NCAA Selection Discussion - Containment Thread

[HooDat]

Wait...the Irish didn't make the tourney last year?

Why isn't this a bigger deal? I don't think I've seen anyone even mention this.

THANK YOU!!

[AreaLax]

First edition of the NCAA lacrosse committee rankings just revealed:

1. ND
2. Duke
3. UVA
4. UMD
5. PSU
6. JHU
7. Cornell
8. Army
9. Rutgers
10. Georgetown

[ICGrad]

First edition of the NCAA lacrosse committee rankings just revealed:

1. ND
2. Duke
3. UVA
4. UMD
5. PSU
6. JHU
7. Cornell
8. Army
9. Rutgers
10. Georgetown

On a Saturday afternoon @ 3:50? Really?!?

[DocBarrister]

First edition of the NCAA lacrosse committee rankings just revealed:

1. ND
2. Duke
3. UVA
4. UMD
5. PSU
6. JHU
7. Cornell
8. Army
9. Rutgers
10. Georgetown

On a Saturday afternoon @ 3:50? Really?!?

Sure, gives them time for a morning round of golf followed by lunch and some drinks in the clubhouse.

DocBarrister

[CU77]

Arny was #19 in RPI (before losing to Cornell today), with a single game against the RPI top-20, a win over Rutgers. Hard to see how that resume gets them the #8 seed ...

[Henpecked]

Ivy will get 1 at large for sure. But after that I’m not sure. Cornell and Yale are ranked high in the RPI now but Penn is 13th, Dartmouth is 22nd, Harvard is 26th, Princeton is 30th, Brown is 36th. That’s an average of 19.

Compare this to Big Ten or ACC, whose average is 11 and 12. ACC has 4 teams in Top 13 and Big Ten has every team in the Top 20.

The league won’t benefit from playing or beating each other to nearly the same degree they did last year.

I think the issue with four at-large Big Ten teams is that three at-larges are almost certainly going to UVa, Notre Dame, and Duke. That means three Big Ten teams are vying for five spots. Let’s say two are locked up by Maryland and either Penn State or Hopkins. Let’s also say Ohio State and Michigan are unlikely to make it. Of the last three AL’s:

-Loyola or Army likely take the one of those spots at this moment. Army has beaten Rutgers and Loyola has beaten Maryland and Hopkins. So the Patriot’s H2H against the Big Ten would make it tough for the committee to drop either one of those teams in favor of a B1G team.

-North Carolina has a H2H win against Hopkins. If they can win a game against either Virginia or Notre Dame, they have a great shot at making the tournament.

-Yale has two quality losses, to Penn State and Cornell. If they beat BostonU, and win most of their Ivy games, they are the second Ivy in.

-This is ignoring teams like Jacksonville (who beat Duke) or Villanova (who beat Penn State and Penn) possibly getting in if they don’t with the ASun and Big East respectively. Denver also has a pretty decent resume.

I think the B1G could possibly get a fourth team in if both Penn State and Hopkins beat Maryland. Both of those games are in College Park. Absent that, or a second-tier B1G winning the B1G tournament, there don’t seem to be alot of ways a fourth B1G gets in.

You have to be joking about Loyola getting an at large bid.

[DocBarrister]

Ivy will get 1 at large for sure. But after that I’m not sure. Cornell and Yale are ranked high in the RPI now but Penn is 13th, Dartmouth is 22nd, Harvard is 26th, Princeton is 30th, Brown is 36th. That’s an average of 19.

Compare this to Big Ten or ACC, whose average is 11 and 12. ACC has 4 teams in Top 13 and Big Ten has every team in the Top 20.

The league won’t benefit from playing or beating each other to nearly the same degree they did last year.

I think the issue with four at-large Big Ten teams is that three at-larges are almost certainly going to UVa, Notre Dame, and Duke. That means three Big Ten teams are vying for five spots. Let’s say two are locked up by Maryland and either Penn State or Hopkins. Let’s also say Ohio State and Michigan are unlikely to make it. Of the last three AL’s:

-Loyola or Army likely take the one of those spots at this moment. Army has beaten Rutgers and Loyola has beaten Maryland and Hopkins. So the Patriot’s H2H against the Big Ten would make it tough for the committee to drop either one of those teams in favor of a B1G team.

-North Carolina has a H2H win against Hopkins. If they can win a game against either Virginia or Notre Dame, they have a great shot at making the tournament.

-Yale has two quality losses, to Penn State and Cornell. If they beat BostonU, and win most of their Ivy games, they are the second Ivy in.

-This is ignoring teams like Jacksonville (who beat Duke) or Villanova (who beat Penn State and Penn) possibly getting in if they don’t with the ASun and Big East respectively. Denver also has a pretty decent resume.

I think the B1G could possibly get a fourth team in if both Penn State and Hopkins beat Maryland. Both of those games are in College Park. Absent that, or a second-tier B1G winning the B1G tournament, there don’t seem to be alot of ways a fourth B1G gets in.

You have to be joking about Loyola getting an at large bid.

Agree, Loyola is not getting an at large bid with bad losses to BU (RPI 29) and Navy (RPI 43).

Yale lost to Penn, Princeton, and Cornell. I don’t see Yale being a second Ivy team in the NCAA tournament.

Jacksonville needs to win its conference.

Rutgers is better positioned for an at large than Villanova.

DocBarrister

[NovaLax17]

Rutgers is better positioned for an at large than Villanova.

DocBarrister

What is your basis or reasoning for the argument that Rutgers is in a better position for an at large bid?

[laxreference]

The big news is that we are down to just 5 leagues with an at-large worthy team and we have our 4th lock for the field: Johns Hopkins.

ncaa_projections_NCAAD1Men_20230416.jpg (99.02 KiB) Viewed 695 times

[MoralTerpitude]

Ivy will get 1 at large for sure. But after that I’m not sure. Cornell and Yale are ranked high in the RPI now but Penn is 13th, Dartmouth is 22nd, Harvard is 26th, Princeton is 30th, Brown is 36th. That’s an average of 19.

Compare this to Big Ten or ACC, whose average is 11 and 12. ACC has 4 teams in Top 13 and Big Ten has every team in the Top 20.

The league won’t benefit from playing or beating each other to nearly the same degree they did last year.

I think the issue with four at-large Big Ten teams is that three at-larges are almost certainly going to UVa, Notre Dame, and Duke. That means three Big Ten teams are vying for five spots. Let’s say two are locked up by Maryland and either Penn State or Hopkins. Let’s also say Ohio State and Michigan are unlikely to make it. Of the last three AL’s:

-Loyola or Army likely take the one of those spots at this moment. Army has beaten Rutgers and Loyola has beaten Maryland and Hopkins. So the Patriot’s H2H against the Big Ten would make it tough for the committee to drop either one of those teams in favor of a B1G team.

-North Carolina has a H2H win against Hopkins. If they can win a game against either Virginia or Notre Dame, they have a great shot at making the tournament.

-Yale has two quality losses, to Penn State and Cornell. If they beat BostonU, and win most of their Ivy games, they are the second Ivy in.

-This is ignoring teams like Jacksonville (who beat Duke) or Villanova (who beat Penn State and Penn) possibly getting in if they don’t with the ASun and Big East respectively. Denver also has a pretty decent resume.

I think the B1G could possibly get a fourth team in if both Penn State and Hopkins beat Maryland. Both of those games are in College Park. Absent that, or a second-tier B1G winning the B1G tournament, there don’t seem to be alot of ways a fourth B1G gets in.

You have to be joking about Loyola getting an at large bid.

Note the date of my post. At the time their only losses were to Duke and Rutgers, and they had beaten both of their B1G instate rivals.

It will be interesting to see what happens with UNC. That loss to Syracuse really hurt them - they fell to #13 in the RPI, and could end up missing the tournament because of it. Tough to see them keeping either game with Notre Dame competitive.

[ICGrad]

It will be interesting to see what happens with UNC. That loss to Syracuse really hurt them - they fell to #13 in the RPI, and could end up missing the tournament because of it. Tough to see them keeping either game with Notre Dame competitive.

UNC is #13 RPIU right now, with 9 at-large candidates in front of them. Obviously, some of those teams could (and will) stumble but unless UNC pulls the upset in one of their two remaining tilts against ND, they'll finish 7-7.

I'd be surprised if the committee picked a 7-7 bubble team with other viable candidates around/ahead of them, but then they've made similar selections before, so you never know.

[ICGrad]

The big news is that we are down to just 5 leagues with an at-large worthy team and we have our 4th lock for the field: Johns Hopkins.


ncaa_projections_NCAAD1Men_20230416.jpg

Interesting that the Ivies seem to have a better than average chance of at least one at-large bid.

EDIT: Also, with the win over UNC, Syracuse is guaranteed at least an 8-7 record, with games remaining with Duke and Virginia. I would think that they would be in the work-to-column, and winning one of their last two games might put them in? Or is there RPI just too low to make it up at this point, no matter how they finish?

Is that St Bonny's game going to bite Syracuse in the ass like it did Cornell a few years ago?

[MoralTerpitude]

It will be interesting to see what happens with UNC. That loss to Syracuse really hurt them - they fell to #13 in the RPI, and could end up missing the tournament because of it. Tough to see them keeping either game with Notre Dame competitive.

UNC is #13 RPIU right now, with 9 at-large candidates in front of them. Obviously, some of those teams could (and will) stumble but unless UNC pulls the upset in one of their two remaining tilts against ND, they'll finish 7-7.

I'd be surprised if the committee picked a 7-7 bubble team with other viable candidates around/ahead of them, but then they've made similar selections before, so you never know.

In the last six tournaments, the selection committee has granted at-large bids to several 8-6 and 8-7 teams, including UNC multiple times (including coming off their 2016 championship), but no teams at .500 or below. So I would be surprised as well. But they do have that win over Hopkins, which is looking like it will be a top-5 RPI win by the end of the season.

[HopFan16]

I have a hard time seeing how UNC doesn't get in if they beat ND at least once. That'd give them a second top 5 win and probably an RPI in the vicinity of 10. That resume would stack up pretty well against several other bubble teams, even at 8-6.

By the same token I don't think they're getting in if they lose both to ND. Then they're 7-7 and the lone Hopkins win is doing a lot of work. I have doubts that that one win would be enough of a differentiator over teams like Rutgers/Yale/Penn/Nova/Denver. But a win over ND to add to that would earn you some separation from the pack IMO.

One thing that is in their favor is right now they have no bad losses, which several other bubble teams do have. But that changes if Ohio State or Syracuse fall out of the top 20.

[joewillie78]

Rutgers is better positioned for an at large than Villanova.

DocBarrister

What is your basis or reasoning for the argument that Rutgers is in a better position for an at large bid?

They play in the BIG and Nova doesn't. Like my Ivy bias, he has an extreme BIG bias. That simple.
Gobigred
Joewillie78

[keno in reno]

The big news is that we are down to just 5 leagues with an at-large worthy team and we have our 4th lock for the field: Johns Hopkins.


ncaa_projections_NCAAD1Men_20230416.jpg

Sorry but if JHU is a lock, then so is Maryland. I'm not saying JHU is not a lock or that Maryland is a lock (confusing phrase to write), just that if JHU's resume ensures a berth, then Maryland's better resume also does.

[wgdsr]

The big news is that we are down to just 5 leagues with an at-large worthy team and we have our 4th lock for the field: Johns Hopkins.


ncaa_projections_NCAAD1Men_20230416.jpg

Interesting that the Ivies seem to have a better than average chance of at least one at-large bid.

EDIT: Also, with the win over UNC, Syracuse is guaranteed at least an 8-7 record, with games remaining with Duke and Virginia. I would think that they would be in the work-to-column, and winning one of their last two games might put them in? Or is there RPI just too low to make it up at this point, no matter how they finish?

Is that St Bonny's game going to bite Syracuse in the ass like it did Cornell a few years ago?

cuse: one win gets them maybe mid-teens rpi. their sos will now not only firmly be inside the top 5, but maybe top 2 (it was ~27+ 2 weeks ago and is now 5).
and vermont, p'ton (and unc) are inside the top 20 for now. no bad losses.

might depend on those 3 mostly staying inside that cutline.

[ICGrad]

The big news is that we are down to just 5 leagues with an at-large worthy team and we have our 4th lock for the field: Johns Hopkins.


ncaa_projections_NCAAD1Men_20230416.jpg

Interesting that the Ivies seem to have a better than average chance of at least one at-large bid.

EDIT: Also, with the win over UNC, Syracuse is guaranteed at least an 8-7 record, with games remaining with Duke and Virginia. I would think that they would be in the work-to-column, and winning one of their last two games might put them in? Or is there RPI just too low to make it up at this point, no matter how they finish?

Is that St Bonny's game going to bite Syracuse in the ass like it did Cornell a few years ago?

cuse: one win gets them maybe mid-teens rpi. their sos will now not only firmly be inside the top 5, but maybe top 2 (it was ~27+ 2 weeks ago and is now 5).
and vermont, p'ton (and unc) are inside the top 20 for now. no bad losses.

might depend on those 3 mostly staying inside that cutline.

Yeah...I was referring more to the fact that 'Cuse doesn't even appear in the Work to Do column, suggesting they don't have a path into the tourney. I find that hard to believe at this point.

[ICGrad]

The big news is that we are down to just 5 leagues with an at-large worthy team and we have our 4th lock for the field: Johns Hopkins.


ncaa_projections_NCAAD1Men_20230416.jpg

Interesting that the Ivies seem to have a better than average chance of at least one at-large bid.

EDIT: Also, with the win over UNC, Syracuse is guaranteed at least an 8-7 record, with games remaining with Duke and Virginia. I would think that they would be in the work-to-column, and winning one of their last two games might put them in? Or is there RPI just too low to make it up at this point, no matter how they finish?

Is that St Bonny's game going to bite Syracuse in the ass like it did Cornell a few years ago?

cuse: one win gets them maybe mid-teens rpi. their sos will now not only firmly be inside the top 5, but maybe top 2 (it was ~27+ 2 weeks ago and is now 5).
and vermont, p'ton (and unc) are inside the top 20 for now. no bad losses.

might depend on those 3 mostly staying inside that cutline.

Yeah...I was referring more to the fact that 'Cuse doesn't even appear in the Work to Do column, suggesting they don't have a path into the tourney. I find that hard to believe at this point.

EDIT: I'd have to think if they win both of their remaining games and finish 10-5, they'd have to be in, no?

[jrn19]

A split would get Cuse a Top 5 win, the only other team on the bubble who has one of those is UNC, but it would be their only top 10 win, and Penn does have 2 of those for now at least (Yale and Georgetown) as does Villanova (Penn and Penn State.) Maryland also probably goes back in the Top 5 RPI with a win tonight, so if Michigan was to beat Penn State tonight, they'd be on the bubble and have a Top 5 RPI win, as well as an additional Top 10 win. If Maryland lost, Rutgers would probably have a spot locked up and you'd be looking at 2 spots left.

A split gets Cuse from outside looking in to right in the mosh pit with everyone else, where as 2 wins gets them no questions asked in the field and frankly they're probably the 8 seed.