Final Four Predictions (Poll)

[wgdsr]

you're a funny guy, cooter.
i believe conrad was their 5th leading scorer last year. herring probably their 6th. they didn't lose anyone else on o. between the 2nd, rs-1st, and 1st years filling in they should have plenty to make that up. to my point earlier, those 2 were huge late game in a number of critical wins, so that will be a question mark-ish, but all the key returnees at the top did the same. not really concerned with offense unless they get too predictable, which they have been but were able to overcome.

hoo fans are a good deal more concerned with the loss of other parts of conrad's game and hoo will pick that up. and the grad of 3 of the 5 ssdm's, who played loads better at the end of the year than the beginning, and they were seniors.

the return of 3 very good poles and the faceoff crew (tho no conrad on wings) is a good place to start building. personally, think it'll come down to ssdm's and rode not hitting a nadir at the wrong time. virginia's d was very good by year end, and their mindset on offense of not having to protect them by being cautious gave them a chance to beat some very good teams.

[Cooter]

you're a funny guy, cooter.
i believe conrad was their 5th leading scorer last year. herring probably their 6th. they didn't lose anyone else on o. between the 2nd, rs-1st, and 1st years filling in they should have plenty to make that up. to my point earlier, those 2 were huge late game in a number of critical wins, so that will be a question mark-ish, but all the key returnees at the top did the same. not really concerned with offense unless they get too predictable, which they have been but were able to overcome.

Maryland loses only their 5th leading scorer among their top 6, Dubick, who was an attackman. Conrad's totals for a midfielder were very good (49pts) and might not be so easy to replace. I think it is usually easier to replace an off-ball attackman than a top flight midfielder, who can play both ends.

Maryland returns their top 4 scorers, who on a per game basis scored about the same as UVa's top 4. Maryland has a number of nice players: freshmen, rs freshman, and sophomores to step in also. Barring injuries, I am not really concerned with Maryland's offense either.

While I imagine if you wish to go by recruit rankings, you could note that UVa adds the #1 recruit in Shellenberger, but watching fall ball (the show me thing), Shellenberger did not really seem to excel as a midfielder. Of course, there is the red-shirt Cormier but the Terps seemed to get a couple goals from their red-shirt N.DeMaio in fall ball also. Then the Terps have Kyle Long, who showed the most of any of the remaining players on either roster after the top 4 last Spring.
In the end, it comes out pretty equal.

[Lenwood117]

you're a funny guy, cooter.
i believe conrad was their 5th leading scorer last year. herring probably their 6th. they didn't lose anyone else on o. between the 2nd, rs-1st, and 1st years filling in they should have plenty to make that up. to my point earlier, those 2 were huge late game in a number of critical wins, so that will be a question mark-ish, but all the key returnees at the top did the same. not really concerned with offense unless they get too predictable, which they have been but were able to overcome.

Maryland loses only their 5th leading scorer among their top 6, Dubick, who was an attackman. Conrad's totals for a midfielder were very good (49pts) and might not be so easy to replace. I think it is usually easier to replace an off-ball attackman than a top flight midfielder, who can play both ends.

Maryland returns their top 4 scorers, who on a per game basis scored about the same as UVa's top 4. Maryland has a number of nice players: freshmen, rs freshman, and sophomores to step in also. Barring injuries, I am not really concerned with Maryland's offense either.

While I imagine if you wish to go by recruit rankings, you could note that UVa adds the #1 recruit in Shellenberger, but watching fall ball (the show me thing), Shellenberger did not really seem to excel as a midfielder. Of course, there is the red-shirt Cormier but the Terps seemed to get a couple goals from their red-shirt N.DeMaio in fall ball also. Then the Terps have Kyle Long, who showed the most of any of the remaining players on either roster after the top 4 last Spring.
In the end, it comes out pretty equal.

Virginia has transfer from Army prep a miidie, hes very very good.

[ChairmanOfTheBoard]

im gonna go with maryland, simply because no one else believes in them at this point.

[Wheels]

Who is sleeping on them? They've been an extremely popular preseason Final Four pick if you've been paying attention to social media and the various lax blogs.

One team I think is actually being slept on, as much as it pains me to say, is UNC. They had a bunch of young guys on offense last year and I think it showed. But over the final month or so if the season they looked like a different team—beating Duke and Syracuse and losing two 1-goal games to Virginia (they really should have won that second one—completely choked the game away). Now they add Chris Gray? Going to be significantly improved. Not sure about Final Four yet but I wouldn't be shocked to see them end up there.

Besides that the usual suspects—Virginia, Penn State, Yale—seem like good places to start. Penn State simply must make the Final Four with that roster they bring back.

Without Scanlan, I thought they were underrated given what they returned all over the field and from injuries. I didn't see a lot of people or bloggers talking about them before Scanlan. After Scanlan transferred, they've certainly gotten a lot of much deserved love.

I think Yale is actually overrated. Their lack of athleticism at the attack position hurt them in the title game. UVA didn't have to slide at all to Yale's attack. Yale loses a ton from their midfield, so their depth at that position will be tested for sure. Penn looks deeper and more athletic than Yale. I think Princeton will finally put things together this season push Yale for 2nd place in the Ivy and jump Cornell...especially if Princeton can get close to 50% at the face-off.

B1G...PSU, Maryland, OSU, and JHU in that order. As for UNC, when haven't they had gobs of talent since Breschi got there? If not for a Cloutier-filled berserker run in 2016, UNC has become a 1st or 2nd round annual flameout.

[Wheels]

you're a funny guy, cooter.
i believe conrad was their 5th leading scorer last year. herring probably their 6th. they didn't lose anyone else on o. between the 2nd, rs-1st, and 1st years filling in they should have plenty to make that up. to my point earlier, those 2 were huge late game in a number of critical wins, so that will be a question mark-ish, but all the key returnees at the top did the same. not really concerned with offense unless they get too predictable, which they have been but were able to overcome.

hoo fans are a good deal more concerned with the loss of other parts of conrad's game and hoo will pick that up. and the grad of 3 of the 5 ssdm's, who played loads better at the end of the year than the beginning, and they were seniors.

the return of 3 very good poles and the faceoff crew (tho no conrad on wings) is a good place to start building. personally, think it'll come down to ssdm's and rode not hitting a nadir at the wrong time. virginia's d was very good by year end, and their mindset on offense of not having to protect them by being cautious gave them a chance to beat some very good teams.

Dunno...Conrad carried UVA in that quarterfinal game. If not for his efforts on both ends of the field (4g, 1a, 4gbs), UVA never gets off of the mat. He was special in that game. Willed them to win. They won't struggle to replace his scoring. They won't be able to replace him on the wings or on defense. It will be really interesting to see if they can replace his leadership. Heart transplants are dicey.

[HopFan16]

Without Scanlan, I thought they were underrated given what they returned all over the field and from injuries. I didn't see a lot of people or bloggers talking about them before Scanlan. After Scanlan transferred, they've certainly gotten a lot of much deserved love.

I mean, they lost in the first round last season. I'm not exactly sure how they were being underrated. Why did people need to be talking about a team that didn't make it out of the first round and was losing their top two scorers? Sure, they were bringing back a good amount of other talent (including Dordevic), but before the Scanlan thing happened, what was the rationale that they'd be making a huge leap? It's not like they were a Final Four team bringing back all their talent and were primed for another run. I don't know anything about their recruiting class other than the fact that they didn't have anyone in the UAAA game, which we know doesn't always mean much, but it's also probably not a great sign, IMO. I think adding Scanlan and his 58 pts as an attack/middie hybrid is a legitimate reason for some optimism that they will improve on last year's finish and be in the conversation for a Final Four—and you're seeing that reflected in some of the preseason social media punditry—but before that happened I think they were being properly rated as top 10ish team that would probably make some noise, though still outside that very top tier of teams.

To answer a question from earlier: Right now I'd probably put my money on Duke as a potential 4th Final Four team—they were a whisker away from the title game in 2019 and now bring in another stellar recruiting class (led by Dyson Williams, who is a legit legit player) to add to a strong senior class led by Giles-Harris. But there's a whole group of teams including, yes, Maryland and Syracuse (I'd add Notre Dame and maybe Cornell and UNC, who I outlined already, as viable FF teams—at least at this early stage). As for my Jays, well, other than Epstein's continued development and the assumption that goalie play can't get any worse than it was, not sure there's much "there" there to expect anything better than a quarterfinal.

[Cooter]

Duke does seem like one of the usual suspects. They do lose Brad Smith and Van Raaphorst, but bring in some talented freshmen, which seems to address these losses with a top attackman, Dyson Williams, and 2 highly touted d-men, Kenny Brower and Will Frisoli. (They also add a highly touted midfield in Jake Caputo.)

We really haven't gotten too many precise predictions as yet:
Cooter - PSU, UMd, UVa, Syracuse
Hoodat - UVa, Cornell, Duke, Penn
laxrules - PSU, UMd, UVa, Syracuse
Hop16 - PSU, Yale, UVa, Duke
If we get enough we can tally them up.

[stupefied]

Fair enough Hopfan . I'll agree that Syracuse is outside the top five but potential to be in FF certainly there because they arguably possess a top 5 talent at mid, dm, lsm, close and perhaps now at attack.

[FannOLax]

We really haven't gotten too many precise predictions as yet:
Cooter - PSU, UMd, UVa, Syracuse
Hoodat - UVa, Cornell, Duke, Penn
laxrules - PSU, UMd, UVa, Syracuse
Hop16 - PSU, Yale, UVa, Duke
If we get enough we can tally them up.

My precise predictions: UVa, Penn State, Yale, Syracuse. I believe that Calourie's were pretty precise and should be included in the tally.

[Wheels]

I mean, they lost in the first round last season. I'm not exactly sure how they were being underrated. Why did people need to be talking about a team that didn't make it out of the first round and was losing their top two scorers? Sure, they were bringing back a good amount of other talent (including Dordevic), but before the Scanlan thing happened, what was the rationale that they'd be making a huge leap? It's not like they were a Final Four team bringing back all their talent and were primed for another run. I don't know anything about their recruiting class other than the fact that they didn't have anyone in the UAAA game, which we know doesn't always mean much, but it's also probably not a great sign, IMO. I think adding Scanlan and his 58 pts as an attack/middie hybrid is a legitimate reason for some optimism that they will improve on last year's finish and be in the conversation for a Final Four—and you're seeing that reflected in some of the preseason social media punditry—but before that happened I think they were being properly rated as top 10ish team that would probably make some noise, though still outside that very top tier of teams.

Dordevic is a game-changer. They lose 2 good attackmen, but they will have 2 very good lines of midfield. I like their defense, goalie, and rope units. I think they have the best of those units in the ACC (yes, better than UVA). Their struggles last year were on the offensive end, which is why Dordevic's return was a good thing. Add in Scanlan now.

I won't be surprised if Duke takes a step back. Losing a lot in the midfield and defense. Won't be easy to replace, even with the elite freshman they bring in. Yale's in the same spot. And can Notre Dame ever figure out offense?

Sleeper FF team for me is Ohio State. Should be a fun year. Maybe we'll see another changing of the perennial contenders. Patrick Stevens has tracked this in years past. You used to pencil in JHU/UVA/Cuse every year to the FF. Then it was Maryland/Duke/Denver every year. Maybe now we'll see a run of PSU/Ivy/Duke every year.

[HopFan16]

I mean, they lost in the first round last season. I'm not exactly sure how they were being underrated. Why did people need to be talking about a team that didn't make it out of the first round and was losing their top two scorers? Sure, they were bringing back a good amount of other talent (including Dordevic), but before the Scanlan thing happened, what was the rationale that they'd be making a huge leap? It's not like they were a Final Four team bringing back all their talent and were primed for another run. I don't know anything about their recruiting class other than the fact that they didn't have anyone in the UAAA game, which we know doesn't always mean much, but it's also probably not a great sign, IMO. I think adding Scanlan and his 58 pts as an attack/middie hybrid is a legitimate reason for some optimism that they will improve on last year's finish and be in the conversation for a Final Four—and you're seeing that reflected in some of the preseason social media punditry—but before that happened I think they were being properly rated as top 10ish team that would probably make some noise, though still outside that very top tier of teams.

Dordevic is a game-changer. They lose 2 good attackmen, but they will have 2 very good lines of midfield. I like their defense, goalie, and rope units. I think they have the best of those units in the ACC (yes, better than UVA). Their struggles last year were on the offensive end, which is why Dordevic's return was a good thing. Add in Scanlan now.

I won't be surprised if Duke takes a step back. Losing a lot in the midfield and defense. Won't be easy to replace, even with the elite freshman they bring in. Yale's in the same spot. And can Notre Dame ever figure out offense?

Sleeper FF team for me is Ohio State. Should be a fun year. Maybe we'll see another changing of the perennial contenders. Patrick Stevens has tracked this in years past. You used to pencil in JHU/UVA/Cuse every year to the FF. Then it was Maryland/Duke/Denver every year. Maybe now we'll see a run of PSU/Ivy/Duke every year.

Dordevic is very good, but game-changer? He started every game for Cuse in 2018 and had 15 goals (on 26% shooting). What exactly about 15 goals is game-changing? He only had one game with 3 or more points. Again—good player, and if he's fully healthy, I'd expect him to score more than that in his second year as a starter. But he does not drastically change the equation, IMO. Cuse's offense was already perfectly fine statistically: 15th in goals per game last season. They were actually more productive in 2019 without Dordevic than they were in 2018 with him (then again, a lot of teams were, thanks to the shot clock). He makes what was already a deep midfield even deeper. No doubt that's a strength to the team.

[molo]

Given the caveats that it's way too early, that injuries can occur, etc., I will--just for fun--offer my predicted final four plus four more. Here goes an intrepid, and maybe ill advised. attempt.
1. UVA The defending champs lose an irreplaceable player in Conrad, they need to find a third starter on close d, and they need to find some depth at ssdm. The offense should be as good or better than last year.
2. Penn State Will the Nittany Lions, regarded by many as the best team last year, finally win the NC, or are they destined to go down as the modern day equivalent to some of the UVA teams of the mid90s, great but no NC?
3. Syracuse Scanlan joins an offense that features a stable of excellent middies. They are deep at pole, and Dearth excels at ssdm. They are due to get back to the FF.
4. Maryland Tillman typically takes the Terps to the final four. Last year was close. The offensive stars are more experienced, and the d, down a little last year, is almost always excellent.
5. Duke Will the ACC be so good that Duke is the third best team in the conference? I would not be surprised to see them Memorial Day in 2020.
6. Yale Another team I'm hesitant to exclude from the top four, but they lose some key middies, and last year's d was not as good as the previous year's.
7. North Carolina Will Gray lead this team, who was strong at the end of last year, back to the upper echelon?
8. Penn Along with Yale, they look promising in an Ivy League that with Teat at Cornell and Sowers at Princeton, showcases some of the nation's top attackmen.
Top ten will be close next year.

[Cooter]

So far,
Cooter - PSU, UMd, UVa, Syracuse
Hoodat - UVa, Cornell, Duke, Penn
laxrules - PSU, UMd, UVa, Syracuse
Hop16 - PSU, Yale, UVa, Duke
FannOLax - UVa, PSU, Yale, Syracuse
molo - UVa, PSU, Syracuse, UMd
calorie - Yale, PSU*, UVa, Syracuse - * we could use clarification here

You used to pencil in JHU/UVA/Cuse every year to the FF. Then it was Maryland/Duke/Denver every year. Maybe now we'll see a run of PSU/Ivy/Duke every year.

PSU loses a lot after this spring: Ament, O'Keefe, Foulds, Arceri, Kneese, ..., so I wouldn't be predicting a final four for them in 2021. It will be interesting to see how the Big Ten shifts around in 2021.
While I am not willing to write in great team status for Duke, their recruiting tends to indicate that the will be amongst the top teams over the next 5 years.

[calourie]

Yes Cooter, by State I meant Penn State.

[Cooter]

Yes Cooter, by State I meant Penn State.

I figured you did, but OSU is a top 20 team and did make the final four a few years back.

[calourie]

We all know you have to use "THE" when referring to Ohio State, as in THE Ohio State University.

[blue angels]

you're a funny guy, cooter.
i believe conrad was their 5th leading scorer last year. herring probably their 6th. they didn't lose anyone else on o. between the 2nd, rs-1st, and 1st years filling in they should have plenty to make that up. to my point earlier, those 2 were huge late game in a number of critical wins, so that will be a question mark-ish, but all the key returnees at the top did the same. not really concerned with offense unless they get too predictable, which they have been but were able to overcome.

hoo fans are a good deal more concerned with the loss of other parts of conrad's game and hoo will pick that up. and the grad of 3 of the 5 ssdm's, who played loads better at the end of the year than the beginning, and they were seniors.

the return of 3 very good poles and the faceoff crew (tho no conrad on wings) is a good place to start building. personally, think it'll come down to ssdm's and rode not hitting a nadir at the wrong time. virginia's d was very good by year end, and their mindset on offense of not having to protect them by being cautious gave them a chance to beat some very good teams.

Dunno...Conrad carried UVA in that quarterfinal game. If not for his efforts on both ends of the field (4g, 1a, 4gbs), UVA never gets off of the mat. He was special in that game. Willed them to win. They won't struggle to replace his scoring. They won't be able to replace him on the wings or on defense. It will be really interesting to see if they can replace his leadership. Heart transplants are dicey.

Sounds like a lot of wishing and a hoping.....Conrad was a superb player. We will miss him, but he didn’t play much D last year. We shall see when the season gets here, but Virginia certainly held it’s own against Baptiste and the rest of the best in the world from Team USA and Team Canada on face offs this Fall. That isn’t looking like much of a team weakness at this point. I don’t know too much about the team personnel at Maryland but expect them to also be there at the end over Penn State.

[DocBarrister]

So far,
Cooter - PSU, UMd, UVa, Syracuse
Hoodat - UVa, Cornell, Duke, Penn
laxrules - PSU, UMd, UVa, Syracuse
Hop16 - PSU, Yale, UVa, Duke
FannOLax - UVa, PSU, Yale, Syracuse
molo - UVa, PSU, Syracuse, UMd
calorie - Yale, PSU*, UVa, Syracuse - * we could use clarification here

You used to pencil in JHU/UVA/Cuse every year to the FF. Then it was Maryland/Duke/Denver every year. Maybe now we'll see a run of PSU/Ivy/Duke every year.

PSU loses a lot after this spring: Ament, O'Keefe, Foulds, Arceri, Kneese, ..., so I wouldn't be predicting a final four for them in 2021. It will be interesting to see how the Big Ten shifts around in 2021.
While I am not willing to write in great team status for Duke, their recruiting tends to indicate that the will be amongst the top teams over the next 5 years.

It will be B1G vs. ACC in the two NCAA semifinals:

Duke, Penn State, Virginia, and Johns Hopkins (made the last prediction a couple of months ago)

DocBarrister

[cltlax]

We all know you have to use "THE" when referring to Ohio State, as in THE Ohio State University.

OSU tried to trademark "The" and were denied.