2020 Elections - Trump FIRED

[old salt]

Jeh Johnson is a moderate (D) who'd get the black vote.

Not partisan enough & the open borders lobby would kill him (I almost used the L-word )

[jhu72]

There are two strategies that are possible. There is the Joe Biden strategy, rely on moderates and stolen working class voters to put you over the top. Joe Biden will not do worse than Hillary with all other demographics and can easily reclaim the three defecting blue collar states. Assuming the turnout is identical in terms of total numbers - Biden wins. Of course the turnout will not be identical, it is likely to be significantly higher because of the Trump effect. The non-Trump vote will be greater than last time. The only question is, are there hidden Trump voters that didn't show up last time, that will this time. I see no evidence for this last, but who knows, stranger things have happened.

The other strategy is the Warren strategy. Screw the moderates and pander to the left base. You lose the working class Biden would have brought back, most likely. You get more voters from the youngsters who don't vote. Trump gets his usual. The only question is does Warren turn off so many moderate voters to hand the election to Trump. If it was anyone but Trump, I would say this is a losing strategy. But Trump is more effective at motivating democratic leaning voters than he is motivating his own voters. So I don't know who wins this, but I think it is close.

The Biden strategy is tweek what was wrong last time and eek out a win. The Warren strategy is throw the bomb.

Of course neither of these are guaranteed to get the nomination.

[jhu72]

Jeh Johnson is a moderate (D) who'd get the black vote.

Not partisan enough & the open borders lobby would kill him (I almost used the L-word )

There is no open borders lobby, there is a lets do what makes sense while being fair, not punitive to those already here.

I don't see anyone other than the folks already announced getting the nomination. The nonsense about Hillary getting in is just that.

[youthathletics]

Interesting how the polls swing in a 24 hour cycle, then right at the end, he gives us a little 'tell' as if he is trying to persuade someone to jump in: https://www.instagram.com/p/B4BYUaunv8W ... C9FYG9H40/

[CU88]

Joe Biden flips on his self imposed ban on accepting super pac campaign funding. Further proof that his rap is as stale as week old Wonderbread. Joe, have a Kit-Kat and take a break, forever.

He's pulling ahead of the other Dems in polls.

Oh well. Can't say that the nation didn't try and tell the Dems about this stupidity last election.

I still think Uncle Joe has the best chance of any of the (D)'s to beat Trump,
...if he doesn't doze off or drool on himself.

I don't see anyone beating o d, or even him beating himself.

To make it close, a Perfect Storm would be:

d's going with an old fashion non offensive ticket, meaning an all white male pairing.

plus, they need a Never Trumper 3rd party to make some sort of self funded run.

plus plus, Obama needs to step in to energize the side line voters to get to the booth.

[dislaxxic]

I don't see anyone beating o d, or even him beating himself.

Seriously? Is this what you meant to say? You think o d has EXPANDED his base?? He "won" with a razor thin margin in 4 states...states that he now appears to be underwater in. Is the Dem base not fired up?

Just wondering if this is what you meant to say, CU...

..

[ggait]

There's three views/models for the 2020 election currently circulating.

Traditional 1 says Trump wins. Incumbent president, good economy.

Traditional 2 says Dems win. Trump's approval/favorable ratings too low to win.

Personally, I'm intrigued by the negative partisanship model which feels most current. Rachel Bitecofer at the Wason Center. Nailed it in 2018 and pretty consistent with 2016. The core of this model is that today's polarized voters vote primarily out of hate, not love. Republicans don't like Trump, but they support him because they hate Dems. And there's basically no persuadable voters.

In that model, the D nominee doesn't matter that much. Bitecofer says anyone other than Bernie would be fine. Only thing that can sway elections is turnout. After 2018, hard to see the 2020 Dems being complacent or tempted by third party candidates like in 2016. Dems are highly motivated to come out and vote against Trump. Most likely D and R turnout is big. If both turnout, Ds win because there's more Ds.

Current forecast has Dems at 278 (flipping PA, MI, WI). So the swing states (NC, FL, AZ, IA) don't matter.

Obviously, no one knows.

https://www.270towin.com/2020-election- ... edictions/

[jhu72]

There's three views/models for the 2020 election currently circulating.

Traditional 1 says Trump wins. Incumbent president, good economy.

Traditional 2 says Dems win. Trump's approval/favorable ratings too low to win.

Personally, I'm intrigued by the negative partisanship model which feels most current. Rachel Bitecofer at the Wason Center. Nailed it in 2018 and pretty consistent with 2016. The core of this model is that today's polarized voters vote primarily out of hate, not love. Republicans don't like Trump, but they support him because they hate Dems. And there's basically no persuadable voters.

In that model, the D nominee doesn't matter that much. Bitecofer says anyone other than Bernie would be fine. Only thing that can sway elections is turnout. After 2018, hard to see the 2020 Dems being complacent or tempted by third party candidates like in 2016. Dems are highly motivated to come out and vote against Trump. Most likely D and R turnout is big. If both turnout, Ds win because there's more Ds.

Current forecast has Dems at 278 (flipping PA, MI, WI). So the swing states (NC, FL, AZ, IA) don't matter.

Obviously, no one knows.

https://www.270towin.com/2020-election- ... edictions/

Yup, this is pretty much my model. The folks picking Trump are also using this model, but think Trump supporters have an "edge" in hate (because they did in 2016), maybe, but I don't think so. Of course those who think Trump wins also bolster their argument with traditional model #1, forgetting that last cycle that model broke down for the first time in modern times. This is likely to be the dirtiest most hate filled election of the modern era.

[dislaxxic]

Don't disagree with the models, really. I just think that many of the people that voted for the Con in 2016 because they wanted to give a "businessman" a chance, who felt apprehensive about the "establishment" Clinton and her over-hyped "corruption" ... these people are likely so embarrassed and pissed off at/about this Grifter that they will either stay home or maybe vote for a third party candidate. I agree that the Dem candidate matters, but i think that in a national election, we will see the revulsion with DOPUS come out in spades.

Not to mention, he lies or mis-directs every stinkin' time he opens his mouth. There is mucho Trump fatigue over this over-the-top embarrassment.

..

[jhu72]

Don't disagree with the models, really. I just think that many of the people that voted for the Con in 2016 because they wanted to give a "businessman" a chance, who felt apprehensive about the "establishment" Clinton and her over-hyped "corruption" ... these people are likely so embarrassed and ticked off at/about this Grifter that they will either stay home or maybe vote for a third party candidate. I agree that the Dem candidate matters, but i think that in a national election, we will see the revulsion with DOPUS come out in spades.

Not to mention, he lies or mis-directs every stinkin' time he opens his mouth. There is mucho Trump fatigue over this over-the-top embarrassment.

..

I also suspect there are a good number (not a majority but a significant number) of Orange Duce's original supporters who have opened their eyes and these are not showing up in any polls - yet. They are still hemming and hawing and saying they support Trump, but the bloom is off the rose and they are not likely to vote for him. They won't admit this publically, but this is how the white blue collar working class I grew up in behaves.

[a fan]

. Republicans don't like Trump, but they support him because they hate Dems.

This. This is the new Republican party. When you look at it from this perspective, everything their voters do makes total sense.

It's why they don't care that government is bigger than ever.

It's why they don't care that Trump didn't fix immigration, repeal Obamacare, build the wall, cut spending, lower the deficit....and on and on.

As I say, these people are ungovernable. They literally can't tell you what they want you to do. They can only tell you what they want you to be..and that answer is, they want their leaders to have a little R by their name.

It's also why they'll reelect Trump.

It's depressing. These are full grown adults that are making choices that will absolutely destroy their kids and grandkids lives...all so that they can "show the libs who's boss".

I fear for them. and yep, I pity them.

Because has anyone noticed that the election is in a year, and Trump's economically "forgotten voter" still doesn't have one single plan on the table designed to help them? Just as I said would happen. (like it was hard to figure out that was coming)

And the 1%ers and the coastal elite will shrug their shoulders, and cash the checks Trump is sending their way. Oh well.

[MDlaxfan76]

It’s indeed going to be ugly.

And the Trump side has shown that it very much understands how their most divisive, most incendiary messaging is exponentially magnified in reach through the algorithms of the various technology platforms.

They also have a base of followers on such platforms ready and willing to intensify that reach, regardless of any semblance of truth, indeed its all about the hate.

And, of course, they have made very clear that they welcome, indeed reward, foreign involvement. Both in disinformation campaigns and hacking, but maybe most importantly in false identity and technology bots.

Again, they understand the algorithms.

The Dems are handicapped in their current positioning as standing in contrast to the outrageous lying.

The question is whether enough Americans have become aware of and turned off by the outright lying, and will recognize the manipulation.

Or are folks so locked into their prior positions that they can’t back down now.

[ggait]

I also suspect there are a good number (not a majority but a significant number) of Orange Duce's original supporters who have opened their eyes and these are not showing up in any polls - yet.

But there's also data suggesting that many 2016 Trumpsters stayed home in 2018. Makes sense -- they are more Trump supporters than GOP supporters. So the base case assumption is that turnout on both sides will be big. So 2020 should wind up somewhere between 2016 (R high water mark at -2%) and 2018 (D high water mark at +8.6%). The question is exactly where it will fall between the two.

I've seen some estimates that Trump could still win the EC at -5% in the popular vote. If you convert the 2018 +8.6% to EC equivalent, it is 314D-224R with Dems flipping PA, MI, WI, IA, FL. As you start to dial down the gap, IA and FL go back to red. That's 278D-260R.

And the rust belt gets closer. If WI flips, 268D-270R.

Dems have to come out huge and run up a big tally to be safe in the EC. They can't bring a knife to the gun fight.

[jhu72]

. Republicans don't like Trump, but they support him because they hate Dems.

This. This is the new Republican party. When you look at it from this perspective, everything their voters do makes total sense.

It's why they don't care that government is bigger than ever.

It's why they don't care that Trump didn't fix immigration, repeal Obamacare, build the wall, cut spending, lower the deficit....and on and on.

As I say, these people are ungovernable. They literally can't tell you what they want you to do. They can only tell you what they want you to be..and that answer is, they want their leaders to have a little R by their name.

It's also why they'll reelect Trump.

It's depressing. These are full grown adults that are making choices that will absolutely destroy their kids and grandkids lives...all so that they can "show the libs who's boss".

I fear for them. and yep, I pity them.

Because has anyone noticed that the election is in a year, and Trump's economically "forgotten voter" still doesn't have one single plan on the table designed to help them? Just as I said would happen. (like it was hard to figure out that was coming) -- some, a not insignificant number have, more will. Their wives have most definitely noticed! These are the true economic Trump voter who didn't like Hillary or Trump and has been left behind. Not a large but nonetheless significant number. Just asking the question, "what would pop do?"

And the 1%ers and the coastal elite will shrug their shoulders, and cash the checks Trump is sending their way. Oh well.

[jhu72]

Bill Maher was on fire last night.

I got no where else to go - dem candidates PAY ATTENTION!

[youthathletics]

Bill Maher was on fire last night.

I got no where else to go - dem candidates PAY ATTENTION!

We've been trying to say the same thing for 3 plus years...and yet the left wants us to believe Trump colluded to win.. Last week Bill had a great point, crowdfund and raise money to buy Trump not to run again.....since he loves money so much, he may take it.

[jhu72]

Bill Maher was on fire last night.

I got no where else to go - dem candidates PAY ATTENTION!

We've been trying to say the same thing for 3 plus years...and yet the left wants us to believe Trump colluded to win. Last week Bill had a great point, crowdfund and raise money to buy Trump not to run again.....since he loves money so much, he may take it.

of course one rules out the other.

Hillary did not lose because she had off the wall largely irrelevant left wing policies, like Maher takes aim at. She lost because of bad fundamentals in campaigning, things like taking voters for granted.

[Peter Brown]

And the Trump side has shown that it very much understands how their most divisive, most incendiary messaging is exponentially magnified in reach through the algorithms of the various technology platforms.

They also have a base of followers on such platforms ready and willing to intensify that reach, regardless of any semblance of truth, indeed its all about the hate.

It is?

Good news:

-the economy
-jobs
-median incomes
-Middle East
-North Korea
-trade
-prison reform
-peace in general


That seems like a decent menu to choose from, and not an ounce of hate. Is your post possibly, slightly, hysteria-ridden?

[MDlaxfan76]

And the Trump side has shown that it very much understands how their most divisive, most incendiary messaging is exponentially magnified in reach through the algorithms of the various technology platforms.

They also have a base of followers on such platforms ready and willing to intensify that reach, regardless of any semblance of truth, indeed its all about the hate.

It is?

Good news:

-the economy
-jobs
-median incomes
-Middle East
-North Korea
-trade
-prison reform
-peace in general


That seems like a decent menu to choose from, and not an ounce of hate. Is your post possibly, slightly, hysteria-ridden?

Well, PB, like usual, you either misunderstand my logic or are purposely cutting away the context of what I wrote.

Let me lay it out for you again.
Social media algorithms 'reward' the most divisive, the most incendiary rhetoric.
It's the way the technology works.

It's not how I'd prefer it, but that's the reality of the technology.

And Trump and his minions understand this. They exploit it to the maximum, and they have positioned their messaging in such a way that they can lie and be rewarded by their followers rather than receive a negative response. Their followers have been conditioned to cheer the hate, the lies.

The Dems are (currently) at a disadvantage in this medium as they've strategically positioned themselves on the counter-side, the notion that they're truth-tellers, even squeaky clean (which they're not). So, they can't play the same game with the technology. Or at least haven't figured out how to do so in the Trumpism era.

Add to this that the Russians understand the medium as well, and they understand our Achilles heel of unfettered free political speech in the algorithm era...lies, anonymously told, get spread by wild fire by the algorithms because they get reaction...positive and negative. Lies are directed to be spread to those who, in common, have reacted to prior messages en masse.

And then, oh boy, they deploy armies of 'bots', false identities that automatically amplify the algorithms.

None of the above in any way is about the merits of the positive case that could be made for Trump or for his opponents for that matter. Positive stuff just doesn't get the sort of reaction that the algorithms detect and reward.

[MDlaxfan76]

Bill Maher was on fire last night.

I got no where else to go - dem candidates PAY ATTENTION!

We've been trying to say the same thing for 3 plus years...and yet the left wants us to believe Trump colluded to win. Last week Bill had a great point, crowdfund and raise money to buy Trump not to run again.....since he loves money so much, he may take it.

of course one rules out the other.

Hillary did not lose because she had off the wall largely irrelevant left wing policies, like Maher takes aim at. She lost because of bad fundamentals in campaigning, things like taking voters for granted.

Well, it might be fair to say that she lost those key swing states for a whole bunch of reasons, any one of which likely tips the scale the other way.

Whole bunch of those reasons are on her. No one else. Agreed.

But some were not.

Comey's late involvement, much less his earlier involvement probably was such a 'tip the scales' moment.

The Russian hacking, well timed dump, and social media interference likely also tipped the scales given the Access Hollywood tapes going conveniently back burner.

But this is all Monday morning quarterbacking.