2020 Elections - Trump FIRED

[RedFromMI]

Facts:

Matt Bevin was down 17 points before @realDonaldTrump held a rally in Lexington

Now he's within .3 points of his Democrat opponent

Republicans also won 5 of 6 statewide races

There is HUGE Trump enthusiasm in Kentucky and across America

Not a fact: that Bevin was 17 points down in any poll within a week of the election. Last published poll had Bevin _up_ by 6 among likely voters. And Trump enthusiasm is limited to about 40 per cent of America.

[3rdPersonPlural]

Am I correct (Morning Joe data), the polls had R Bevin ahead by 5 a week ago?
In the meantime, Trump had a rally the night before the vote.
Was the poll wrong the week before, or did I miss hear?

According to RealClear Politics, you're spot on....

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6723.html

[jhu72]

Thanks. I should have been clearer. I was referring to the votes in the northeast counties which I didn’t bother to look up. I also think Biden would do better with African-American voters than Clinton did. Perhaps not by a huge amount, but every vote counts.

Based on last nights results, I think Biden would have an excellent chance of beating Trump without it being really close. This based on the results in eastern Kentucky. Coal miners and other blue collar workers who voted for Trump 2016, abandoned him last night. Biden is a magnet for this type of voter.

Analysis of the results in eastern Kentucky shows a 60 point swing between Trump 2016 and last night's results. Trump won these counties big time in 2016 and lost them last night by a dozen points. I am sure a big part of that had to do with healthcare, available ACA funding not being picked up by the governor.

[jhu72]

Facts:

Matt Bevin was down 17 points before @realDonaldTrump held a rally in Lexington

Now he's within .3 points of his Democrat opponent

Republicans also won 5 of 6 statewide races

There is HUGE Trump enthusiasm in Kentucky and across America

Not a fact: that Bevin was 17 points down in any poll within a week of the election. Last published poll had Bevin _up_ by 6 among likely voters. And Trump enthusiasm is limited to about 40 per cent of America.

This 17 point nonsense is obviously based on official administration propaganda. Probably an Orange Duce tweet.

[DMac]

The Dems will not get Trump out of the WH with Joe or Lizzie, neither one will beat Trump. Lizzie comes across as an annoying screaching lunatic and Joe comes across as a guy who needs a nap.
Every time I see Tulsi I'm more impressed with her and I believe she can eat Trump's lunch. This is a very confident and sharp gal, nothing arrogant or artificial about her. The Dems need to get behind this gal, she's the real deal. HRC was a big a*s*shole long before she spread the BS about TG being a Russian tool, that should just confirm the fact for those who had any doubt about it. Tulsi is the gal you Dems need to get behind, your other jamoks aint gonna cut it.

[CU88]

Facts:

Matt Bevin was down 17 points before @realDonaldTrump held a rally in Lexington

Now he's within .3 points of his Democrat opponent

Republicans also won 5 of 6 statewide races

There is HUGE Trump enthusiasm in Kentucky and across America

Not a fact: that Bevin was 17 points down in any poll within a week of the election. Last published poll had Bevin _up_ by 6 among likely voters. And Trump enthusiasm is limited to about 40 per cent of America.

This 17 point nonsense is obviously based on official administration propaganda. Probably an Orange Duce tweet.

Much maligned for their performance in the 2016 general election — and somewhat unfairly so, since the overall accuracy of the polls was only slightly below average that year by historical standards — American election polls have been quite accurate since then. Their performance was very strong in the 2018 midterms, despite the challenge of having to poll dozens of diverse congressional districts around the country, many of which had not had a competitive election in years. Polls have also generally been accurate in the various special elections and off-year gubernatorial elections that have occurred since 2016, even though those are also often difficult races to poll.


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/th ... 538twitter

Not sure why they used such an outdated photo/graphic for the header...

[a fan]

The Dems will not get Trump out of the WH with Joe or Lizzie, neither one will beat Trump. Lizzie comes across as an annoying screaching lunatic and Joe comes across as a guy who needs a nap.
Every time I see Tulsi I'm more impressed with her and I believe she can eat Trump's lunch. This is a very confident and sharp gal, nothing arrogant or artificial about her. The Dems need to get behind this gal, she's the real deal. HRC was a big a*s*shole long before she spread the BS about TG being a Russian tool, that should just confirm the fact for those who had any doubt about it. Tulsi is the gal you Dems need to get behind, your other jamoks aint gonna cut it.

I agree completely.

Cannot see Biden mustering the voter turnout needed to win.

I think Tusli can get that turnout number up. Just my opinion.

Warren? No chance. None.

[seacoaster]

The Dems will not get Trump out of the WH with Joe or Lizzie, neither one will beat Trump. Lizzie comes across as an annoying screaching lunatic and Joe comes across as a guy who needs a nap.
Every time I see Tulsi I'm more impressed with her and I believe she can eat Trump's lunch. This is a very confident and sharp gal, nothing arrogant or artificial about her. The Dems need to get behind this gal, she's the real deal. HRC was a big a*s*shole long before she spread the BS about TG being a Russian tool, that should just confirm the fact for those who had any doubt about it. Tulsi is the gal you Dems need to get behind, your other jamoks aint gonna cut it.

I agree completely.

Cannot see Biden mustering the voter turnout needed to win.

I think Tusli can get that turnout number up. Just my opinion.

Warren? No chance. None.

Respectfully, Tulsi doesn't stand a chance, in the primary or in a general. She'll be gone after New Hampshire, unless someone convinces her to do an independent run.

[a fan]

Oh, I agree, given where we are. Won't make it out of the primaries. You're 100% correct.

I'm simply saying, if they could magic her to the nomination, I think she could get enough out to vote.

Sorry, wasn't very clear with my thoughts here....

[Typical Lax Dad]

The Dems will not get Trump out of the WH with Joe or Lizzie, neither one will beat Trump. Lizzie comes across as an annoying screaching lunatic and Joe comes across as a guy who needs a nap.
Every time I see Tulsi I'm more impressed with her and I believe she can eat Trump's lunch. This is a very confident and sharp gal, nothing arrogant or artificial about her. The Dems need to get behind this gal, she's the real deal. HRC was a big a*s*shole long before she spread the BS about TG being a Russian tool, that should just confirm the fact for those who had any doubt about it. Tulsi is the gal you Dems need to get behind, your other jamoks aint gonna cut it.

Trump's margin of victory.....

The most important states, though, were Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump won those states by 0.2, 0.7 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively — and by 10,704, 46,765 and 22,177 votes. Those three wins gave him 46 electoral votes; if Clinton had done one point better in each state, she'd have won the electoral vote, too.

More people than than that show up at Ohio State football games each week. This was against a candidate with a ton of baggage, with the Russian government working on behalf of Trump and against Clinton, along with the benefit of stealing the DNC's campaign data base which detailed potential voters by email, Facebook, twitter and instagram accounts. I don't know what Trump has done to make him more popular. By the time its narrowed down to a field of 1 nominee. things will look different.

[DMac]

The Dems will not get Trump out of the WH with Joe or Lizzie, neither one will beat Trump. Lizzie comes across as an annoying screaching lunatic and Joe comes across as a guy who needs a nap.
Every time I see Tulsi I'm more impressed with her and I believe she can eat Trump's lunch. This is a very confident and sharp gal, nothing arrogant or artificial about her. The Dems need to get behind this gal, she's the real deal. HRC was a big a*s*shole long before she spread the BS about TG being a Russian tool, that should just confirm the fact for those who had any doubt about it. Tulsi is the gal you Dems need to get behind, your other jamoks aint gonna cut it.

I agree completely.

Cannot see Biden mustering the voter turnout needed to win.

I think Tusli can get that turnout number up. Just my opinion.

Warren? No chance. None.

Respectfully, Tulsi doesn't stand a chance, in the primary or in a general. She'll be gone after New Hampshire, unless someone convinces her to do an independent run.

Don't disagree here but that's unfortunate, this is the kind of gal/person they need to get behind not the ones they're propping up now. You'd think they'd learn from the last go 'round but it doesn't look to me as if they have.

[foreverlax]

The Dems will not get Trump out of the WH with Joe or Lizzie, neither one will beat Trump. Lizzie comes across as an annoying screaching lunatic and Joe comes across as a guy who needs a nap.
Every time I see Tulsi I'm more impressed with her and I believe she can eat Trump's lunch. This is a very confident and sharp gal, nothing arrogant or artificial about her. The Dems need to get behind this gal, she's the real deal. HRC was a big a*s*shole long before she spread the BS about TG being a Russian tool, that should just confirm the fact for those who had any doubt about it. Tulsi is the gal you Dems need to get behind, your other jamoks aint gonna cut it.

I agree completely.

Cannot see Biden mustering the voter turnout needed to win.

I think Tusli can get that turnout number up. Just my opinion.

Warren? No chance. None.

Respectfully, Tulsi doesn't stand a chance, in the primary or in a general. She'll be gone after New Hampshire, unless someone convinces her to do an independent run.

Don't disagree here but that's unfortunate, this is the kind of gal/person they need to get behind not the ones they're propping up now. You'd think they'd learn from the last go 'round but it doesn't look to me as if they have.

Amy and Pete would be freakin formidable.

[DMac]

Like both of them, think either would be better than running Joe or Lizzie, the Ds have got to get those two out of the picture if they want to win, IMHO.

[CU77]

So, DMac, if it's Joe v Trump, whatchya gonna do on election day?

We can wish all day long for a different situation, but realistically it's down to Joe, Lizzie, & Bernie for the D nom. Joe is going to pull 90% of AA votes. After SC he will be the obvious front runner. I will be working hard for Joe, who IMO has by far the best chance of the 3 of beating Trump. Safe choice for the persuadable.

He does need a get-out-the-progressive-vote VP. Harris seems like the best choice.

[ggait]

Respectfully, Tulsi doesn't stand a chance, in the primary or in a general. She'll be gone after New Hampshire, unless someone convinces her to do an independent run.

Unfortunately for Tulsi, the Fanlax board community is the only demo in the entire U.S. that knows or cares about her. She's beyond irrelevant. Maybe she could team up with my personal favorite obscure candidate (CO's Bennet) so that together they could break the 4% mark.

The key takeaway from KY is that turn out was up -- BIGLY. 31% in 2015 vs. 42% in 2019. That's why the late polls were off -- they didn't model the turnout correctly. Turnout on both sides in 2020 is going to be HUGE and the particular Dem nominee is not going to matter all that much. Trump will turn out his base and he is also going to turn out the Dems.

Voting today is all about negative partisanship. Reps don't like Trump, but they hate Dems so much they'll vote for jerk like Trump. Unlike 2016 when Dems were unexcited or apathetic, in 2020 Dems will crawl over broken glass to vote that flaming a-hole out of office.

My liberal fool millenial kids feel the Bern, but they'd gladly vote for grandpa Joe in order to flip Trump the bird. I wouldn't pick Lizzie since she'd make it closer in the rust belt than it would be for Joe (who would get huge turnout).

[cradleandshoot]

Like both of them, think either would be better than running Joe or Lizzie, the Ds have got to get those two out of the picture if they want to win, IMHO.

If Uncle Joe wins the nomination I am putting as much money as I can in no doze stock. Uncle Joe will need it and so will the entire nation. I am a big Tulsi fan. She would get my vote in a heartbeat. To "moderate" for the cut throat FLP wing of the party. She is also too full of common sense ideas that resonate with middle America. It looks like the Dems are going to find a way, yet again, to snag defeat from the jaws of victory.

I already hear you out there MD getting ready to start giving me grief about my affection for Tulsi's moderate stance. There is nothing wrong in moderation as long as you don't sell out all of your core beliefs to get there... savvy.

[cradleandshoot]

Respectfully, Tulsi doesn't stand a chance, in the primary or in a general. She'll be gone after New Hampshire, unless someone convinces her to do an independent run.

Unfortunately for Tulsi, the Fanlax board community is the only demo in the entire U.S. that knows or cares about her. She's beyond irrelevant. Maybe she could team up with my personal favorite obscure candidate (CO's Bennet) so that together they could break the 4% mark.

The key takeaway from KY is that turn out was up -- BIGLY. 31% in 2015 vs. 42% in 2019. That's why the late polls were off -- they didn't model the turnout correctly. Turnout on both sides in 2020 is going to be HUGE and the particular Dem nominee is not going to matter all that much. Trump will turn out his base and he is also going to turn out the Dems.

Voting today is all about negative partisanship. Reps don't like Trump, but they hate Dems so much they'll vote for jerk like Trump. Unlike 2016 when Dems were unexcited or apathetic, in 2020 Dems will crawl over broken glass to vote that flaming a-hole out of office.

My liberal fool millenial kids feel the Bern, but they'd gladly vote for grandpa Joe in order to flip Trump the bird. I wouldn't pick Lizzie since she'd make it closer in the rust belt than it would be for Joe (who would get huge turnout).

My wildcard prediction. If Trump is vindicated by the Senate as a result of his impeachment trial that will be the core theme of his campaign. And every Trump supporter will crawl out from under every rock to wrong the right against their guy. As always it will be the independent voters will make the call. Sleepy Joe or Lizzie Borden will never beat him... just mho. The Dems have been more concerned with impeachment than finding the right candidate. The hard swing to left will be their downfall. I do not understand the rush to impeachment with the election one year away. I would think the powers that be in the Democrat party would be laser focused on how to defeat Trump on election day. I get what they are doing. The poker player in me knows they are going all in on the impeachment hand. I hope they know what they are doing.

[ggait]

As always it will be the independent voters will make the call.

That's a big misconception. The data says that there really aren't hardly any true independents.

17% of the population are "independents" who lean Dem and vote just like Dems. 13% of the population are "independents" who lean Rep and vote just like Reps. That's why the number of independents for/against impeachment are basically the same as the overall numbers -- Dems favor, Reps don't favor.

Only 7% of the population truly have no partisan lean. And those folks tend not to register or vote. The reason they have no partisan lean is that they aren't interested in politics.

The way you win is turning out your partisans/leaners while depressing turnout of the other base. In 2016, Dems stayed home or voted third party. In many cases because they doubted Trump could win. That's not going to happen in 2020.

If both Dems and Reps turn out, Dems win the popular vote by even more than they did in 2016. But Trump could draw the inside Electoral College straight again.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/14/politics ... index.html

[foreverlax]

Respectfully, Tulsi doesn't stand a chance, in the primary or in a general. She'll be gone after New Hampshire, unless someone convinces her to do an independent run.

Unfortunately for Tulsi, the Fanlax board community is the only demo in the entire U.S. that knows or cares about her. She's beyond irrelevant. Maybe she could team up with my personal favorite obscure candidate (CO's Bennet) so that together they could break the 4% mark.

The key takeaway from KY is that turn out was up -- BIGLY. 31% in 2015 vs. 42% in 2019. That's why the late polls were off -- they didn't model the turnout correctly. Turnout on both sides in 2020 is going to be HUGE and the particular Dem nominee is not going to matter all that much. Trump will turn out his base and he is also going to turn out the Dems.

Voting today is all about negative partisanship. Reps don't like Trump, but they hate Dems so much they'll vote for jerk like Trump. Unlike 2016 when Dems were unexcited or apathetic, in 2020 Dems will crawl over broken glass to vote that flaming a-hole out of office.

My liberal fool millenial kids feel the Bern, but they'd gladly vote for grandpa Joe in order to flip Trump the bird. I wouldn't pick Lizzie since she'd make it closer in the rust belt than it would be for Joe (who would get huge turnout).

I like Bennet from what I seen...I'd take any of the remaining governors.

[MDlaxfan76]

The Dems will not get Trump out of the WH with Joe or Lizzie, neither one will beat Trump. Lizzie comes across as an annoying screaching lunatic and Joe comes across as a guy who needs a nap.
Every time I see Tulsi I'm more impressed with her and I believe she can eat Trump's lunch. This is a very confident and sharp gal, nothing arrogant or artificial about her. The Dems need to get behind this gal, she's the real deal. HRC was a big a*s*shole long before she spread the BS about TG being a Russian tool, that should just confirm the fact for those who had any doubt about it. Tulsi is the gal you Dems need to get behind, your other jamoks aint gonna cut it.

I'm not going to argue with you about Tulsi, but she's nowhere close to being in the mix, so irrelevant to who will actually go against Trump.

I agree that Warren would be an enormous risk in the battleground states. Same for Sanders.

I don't agree that Biden would lose those states nor any of the blue states. I'm not thrilled with him though, don't know anyone who is...but he'd win.

I'd be much more excited about moderate, midwesterners Mayor Pete or Amy Klobuchar. Unfortunately, I don't think Klobuchar will be in the final mix, but Pete looks like a real possibility. I think he'd crush Trump, would be extremely difficult to touch other than with the shrinking base of voters that just hate any Dem.

I'd be ok with Booker or Harris. Both would run competent government. And both, like Pete and Amy, would represent the US credibly to the world.