladimir Putin said “the fate of our people is being decided”, accusing the Wagner group headed by Prigozhin of “armed mutiny” and vowing to “neutralise” the uprising.

“It’s an attempt to subvert us from inside. This is treason in the face of those who are fighting on the front,” a visibly angry Putin told the Russian public.

“This is a stab in the back of our troops and the people of Russia.”

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... e-uprising

DocBarrister

Old Soldier should speak for himself

Alexander Vindmann agrees with me. Anyone who's been following this knows that Prigozhin has been Putin's most steadfast supporter.

Vindmann also called this a Black Swan event.

Had been.

youthathletics wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 10:14 am I just watched Without Remorse last night.......solid Tom Clancy book, turned movie. It's interesting how there are parallels to make one believe two parties are actually against one another, when in fact they are both being played against one another by a third group.....in the film it is the CIA. The timing in impeccable, with our own internal current events.

That was my 3rd favorite Clancy book, after Red Storm Rising & Red October.
I really liked all the Ches Bay settings. As for the movie, I thought William DaFoe made a better John Clark.