Illia Ponomarenko
@IAPonomarenko
So, based on everything we have seen by the end of this day, I guess here's my humble theory regarding the Kakhovka Dam destruction:
- Russia, as an occupying power, in violation of international law and despite multiple Ukrainian pleas, completely failed to ensure the security and proper maintenance of this key facility of very special importance.
- Russia, despite Ukrainian and international efforts, absolutely failed to impose a demilitarized zone surrounding this key facility, and, similarly to facilities like the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant, it absolutely failed to abstain from deploying military forces in the facility's vicinity.
- And, in the first place, by default, as an aggressor waging a destructive war of conquest and openly defying the law of war, it is directly and solely responsible for the whole of the ongoing massive loss of life and the destruction taking place in Ukraine.
So it's more than obvious that regardless of the destruction's very immediate cause (be it Russian bombs planted or deadly Russian negligence), all 100% of the blame is on nothing but Russia.
I guess no one is taking seriously a dumb conspiracy theory saying that the dam could be destroyed by Ukraine -- for the sake of... causing a major technological disaster, with over 80 cities and towns flooded and the whole region affected, in a territory it pursues to liberate from the foreign aggressor to no substantial military effect?
With or without the major flooding, Ukraine is not even close to seriously expecting a successful and decisive landing operation in the Dnipro east bank, due to very obvious challenges and complexities.
So, given the fact that the sudden disaster also seriously affected Russia's military presence in the region -- I guess the most probable answer is that Russians heck things up. Yes, AGAIN. As they often do.
They absolutely failed to ensure the dam's proper operation, especially given its poor condition, and, knowingly committed gross violations, very possibly due to the fear of a possible limited Ukrainian assault from across the Dnipro.
heck around and finding out, Vol. 45633. Knowing what Russia and its system is, the insane stupidity, IMHO, feels like a very likely answer. The result is what we're seeing now live. An insane tragedy for Ukraine that we will have to deal with for decades to come.
However, the jerk of consequence is coming soon, too.
Again.