All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[RedFromMI]

More:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... rus-study/

"A study of 96,000 hospitalized coronavirus patients on six continents found that those who received an antimalarial drug promoted by President Trump as a “game changer” in the fight against the virus had a significantly higher risk of death compared with those who did not.

People treated with hydroxychloroquine, or the closely related drug chloroquine, were also more likely to develop a type of irregular heart rhythm, or arrhythmia, that can lead to sudden cardiac death, it concluded.

The study, published Friday in the medical journal the Lancet, is the largest analysis to date of the risks and benefits of treating covid-19 patients with antimalarial drugs. It is based on a retrospective analysis of medical records, not a controlled study in which patients are divided randomly into treatment groups — a method considered the gold standard of medicine. But the sheer size of the study was convincing to some scientists.

“It’s one thing not to have benefit, but this shows distinct harm,” said Eric Topol, a cardiologist and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute. “If there was ever was hope for this drug, this is the death of it.”

David Maron, director of preventive cardiology at the Stanford University School of Medicine, said that “these findings provide absolutely no reason for optimism that these drugs might be useful in the prevention or treatment of covid-19.”

Past studies also found scant or no evidence of hydroxychloroquine’s benefit in treating sick patients, while reports mounted of dangerous heart problems associated with its use. As a result, the Food and Drug Administration last month warned against the use of the drug outside hospital settings or clinical trials."

34% increased risk of mortality when HCQ given alone (37% chloroquine), and 45% when in combination with azithromycin. Risk of serious heart arrhythmias more than doubled with HCQ, and increased over 400% with the combo. Yes this stuff can kill you (Cavuto was right).

[Bart]

Nah, nobody knew what to do.... we had a two month head start. Doing nothing wasn’t a good choice.... we have been studying this for years.

Decades. We have known about this potential for Decades. I remember talking about it in Grad school regarding the transition of SIV to HIV. Does that mean I get to blame Bush I and Bill Clinton for not reacting during their tenure?

[RedFromMI]

Nah, nobody knew what to do.... we had a two month head start. Doing nothing wasn’t a good choice.... we have been studying this for years.

Decades. We have known about this potential for Decades. I remember talking about it in Grad school regarding the transition of SIV to HIV. Does that mean I get to blame Bush I and Bill Clinton for not reacting during their tenure?

You can certainly blame the actors of the past for what they lacked. But you have a guy at the top of the government who insists that he knows more than anyone else - and it is crystal clear that he does not. And he kept overriding prompt action for fear he would lose the only possible reason to re-elect him.

So that is why the immediacy of dealing with OD.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Nah, nobody knew what to do.... we had a two month head start. Doing nothing wasn’t a good choice.... we have been studying this for years.

Decades. We have known about this potential for Decades. I remember talking about it in Grad school regarding the transition of SIV to HIV. Does that mean I get to blame Bush I and Bill Clinton for not reacting during their tenure?

Yes. You can blame them for a failed response and for downplaying the seriousness of it. Trump didn’t cause the virus not could we have avoided it. Better planning and response could have shaved a few trillions off our economic loss. We let it get too far away from us and had to shut everything down. Again we had a 2 month head start. We could have done better. A public health crisis is an economic crisis.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Posted : Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:39 pm

This might really develop into a big deal.
Can China contain this & cope with it ?
Potential strategic implications ?
Uncontained, could decimate China & contiguous nations.
VDH has some thoughts :

Now the curtain has been pulled back on the interior rot of the Chinese Communist Party, its gulag-like reeducation camps, its systematic mercantile cheating, its Orwellian surveillance apparatus, its serial public-health crises, and its primitive hinterland infrastructure.

Interesting stroll down memory lane. Nobody anticipated the virility of air travel contagion vectors.
Immediate ban on international flight arrivals would have been the only conceivable way to slow the spread.

https://www.transportation.gov/testimon ... air-travel

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3604007/

Without the benefit of hindsight (not knowing then, what we know now), if, when & from where, would you have closed US airports to international arriving passengers ?

That would have been a bitter pill. Maybe if we reacted just 2 weeks earlier and had people evacuate and then manage the inflow better it would have helped. The administration didn’t seem to act with any sense of urgency until late in the game. There are proven ways to fight a virus but it’s a hard march.

[Bart]

Nah, nobody knew what to do.... we had a two month head start. Doing nothing wasn’t a good choice.... we have been studying this for years.

Decades. We have known about this potential for Decades. I remember talking about it in Grad school regarding the transition of SIV to HIV. Does that mean I get to blame Bush I and Bill Clinton for not reacting during their tenure?

You can certainly blame the actors of the past for what they lacked. But you have a guy at the top of the government who insists that he knows more than anyone else - and it is crystal clear that he does not. And he kept overriding prompt action for fear he would lose the only possible reason to re-elect him.

So that is why the immediacy of dealing with OD.

I have no quibble about this.(bold) If I have quibble it is that everyone sees things perfectly now in 20/20 hindsight.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Nah, nobody knew what to do.... we had a two month head start. Doing nothing wasn’t a good choice.... we have been studying this for years.

Decades. We have known about this potential for Decades. I remember talking about it in Grad school regarding the transition of SIV to HIV. Does that mean I get to blame Bush I and Bill Clinton for not reacting during their tenure?

You can certainly blame the actors of the past for what they lacked. But you have a guy at the top of the government who insists that he knows more than anyone else - and it is crystal clear that he does not. And he kept overriding prompt action for fear he would lose the only possible reason to re-elect him.

So that is why the immediacy of dealing with OD.

I have no quibble about this.(bold) If I have quibble it is that everyone sees things perfectly now in 20/20 hindsight.

Some things were criticized in the first week of February. We could have done better. Do you believe the administration should have acted sooner or later? I am not asking you what the government should have done.... It’s not your job. Just asking if you believe inaction is better than action in this case?

[RedFromMI]

At least the OD has finally been seen wearing a mask!

[Typical Lax Dad]

At least the OD has finally been seen wearing a mask!

Thank goodness.

[MDlaxfan76]

Nah, nobody knew what to do.... we had a two month head start. Doing nothing wasn’t a good choice.... we have been studying this for years.

Decades. We have known about this potential for Decades. I remember talking about it in Grad school regarding the transition of SIV to HIV. Does that mean I get to blame Bush I and Bill Clinton for not reacting during their tenure?

You can certainly blame the actors of the past for what they lacked. But you have a guy at the top of the government who insists that he knows more than anyone else - and it is crystal clear that he does not. And he kept overriding prompt action for fear he would lose the only possible reason to re-elect him.

So that is why the immediacy of dealing with OD.

I have no quibble about this.(bold) If I have quibble it is that everyone sees things perfectly now in 20/20 hindsight.

It is indeed the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, by definition.

I think this is really more of a question as to what did those in a position of influence and power and responsibility know... and when did they know it... and what did they do in response.

We can go as far back as anyone would like, but certainly we have people in positions of power and responsibility today whose performance to date matters but also in real time and in the future. Have they learned from whatever errors were made? Or will they continue to make errors for much the same reasons they made the prior ones?

Certainly thousands, potentially hundreds of thousands of lives, as well as livelihoods, are incrementally at stake.

[Bart]

Nah, nobody knew what to do.... we had a two month head start. Doing nothing wasn’t a good choice.... we have been studying this for years.

Decades. We have known about this potential for Decades. I remember talking about it in Grad school regarding the transition of SIV to HIV. Does that mean I get to blame Bush I and Bill Clinton for not reacting during their tenure?

You can certainly blame the actors of the past for what they lacked. But you have a guy at the top of the government who insists that he knows more than anyone else - and it is crystal clear that he does not. And he kept overriding prompt action for fear he would lose the only possible reason to re-elect him.

So that is why the immediacy of dealing with OD.

I have no quibble about this.(bold) If I have quibble it is that everyone sees things perfectly now in 20/20 hindsight.

Some things were criticized in the first week of February. We could have done better. Do you believe the administration should have acted sooner or later? I am not asking you what the government should have done.... It’s not your job. Just asking if you believe inaction is better than action in this case?

Do I? I think so. The data suggests yes. Would I have acted differently? I can not answer that question honestly. The popular opinion here would be (my guess only) that if I were in charge I would have acted in such and such a manner and saved thousands of lives. All well and good and certainly plausible looking back or even looking back at what was said in this vert topic. But no one here is under the same pressures, same circumstances as the POTUS or any Governor of any state. Everyone would have a grand plan until actually in the situation.

I believe it is properly summed up by one of the great American Philosophers of our time: "Everyone has a plan until they get hit".

[CU88]

When Will the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic Be Over?

https://www.menshealth.com/health/a3261 ... virus-end/

"And looking at pandemics past, there isn’t much of a pattern—either in seasonal trends or a timeline. The 1918 influenza (aka the Spanish flu) saw three major outbreaks—the spring of 1918, fall of 1918, and spring of 1919—with rates of infection dropping during both summers. But the H1N1 flu, which the WHO declared a pandemic in June of 2009, peaked during the summer months."

and

"As for then delivering the formula, he explains if the US can ramp up their preparations to mass produce and deliver while the vaccine is being developed, the formula could actually be rolled out to Americans along that same timeline of Fall 2021.

Even with a vaccine, herd immunity is still important. The formula likely won’t protect 100 percent of people, and 100 percent of people certainly won’t get the vaccine. Typically, you need 60 to 80 percent of people to have been exposed and have fought off the virus (or gotten vaccinated) for herd immunity to be effective."

[Brooklyn]

Many on the far right used to condemn Obama when he went golfing but, as usual, are suddenly silent about tRUMP's golfing ventures.

[RedFromMI]

When Will the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic Be Over?

https://www.menshealth.com/health/a3261 ... virus-end/

"And looking at pandemics past, there isn’t much of a pattern—either in seasonal trends or a timeline. The 1918 influenza (aka the Spanish flu) saw three major outbreaks—the spring of 1918, fall of 1918, and spring of 1919—with rates of infection dropping during both summers. But the H1N1 flu, which the WHO declared a pandemic in June of 2009, peaked during the summer months."

and

"As for then delivering the formula, he explains if the US can ramp up their preparations to mass produce and deliver while the vaccine is being developed, the formula could actually be rolled out to Americans along that same timeline of Fall 2021.

Even with a vaccine, herd immunity is still important. The formula likely won’t protect 100 percent of people, and 100 percent of people certainly won’t get the vaccine. Typically, you need 60 to 80 percent of people to have been exposed and have fought off the virus (or gotten vaccinated) for herd immunity to be effective."

Think about this: in NYC where between 20 and 25% of the population have apparently been infected, you would need two more waves as large as what the city has just experienced in order to approach the minimum 60%. Vaccine is critical to getting to herd immunity without even more catastrophic loss of life - or we need to get some much more effective treatments in the meantime.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Nah, nobody knew what to do.... we had a two month head start. Doing nothing wasn’t a good choice.... we have been studying this for years.

Decades. We have known about this potential for Decades. I remember talking about it in Grad school regarding the transition of SIV to HIV. Does that mean I get to blame Bush I and Bill Clinton for not reacting during their tenure?

You can certainly blame the actors of the past for what they lacked. But you have a guy at the top of the government who insists that he knows more than anyone else - and it is crystal clear that he does not. And he kept overriding prompt action for fear he would lose the only possible reason to re-elect him.

So that is why the immediacy of dealing with OD.

I have no quibble about this.(bold) If I have quibble it is that everyone sees things perfectly now in 20/20 hindsight.

Some things were criticized in the first week of February. We could have done better. Do you believe the administration should have acted sooner or later? I am not asking you what the government should have done.... It’s not your job. Just asking if you believe inaction is better than action in this case?

Do I? I think so. The data suggests yes. Would I have acted differently? I can not answer that question honestly. The popular opinion here would be (my guess only) that if I were in charge I would have acted in such and such a manner and saved thousands of lives. All well and good and certainly plausible looking back or even looking back at what was said in this vert topic. But no one here is under the same pressures, same circumstances as the POTUS or any Governor of any state. Everyone would have a grand plan until actually in the situation.

I believe it is properly summed up by one of the great American Philosophers of our time: "Everyone has a plan until they get hit".

Maybe being forced to change a plan is better than no plan. Lacrosse coaches receive criticism and the games are virtually meaningless. Mike Tyson was “ludicrous”... . BTW, I stated that a death rate under 1% would be a good outcome for us... deaths are one thing, the economic damage is another. We could have lessened the economic impact with a more cogent response. Penny wise and pound foolish but not getting after it early.

[CU88]

New Study Out of Columbia University Shows 36,000 Lives Could Have Been Spared If the U.S. Started Social Distancing One Week Sooner


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20103655v1

Abstract
Assessing the effects of early non-pharmaceutical interventions1-5 on COVID-19 spread in the United States is crucial for understanding and planning future control measures to combat the ongoing pandemic6-10. Here we use county-level observations of reported infections and deaths11, in conjunction with human mobility data12 and a metapopulation transmission model13,14, to quantify changes of disease transmission rates in US counties from March 15, 2020 to May 3, 2020. We find significant reductions of the basic reproductive numbers in major metropolitan areas in association with social distancing and other control measures. Counterfactual simulations indicate that, had these same control measures been implemented just 1-2 weeks earlier, a substantial number of cases and deaths could have been averted. Specifically, nationwide, 61.6% [95% CI: 54.6%-67.7%] of reported infections and 55.0% [95% CI: 46.1%-62.2%] of reported deaths as of May 3, 2020 could have been avoided if the same control measures had been implemented just one week earlier. We also examine the effects of delays in re-implementing social distancing following a relaxation of control measures. A longer response time results in a stronger rebound of infections and death. Our findings underscore the importance of early intervention and aggressive response in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic.

[6ftstick]

New Study Out of Columbia University Shows 36,000 Lives Could Have Been Spared If the U.S. Started Social Distancing One Week Sooner


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20103655v1

Abstract
Assessing the effects of early non-pharmaceutical interventions1-5 on COVID-19 spread in the United States is crucial for understanding and planning future control measures to combat the ongoing pandemic6-10. Here we use county-level observations of reported infections and deaths11, in conjunction with human mobility data12 and a metapopulation transmission model13,14, to quantify changes of disease transmission rates in US counties from March 15, 2020 to May 3, 2020. We find significant reductions of the basic reproductive numbers in major metropolitan areas in association with social distancing and other control measures. Counterfactual simulations indicate that, had these same control measures been implemented just 1-2 weeks earlier, a substantial number of cases and deaths could have been averted. Specifically, nationwide, 61.6% [95% CI: 54.6%-67.7%] of reported infections and 55.0% [95% CI: 46.1%-62.2%] of reported deaths as of May 3, 2020 could have been avoided if the same control measures had been implemented just one week earlier. We also examine the effects of delays in re-implementing social distancing following a relaxation of control measures. A longer response time results in a stronger rebound of infections and death. Our findings underscore the importance of early intervention and aggressive response in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic.

Well another model that should make all you Trump haters happy. And from such a neutral arbiter as Columbia.

[6ftstick]

Must all be QUACKS

https://www.independentsentinel.com/600 ... lockdowns/

More than 600 doctors from around the country signed onto a letter Tuesday urging President Donald Trump to end lockdowns in America. They described the widespread lockdown orders as a “mass casualty incident” and warning of “exponentially growing health consequences.”

[RedFromMI]

Must all be QUACKS

https://www.independentsentinel.com/600 ... lockdowns/

More than 600 doctors from around the country signed onto a letter Tuesday urging President Donald Trump to end lockdowns in America. They described the widespread lockdown orders as a “mass casualty incident” and warning of “exponentially growing health consequences.”

They clearly do not understand exponential. You do know that the Trump people have been rounding up any doctors that are their supporters just to do this...

[6ftstick]

Must all be QUACKS

https://www.independentsentinel.com/600 ... lockdowns/

More than 600 doctors from around the country signed onto a letter Tuesday urging President Donald Trump to end lockdowns in America. They described the widespread lockdown orders as a “mass casualty incident” and warning of “exponentially growing health consequences.”

They clearly do not understand exponential. You do know that the Trump people have been rounding up any doctors that are their supporters just to do this...

And no ones rounding up Trump opponents on Hydroxy or on opening the economy.