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jhu72
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by jhu72 »

tech37 wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 1:24 pm
jhu72 wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 1:22 pm
a fan wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 1:09 pm
old salt wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:53 pm .:roll:. ...pinpoint accuracy is not necessary when using nucs.
:lol: No, but you sure as *hit need to know the missile can make it out of your borders in one piece. Would you shoot off a nuke after you saw 2 of 15 failed?
old salt wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:41 am We don't know if Iran employed their newest most accurate BM's or just old, updated SCUDs & derivatives.
No. But as tech said, and I'd imagine you'd agree....the goal of Iran was to NOT inflict casualties. Given that goal, wouldn't you use accurate weapons? I sure would.

Iran just showed you their real world capabilities. What are you using? Speculation.

I'm saying: consider what you saw. Consider it.
Exactly. But I also would not use technology that was necessarily my most accurate. Use what is necessary to do the job. Modern ballistic missiles are good enough.
Wow 72...see above...we actually agree on something :D

That must make you wrong.
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old salt
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by old salt »

tech37 wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 1:53 pm BTW, if it turns out they shot down the 737, that's a real bad day for the Mullahs.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/uk ... story.html

...suddenly plummeted into a field early Wednesday without a mayday from the cockpit, killing all aboard and leaving investigators hoping that recovered flight data can offer clues on the cause.

In the aftermath of the crash — whose passengers and crew included Iranians, Canadians and Europeans — Ukraine banned all flights from Iranian airspace. A similar move was already taken by several other countries amid rising tensions between Iran and U.S. forces in the region.

Meanwhile, the probe into the crash was underway with Iran citing a possible aircraft malfunction and Ukraine apparently leaving open other paths of inquiry. At least one aviation expert said it appeared the plane was "not intact" before it hit the ground.

The Ukraine International Airlines flight, bound for the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, went down just before dawn after departing from Imam Khomeini International Airport, south of Tehran. The plane was approaching 8,000 feet when it abruptly lost contact with ground control, officials said.

About four hours earlier, Iranian forces launched more than a dozen ballistic missiles into Iraq, targeting an Iraqi air base with U.S. personnel in response to an American airstrike last week that killed the commander of Iran's elite Quds Force, Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani.

American passenger airliners and others have avoided flying over Iran because of the risk that they could be mistaken for military aircraft. Iranian authorities said "technical" problems were likely behind the crash of the Ukrainian Boeing 737-800.

Ukraine's Embassy in Tehran initially concurred, issuing a statement ruling out terrorism and suggesting likely engine failure. It later took down the statement without explanation, raising questions about whether different scenarios — including an "external" cause such as a missile — were being explored as potential reasons for the crash.

The Ukrainian Embassy said a commission was investigating the crash and that "any statements about the causes of the accident before the decision of the commission are not official."

A video circulated on Twitter that purported to be of the crash and showed the plane as a bright light, possibly on fire, descending against a dark sky, followed by a burst of flames.

John Cox, a former pilot and an airline safety consultant, said the plane’s flight profile was normal and “then the data just stops.”
“That is something the investigators are going to look at,” he added.
The video on social media, purportedly showing the crash, appeared to show “a large amount of fire” that could be caused by “an uncontrolled engine failure,” Cox said.
tech37
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by tech37 »

jhu72 wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:06 pm
tech37 wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 1:24 pm
jhu72 wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 1:22 pm
a fan wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 1:09 pm
old salt wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:53 pm .:roll:. ...pinpoint accuracy is not necessary when using nucs.
:lol: No, but you sure as *hit need to know the missile can make it out of your borders in one piece. Would you shoot off a nuke after you saw 2 of 15 failed?
old salt wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:41 am We don't know if Iran employed their newest most accurate BM's or just old, updated SCUDs & derivatives.
No. But as tech said, and I'd imagine you'd agree....the goal of Iran was to NOT inflict casualties. Given that goal, wouldn't you use accurate weapons? I sure would.

Iran just showed you their real world capabilities. What are you using? Speculation.

I'm saying: consider what you saw. Consider it.
Exactly. But I also would not use technology that was necessarily my most accurate. Use what is necessary to do the job. Modern ballistic missiles are good enough.
Wow 72...see above...we actually agree on something :D

That must make you wrong.
:D
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old salt
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by old salt »

a fan wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 1:32 pm
tech37 wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 1:20 pm
a fan wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:41 pm No. I agree they weren't trying to kill Americans, tech.

I'm saying: look at the logic that follows. If you're Iran, and you want to send missiles that hit a base, yet not kill Americans and risking Trump's disproportionate retaliation.....you're going to send your most accurate weapons, right?

And what happened? Old salt is telling us that 4 of 15 of them failed in flight.

My point/conclusion is: they have a long way to go in their ballistic development, and maybe they didn't work on it so hard over the last five years.

In other words, it's sounding like our intel was wrong.
Oh I got all of that. I think they wanted to save their more accurate weapons for future strikes. In their minds, the BMs were accurate enough not to strike where the Americans were but not as accurate (obviously) as their cruise missiles, so lets save those.
Well, that's one conclusion, I guess.
Mr Instant Gratification can't grasp that the Iranians may still be trying to develop an ICBM capable of reliably delivering a nuc.
Until they develop one & a nuc (or purchase one or both, from NK) we should not hassle them when they attack us & our allies.
jhu72
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by jhu72 »

Let's see, the Iranians continued to live to the "letter of the agreement" (nuke deal) for a year after breached by the US after living to it for ~4 years, only breaching themselves with notification (specific parts) after the US squeezing them economically for a year. The Iranians then begin pushing back and then retaliate against the US after the US commits a clear act of war, and that retaliation is clearly designed not to take lives, neither American nor Iraqi. This is the profile of someone who wants to destroy the US and is untrustworthy. Right.

This looks like what it is to the rest of the world, US bullying. Unless the US changes course, this will not end well.

Anyone who thinks Trump is going to negotiate a replacement deal for the JCOPA IS OUT OF THEIR MIND!! Iran will not deal with Trump!
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a fan
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by a fan »

old salt wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:16 pm Mr Instant Gratification can't grasp that the Iranians may still be trying to develop an ICBM capable of reliably delivering a nuc.
Until they develop one & a nuc (or purchase one or both, from NK) we should not hassle them when they attack us & our allies.
That's not what I"m saying. Geez dude.

Notice the word "may". You don't know where they are on their ballistic program. Yet you keep pretending that you do....and mock anyone who dares tell you that you're guessing, and nothing more.

Iranian missiles fail in the real world, and you ignore that fact completely?

All you want to do is show us that Obama's JCPOA failed, at all costs. It's transparently ridiculous what you're doing.
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old salt
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by old salt »

a fan wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:41 pm
old salt wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:16 pm Mr Instant Gratification can't grasp that the Iranians may still be trying to develop an ICBM capable of reliably delivering a nuc.
Until they develop one & a nuc (or purchase one or both, from NK) we should not hassle them when they attack us & our allies.
That's not what I"m saying. Geez dude.

Notice the word "may". You don't know where they are on their ballistic program. Yet you keep pretending that you do....and mock anyone who dares tell you that you're guessing, and nothing more.

Iranian missiles fail in the real world, and you ignore that fact completely?

All you want to do is show us that Obama's JCPOA failed, at all costs. It's transparently ridiculous what you're doing.
Iran can now threaten hitting Israel & SE Europe with ballistic missiles.
That's why we've homeported 4 AEGIS guided missile cruisers in Spain & we've built AEGIS ashore facilities in NATO SE Europe.
Your tax dollars at work.
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old salt
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by old salt »

MSMBC's Katie Tur observed that Trump, in his speech, was flanked by stern white miltary men.

.:lol:. ...now that the war is over, back to your regularly scheduled (subliminal) programming.
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by jhu72 »

Gotta love Faux News - their "news" report is undercounting the number of ballistic missiles fired and the number of "hangers" hit. (Only one) :lol:

Iranians sure are weak, we can beat them without even getting a bloody nose. USA USA USA
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seacoaster
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by seacoaster »

To the extent anyone cares about, you know, legality and stuff:

https://www.justsecurity.org/67970/lawf ... ional-law/

"Gen. Hamid Sarkheili of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard told a crowd of Soleimani mourners on Monday that, “[w]e are ready to take a fierce revenge against America…American troops in the Persian Gulf and in Iraq and Syria are within our reach.” And as if to punctuate their motivation, the Iranian missile attack was accompanied by this familiar refrain of “fierce revenge.”

Iran may think it is justified in what it calls revenge, but its actions and rhetoric are fundamentally inconsistent with international law, ironically the very law Iran invoked to condemn the U.S. attack. Revenge (often called retaliation) is not a lawful basis for a State’s use of armed force. Instead, international law permits a State to use force against another State (or in the view of many, including the United States, non-state organized armed groups) only when necessary to defend against an imminent, actual, or ongoing unlawful armed attack, or pursuant to a United Nations Security Council resolution. Neither of these bases justify revenge, retaliation, or reprisal; and neither seemed to justify Iran’s threats or attack. Indeed, despite the rhetoric Iran appears to actually understand this, which likely explains why following the missile attack Iran’s Foreign Minister posted on Twitter that the country “took & concluded proportionate measures in self-defense” (contradicting nearly a week of threats of revenge).

Invoking the rhetoric of self-defense does not ipso facto justify a State’s use of military force absent a reasonable basis to conclude the State faced one of the triggering justifications for such necessary self-help action. This applies equally to the United States and Iran, both of which have now launched attacks that could easily be viewed as acts of retribution. Accordingly, if Iran did what it actually promised – launch a military attack to retaliate for the U.S. Soleimani strike and not based on an imminent threat of armed attack by the U.S. — Iran has, paradoxically, engaged in the same illegality it has been condemning.

Self-defense on the international level, like self-defense in any other context, is a legal justification that requires the use of force to be absolutely necessary to protect against an imminent threat of unlawful violence. If that act of violence is completed, this self-help justification expires, unless the victim reasonably perceives an ongoing threat. This “timeliness” aspect of self-defense necessity functions to prohibit a victim of unlawful violence from transforming a genuine self-protection justification into a justification to take revenge.

That is, a U.S attack purely in retribution for earlier Iranian attacks is squarely prohibited by international law, specifically the United Nations Charter. Like an act of self-defense in the individual context, in which responses to and retribution for past violent acts is ceded to the criminal justice system, international law cedes legal authority for enforcement of international law – including violent punishment of aggressors – to the U.N. Security Council. Though greatly embryonic compared to domestic law enforcement systems, and often hobbled by the impact of the veto power vested in the five permanent members of the Security Council (including the United States), this international legal structure with all its limits and flaws remains the primary (if not exclusive) means by which a State responsible for a completed act of unlawful aggression is subjected to sanction."

....

"This is why we believe it is so essential that the U.S. administration articulate to the American people and the broader international community a compelling case that it made a reasonable and credible assessment that its Soleimani attack was necessary to prevent another unlawful attack on U.S. military personnel or U.S. facilities – and that such projected attack was imminent, leaving no reasonable time for non-forceful measures to obviate such threat.

It is also why it is per se illegal for Iran to threaten the use of military force to take revenge, even if they pretend to demonstrate respect for international law by emphasizing they will only attack U.S. military targets in a “proportional” way. And it is why Iran and the United States should be forthcoming with the information that led to their respective asserted determinations that their attacks were necessary to prevent subsequent imminent uses of force by their antagonist.

In contrast to Iran’s near-constant refrain of revenge as its basis for a threatened strike – despite claiming that Tuesday’s attack was lawful self-defense – on the other side of the world the Trump Administration has been consistently claiming its strike last week was indeed internationally lawful as an exercise of the inherent right of self-defense. The U.S. immediately invoked the inherent right of self-defense as the principal U.S. legal authority to justify its drone strike in Iraq targeting General Soleimani. The United States attacked the general because, per the State Department, he was planning “imminent attacks against American personnel and facilities in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and beyond.” Secretary of State Pompeo explained that Americans “are safer in the region” after the U.S. drone strike, because Soleimani’s anticipated actions involved an “imminent attack” that “would have put hundreds of lives at risk.” The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Milley, affirmed that the U.S. had “the intelligence I saw– that was compelling, it was imminent, and it was very, very clear in scale, scope..” And President Trump claimed the morning after the strike that, “[w]e took action last night to stop a war, we did not take action to start a war,” and he too called the Soleimani’s threat of an attack “imminent.”

The stakes involved in the U.S. military strike and the escalation we now know it generated implicate a wide array of diplomatic, political, and strategic considerations. It is therefore logical and appropriate to scrutinize the U.S. claim of self-defense justification, something that began almost as soon as the attack was executed. And the Iranian missile strike of Tuesday evening should be subjected to the same scrutiny."
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old salt
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by old salt »

jhu72 wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:13 pm Gotta love Faux News - their "news" report is undercounting the number of ballistic missiles fired and the number of "hangers" hit. (Only one) :lol:

Iranians sure are weak, we can beat them without even getting a bloody nose. USA USA USA
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump- ... ll-is-well

...Iran fired as many as 15 ballistic missiles into Iraq. Ten missiles hit the Ain al-Asad Air Base, which houses U.S. troops, one missile hit a U.S. military base in Erbil, and four missiles failed to hit their targets, according to a U.S. military spokesman for Central Command, responsible for American forces in the Middle East.

The late Tuesday attacks unfolded in two waves, about an hour apart.
While no U.S. or other NATO casualties were reported, the bases were potentially vulnerable.

U.S. defense officials told Fox News the U.S. military did not attempt to shoot down the ballistic missiles fired from Iran because there were no American military assets in place to intercept them. The Patriot and Avenger anti-missile defense systems are deployed to other locations in the Middle East, but not to the two Iraqi bases targeted by Iran. Officials say the American assets are in high demand and short supply around the world.

“For the past few years, our focus was defeating ISIS and keeping a light footprint in Iraq. We did not need air defense systems against ISIS,” one official said, explaining why there were no U.S. missile defense systems in place at the Iraqi bases.
jhu72
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by jhu72 »

Seacoaster,

… lawlessness begets lawlessness

We lost the moral high ground long ago in this conflict. Just like the folks we are fighting, we slither in the mud.
Last edited by jhu72 on Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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jhu72
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by jhu72 »

old salt wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:35 pm
jhu72 wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:13 pm Gotta love Faux News - their "news" report is undercounting the number of ballistic missiles fired and the number of "hangers" hit. (Only one) :lol:

Iranians sure are weak, we can beat them without even getting a bloody nose. USA USA USA
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump- ... ll-is-well

...Iran fired as many as 15 ballistic missiles into Iraq. Ten missiles hit the Ain al-Asad Air Base, which houses U.S. troops, one missile hit a U.S. military base in Erbil, and four missiles failed to hit their targets, according to a U.S. military spokesman for Central Command, responsible for American forces in the Middle East.

The late Tuesday attacks unfolded in two waves, about an hour apart.
While no U.S. or other NATO casualties were reported, the bases were potentially vulnerable.

U.S. defense officials told Fox News the U.S. military did not attempt to shoot down the ballistic missiles fired from Iran because there were no American military assets in place to intercept them. The Patriot and Avenger anti-missile defense systems are deployed to other locations in the Middle East, but not to the two Iraqi bases targeted by Iran. Officials say the American assets are in high demand and short supply around the world.

“For the past few years, our focus was defeating ISIS and keeping a light footprint in Iraq. We did not need air defense systems against ISIS,” one official said, explaining why there were no U.S. missile defense systems in place at the Iraqi bases.
Who reads Fox News? -- "only one" hanger hit according to Faux News lady reporter on the 3 PM news program.
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jhu72
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by jhu72 »

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old salt
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by old salt »

jhu72 wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:41 pm
old salt wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:35 pm
jhu72 wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:13 pm Gotta love Faux News - their "news" report is undercounting the number of ballistic missiles fired and the number of "hangers" hit. (Only one) :lol:

Iranians sure are weak, we can beat them without even getting a bloody nose. USA USA USA
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump- ... ll-is-well

...Iran fired as many as 15 ballistic missiles into Iraq. Ten missiles hit the Ain al-Asad Air Base, which houses U.S. troops, one missile hit a U.S. military base in Erbil, and four missiles failed to hit their targets, according to a U.S. military spokesman for Central Command, responsible for American forces in the Middle East.

The late Tuesday attacks unfolded in two waves, about an hour apart.
While no U.S. or other NATO casualties were reported, the bases were potentially vulnerable.

U.S. defense officials told Fox News the U.S. military did not attempt to shoot down the ballistic missiles fired from Iran because there were no American military assets in place to intercept them. The Patriot and Avenger anti-missile defense systems are deployed to other locations in the Middle East, but not to the two Iraqi bases targeted by Iran. Officials say the American assets are in high demand and short supply around the world.

“For the past few years, our focus was defeating ISIS and keeping a light footprint in Iraq. We did not need air defense systems against ISIS,” one official said, explaining why there were no U.S. missile defense systems in place at the Iraqi bases.
Who reads Fox News? -- "only one" hanger hit according to Faux News lady reporter on the 3 PM news program.
Was she referring to the group of tent shelters in the sat photo or a real hangar ?
Did she mention number & type of acft damaged or destroyed ?
Does not look like the runways were hit.
Any status on the Burger King ?
DocBarrister
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Ayatollah Khamanei Humiliates Trump

Post by DocBarrister »

Looks like U.S. officials have acknowledged that Iran targeted their missiles to minimize damage and warned the U.S. hours in advance (through the Iraqis) that the attack was coming.

In essence, Ayatollah Khamanei told Trump that he was going to be spanked, and Trump basically bent over and took the punishment. That’s not the way a U.S. president should be conducting foreign policy. This was more than face saving for Iran ... it was a humiliation of the United States ... with Trump passively permitting a ballistic missile attack against U.S. forces.

The truth is getting uglier and uglier ....

The Iranian missile strike on American locations in Iraq on Tuesday was a calibrated event intended to cause minimal American casualties, give the Iranians a face-saving measure and provide an opportunity for both sides to step back from the brink of war, according to senior U.S. officials in Washington and the Middle East.

White House officials were bracing as early as Tuesday morning for Iran to respond to the U.S. killing last week of Qasem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force.
U.S. officials said they knew by Tuesday afternoon that Iran intended to strike at U.S. facilities in Iraq, although it was not immediately clear exactly which targets they would choose.

The early warning came from intelligence sources as well as communications from Iraq that conveyed Iran’s intentions to launch the strike, officials said.

“We knew, and the Iraqis told us, that this was coming many hours in advance,” said a senior administration official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence and diplomatic communications.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... story.html

DocBarrister :?
@DocBarrister
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old salt
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by old salt »

old salt wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 4:10 pm
jhu72 wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:41 pm
old salt wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:35 pm
jhu72 wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:13 pm Gotta love Faux News - their "news" report is undercounting the number of ballistic missiles fired and the number of "hangers" hit. (Only one) :lol:

Iranians sure are weak, we can beat them without even getting a bloody nose. USA USA USA
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump- ... ll-is-well

...Iran fired as many as 15 ballistic missiles into Iraq. Ten missiles hit the Ain al-Asad Air Base, which houses U.S. troops, one missile hit a U.S. military base in Erbil, and four missiles failed to hit their targets, according to a U.S. military spokesman for Central Command, responsible for American forces in the Middle East.

The late Tuesday attacks unfolded in two waves, about an hour apart.
While no U.S. or other NATO casualties were reported, the bases were potentially vulnerable.

U.S. defense officials told Fox News the U.S. military did not attempt to shoot down the ballistic missiles fired from Iran because there were no American military assets in place to intercept them. The Patriot and Avenger anti-missile defense systems are deployed to other locations in the Middle East, but not to the two Iraqi bases targeted by Iran. Officials say the American assets are in high demand and short supply around the world.

“For the past few years, our focus was defeating ISIS and keeping a light footprint in Iraq. We did not need air defense systems against ISIS,” one official said, explaining why there were no U.S. missile defense systems in place at the Iraqi bases.
Who reads Fox News? -- "only one" hanger hit according to Faux News lady reporter on the 3 PM news program.
Was she referring to the group of tent shelters in the sat photo or a real hangar ?
Did she mention number & type of acft damaged or destroyed ?
Does not look like the runways were hit.
Any status on the Burger King ?
Here's some helpful analysis :
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/3 ... se-in-iraq
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youthathletics
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by youthathletics »

Timing is impeccable: Iran says it will not give black box of Ukrainian plane to Boeing

Iran's civil aviation organization has said that it will not hand over to Boeing the black box of the Ukrainian airlines flight that crashed shortly after taking off from Tehran's Imam Khomeni Airport on Wednesday morning.
Both black boxes were found Wednesday, Iranian state television has reported. An Iranian official was quoted as saying both boxes were damaged but that it was believed their data could still be retrieved.
A fraudulent intent, however carefully concealed at the outset, will generally, in the end, betray itself.
~Livy


“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” -Soren Kierkegaard
jhu72
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by jhu72 »

About what I expected. Clearly commercial GPS level accuracy. Apparently final guidance fins found in the debris. Just as good as non-laser guided aircraft delivered bombs with guidance fins.
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jhu72
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by jhu72 »

youthathletics wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 4:30 pm Timing is impeccable: Iran says it will not give black box of Ukrainian plane to Boeing

Iran's civil aviation organization has said that it will not hand over to Boeing the black box of the Ukrainian airlines flight that crashed shortly after taking off from Tehran's Imam Khomeni Airport on Wednesday morning.
Both black boxes were found Wednesday, Iranian state television has reported. An Iranian official was quoted as saying both boxes were damaged but that it was believed their data could still be retrieved.
They have been saying this since early AM east coast this morning.
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