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tech37
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by tech37 »

Matnum PI wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:57 am Doc, you'll have to forgive me for parsing your words and... Trump isn't an ignorant moron. He's a man with a Narcissistic Personality Disorder. (When the history books are written many years from now, we'll discuss NPDs much like we discuss anxiety, depression, ADHD, etc. today. i.e. We'll have a much better understanding of the disorder.) This isn't an excuse any more than being a psychopath is an excuse for throwing acid into a girlfriend's face. I'm just pointing out what the guy really is.
You might be right but Trump certainly isn't the first...

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old salt
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by old salt »

foreverlax wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:02 pm
old salt wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:22 am
Trinity wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:48 am What’s the strategy of surprising our NATO allies, countries with troops on those bases?
I'm confident that our coalition partners on the ground in Iraq were well informed by their US counterparts there & were taking parallel force protection measures, in lock step with us.
Just like he did with the Kurds. :roll:
Examine the evidence. The reports of NATO forces in Iraq repositioning.
DocBarrister
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by DocBarrister »

Matnum PI wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:57 am Doc, you'll have to forgive me for parsing your words and... Trump isn't an ignorant moron. He's a man with a Narcissistic Personality Disorder. (When the history books are written many years from now, we'll discuss NPDs much like we discuss anxiety, depression, ADHD, etc. today. i.e. We'll have a much better understanding of the disorder.) This isn't an excuse any more than being a psychopath is an excuse for throwing acid into a girlfriend's face. I'm just pointing out what the guy really is.
First, as a licensed physician, I’m not really supposed to say he has a specific diagnosis. I can ethically say Trump is a narcissistic piece of trash (which he is), but I can’t (or shouldn’t) say he has narcissistic personality disorder as defined in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual.

Having said that, I respectfully disagree. Patients with NPD are not necessarily ignorant morons. Completely separate things.

Trump is ignorant. This is undeniable.

Trump is a moron. This is also undeniable.

Therefore, Trump is an ignorant moron. This is definitively and undeniably true.

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jhu72
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by jhu72 »

old salt wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:51 am
jhu72 wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:42 am … doesn't fit your narrative hey. :lol:
It's not evidence or data based. As a scientist, you should be cautioning that. I await the battle damage assessment.
I hope we don't disclose to the Iraqis anything they don't already know about their missiles performance or accuracy.
Their (Iranian ballistic missile) accuracy is better than you seem to think assuming they are as good as you could do with commercial off the shelf components. All they need is accurate coordinates. US anti-missile defense will of course moderate their on target success. Don't hold your breath for release of the BDA.
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DocBarrister
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by DocBarrister »

old salt wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:02 pm
DocBarrister wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:47 am
old salt wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:33 am
jhu72 wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:46 am Analysis of Iran's Missile Strike.
That CNN "analysis"is pure speculation. 4 of 15 missiles failed in flight -- not impressive.
The accuracy of the drones & cruise missiles which struck the Saudi oil fields is irrelevant.
Ballistic missile accuracy is much less precise & more challenging to attain.
We don't know what anti-missile defensive measures we employed, & I hope it's not disclosed.
If you don’t think Iran could have killed a lot of Americans yesterday (and still could), then you should really stop commenting.

Iran emerges stronger than ever after this exchange. Trump has lost all credibility and even allies will be reluctant to follow such an erratic and untrustworthy individual. Compared to Trump, Ayatollah Khamanei comes out looking like the adult.

Bottom line: Iran fired ballistic missiles at U.S. forces and are getting away with it. The Iranians made their point and Trump backed off.

And Iran really has one course left ... become a nuclear power.

This is what happens when an ignorant moron like Trump is put in the Oval Office.

DocBarrister :roll:
Sure they could have. They could have fired volleys of missiles at these targets & other more vulnerable targets in the Gulf states where our forces are more concentrated. They were deterred from launching a more serious strike. It was a calculated show of force, sufficient to be face saving for domestic purposes, especially when they also falsely report US casualties.

I was responding about the accuracy & effectiveness of the Iranian ballistic missiles employed, which we (the public) still don't know.
...& we don't have a need to know.

It's not rational to attribute good intentions to the IRGC, based on the performance of their ballistic missiles vs US defenses.
It’s not “good intentions” that I attribute to the Republican Guard, which practically exemplifies a “bad actor”.

The Iranian regime has survived for four decades and seven U.S. presidents. That survival is due to rational (if malignant) behavior out of self-interest. Iran is not so erratic as to endanger its own survival.

Trump is different. He is very erratic and unstable.

Who do you think worries U.S. allies more at this point: Trump or the Ayatollah Khamanei?

I think the answer is pretty clear.

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Matnum PI
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by Matnum PI »

DocBarrister wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:06 pmTrump is ignorant. This is undeniable.

Trump is a moron. This is also undeniable.
I stand corrected. I fell victim to a binary perspective. One can be an ignorant moron with a Narcissistic Personality Disorder. (For the record, I'm not sure if he's a moron.)
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by old salt »

jhu72 wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:07 pm
old salt wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:51 am
jhu72 wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:42 am … doesn't fit your narrative hey. :lol:
It's not evidence or data based. As a scientist, you should be cautioning that. I await the battle damage assessment.
I hope we don't disclose to the Iraqis anything they don't already know about their missiles performance or accuracy.
Their (Iranian ballistic missile) accuracy is better than you seem to think assuming they are as good as you could do with commercial off the shelf components. All they need is accurate coordinates. US anti-missile defense will of course moderate their on target success. Don't hold your breath for release of the BDA.
You don't know how accurate I think their ballistic missiles are.
I know it's irrelevant & irresponsible for the MSM to cite the accuracy of their drones & cruise missiles, which can be controlled in flight.
It has yet to be disclosed what type missiles were employed, if any were capable of post launch guidance, what was the impact site dispersal, what type of warheads were used, & what US defensive measures were employed.
It has been reported that 4 of 15 failed in flight. If accurate -- that is not impressive.
I hope we don't get any significant BDA. We don't have a need to know.
tech37
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by tech37 »

Gotta love people like Doc B and jhu72! They call Trump things like racist, bigot, misogynist, lying piece of trash and yet those labels fit perfectly the theocratic, fascist regime ruling Iran that these guys so fervently support...

Must be Hopkins gave out degrees in hypocrisy :lol:
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by a fan »

old salt wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:41 am I've been thinking strategically for a long time. Long enough to have told you it was a mistake we'd regret to pull out of Iraq
I was just giving you grief for the turn of phrase.

In hindsight? Pulling out of Iraq led to one of our biggest victories against terrorism in our nation's history? What happened? ISIS came out in the open, like the JV that they are. How many tens of thousands of the nuttiest of nutjobs slaughtered as a result of this move? While you convinced me it was a mistake to leave Iraq "too soon" because of Powells' Pottery Barn rule, it wound up working out beautifully. There's no telling how many future terrorist plots were snuffed out because of ISIS's foolish decision to fight in the open.
old salt wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:41 am that the JCPOA would not survive beyond Obama's tenure. Long enough to tell you we became hopelessly entangled in the ME when we went ashore in '91.
Nobody realized it then, except you, me & Jim Webb.
And my fellow libs, marching in the street. Ah, to be young and stupid again! Now I'm just stupid.
old salt wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:41 am The whole "strategy vs tactics" canard is an excuse for being too intellectually lazy to learn the granular tactical considerations which undergird a strategy. You can't discern a strategy ? Examine the tactics & the details surrounding the tactics, study a map, then the strategy becomes apparent.
...but it's more profound to tug your chin, scold "tactics not strategy" when you disagree, & cite Sun Tzu.
I'd buy what you are selling here with any other commander in chief than Trump. Sorry man. He's all over the place. You keep trying to give a structure and a framework that doesn't exist. We'll find out which of us is right soon enough. Nothing would make me happier than being wrong about Trump's intention to pull out of the ME. Reminder: how happy was I with Trump when he announced we were pulling out of Syria? You have to give me credit for this consistency, no?

Well, you don't HAVE to do anything......but I digress.


And Trump's speech today? LOVED it. Wanting to sit down with Iran again....saying he wants peace....calling out NATO....it was great. Loved it.

The trouble, and reason I can't stand him (well, one reason).....is that there is a complete disconnect between what he says, and what he actually does. If Trump did what he said he was doing? I"d be a bigger fanboy than Bandito on about 80% of the issues.

I just don't trust him. At all. But time will tell...
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Re: The Politics of National Security

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old salt wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:16 pm it has been reported that 4 of 15 failed in flight. If accurate -- that is not impressive.
I hope we don't get any significant BDA. We don't have a need to know.
Certainly doesn't bolster the arguments made here that they've been working on ballistics full time over the last five years.

And if the intent was to not cause casualties? Goes against the grain to think they wouldn't choose their most accurate hardware.
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by jhu72 »

old salt wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:16 pm
jhu72 wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:07 pm
old salt wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:51 am
jhu72 wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:42 am … doesn't fit your narrative hey. :lol:
It's not evidence or data based. As a scientist, you should be cautioning that. I await the battle damage assessment.
I hope we don't disclose to the Iraqis anything they don't already know about their missiles performance or accuracy.
Their (Iranian ballistic missile) accuracy is better than you seem to think assuming they are as good as you could do with commercial off the shelf components. All they need is accurate coordinates. US anti-missile defense will of course moderate their on target success. Don't hold your breath for release of the BDA.
You don't know how accurate I think their ballistic missiles are.
I know it's irrelevant & irresponsible for the MSM to cite the accuracy of their drones & cruise missiles, which can be controlled in flight.
It has yet to be disclosed what type missiles were employed, if any were capable of post launch guidance, what was the impact site dispersal, what type of warheads were used, & what US defensive measures were employed.
It has been reported that 4 of 15 failed in flight. If accurate -- that is not impressive.
I hope we don't get any significant BDA. We don't have a need to know.
I doubt the military is today laughing at Iran's ballistic missile technology. This isn't as hard as it once was. Actually, I suspect this was part of the message the Iranians were sending. The US military looking at the missile tracks and they will likely see "bad targeting". According to Andrea Mitchel, her sources seem to have more respect for Iranian ballistic missiles than you do. These aren't SCUDs.
Last edited by jhu72 on Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Politics of National Security

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I hope we don't get any significant BDA. We don't have a need to know.
I'm sure you won't be disappointed. I don't expect that the Trump people will release ANY information on this subject. They will just declare victory AGAIN and move to the next FUBAR and then deal with that in the same incompetent way as they have dealt with everything else.

That said,, I am impressed that he read from a script (or droned on while reading a prepared script) for that long despite fumbling and slurring a few words.
tech37
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by tech37 »

a fan wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:29 pm
old salt wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:16 pm it has been reported that 4 of 15 failed in flight. If accurate -- that is not impressive.
I hope we don't get any significant BDA. We don't have a need to know.
Certainly doesn't bolster the arguments made here that they've been working on ballistics full time over the last five years.

And if the intent was to not cause casualties? Goes against the grain to think they wouldn't choose their most accurate hardware.
Seriously a fan, you still believe their intent was to kill Americans?

IMO, they took the admin's threats to heart.
DocBarrister
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by DocBarrister »

For anyone who doubts that Trump has left the United States looking weak, like an impotent, cowering bully who just got his nose smacked, ask yourself this:

When was the last time in history that a NATION fired ballistic missiles at U.S. forces from their own soil and didn’t face military retaliation?

I’m relieved that the United States didn’t respond militarily. That’s not the point. The point is, Trump should never have been so reckless and short-sighted to put the U.S. in this position. He obviously didn’t think things through before killing Solamanei.

We have an idiot president playing checkers, while our adversaries are playing chess.

DocBarrister :roll:
Last edited by DocBarrister on Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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jhu72
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by jhu72 »

tech37 wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:26 pm Gotta love people like Doc B and jhu72! They call Trump things like racist, bigot, misogynist, lying piece of trash and yet those labels fit perfectly the theocratic, fascist regime ruling Iran that these guys so fervently support...

Must be Hopkins gave out degrees in hypocrisy :lol:
I see no evidence that Doc or I support (let alone feverishly) Iran. Just being honest, giving the devil his due. They are just as competent (or as incompetent) as the US. Their religious fanaticism is at base no better or worse than US religious fanatics. Their government is one which Orange Duce aspires to.
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by a fan »

No. I agree they weren't trying to kill Americans, tech.

I'm saying: look at the logic that follows. If you're Iran, and you want to send missiles that hit a base, yet not kill Americans and risking Trump's disproportionate retaliation.....you're going to send your most accurate weapons, right?

And what happened? Old salt is telling us that 4 of 15 of them failed in flight.

My point/conclusion is: they have a long way to go in their ballistic development, and maybe they didn't work on it so hard over the last five years.

In other words, it's sounding like our intel was wrong.
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by old salt »

jhu72 wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:32 pm
old salt wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:16 pm
jhu72 wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:07 pm
old salt wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:51 am
jhu72 wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:42 am … doesn't fit your narrative hey. :lol:
It's not evidence or data based. As a scientist, you should be cautioning that. I await the battle damage assessment.
I hope we don't disclose to the Iraqis anything they don't already know about their missiles performance or accuracy.
Their (Iranian ballistic missile) accuracy is better than you seem to think assuming they are as good as you could do with commercial off the shelf components. All they need is accurate coordinates. US anti-missile defense will of course moderate their on target success. Don't hold your breath for release of the BDA.
You don't know how accurate I think their ballistic missiles are.
I know it's irrelevant & irresponsible for the MSM to cite the accuracy of their drones & cruise missiles, which can be controlled in flight.
It has yet to be disclosed what type missiles were employed, if any were capable of post launch guidance, what was the impact site dispersal, what type of warheads were used, & what US defensive measures were employed.
It has been reported that 4 of 15 failed in flight. If accurate -- that is not impressive.
I hope we don't get any significant BDA. We don't have a need to know.
I doubt the military is today laughing at Iran's ballistic missile technology. This isn't as hard as it once was. Actually, I suspect this was part of the message the Iranians were sending. The US military looking at the missile tracks and they will likely see "bad targeting". According to Andrea Mitchel, her sources seem to have more respect for Iranian ballistic missiles than you do.
You're the only one laughing. Why do the MSNBC talikng heads keep alluding to the accuracy of the drone/cruise missile strikes on the Saudi oil facility when reporting in this ballistic missile strike.

Bad targeting ? You can get the coords for the ramps, acft shelters & buildings at Al Asad from Google maps/sat images.
Last edited by old salt on Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
DocBarrister
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by DocBarrister »

jhu72 wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:38 pm
tech37 wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:26 pm Gotta love people like Doc B and jhu72! They call Trump things like racist, bigot, misogynist, lying piece of trash and yet those labels fit perfectly the theocratic, fascist regime ruling Iran that these guys so fervently support...

Must be Hopkins gave out degrees in hypocrisy :lol:
I see no evidence that Doc or I support (let alone feverishly) Iran. Just being honest, giving the devil his due. They are just as competent (or as incompetent) as the US. Their religious fanaticism is at base no better or worse than US religious fanatics. Their government is one which Orange Duce aspires to.
The theocratic, autocratic Iranian regime and its core supporters are undoubtedly racist, bigoted, misogynistic, lying pieces of trash.

What does it say about the current state of our once-great nation when Trump and his core supporters can be described the same way?

DocBarrister :roll:
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tech37
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by tech37 »

jhu72 wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:38 pm
tech37 wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:26 pm Gotta love people like Doc B and jhu72! They call Trump things like racist, bigot, misogynist, lying piece of trash and yet those labels fit perfectly the theocratic, fascist regime ruling Iran that these guys so fervently support...

Must be Hopkins gave out degrees in hypocrisy :lol:
I see no evidence that Doc or I support (let alone feverishly) Iran. Just being honest, giving the devil his due. They are just as competent (or as incompetent) as the US. Their religious fanaticism is at base no better or worse than US religious fanatics. Their government is one which Orange Duce aspires to.
Oh I see now...you simply hate Trump more than the people ruling Iran. Got it.

Guess Hopkins gave degrees in unconditional hate as well.
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by jhu72 »

a fan wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:41 pm No. I agree they weren't trying to kill Americans, tech.

I'm saying: look at the logic that follows. If you're Iran, and you want to send missiles that hit a base, yet not kill Americans and risking Trump's disproportionate retaliation.....you're going to send your most accurate weapons, right?

And what happened? Old salt is telling us that 4 of 15 of them failed in flight.

My point/conclusion is: they have a long way to go in their ballistic development, and maybe they didn't work on it so hard over the last five years.

In other words, it's sounding like our intel was wrong.

Could be (4 of 15), but I have not seen either of those numbers from authorative sources.
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