Re: 2021 NCAA Tournament
Posted: Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:22 pm
https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/ ... 4-54893749
IL's 2021 Bracketology: A First Look Like Never Before
Thursday April 22nd, 2021 6:00pm
It’s been nearly two years since the last time Inside Lacrosse posted a Bracketology piece, and of course, so much has changed.
But for the purposes of this exercise, the most dramatic change is the Big Ten and MAAC teams’ scheduling only conference opponents, thereby rendering the RPI — the building block of all of the NCAA selection criteria — essentially unusable.
A team's RPI formula is comparatively simple: it’s 25% of its winning percentage * 50% of its opponents’ winning percentage * 25% of its opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage. The problem arises when teams play only within its (in the Big Ten’s case) six-team group; their RPIs are completely independent from all the other teams’. Yes, every team still has a score, but some teams’ scores have no relationship to one another and, as a result, the ranking is meaningless.
Look at the NCAA’s recent release of the RPI. In a normal circumstance, a 9-0 Maryland team would likely be No. 1 overall, at worst top three; their RPI is 7th. An 8-0 Lehigh wouldn’t be too far behind; they’re 13th. It’s logical that the Big Ten teams are distributed throughout the 66 DI teams that have played a game this season (Rutgers 12, Ohio State 33, Penn State 42, Michigan 52, Johns Hopkins 56) because their RPI is functioning like a mini RPI alongside the bigger RPI. Perhaps no ranking better illustrates the RPI’s current flaw better than 1-0 Marist (the NCAA's hasn’t been updated since their Tuesday win over Quinnipiac) being ranked No. 6 and 5-1 Monmouth being ranked No. 11 (we project that, with the win, the Red Foxes RPI jumped to No. 1) .
While the RPI isn’t necessarily its own criterion, it’s the basis upon which the other criteria are formed: Strength of Schedule, Non-Conference SOS and Quality Wins are all outcomes of the RPI.
So if those criteria can’t be used, what will be used in its place? We don’t really know yet.
Part of the reason we don’t know is because the NCAA Committee had a lot of fish to fry; only in the last week have they figured out (or decided) where they’re going to play the first round games. On Wednesday, they hosted a call with the Regional Advisory Committees to get coach feedback on current team performances.
On March 31, Committee chair Tim Leonard told IL “[The data issues are] really going to be difficult on how we do this, and the eye test is going to come into play a lot more than it ever does.”
As a proxy for the eye test, which is informed by coaches on the “RAC calls” (as they’re referred to), we’ve included the coaches’ poll ranking in our resume list below.
Luckily for the committee, the most important decision — which at-large team is the last selected for the tournament field and which is the first out — appears to be pretty clear… for now.
Seeding the top eight teams appears as though it may be a substantial challenge, and matching up their first round opponents will be an interesting exercise from a geographic perspective given the decision to host first round games at four sites. That said, the line between No. 8 and No. 9 is negligible this year since the top eight seeds do not host at their home venue.
Assumptions
AQ: Currently the best winning percentage in their league.
America East: Stony Brook
Big East: Georgetown
Big Ten: Maryland
CAA: Delaware
MAAC: Monmouth
NEC: Saint Joseph’s
Patriot: Lehigh
SoCon: Richmond
Additional Rules: Teams must be .500 or better for at-large consideration (this has been true in the past; it’s unclear whether that rule is in place for 2021), teams must have played a minimum of five games (in typical years, the minimum is 12 games; it was lowered this year, and it’s unclear what the minimum will be set at because there’s been discussion that previously set minimums may be adjusted down).
AQs and Potential Bid Thieves
Big Ten
The Buckeyes need a win in the regular season finale and a win in the Big Ten conference tournament to be eligible for an at-large bid, but if we are to consider RPI in 2021, even a trip to the Big Ten conference championship is not expected to be enough to get Ohio State into the Top 20 RPI. With Maryland an essential lock for the NCAA Tournament and Rutgers very much in the conversation for an at-large, it would seem the only way for the Big Ten to produce three teams would be to have someone outside of the Terps and Scarlet Knights win the conference tournament.
Big East
Georgetown strengthened its tournament chances with an overtime win against Denver, snapping the Pioneers’ eight-game winning streak in the process. Both teams currently sit in the top 10 in both RPI and the coaches poll and have to be considered in at-large conversation should they falter in the conference tournament. Villanova, who has the fourth highest offensive efficiency since its season opener, could potentially play four top 20 teams in the next two weeks between its regular season slate and conference tournament. If the season ended today, Denver and Georgetown would be considered in, but it's worth following the Big East to see how the story evolves.
Patriot League
With a Top 10 RPI win over Syracuse and the third overall RPI, Army and its defensive unit that ranks No. 1 in efficiency has placed itself firmly in the conversation for a seed. Lehigh, who remains undefeated and owns a Top 5 RPI win over Army, also finds itself in the at-large conversation. Should a third team win the Patriot League, there is an argument that both Army and Lehigh could still get at-large bids. The League just expanded its tournament by reinstating its quarterfinal round, giving Navy and Colgate second life.
No. 1 Seed
The first criterion listed for selection is record — that’s often forgotten. Maryland, at 9-0, obviously has that box checked. Duke’s 11 wins are best in the country, as well, and its quality win resume is eye-popping. Incorporating the subjective criteria is important in this instance, as well. One factor in bracket construction that Quint Kessenich has brought up on the Quick Restart podcast is separating the two best ACC teams at the top of the bracket to make sure they don’t meet in the Semifinals, given that they will have played at least once, and potentially twice, previously.
This is the first time doing this very unorthodox exercise, so it’s likely to change based on feedback we receive from doing it.
Last In/First Out
Right now, Syracuse seems to be pretty clearly behind the group of Denver/Georgetown/Rutgers/Army, and ahead of Drexel as the last team in. The Orange have a Top 5 RPI win while the Dragons have two Top 20 wins, a better RPI and Coaches’ Poll ranking, though their win percentage is 20% worse.
1. Duke (11-1)
RPI: 2
Coaches’ Poll: 3
Top 5 Wins: 2
Top 10 Wins: 2
Top 20 Wins: 2
2. Maryland (9-0)
RPI: 7
Coaches’ Poll: 1
Top 5 Wins: 0
Top 10 Wins: 0
Top 20 Wins: 2
3. Notre Dame (6-1)
RPI: 8
Coaches’ Poll: 2
Top 5 Wins: 1
Top 10 Wins: 1
Top 20 Wins: 0
4. Virginia (10-3)
RPI: 5
Coaches’ Poll: 5
Top 5 Wins: 2
Top 10 Wins: 1
Top 20 Wins: 2
5. North Carolina (9-2)
RPI: 4
Coaches’ Poll: 4
Top 5 Wins: 1
Top 10 Wins: 2
Top 20 Wins: 1
6. Lehigh (8-0)
RPI: 13
Coaches’ Poll: 7
Top 5 Wins: 1
Top 10 Wins: 0
Top 20 Wins: 1
7. Rutgers (7-2)
RPI: 12
Coaches’ Poll: 6
Top 5 Wins: 0
Top 10 Wins: 0
Top 20 Wins: 0
8. Army West Point (6-2)
RPI: 3
Coaches’ Poll: 10
Top 5 Wins: 0
Top 10 Wins: 1
Top 20 Wins: 1
9. Georgetown (9-1)
RPI: 9
Coaches’ Poll: 8
Top 5 Wins: 0
Top 10 Wins: 1
Top 20 Wins: 0
10. Denver (9-3)
RPI: 10
Coaches’ Poll: 9
Top 5 Wins: 0
Top 10 Wins: 1
Top 20 Wins: 0
11. Syracuse (5-4)
RPI: 6
Coaches’ Poll: 11
Top 5 Wins: 1
Top 10 Wins: 0
Top 20 Wins: 0
12. Drexel (6-2)
RPI: 14
Coaches’ Poll: 12
Top 5 Wins: 0
Top 10 Wins: 0
Top 20 Wins: 2
13. Delaware (8-2)
RPI: 15
Coaches’ Poll: 13
Top 5 Wins: 0
Top 10 Wins: 0
Top 20 Wins: 3
14. Richmond (5-4)
RPI: 18
Coaches’ Poll: 14
Top 5 Wins: 0
Top 10 Wins: 0
Top 20 Wins: 1
15. Navy (4-2)
RPI: 16
Coaches’ Poll: 16
Top 5 Wins: 0
Top 10 Wins: 0
Top 20 Wins: 0
16. Ohio State (4-5)
RPI: 33
Coaches’ Poll: 15
Top 5 Wins: 0
Top 10 Wins: 0
Top 20 Wins: 0
IL's 2021 Bracketology: A First Look Like Never Before
Thursday April 22nd, 2021 6:00pm
It’s been nearly two years since the last time Inside Lacrosse posted a Bracketology piece, and of course, so much has changed.
But for the purposes of this exercise, the most dramatic change is the Big Ten and MAAC teams’ scheduling only conference opponents, thereby rendering the RPI — the building block of all of the NCAA selection criteria — essentially unusable.
A team's RPI formula is comparatively simple: it’s 25% of its winning percentage * 50% of its opponents’ winning percentage * 25% of its opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage. The problem arises when teams play only within its (in the Big Ten’s case) six-team group; their RPIs are completely independent from all the other teams’. Yes, every team still has a score, but some teams’ scores have no relationship to one another and, as a result, the ranking is meaningless.
Look at the NCAA’s recent release of the RPI. In a normal circumstance, a 9-0 Maryland team would likely be No. 1 overall, at worst top three; their RPI is 7th. An 8-0 Lehigh wouldn’t be too far behind; they’re 13th. It’s logical that the Big Ten teams are distributed throughout the 66 DI teams that have played a game this season (Rutgers 12, Ohio State 33, Penn State 42, Michigan 52, Johns Hopkins 56) because their RPI is functioning like a mini RPI alongside the bigger RPI. Perhaps no ranking better illustrates the RPI’s current flaw better than 1-0 Marist (the NCAA's hasn’t been updated since their Tuesday win over Quinnipiac) being ranked No. 6 and 5-1 Monmouth being ranked No. 11 (we project that, with the win, the Red Foxes RPI jumped to No. 1) .
While the RPI isn’t necessarily its own criterion, it’s the basis upon which the other criteria are formed: Strength of Schedule, Non-Conference SOS and Quality Wins are all outcomes of the RPI.
So if those criteria can’t be used, what will be used in its place? We don’t really know yet.
Part of the reason we don’t know is because the NCAA Committee had a lot of fish to fry; only in the last week have they figured out (or decided) where they’re going to play the first round games. On Wednesday, they hosted a call with the Regional Advisory Committees to get coach feedback on current team performances.
On March 31, Committee chair Tim Leonard told IL “[The data issues are] really going to be difficult on how we do this, and the eye test is going to come into play a lot more than it ever does.”
As a proxy for the eye test, which is informed by coaches on the “RAC calls” (as they’re referred to), we’ve included the coaches’ poll ranking in our resume list below.
Luckily for the committee, the most important decision — which at-large team is the last selected for the tournament field and which is the first out — appears to be pretty clear… for now.
Seeding the top eight teams appears as though it may be a substantial challenge, and matching up their first round opponents will be an interesting exercise from a geographic perspective given the decision to host first round games at four sites. That said, the line between No. 8 and No. 9 is negligible this year since the top eight seeds do not host at their home venue.
Assumptions
AQ: Currently the best winning percentage in their league.
America East: Stony Brook
Big East: Georgetown
Big Ten: Maryland
CAA: Delaware
MAAC: Monmouth
NEC: Saint Joseph’s
Patriot: Lehigh
SoCon: Richmond
Additional Rules: Teams must be .500 or better for at-large consideration (this has been true in the past; it’s unclear whether that rule is in place for 2021), teams must have played a minimum of five games (in typical years, the minimum is 12 games; it was lowered this year, and it’s unclear what the minimum will be set at because there’s been discussion that previously set minimums may be adjusted down).
AQs and Potential Bid Thieves
Big Ten
The Buckeyes need a win in the regular season finale and a win in the Big Ten conference tournament to be eligible for an at-large bid, but if we are to consider RPI in 2021, even a trip to the Big Ten conference championship is not expected to be enough to get Ohio State into the Top 20 RPI. With Maryland an essential lock for the NCAA Tournament and Rutgers very much in the conversation for an at-large, it would seem the only way for the Big Ten to produce three teams would be to have someone outside of the Terps and Scarlet Knights win the conference tournament.
Big East
Georgetown strengthened its tournament chances with an overtime win against Denver, snapping the Pioneers’ eight-game winning streak in the process. Both teams currently sit in the top 10 in both RPI and the coaches poll and have to be considered in at-large conversation should they falter in the conference tournament. Villanova, who has the fourth highest offensive efficiency since its season opener, could potentially play four top 20 teams in the next two weeks between its regular season slate and conference tournament. If the season ended today, Denver and Georgetown would be considered in, but it's worth following the Big East to see how the story evolves.
Patriot League
With a Top 10 RPI win over Syracuse and the third overall RPI, Army and its defensive unit that ranks No. 1 in efficiency has placed itself firmly in the conversation for a seed. Lehigh, who remains undefeated and owns a Top 5 RPI win over Army, also finds itself in the at-large conversation. Should a third team win the Patriot League, there is an argument that both Army and Lehigh could still get at-large bids. The League just expanded its tournament by reinstating its quarterfinal round, giving Navy and Colgate second life.
No. 1 Seed
The first criterion listed for selection is record — that’s often forgotten. Maryland, at 9-0, obviously has that box checked. Duke’s 11 wins are best in the country, as well, and its quality win resume is eye-popping. Incorporating the subjective criteria is important in this instance, as well. One factor in bracket construction that Quint Kessenich has brought up on the Quick Restart podcast is separating the two best ACC teams at the top of the bracket to make sure they don’t meet in the Semifinals, given that they will have played at least once, and potentially twice, previously.
This is the first time doing this very unorthodox exercise, so it’s likely to change based on feedback we receive from doing it.
Last In/First Out
Right now, Syracuse seems to be pretty clearly behind the group of Denver/Georgetown/Rutgers/Army, and ahead of Drexel as the last team in. The Orange have a Top 5 RPI win while the Dragons have two Top 20 wins, a better RPI and Coaches’ Poll ranking, though their win percentage is 20% worse.
1. Duke (11-1)
RPI: 2
Coaches’ Poll: 3
Top 5 Wins: 2
Top 10 Wins: 2
Top 20 Wins: 2
2. Maryland (9-0)
RPI: 7
Coaches’ Poll: 1
Top 5 Wins: 0
Top 10 Wins: 0
Top 20 Wins: 2
3. Notre Dame (6-1)
RPI: 8
Coaches’ Poll: 2
Top 5 Wins: 1
Top 10 Wins: 1
Top 20 Wins: 0
4. Virginia (10-3)
RPI: 5
Coaches’ Poll: 5
Top 5 Wins: 2
Top 10 Wins: 1
Top 20 Wins: 2
5. North Carolina (9-2)
RPI: 4
Coaches’ Poll: 4
Top 5 Wins: 1
Top 10 Wins: 2
Top 20 Wins: 1
6. Lehigh (8-0)
RPI: 13
Coaches’ Poll: 7
Top 5 Wins: 1
Top 10 Wins: 0
Top 20 Wins: 1
7. Rutgers (7-2)
RPI: 12
Coaches’ Poll: 6
Top 5 Wins: 0
Top 10 Wins: 0
Top 20 Wins: 0
8. Army West Point (6-2)
RPI: 3
Coaches’ Poll: 10
Top 5 Wins: 0
Top 10 Wins: 1
Top 20 Wins: 1
9. Georgetown (9-1)
RPI: 9
Coaches’ Poll: 8
Top 5 Wins: 0
Top 10 Wins: 1
Top 20 Wins: 0
10. Denver (9-3)
RPI: 10
Coaches’ Poll: 9
Top 5 Wins: 0
Top 10 Wins: 1
Top 20 Wins: 0
11. Syracuse (5-4)
RPI: 6
Coaches’ Poll: 11
Top 5 Wins: 1
Top 10 Wins: 0
Top 20 Wins: 0
12. Drexel (6-2)
RPI: 14
Coaches’ Poll: 12
Top 5 Wins: 0
Top 10 Wins: 0
Top 20 Wins: 2
13. Delaware (8-2)
RPI: 15
Coaches’ Poll: 13
Top 5 Wins: 0
Top 10 Wins: 0
Top 20 Wins: 3
14. Richmond (5-4)
RPI: 18
Coaches’ Poll: 14
Top 5 Wins: 0
Top 10 Wins: 0
Top 20 Wins: 1
15. Navy (4-2)
RPI: 16
Coaches’ Poll: 16
Top 5 Wins: 0
Top 10 Wins: 0
Top 20 Wins: 0
16. Ohio State (4-5)
RPI: 33
Coaches’ Poll: 15
Top 5 Wins: 0
Top 10 Wins: 0
Top 20 Wins: 0