2021 NCAA Tournament

[DU-fan]

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/ ... 4-54893749

IL's 2021 Bracketology: A First Look Like Never Before
Thursday April 22nd, 2021 6:00pm

It’s been nearly two years since the last time Inside Lacrosse posted a Bracketology piece, and of course, so much has changed.

But for the purposes of this exercise, the most dramatic change is the Big Ten and MAAC teams’ scheduling only conference opponents, thereby rendering the RPI — the building block of all of the NCAA selection criteria — essentially unusable.

A team's RPI formula is comparatively simple: it’s 25% of its winning percentage * 50% of its opponents’ winning percentage * 25% of its opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage. The problem arises when teams play only within its (in the Big Ten’s case) six-team group; their RPIs are completely independent from all the other teams’. Yes, every team still has a score, but some teams’ scores have no relationship to one another and, as a result, the ranking is meaningless.

Look at the NCAA’s recent release of the RPI. In a normal circumstance, a 9-0 Maryland team would likely be No. 1 overall, at worst top three; their RPI is 7th. An 8-0 Lehigh wouldn’t be too far behind; they’re 13th. It’s logical that the Big Ten teams are distributed throughout the 66 DI teams that have played a game this season (Rutgers 12, Ohio State 33, Penn State 42, Michigan 52, Johns Hopkins 56) because their RPI is functioning like a mini RPI alongside the bigger RPI. Perhaps no ranking better illustrates the RPI’s current flaw better than 1-0 Marist (the NCAA's hasn’t been updated since their Tuesday win over Quinnipiac) being ranked No. 6 and 5-1 Monmouth being ranked No. 11 (we project that, with the win, the Red Foxes RPI jumped to No. 1) .

While the RPI isn’t necessarily its own criterion, it’s the basis upon which the other criteria are formed: Strength of Schedule, Non-Conference SOS and Quality Wins are all outcomes of the RPI.

So if those criteria can’t be used, what will be used in its place? We don’t really know yet.

Part of the reason we don’t know is because the NCAA Committee had a lot of fish to fry; only in the last week have they figured out (or decided) where they’re going to play the first round games. On Wednesday, they hosted a call with the Regional Advisory Committees to get coach feedback on current team performances.

On March 31, Committee chair Tim Leonard told IL “[The data issues are] really going to be difficult on how we do this, and the eye test is going to come into play a lot more than it ever does.”

As a proxy for the eye test, which is informed by coaches on the “RAC calls” (as they’re referred to), we’ve included the coaches’ poll ranking in our resume list below.

Luckily for the committee, the most important decision — which at-large team is the last selected for the tournament field and which is the first out — appears to be pretty clear… for now.

Seeding the top eight teams appears as though it may be a substantial challenge, and matching up their first round opponents will be an interesting exercise from a geographic perspective given the decision to host first round games at four sites. That said, the line between No. 8 and No. 9 is negligible this year since the top eight seeds do not host at their home venue.

Assumptions
AQ: Currently the best winning percentage in their league.

America East: Stony Brook
Big East: Georgetown
Big Ten: Maryland
CAA: Delaware
MAAC: Monmouth
NEC: Saint Joseph’s
Patriot: Lehigh
SoCon: Richmond
Additional Rules: Teams must be .500 or better for at-large consideration (this has been true in the past; it’s unclear whether that rule is in place for 2021), teams must have played a minimum of five games (in typical years, the minimum is 12 games; it was lowered this year, and it’s unclear what the minimum will be set at because there’s been discussion that previously set minimums may be adjusted down).

AQs and Potential Bid Thieves
Big Ten

The Buckeyes need a win in the regular season finale and a win in the Big Ten conference tournament to be eligible for an at-large bid, but if we are to consider RPI in 2021, even a trip to the Big Ten conference championship is not expected to be enough to get Ohio State into the Top 20 RPI. With Maryland an essential lock for the NCAA Tournament and Rutgers very much in the conversation for an at-large, it would seem the only way for the Big Ten to produce three teams would be to have someone outside of the Terps and Scarlet Knights win the conference tournament.

Big East

Georgetown strengthened its tournament chances with an overtime win against Denver, snapping the Pioneers’ eight-game winning streak in the process. Both teams currently sit in the top 10 in both RPI and the coaches poll and have to be considered in at-large conversation should they falter in the conference tournament. Villanova, who has the fourth highest offensive efficiency since its season opener, could potentially play four top 20 teams in the next two weeks between its regular season slate and conference tournament. If the season ended today, Denver and Georgetown would be considered in, but it's worth following the Big East to see how the story evolves.

Patriot League

With a Top 10 RPI win over Syracuse and the third overall RPI, Army and its defensive unit that ranks No. 1 in efficiency has placed itself firmly in the conversation for a seed. Lehigh, who remains undefeated and owns a Top 5 RPI win over Army, also finds itself in the at-large conversation. Should a third team win the Patriot League, there is an argument that both Army and Lehigh could still get at-large bids. The League just expanded its tournament by reinstating its quarterfinal round, giving Navy and Colgate second life.

No. 1 Seed
The first criterion listed for selection is record — that’s often forgotten. Maryland, at 9-0, obviously has that box checked. Duke’s 11 wins are best in the country, as well, and its quality win resume is eye-popping. Incorporating the subjective criteria is important in this instance, as well. One factor in bracket construction that Quint Kessenich has brought up on the Quick Restart podcast is separating the two best ACC teams at the top of the bracket to make sure they don’t meet in the Semifinals, given that they will have played at least once, and potentially twice, previously.

This is the first time doing this very unorthodox exercise, so it’s likely to change based on feedback we receive from doing it.

Last In/First Out
Right now, Syracuse seems to be pretty clearly behind the group of Denver/Georgetown/Rutgers/Army, and ahead of Drexel as the last team in. The Orange have a Top 5 RPI win while the Dragons have two Top 20 wins, a better RPI and Coaches’ Poll ranking, though their win percentage is 20% worse.



1. Duke (11-1)
RPI: 2
Coaches’ Poll: 3
Top 5 Wins: 2
Top 10 Wins: 2
Top 20 Wins: 2

2. Maryland (9-0)
RPI: 7
Coaches’ Poll: 1
Top 5 Wins: 0
Top 10 Wins: 0
Top 20 Wins: 2

3. Notre Dame (6-1)
RPI: 8
Coaches’ Poll: 2
Top 5 Wins: 1
Top 10 Wins: 1
Top 20 Wins: 0

4. Virginia (10-3)
RPI: 5
Coaches’ Poll: 5
Top 5 Wins: 2
Top 10 Wins: 1
Top 20 Wins: 2

5. North Carolina (9-2)
RPI: 4
Coaches’ Poll: 4
Top 5 Wins: 1
Top 10 Wins: 2
Top 20 Wins: 1

6. Lehigh (8-0)
RPI: 13
Coaches’ Poll: 7
Top 5 Wins: 1
Top 10 Wins: 0
Top 20 Wins: 1

7. Rutgers (7-2)
RPI: 12
Coaches’ Poll: 6
Top 5 Wins: 0
Top 10 Wins: 0
Top 20 Wins: 0

8. Army West Point (6-2)
RPI: 3
Coaches’ Poll: 10
Top 5 Wins: 0
Top 10 Wins: 1
Top 20 Wins: 1

9. Georgetown (9-1)
RPI: 9
Coaches’ Poll: 8
Top 5 Wins: 0
Top 10 Wins: 1
Top 20 Wins: 0

10. Denver (9-3)
RPI: 10
Coaches’ Poll: 9
Top 5 Wins: 0
Top 10 Wins: 1
Top 20 Wins: 0

11. Syracuse (5-4)
RPI: 6
Coaches’ Poll: 11
Top 5 Wins: 1
Top 10 Wins: 0
Top 20 Wins: 0

12. Drexel (6-2)
RPI: 14
Coaches’ Poll: 12
Top 5 Wins: 0
Top 10 Wins: 0
Top 20 Wins: 2

13. Delaware (8-2)
RPI: 15
Coaches’ Poll: 13
Top 5 Wins: 0
Top 10 Wins: 0
Top 20 Wins: 3

14. Richmond (5-4)
RPI: 18
Coaches’ Poll: 14
Top 5 Wins: 0
Top 10 Wins: 0
Top 20 Wins: 1

15. Navy (4-2)
RPI: 16
Coaches’ Poll: 16
Top 5 Wins: 0
Top 10 Wins: 0
Top 20 Wins: 0

16. Ohio State (4-5)
RPI: 33
Coaches’ Poll: 15
Top 5 Wins: 0
Top 10 Wins: 0
Top 20 Wins: 0

[Wheels]

So they say the RPI is worthless but then not just list it for each team but use it to assess Top 5/10/20 wins?

Think Rutgers will be moved to the other side of the bracket to avoid what will likely be a 4th match-up against Maryland. Doubt they'd want that in the Quarters.

[DU-fan]

So they say the RPI is worthless but then not just list it for each team but use it to assess Top 5/10/20 wins?

Think Rutgers will be moved to the other side of the bracket to avoid what will likely be a 4th match-up against Maryland. Doubt they'd want that in the Quarters.

Agreed. I also think the Coaches poll https://usila.org has more merit than RPI this year. I doubt RPI will be used that much.

Current coaches poll ranking (prior to Duke beating ND) is:

Team (First-Place Votes) Rank Record Points Last Week
Maryland (21) 1 9-0 420 1
Notre Dame 2 6-1 395 2
Duke 3 11-1 378 3
North Carolina 4 9-2 352 5
Virginia 5 10-3 326 4
Rutgers 6 7-2 300 7
Lehigh 7 8-0 285 8
Georgetown 8 9-1 280 10
Denver 9 9-3 253 6
Army 10 6-2 239 11
Syracuse 11 5-4 206 9
Drexel 12 6-2 165 14
Delaware 13 8-2 146 16
Richmond 14 5-4 132 13
Ohio State 15 4-5 93 12
Navy 16 4-2 84 N/R
Stony Brook 17 8-3 77 18
Villanova 18 5-3 69 20
Loyola 19 5-5 39 15
Hofstra T-20 6-4 38 17
Albany (NY) T-20 6-3 38 19

[AreaLax]

NCAA has announced they will allow 50% capacity. CT will be dropping the capacity restrictions in mid May.

[Farfromgeneva]

So they say the RPI is worthless but then not just list it for each team but use it to assess Top 5/10/20 wins?

Think Rutgers will be moved to the other side of the bracket to avoid what will likely be a 4th match-up against Maryland. Doubt they'd want that in the Quarters.

Agreed. I also think the Coaches poll https://usila.org has more merit than RPI this year. I doubt RPI will be used that much.

Current coaches poll ranking (prior to Duke beating ND) is:

Team (First-Place Votes) Rank Record Points Last Week
Maryland (21) 1 9-0 420 1
Notre Dame 2 6-1 395 2
Duke 3 11-1 378 3
North Carolina 4 9-2 352 5
Virginia 5 10-3 326 4
Rutgers 6 7-2 300 7
Lehigh 7 8-0 285 8
Georgetown 8 9-1 280 10
Denver 9 9-3 253 6
Army 10 6-2 239 11
Syracuse 11 5-4 206 9
Drexel 12 6-2 165 14
Delaware 13 8-2 146 16
Richmond 14 5-4 132 13
Ohio State 15 4-5 93 12
Navy 16 4-2 84 N/R
Stony Brook 17 8-3 77 18
Villanova 18 5-3 69 20
Loyola 19 5-5 39 15
Hofstra T-20 6-4 38 17
Albany (NY) T-20 6-3 38 19

Ohio State really sticks out here. If they use this that is a meaningful outlier IMO. Navy and Loyola’s placement could be impactful as well

[rolldodge]

IL is highly weighting coaches poll. That’s the only justification for seeding Rutgers over Georgetown

Rutgers at 6 in coaches poll is an overestimation of Penn State, JHU, and Ohio Stare based on pre-season expectations. Big East top 3 (Gtown, Denver, Villanova) are stronger on average this year than Maryland, Rutgers, OSU.

[DU-fan]

I'm not sure I understand the OSU comments. Every projection I see has them out right now. Loyola and Navy are on the outside too right now.

Laxbytes Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities - http://www.laxbytes.com/OUTPUT/SERVER/men/ncaapb01.php

RNK TEAMNAME CONFERENCE TOURN AQ
PROB PROB RPI QW SOS W L
[3] [4] [2]

1 Duke ACC 100.00 0.00 1 1 3 12 1
2 Maryland B1G 100.00 58.00 5 5 37 9 0
3 Rutgers B1G 100.00 27.60 12 9 41 7 2
4 UNC ACC 100.00 0.00 2 3 2 9 2
5 Virginia ACC 100.00 0.00 4 2 4 10 3
6 Army Patriot 99.50 66.80 6 14 8 6 2
7 Denver Big East 98.80 37.10 11 7 6 9 3
8 Notre Dame ACC 96.40 0.00 3 4 7 6 2
9 Georgetown Big East 92.20 43.70 10 8 17 9 1
10 Drexel CAA 80.00 52.80 9 12 33 6 2
11 Delaware CAA 73.10 21.20 14 23 24 7 2
12 Richmond SoCon 67.90 54.80 18 24 21 5 4
13 Syracuse ACC 64.50 0.00 8 11 1 5 4
14 St Josephs NEC 48.90 41.60 23 33 28 6 3
15 Lehigh Patriot 40.10 19.60 16 6 62 8 0
16 Stony Brook America East 40.10 37.70 19 13 22 8 3
17 Marist MAAC 38.70 25.90 7 10 45 2 0
18 Manhattan MAAC 33.90 31.90 22 38 19 4 3
19 High Point SoCon 31.30 26.50 29 36 13 4 5
20 Bryant NEC 30.40 30.40 15 32 25 5 3
21 Vermont America East 29.00 29.00 33 39 31 5 3
22 Monmouth MAAC 28.90 26.10 20 30 47 5 2
23 Albany America East 27.90 26.80 17 25 26 6 3
24 Villanova Big East 25.80 11.20 13 27 12 5 3
25 Hobart NEC 17.50 17.50 28 26 59 3 2
26 Loyola Patriot 16.40 6.50 34 42 15 5 5
27 UMass CAA 16.30 16.20 25 45 16 3 4
28 Jacksonville SoCon 12.20 12.20 32 37 34 6 5
29 Navy Patriot 11.20 1.50 38 44 48 4 2
30 OSU B1G 10.40 9.70 40 46 39 4 5

[10stone5]

That’s the benefit of laf’s calculations,

you can go right down the line of probabilities
and get a rapid view of who’s in, who’s out.

So 1 through 9 are in one way or another.

What sticks out like a sore thumb is the last remaining
at large, 7 of 8 are accounted for,

the final at large among Drexel, Delaware, Richmond, Syracuse, Lehigh. I assume St. Joe’s is at 48% because
they are odds on favorite to win the NEC.

Who gets that one remaining at large, who gets in ?

[rolldodge]

That’s the benefit of laf’s calculations,

you can go right down the line of probabilities
and get a rapid view of who’s in, who’s out.

So 1 through 9 are in one way or another.

What sticks out like a sore thumb is the last remaining
at large, 7 of 8 are accounted for,

the final at large among Drexel, Delaware, Richmond, Syracuse, Lehigh. I assume St. Joe’s is at 48% because
they are odds on favorite to win the NEC.

Who gets that one remaining at large, who gets in ?

I don’t understand how Rutgers is at #3 in these calculations with RPI of 12, QW of 9, and SOS of 41. All the teams from 4 to 10 have better numbers. What’s the secret sauce?

Edit: I guess this is just probability of getting into tournament, not an estimation of seeding. Rutgers is at 14 in the Laxpower rankings. Unless they win the Big 10, I think a seed is unlikely.

[10stone5]

That’s the benefit of laf’s calculations,

you can go right down the line of probabilities
and get a rapid view of who’s in, who’s out.

So 1 through 9 are in one way or another.

What sticks out like a sore thumb is the last remaining
at large, 7 of 8 are accounted for,

the final at large among Drexel, Delaware, Richmond, Syracuse, Lehigh. I assume St. Joe’s is at 48% because
they are odds on favorite to win the NEC.

Who gets that one remaining at large, who gets in ?

I don’t understand how Rutgers is at #3 in these calculations with RPI of 12, QW of 9, and SOS of 41. All the teams from 4 to 10 have better numbers. What’s the secret sauce?

Edit: I guess this is just probability of getting into tournament, not an estimation of seeding. Rutgers is at 14 in the Laxpower rankings. Unless they win the Big 10, I think a seed is unlikely.

Yes, that is odd, once you get to the 100% probability.

Its almost definitely not a rank ordering within the
100% grouping.

[AreaLax]

Another team done in by Covid-19.
Quinnipiac twitter today

We have withdrawn from the remainder of the 2021 spring season – including the 2021 MAAC Tournament – due to COVID-19 protocols within the program.

[Farfromgeneva]

IL is highly weighting coaches poll. That’s the only justification for seeding Rutgers over Georgetown

Rutgers at 6 in coaches poll is an overestimation of Penn State, JHU, and Ohio Stare based on pre-season expectations. Big East top 3 (Gtown, Denver, Villanova) are stronger on average this year than Maryland, Rutgers, OSU.

That’s debateable as I see MD ahead of everyone else and not sure if Nova is better than OSU/PSU. But I would see GTown and Denver as having earned a higher seed subject to then winning out except the loser in the BigEaat finals. Each will have a better win than Rutgers and that should be important.

[rolldodge]

Laxpower has Gtown 4, Denver 6, Maryland 8, Villanova 12. No other big 10 team in the top 25.

My own personal ranking of these teams would be Maryland, Gtown, Denver, Rutgers, Villanova, OSU

[Farfromgeneva]

Should’ve included that in the statement on the top 3beunf better on average. To me MD is basically 1 of 3 then a gap with UVA/ND, then GTown/Denver/Lehigh/Cuse/Rutger/Army in some ordering. Don’t see many that view Nova as #12 and while I think OSH is overrated and now guaranteed a losing season that there probably isn’t a meaningful gap between Nova and OSU/PSU.

But when talking about the gap, you wouldn’t just use some rank average which assumes equidistance between each ranking so would be a flawed approach. to say by LP rating that’s true is fine but the prior comment suggested that’s definitive and I don’t think that’s true any year but especially this one.

This is no knock on GTown or Denver and more a reflection of my view that all these teams are behind MD.

[jrn19]

Laxpower has Gtown 4, Denver 6, Maryland 8, Villanova 12. No other big 10 team in the top 25.

My own personal ranking of these teams would be Maryland, Gtown, Denver, Rutgers, Villanova, OSU

I think that’s probably fair but as FFG was mentioning; if you break it into tiers it’s

Maryland

GTown
Denver
Rutgers

Villanova
OSU

So you have Maryland in tier 1, two Big East and 1 B1G in a 2nd tier, and then one a piece in a 3rd

[HGK25]

As a higher seed, I wouldn’t be thrilled about facing any of these teams right now in conference or NCAA tournament - Drexel, Navy, Nova , Delaware.

[DU-fan]

Another update from Mark Hart

Mark Hart
@fieldystick
Seventh draft bracketology. Notes: 1) Duke will be the #1 seed if they beat UNC. 2) There is a bubble again, but - unlike most expected - it's not SU who is at risk. 3) There's a logjam for the last seed. All of DU/G'town/RU have an argument. Next update: May 3.
@Inside_Lacrosse

[Farfromgeneva]

When lined up the best win for Rutgers vs most around then sticks out. Seems like that’s the difference.

[Wheels]

When lined up the best win for Rutgers vs most around then sticks out. Seems like that’s the difference.

Even listing the RPI and media polls just confuses things. The selection committee isn't using the media poll, and they've already said that the RPI is dysfunctional this year because of the conference-only B1G schedule (at least some of the Ivies now playing does affect the RPI).

Ironically, one of the things hurting the B1G in the RPI is that no one beat Maryland. If RU and MD had split their games, both would have benefitted in the RPI from the RPI. Shows how metric isn't statistically robust at all this year...and is really a blunt force instrument as a metric in most years anyway.

[wgdsr]

When lined up the best win for Rutgers vs most around then sticks out. Seems like that’s the difference.

Even listing the RPI and media polls just confuses things. The selection committee isn't using the media poll, and they've already said that the RPI is dysfunctional this year because of the conference-only B1G schedule (at least some of the Ivies now playing does affect the RPI).

Ironically, one of the things hurting the B1G in the RPI is that no one beat Maryland. If RU and MD had split their games, both would have benefitted in the RPI from the RPI. Shows how metric isn't statistically robust at all this year...and is really a blunt force instrument as a metric in most years anyway.

could you explain why you believe this is the case? my understanding... had they split, umd's numbers go down and rutgers' up.

and everyone else's in the b1g don't budge.