JUST the Stolen Documents/Mar-A-Lago/"Judge" Cannon Trial

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Kismet
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by Kismet »

Looks like US intel is now claiming US satellite images show the plane was shot down by a missile originating in Iran. Speculation is it is the same type of missile that brought down the Ukrainian plane over Russia/Ukraine a couple years ago.

Looks like it was an Iranian f**k up.
Think it was a MH17, a Malaysian 777 (carrying many Dutch citizens) shot down by Russian surface-to air missile battery from occupied Ukrainian territory. They had film of the truck launcher heading back across the border into Russia minus one missile.

Both CBS, WSJ and Newsweek all reporting this now

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/ir ... 020-01-09/

Also Reuters showing photos of pieces of fuselage with pitting/marks indicating possible explosion outside the aircraft (as would occur with a missile) had already attracted the attention of some investigators. Similar marks were visible on wreckage of MH17.

The thinking is that the plane was mistakenly targeted in some fashion for some reason and that the Iranians did not intend to take down a civilian aircraft.

We may never know unless the Iranians open up the investigation outside of their country

Another short straw drawn by the Ukrainians. Very tough for them. 63 Canadian citizens also on the plane.
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old salt
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by old salt »

That would be an incredibly stupid mistake (much more so than the USS Vincennes). There would have been a radar track with an assigned commercial flight transponder code, along the regular departure corridor for Terhan Intl Airport. It may have been the first flight of the day, but air defense radar operators should be used to seeing commercial aircraft tracks of that nature, in that location, on a daily basis. It was not a bunch of anxious sailors under attack in the Persian Gulf. There should have been no "fog of war" in that situation.

82 Iranians on that flight + 75 crushed to death at Soleimani's funeral.
Iran's response is pretty tough on their own population.
...not that it matters to the Mullahs or IRGC
Last edited by old salt on Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Kismet
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Re: The Politics of National Security

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Yes, quite right. Apparently, US Intelligence has the tracks and the launch points on their system likely part of air defense monitoring to defend US positions inside of Iraq. Assume they will be releasing it soon and may be trying to let the Iranians know that in case they don't plan on owning up, we will out them publicly. As we should.
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Re: The Politics of National Security

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old salt wrote: Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:05 pm That would be an incredibly stupid mistake (much more so than the USS Vincennes). There would have been a radar track with an assigned commercial flight transponder code, along the regular departure corridor for Terhan Intl Airport. It may have been the first flight of the day, but air defense radar operators should be used to seeing commercial aircraft tracks of that nature, in that location, on a daily basis. It was not a bunch of anxious sailors under attack in the Persian Gulf. There should have been no "fog of war" in that situation.

82 Iranians on that flight + 75 crushed to death at Soleimani's funeral.
Iran's response is pretty tough on their own population.
...not that it matters to the Mullahs or IRGC
Canadian Television reporting that the US has shared the images suggesting an Iranian missile brought down the jet. Jesus H.

https://twitter.com/CBCAlerts/status/12 ... 5222896640
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old salt
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Re: The Politics of National Security

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Also incredibly irresponsible for Iran to open their airports & airspace when they're launching missiles & possibly initiating a war in the air.
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by seacoaster »

old salt wrote: Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:16 pm Also incredibly irresponsible for Iran to open their airports & airspace when they're launching missiles & possibly initiating a war in the air.
Concur; really a tragic and awful blunder if these reports are true.
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Kismet
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Re: The Politics of National Security

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old salt wrote: Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:16 pm Also incredibly irresponsible for Iran to open their airports & airspace when they're launching missiles & possibly initiating a war in the air.
Yep. Sadly more than a few dim bulbs across the spectrum in charge of important stuff nowadays. I still worry that they are not going to open up and admit it.

Might also explain how a flight crew of 3 with over 33,000 hours of flight time never called a mayday as the plane likely broke up near the time of impact or proximate detonation.
Last edited by Kismet on Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Politics of National Security

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seacoaster wrote: Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:13 pm

Canadian Television reporting that the US has shared the images suggesting an Iranian missile brought down the jet. Jesus H.

https://twitter.com/CBCAlerts/status/12 ... 5222896640
Sigh. Dammit.
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by seacoaster »

Assume that this is the place to put this, a redux on Senator Lee's tirade yesterday:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... w-details/

"Lee, echoing the complaints of many Democrats, blasted the briefing on the intelligence behind the assassination as the “worst” he’d ever seen. He also fumed that officials refused to acknowledge any “hypothetical” situations in which they would come to Congress for authorization for future military hostilities against Iran.

Now, in the interview with NPR’s Rachel Martin, Lee has gone into more alarming detail. Lee reiterated that officials “were unable or unwilling to identify any point” at which they’d come to Congress for authorization for the use of military force. Then this exchange happened:

MARTIN: What kind of hypotheticals were you putting to them in hopes of understanding when the administration sees a need for Congressional authority?
LEE: As I recall, one of my colleagues asked a hypothetical involving the Supreme Leader of Iran: If at that point, the United States government decided that it wanted to undertake a strike against him personally, recognizing that he would be a threat to the United States, would that require authorization for the use of military force?

The fact that there was nothing but a refusal to answer that question was perhaps the most deeply upsetting thing to me in that meeting.
Obviously, this was an extreme hypothetical. But the point of it was to discern the contours of the administration’s sense of its own obligation to come to Congress for approval of future hostilities. And it succeeded in doing just that, demonstrating that they recognize no such obligation.

“It would be hard to understand assassinating a foreign head of state as anything other than an act of war,” Josh Chafetz, a Cornell law professor and the author of a book on Congress’ hidden powers, told me. “It’s appalling that executive-branch officials would imply, even in responding to a hypothetical question, that they do not need congressional authorization to do it.”

“If the administration won’t concede that this is a clear example of when they would have to go to Congress, it’s hard to imagine what would be,” Stephen Vladeck, a law professor at the University of Texas at Austin, added. “This underscores just how completely irrelevant they view Congress to be in the war powers conversation.”

In the NPR interview, Lee also disclosed that at one point in the briefing, an official “discouraged us from even having a debate on the Senate floor” about whether Congress should pass new measures constraining Trump’s authority to launch future military actions without authorization.

“That might somehow embolden the Iranian regime in future attacks against the United States,” Lee said, characterizing the argument the official made.

It’s worth stressing that this is emerging as the explicit position among Trump’s loyalists and propagandists. Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) is now dismissing concerns about the need for Congress to reassert its warmaking authority as “emboldening the enemy.”

Meanwhile, Trump just rage-tweeted that he wants “all House Republicans” to “vote against Crazy Nancy Pelosi’s War Powers Resolution.”

That’s a reference to a measure that the House speaker is putting to a House vote Thursday that would require Trump to cease any military hostilities against Iran 30 days after enactment, if he hasn’t received congressional authorization for it. The House will all but certainly pass this, and there are other tougher measures on tap.

But we should be under no illusions about what’s happening here.

It’s great that Lee is aggressively calling out the administration’s willingness to abuse its war power. Lee is apparently going to vote for a measure in the Senate that is a companion to the House bill.

But despite this, the GOP-controlled Senate is still likely to block such efforts. Last spring, a similar measure failed to get the 60 votes needed for passage, with all but four GOP senators voting against it. Virtually all GOP senators will likely vote against the new one, too.

By the way, it requires restating: Former president Barack Obama abused the war power as well, and far too many congressional Democrats went along with it. Congress has been abdicating its war-declaring authority for decades.

Our system is now functionally that one person makes these extraordinarily consequential decisions. Plainly, the person in question is not fit to do so.

Indeed, in this case, you’d think the starkness of the situation would get Congress — or, more precisely, congressional Republicans, since virtually all Democrats will do the right thing this time — to reassert its authority.

Trump has threatened war crimes, has boasted about the size of his missiles and just ordered an assassination of a senior military leader in a sovereign country without alerting Congress or seeking its approval, based on intelligence that is dubious at best and on rationales that have fallen apart.

But Trump’s tweet calling on “all House Republicans” to vote against the new war powers measure now means that being loyal to Trump is synonymous with giving him unconstrained warmaking authority, despite all the madness we’ve seen. And so it shall be."

Hmmm, do you smell the Reichstag burning?
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old salt
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by old salt »

Meanwhile -- Trump is saying NATO should take the lead in the ME & in dealing with ISIS.
The EUros response should be interesting.
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by jhu72 »

Kismet wrote: Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:55 pm
Looks like US intel is now claiming US satellite images show the plane was shot down by a missile originating in Iran. Speculation is it is the same type of missile that brought down the Ukrainian plane over Russia/Ukraine a couple years ago.

Looks like it was an Iranian f**k up.
Think it was a MH17, a Malaysian 777 (carrying many Dutch citizens) shot down by Russian surface-to air missile battery from occupied Ukrainian territory. They had film of the truck launcher heading back across the border into Russia minus one missile.

Both CBS, WSJ and Newsweek all reporting this now

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/ir ... 020-01-09/

Also Reuters showing photos of pieces of fuselage with pitting/marks indicating possible explosion outside the aircraft (as would occur with a missile) had already attracted the attention of some investigators. Similar marks were visible on wreckage of MH17.

The thinking is that the plane was mistakenly targeted in some fashion for some reason and that the Iranians did not intend to take down a civilian aircraft.

We may never know unless the Iranians open up the investigation outside of their country

Another short straw drawn by the Ukrainians. Very tough for them. 63 Canadian citizens also on the plane.
I suspect that the press is playing games with the passenger count. From what I read two days ago, the Canadian citizens, most of them are dual citizenship - also Iranian citizens. This is not an incident where it mostly effects westerners. The Iranian population took the biggest hit I believe. This is going to be a bitter pill for the Iranian population to swallow. A real problem for the government.

Amazing how the Trumpnista grab on to this and have no trouble believing US intelligence. Suddenly not the deep state. :lol:
Last edited by jhu72 on Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by DocBarrister »

old salt wrote: Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:40 pm Meanwhile -- Trump is saying NATO should take the lead in the ME & in dealing with ISIS.
The EUros response should be interesting.
Which makes Trump’s disparagement of both NATO and the EU look even more stupid.

DocBarrister :roll:
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by DocBarrister »

jhu72 wrote: Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:57 pm
Kismet wrote: Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:55 pm
Looks like US intel is now claiming US satellite images show the plane was shot down by a missile originating in Iran. Speculation is it is the same type of missile that brought down the Ukrainian plane over Russia/Ukraine a couple years ago.

Looks like it was an Iranian f**k up.
Think it was a MH17, a Malaysian 777 (carrying many Dutch citizens) shot down by Russian surface-to air missile battery from occupied Ukrainian territory. They had film of the truck launcher heading back across the border into Russia minus one missile.

Both CBS, WSJ and Newsweek all reporting this now

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/ir ... 020-01-09/

Also Reuters showing photos of pieces of fuselage with pitting/marks indicating possible explosion outside the aircraft (as would occur with a missile) had already attracted the attention of some investigators. Similar marks were visible on wreckage of MH17.

The thinking is that the plane was mistakenly targeted in some fashion for some reason and that the Iranians did not intend to take down a civilian aircraft.

We may never know unless the Iranians open up the investigation outside of their country

Another short straw drawn by the Ukrainians. Very tough for them. 63 Canadian citizens also on the plane.
I suspect that the press is playing games with the passenger count. From what I read two days ago, the Canadian citizens, most of them are dual citizenship - also Iranian citizens. This is not an incident where it mostly effects westerners. The Iranian population took the biggest hit I believe. This is going to be a bitter pill for the Iranian population too swallow. A real problem for the government.

Amazing how the Trumpnista grab on to this and have no trouble believing US intelligence. Suddenly not the deep state. :lol:
If Iran did inadvertently shoot down this plane, then count the immense tragedy of their needless deaths among the unintended consequences of Donald Trump’s reckless and moronic decision to kill Solamanei.

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old salt
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by old salt »

jhu72 wrote: Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:57 pm
Kismet wrote: Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:55 pm
Looks like US intel is now claiming US satellite images show the plane was shot down by a missile originating in Iran. Speculation is it is the same type of missile that brought down the Ukrainian plane over Russia/Ukraine a couple years ago.

Looks like it was an Iranian f**k up.
Think it was a MH17, a Malaysian 777 (carrying many Dutch citizens) shot down by Russian surface-to air missile battery from occupied Ukrainian territory. They had film of the truck launcher heading back across the border into Russia minus one missile.

Both CBS, WSJ and Newsweek all reporting this now

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/ir ... 020-01-09/

Also Reuters showing photos of pieces of fuselage with pitting/marks indicating possible explosion outside the aircraft (as would occur with a missile) had already attracted the attention of some investigators. Similar marks were visible on wreckage of MH17.

The thinking is that the plane was mistakenly targeted in some fashion for some reason and that the Iranians did not intend to take down a civilian aircraft.

We may never know unless the Iranians open up the investigation outside of their country

Another short straw drawn by the Ukrainians. Very tough for them. 63 Canadian citizens also on the plane.
I suspect that the press is playing games with the passenger count. From what I read two days ago, the Canadian citizens, most of them are dual citizenship - also Iranian citizens. This is not an incident where it mostly effects westerners. The Iranian population took the biggest hit I believe. This is going to be a bitter pill for the Iranian population to swallow. A real problem for the government.

Amazing how the Trumpnista grab on to this and have no trouble believing US intelligence. Suddenly not the deep state. :lol:
Sat imagery is more convincing that Comey, McCabe, Strzok & Page hanging around the office & brainstorming.

We need to exploit this to increase international pressure on Iran to denuc.
If they can't be trusted with rudimentary SAM's, imagine if they had the bomb.
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by jhu72 »

old salt wrote: Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:39 pm
jhu72 wrote: Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:57 pm
Kismet wrote: Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:55 pm
Looks like US intel is now claiming US satellite images show the plane was shot down by a missile originating in Iran. Speculation is it is the same type of missile that brought down the Ukrainian plane over Russia/Ukraine a couple years ago.

Looks like it was an Iranian f**k up.
Think it was a MH17, a Malaysian 777 (carrying many Dutch citizens) shot down by Russian surface-to air missile battery from occupied Ukrainian territory. They had film of the truck launcher heading back across the border into Russia minus one missile.

Both CBS, WSJ and Newsweek all reporting this now

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/ir ... 020-01-09/

Also Reuters showing photos of pieces of fuselage with pitting/marks indicating possible explosion outside the aircraft (as would occur with a missile) had already attracted the attention of some investigators. Similar marks were visible on wreckage of MH17.

The thinking is that the plane was mistakenly targeted in some fashion for some reason and that the Iranians did not intend to take down a civilian aircraft.

We may never know unless the Iranians open up the investigation outside of their country

Another short straw drawn by the Ukrainians. Very tough for them. 63 Canadian citizens also on the plane.
I suspect that the press is playing games with the passenger count. From what I read two days ago, the Canadian citizens, most of them are dual citizenship - also Iranian citizens. This is not an incident where it mostly effects westerners. The Iranian population took the biggest hit I believe. This is going to be a bitter pill for the Iranian population to swallow. A real problem for the government.

Amazing how the Trumpnista grab on to this and have no trouble believing US intelligence. Suddenly not the deep state. :lol:
Sat imagery is more convincing that Comey, McCabe, Strzok & Page hanging around the office & brainstorming.

We need to exploit this to increase international pressure on Iran to denuc.
If they can't be trusted with rudimentary SAM's, imagine if they had the bomb.
Right. Sounds like you got another boner. ;)
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jhu72
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by jhu72 »

Finally hearing something from Tulsi Gabbard. She is also claiming the administration is lying as to what the circumstances were that caused them to assassinate the general. If she plays this right, she could get a big bump in the polls out of this.
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by njbill »

a fan wrote: Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:42 am I'd vote for Trump before I'd vote for Haley. I've read enough of her stupidity now. Hard pass.
Yikes! Say it ain't so, a fan. I'm no fan of Haley's and becoming less so by the minute, but I would still vote for her over Trump. Thankfully, that won't be my choice.

Now that her Sec. of State gambit has flamed out, she is left with trying to unseat Mikey. Not sure she can pull that off. She is proving she has horrible political instincts. While arguably from the Republican perspective, it looked like she might have been able to add something to the ticket, now it seems she might be a detriment. Not at the Palin level, however. Yet.
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by a fan »

njbill wrote: Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:56 pm
Yikes! Say it ain't so, a fan. I'm no fan of Haley's and becoming less so by the minute, but I would still vote for her over Trump. Thankfully, that won't be my choice.
I have zero interest in getting someone in the White House who is more competent than Trump, yet thinks we need to go deeper into the ME in order to "fix" whatever problem she seems to think we have in the region.
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by njbill »

old salt wrote: Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:39 pm We need to exploit this to increase international pressure on Iran to denuc.
If they can't be trusted with rudimentary SAM's, imagine if they had the bomb.
Yes, we need to negotiate an agreement with Iran that will keep them from getting nuclear weapons. Oh, wait . . . .
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by RedFromMI »

jhu72 wrote: Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:57 pm
Kismet wrote: Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:55 pm
Looks like US intel is now claiming US satellite images show the plane was shot down by a missile originating in Iran. Speculation is it is the same type of missile that brought down the Ukrainian plane over Russia/Ukraine a couple years ago.

Looks like it was an Iranian f**k up.
Think it was a MH17, a Malaysian 777 (carrying many Dutch citizens) shot down by Russian surface-to air missile battery from occupied Ukrainian territory. They had film of the truck launcher heading back across the border into Russia minus one missile.

Both CBS, WSJ and Newsweek all reporting this now

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/ir ... 020-01-09/

Also Reuters showing photos of pieces of fuselage with pitting/marks indicating possible explosion outside the aircraft (as would occur with a missile) had already attracted the attention of some investigators. Similar marks were visible on wreckage of MH17.

The thinking is that the plane was mistakenly targeted in some fashion for some reason and that the Iranians did not intend to take down a civilian aircraft.

We may never know unless the Iranians open up the investigation outside of their country

Another short straw drawn by the Ukrainians. Very tough for them. 63 Canadian citizens also on the plane.
I suspect that the press is playing games with the passenger count. From what I read two days ago, the Canadian citizens, most of them are dual citizenship - also Iranian citizens. This is not an incident where it mostly effects westerners. The Iranian population took the biggest hit I believe. This is going to be a bitter pill for the Iranian population to swallow. A real problem for the government.

Amazing how the Trumpnista grab on to this and have no trouble believing US intelligence. Suddenly not the deep state. :lol:
NY Times has posted a video (from well before the crash) that appears to show the airliner being hit by the missile, then it apparently turned around and headed back toward the airport before exploding...

https://t.co/yAuu7vWdxf
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